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Monro, Inc. (MNRO)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 28, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Monro Muffler Brake’s Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter of Fiscal 2014. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. And later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded and may not be reproduced in whole or in any part without permission from the company. I would now like to introduce Ms. Leigh Parrish of FTI Consulting. Please go ahead.

Leigh Parrish

Management

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us on this morning’s call. I would just like to remind you that on this morning’s call, management may reiterate forward-looking statements made in today’s press release. In accordance with the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, I would like to call your attention to the risks and uncertainties related to these statements, which are more fully described in the press release and the company’s filings with the SEC. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not necessarily limited to, uncertainties affecting retail generally such as consumer confidence and demand for auto repair, risks relating to the leverage and debt service including sensitivity to fluctuations in interest rates, dependence on and competition within the primary market, in which the company’s stores are located, and the need for and cost associated with store renovations and other capital expenditures. The company undertakes no obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements that may be made to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. The inclusion of any statement in this call does not constitute an admission by Monro or any other person that the events or circumstances described in such statements are material. Joining us for this morning’s call from management are John Van Heel, President and CEO; Cathy D’Amico, CFO; and Rob Gross, Executive Chairman. With these formalities out of the way, I’d like to turn the call over to John. John, you may go ahead.

John W. Van Heel

Management

Thanks Leigh. Good morning and thank you for joining us on today’s call. We are pleased that you are with us to discuss our third quarter fiscal 2014 performance. After some brief opening remarks, I will review our results for the quarter, then provide you with an update on our key initiatives and outlook for the remainder of the year. I’ll then turn the call over to Cathy D’Amico, our Chief Financial Officer, who will provide additional details on our financial results. We delivered record sales in net income in the third quarter as we leveraged our strong operating model and benefited from more normalized winter weather with sales and net income growth of 14% and 36% respectively. Importantly, during the quarter, we continued to deliver on our key objectives of increasing traffic, benefiting from lower product costs, controlling operating expenses, generating strong sales and earnings contributions from our recent acquisitions and capitalizing on opportunities to complete additional acquisitions at attractive prices. Our performance is the result of our team’s consistent execution of our previous strategy and the initiatives that enable us to meet our industry in both strong and weak markets. While we benefited from more normalized weather trends in the third quarter, the macro and retail environment remain weak and negatively influenced consumer purchasing behavior resulting in a comparable store sales increase of 0.003%. We have seen budget conscious consumers defer repairs and focus on the most necessary items which has resulted in choppy sales across key categories throughout this year. Customers have also continued to trade down particularly in tires where direct imports were just over 30% of our tires sold versus mid-20s last year and mid-teens three years ago. In the third quarter, comparable store oil change traffic and tire units each increased 3% and comparable…

Operator

Operator

Yes, thank you. (Operator Instructions) And we’ll take our first question today from Bret Jordan with BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Bret D. Jordan – BB&T Capital Markets: A quick question on the tire costs, I guess the trajectory. Do you have a feeling for is the cost savings moderating or maybe what any more in on the savings side on the input?

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

It’s certainly as we indicated, within our inventory, we’ve got cost savings that will leak into the fourth quarter and into fiscal 2015 based on inventory turns, and we continue to see decreases going forward as we said input costs are down, supply is there, and we expect our volume to continue to grow. So we absolutely see more room there to decrease costs. Bret D. Jordan – BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. And I guess a question on the current quarter comp guidance. If the majority of January was up to until the storm, but you are guiding to something slightly better than flat for the quarter, is there some expectation that the trends continue to moderate or is that just not reflecting the first half of January in your guidance?

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

No, we just thought that it was better to be conservative in the comp, notwithstanding that recent change that we had here. We just thought it was conservative, which is consistent with how we approach the remainder of this year. Bret D. Jordan – BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. And then one last question and I will get off. A sort on big picture, as you look at the acquisitions out there and talk about Sears, if you physically look at that chain, how many of those Sears units are within your distribution network?

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

On those larger deals, we’ve been very successful doing what we’re doing, we view that as low risk. And frankly, we’ve also said we would be willing to look at other things larger than that. But those would come with the higher risks, so we would need to see the right price there for anything bigger. Certainly a big chunk of those are within our current geography. Bret D. Jordan – BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. Great, I appreciate it. Thank you.

John W. Van Heel

Management

Sure.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll take our next question from Rick Nelson with Stephens. Please go ahead. N. Richard Nelson – Stephens, Inc.: Thanks. Good morning.

