Earnings Labs

Monro, Inc. (MNRO)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, May 22, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Monro Muffler Brake’s Earnings Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2014. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. (Operator Instructions). And as a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from the company. I would now like you to introduce Ms. Leigh Parrish, FTI Consulting. Please go ahead.

Leigh Parrish

Management

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us on this morning’s call. I would just like to remind you that on this morning’s call, management may reiterate forward-looking statements made in today’s press release. In accordance with the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, I would like to call your attention to the risks and uncertainties related to these statements, which are more fully described in the press release and the company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not necessarily limited to, uncertainties affecting retail generally such as consumer confidence and demand for auto repair, risks relating to the leveraging debt service including sensitivity to fluctuations and interest rates, dependence on and competition within the primary market, in which the company’s stores are located, and the need for and costs associated with store renovations and other capital expenditures. The company undertakes no obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements that may be made to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. The inclusion of any statement in this call does not constitute an admission by Monro or any other person that the events or circumstances described in such statements are material. Joining us for this morning’s call from management are John Van Heel, President and CEO; Cathy D’Amico, CFO; and Rob Gross, Executive Chairman. With these formalities out of the way, I’d like to turn the call over to John Van Heel. John, you may begin.

John Van Heel

Management

Thanks Leigh. Good morning and thank you for joining us on today’s call. We are pleased that you are with us to discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal 2014 performance. After some brief opening remarks, I will review our results for the quarter and then provide you with an update on our key initiatives and outlook for the new fiscal year. I’ll then turn the call over to Cathy D’Amico, our Chief Financial Officer, who will provide additional details on our financial results. As we look back at our performance throughout fiscal 2014, I am pleased with our team’s consistent execution of our proven strategy and the initiatives that enabled us to remain an industry leader in any macroeconomic environment. Throughout the year, we continued to deliver on our key objectives of increasing traffic, expanding gross margins through lower product costs, carefully managing operating expenses, and driving strong sales and earnings contributions from recent acquisitions while capitalizing an opportunities to complete additional acquisitions at attractive prices. As a result, we were able to deliver record fourth quarter sales and net income with operating margin expansion of 260 basis points and bottom-line growth of 47%. Further, full year sales were a record $831 million, an increase of 14% versus the prior year and we generated net income growth of 28% to $54.5 million and 140 basis points of operating margin improvement. Importantly, we were able to deliver robust profit growth for the fourth quarter and full year in the face of a difficult consumer spending environment. Fourth quarter comparable store sales were down 1.3%, while full year comparable store sales were down 0.5%. While we saw some whether related disruption to our business in the fourth quarter we are not complaining about it. We see -- we expect to see the…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions). We will now take our first question from Bret Jordan, BB&T Capital Markets. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Good morning.

John Van Heel

Management

Good morning. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: If we look at the whether impact in the quarter, is there a way to sort of back in the envelope maybe through our outright store closure days what its impact on top was and I guess given the visibility you have in peers performance maybe through the NDAs or just general market intelligence, how did you traffic compare to the balance of the market in the quarter?

Rob Gross

Analyst

Yes. If you look at the store closures and remove the impact of that, our sales would have been about flat. So there was a fairly sizeable impact on the quarter. And in terms of traffic, judging I guess my best way to judge is the 10 NDAs that we have. I think we are gaining share. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. And then I guess we look at tires and your expectation of tire pricing continues to go in your favor. Is that skewed towards the import or are you beginning to see some price concessions or an acceleration of price concessions on the RMA of the branded product?

Rob Gross

Analyst

I would say yes on both. It will still be higher on the import, but we are seeing increased concessions from the branded guys. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. And then one last question. Could you give us a feel maybe what the price delta is now if you were to say the average branded products versus the import product with the difference you are seeing on retailers?

Rob Gross

Analyst

Yes, it's larger than it has been in the past. Sometimes I feel like we're the only guys answering these kind of questions and I really don't want to open up the whole playbook. It is definitely larger than it has been. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. All right. Thank you.

Rob Gross

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next, we'll take our question from Rick Nelson from Stephens.

Rick Nelson - Stephens

Analyst

Hey just kind of…

John Van Heel

Management

Hey Rick.

Rick Nelson - Stephens

Analyst

For the current quarter plus to, I think that’s the best we have seen it going back down 12 quarters then you point out compares get easier as the quarter progresses, I mean year progresses, are there big memorial day promos plan this year that maybe you wanted to kind of plan a year ago, because of the more favorable weather conditions? And I guess how do you see that to make for the quarter shaking out?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. Well, in terms of Memorial Day, I don’t see an awful lot more activity than has been out there in the past, certainly with the increased traffic and the service business responding pretty well. We’ve always said that as we look at marketing, we’re going to fish when the fish are biting and this sort of starts to line up like that. And as we move through the year if we continue to see some strength, we’ll make investments there. But for the rest of the quarter, our comps within the quarter get much easier, June coming off of this plus three last year, midway through the quarter