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

Good morning. N. Richard Nelson – Stephens, Inc.: I’d like to ask you about the downward revision to the revenue guidance. We saw an upward revision in the comp. If you could talk about what drove that and the acquired stores, how they are performing?

John W. Van Heel

Management

Yes, the acquired stores again are outperforming, ahead of our plan. With regard to the sales revision, we took the high end down based upon what we saw in the third quarter and the start to the fourth quarter to reflect that conservatism. N. Richard Nelson – Stephens, Inc.: Gotcha. Also, I’m curious about the traffic in January with the improvement in the weather to the easy compares, why you don’t think that comp isn’t stronger at present, and is the weather potentially, in fact, a negative keeping people out of the stores?

John W. Van Heel

Management

Well, certainly, recently the weather hasn’t helped us. I am not here to make excuses about weather, we’ve talked about it for too long. But – and the winter weather is good for our business, and it has helped our business. In shorter timeframes, it can certainly disrupt store operations and keep people at home when temperatures are very low and wind chills are below freezing and all that. So we saw a little bit of that recently. N. Richard Nelson – Stephens, Inc.: Gotcha.

John W. Van Heel

Management

Outside of that, the weather has gotten us back flat, and it’s the consumer that we are looking to make the next move. N. Richard Nelson – Stephens, Inc.: Okay. And January is headed up or down or is sideways?

John W. Van Heel

Management

Traffic is slightly up in January, led by tires. N. Richard Nelson – Stephens, Inc.: I would also like to ask you about the acquisition pipeline. You mentioned the NDAs. I know in a typical year you target 10% acquisition growth. I think you are at 5% at this point, how you feel about that and looking out to next year, excluding I guess any transformational deals. And I’m curious on your thoughts – current thoughts there.

John W. Van Heel

Management

The pipeline is strong. We’ve got one more NDA than we had at the end of the second quarter, and it’s a matter of trying to get a meeting of the minds on price really. These guys are interested in selling, they are at the right time. Some of them are not showing the earnings increases that they would like to, to reconcile what we think is a fair price within the range that, that we pay. So we need to resolve those and as we do, we are completely ready to add on several of those acquisitions.

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

The number – we are at 5% this year, but we had a self-imposed six-month hiatus to make sure that we did a good job integrating the prior year’s acquisitions. And I certainly think that was time and effort well spent. N. Richard Nelson – Stephens, Inc.: That’s a good point, Rob. And then on the transformational opportunities, has that got a price differential, or is there more to it than that?

John W. Van Heel

Management

Well, I mean, like I said, we’ve been very successful in doing what we’ve been doing. We view it as low risk to continue to grow in our markets and in contiguous areas to our markets. And so anything that’s broader, would come with more risk and more reward, we need to balance that and we would have to be – have to be the right price.

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

As we said before, I wouldn’t own us in hopes of a transformational deal. N. Richard Nelson – Stephens, Inc.: And thanks very much and good luck.

John W. Van Heel

Management

Sure, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll take our next question from Anthony Deem with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Anthony J. Deem – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.: Hi, good morning.

John W. Van Heel

Management

Good morning.

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

Good morning. Anthony J. Deem – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.: Right. You mentioned that you see decreases going forward on the tire side and as input costs are down, the supply is there, and certainly as your volume grows. So you think you can decrease costs. I was just curious. Are you able to quantify the benefit you might expect for fiscal 2015 overall? It seems as though that the most recent slate of tire cost reductions might anniversary by fiscal 2Q. So any thoughts there?

John W. Van Heel

Management

Yes, I think we gave that we gave you some general guidance on how do we see tire costs moving down and saying that we think that the point at which we get EPS contribution will be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 1% comp versus the 2% to 2.5% that we’ve needed. Now this year, now we are operating even lower than that, that is I still think there is a lot of opportunity out there, but we wanted to at least indicate that we see some continued help there. Anthony J. Deem – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.: And then I was hoping you could comment on margins and specifically operating margins. We are obviously hitting this period of lower tire cost contributions from acquisitions and good cost controls. And I guess, what I’m wondering is, and as you think about fiscal 2015, can you identify what the major tailwinds are versus the major headwinds?

John W. Van Heel

Management

Yes, I think the major tailwinds are tire costs, we will continue to help. And for us, the major headwinds are things like Obamacare and the consumer. But in terms of – another significant tailwind obviously will be another year of contribution from our fiscal 2013 and fiscal 2014 acquisition. So on the headwind side, Obamacare and the consumer, on the tailwind side, you have tire costs coming down, you have acquisitions. And frankly the winter weather should help us in terms of sales in the spring and when we come around to next year in the fall certainly the winter, we’ve had this year will be on the minds of consumers even earlier, I think than it was this year. So again, that weather helps our business. Anthony J. Deem – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.: Okay, thank you.

John W. Van Heel

Management

Sure, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next is Scott Stember with Sidoti & Co. Please go ahead. Scott L. Stember – Sidoti & Co. LLC: Good morning.

John W. Van Heel

Management

Good morning. Scott L. Stember – Sidoti & Co. LLC: I jumped on the call late, so I apologize if you have answered these already. But could you just remind us what the tire comps that you are going up against in the fourth quarter and throughout maybe the next couple of quarters?

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

The tire comp is down three in the fourth quarter of – was down three in the fourth quarter of last year. It was up 1% in the first quarter of this year and down 16% in the second quarter. Scott L. Stember – Sidoti & Co. LLC: Okay, got you. And, again, if you mentioned this, I apologize. But can you talk about percentage of your tires that are private label now versus a year ago, and could you possibly comment on what that percentage could be by the end of the year?

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

Sure, we said that the percentage of import tires in terms of sales was just over 30% that is up from the mid-20s last year. And with regard to where that can go, we managed the business to make money and we believe that after several years of significant inflation on tire prices that we believe we’re delivering a value to the consumer with these import tires, 33 tires that we can offer to consumers at an attractive price. Again, if you think about this consumer that’s under a lot of pressure, we think that makes a lot of sense and consumers are building with their wallets. They are obviously buying these and seeing value there. So we are not going to place a necessarily a limit there. We’ll continue to push that, and I think, as you look at the broader picture certainly that comes at the expense of other tiers we could be selling. So if you look at branded manufacturers and what they are looking to do and how long they allow us to and others like us to drive these import tires at the expense of tires they could be selling. Scott L. Stember – Sidoti & Co. LLC: Okay. So it’s fair to assume that we will probably see a continuation of the trend of the sales growth lagging the unit growth of tires at least for the foreseeable future?

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

Yes. In the first quarter of our current fiscal year, we were up in the higher 20%s. In Q2, we were just short of 30%, right around 30%. So we are going to be anniversarying some higher rates there, which I think will mute the impact and sales side of things, as well as, anniversarying some of the pressure that was more prevalent early in the year on tire prices. That will start to anniversary in our first quarter. So we’ll experience some stability there will – you will see that effect potentially if you believe it. Scott L. Stember – Sidoti & Co. LLC: Gotcha. That’s all I have. Thank you so much for taking my questions.

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

Sure. Thanks, Scott.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll now go to Peter Keith with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead. Jon Berg – Piper Jaffray, Inc.: Great, thanks. Congratulations on a nice quarter, guys. This is John Berg on for Peter. I know you haven’t specifically guided fiscal year 2015 yet. You have provided some commentary on how you are thinking about some things moving into fiscal 2015. But if you kind of weigh out and balance the impact of this winter weather versus the condition of your core consumer right now, how do you expect that to play out over the next six months, and which categories do you expect to see the biggest benefit?

John W. Van Heel

Management

Yes. As I said, we’ve described pressure on the consumer as a key driver in our business and what’s happened in our business over the last two years really and the weather was a piece of it. The weather certainly has helped us. And we are hopeful that some of the strength we’ve seen at different times during the year in categories is an indication that the consumer is going to be coming back. And I think our next natural inflection point in timing would be the spring season coming off a pretty harsh winter when consumers will have a lot of part failures and that we will typically have off of a tough winter. So I think that’s how we would see it in April and May. Jon Berg – Piper Jaffray, Inc.: Okay. And then I know you are certainly not using weather as an excuse here. And it certainly benefited your business here in Q3 and seems to be in Q4 as well, too. But would it be fair to say in Q3, I mean you had more store closures year-over-year due to the weather?

John W. Van Heel

Management

Yes, I mean we didn’t highlight we – again, we don’t highlight those types of things typically within the quarter and last year very significant. So that’s probably it’s fair to say because we certainly had worse weather this year than last, but we didn’t think it was significant enough to highlight. Jon Berg – Piper Jaffray, Inc.: Okay, great. And then just one last quick one. If I didn’t catch it, did you give the comps by month?

John W. Van Heel

Management

No, the comps by month were October was down 2.6%, November was up 2.6% and December was up a 10%. Jon Berg – Piper affray, Inc.: Great. Thanks a lot guys. Good luck in Q4.

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

All right, thank you.

John W. Van Heel

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Now we’ll take a next question from Michael Montani with ISI Group. Please go ahead. Michael D. Montani – International Strategy & Investment Group LLC: Hey guys, thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about first a housekeeping question. Can you provide the sales mix by category for the quarter?

John W. Van Heel

Management

Sure. Sales mix by category for the quarter, brakes was 13%, exhaust was 3%, steering was 9.9%, tires was 49% and maintenance was 26% and don’t hold me to the rounding. Michael D. Montani – International Strategy & Investment Group LLC: Got you, okay. And then just in total, on traffic and ticket for the quarter, I understand traffic was up. Was it basically up 3% like the oil change/tire units, or was it a little lighter than that?

John W. Van Heel

Management

No, traffic was up less than that and ticket was down slightly. Michael D. Montani – International Strategy & Investment Group LLC: Okay. And then just within the tire category, in particular, can you just talk about how much ASP was versus mix in terms of the ticket pressure that you saw?

John W. Van Heel

Management

Sure. In this quarter, it was more mix and trade down than it was average selling price. Michael D. Montani – International Strategy & Investment Group LLC: And thus my follow-up question was just to understand basically the competitive dynamics that you might be seeing out there. As you head into the fourth quarter, the guidance seems to imply gross margin is better, but maybe sort of similar to this one, although the compares are a lot easier. Do you see maybe some incremental competition, or is there an incremental step up in tires to mix that would impact that? How should we think about, you guys typically want to increase prices, so how should we think about that?

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

Sure Mike, I mean I think the guidance for Q4 is we were nine months of a zero comps. So why go out there, why not have the opportunity to do better. Certainly, the weather has been cooperating. We think the big upside of the weather is going to be April and May. But I mean, how much to stretch when you got nine months under your belt of zero. Michael D. Montani – International Strategy & Investment Group LLC: Right. Just from a competitive standpoint strictly, though, it sounds like it’s pretty rational out there. I mean, is that a fair way to think about it, or how would you guys categorize it?

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

Yes. I would say it’s more rational than it was last year. I think people are hoping to make more money. We think we are holding our share based on looking at seven NDAs and how those guys are doing. And again, I think our margin, we are about the business model and improving our operating margin. And as John said, we took some reductions in operating costs that would show up as a percentage of sales and reduce the advertising. We are not going to advertise. We are not going to get significantly promotional at a time where, in our view, the consumer is not shopping and it’s the softest volume months of the year. We will save our powder, and we’ll see what the consumer has to say based on our traffic come April and May. Michael D. Montani – International Strategy & Investment Group LLC: Okay, thanks guys.

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

Thank you.

John W. Van Heel

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we have time for one more question today and that question will come from Brian Sponheimer with Gabelli & Company. Please go ahead. Brian Sponheimer – Gabelli & Company: Hi everyone. Happy New Year.

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

Happy New Year.

John W. Van Heel

Management

Happy New Year. Brian Sponheimer – Gabelli & Company: I just want to go back to just the acquisition pipeline. And presumably, as you guys get bigger, you are going to need bigger targets in order to maintain that growth rate. Rob, you were very clear in saying that we should have known you or recommend you in the hopes of a transformational deal. But in the event something were to come around, that would be the right price and the right size, would you all ever consider using your stock as a currency if the transaction was that significant?

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

Yes. Sure, I mean again, our risk profile is to be conservative and anything big, I don’t think we would be looking to leverage up to the point where we were doing all cash deals. Brian Sponheimer – Gabelli & Company: Okay. But presumably if there was a distressed seller, the stock might be an appropriate currency for you to look down?

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

If we think the stock is reasonably priced. Brian Sponheimer – Gabelli & Company: All right, all right. Thank you very much.

Robert G. Gross

Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude our question-and-answer session. Gentlemen, I will turn it back for any additional or closing remarks.

John W. Van Heel

Management

Thank you all for your time this morning. We continue to make a lot of progress on margins and acquisitions in a weak consumer sales environment. We are committed to profitable growth and expect positive fourth quarter results in a strong next year. We appreciate your continued support and the efforts of all of our employees that work hard everyday to take care of our customers. Thanks and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. And I would like to thank everyone for your participation today and that does conclude our conference.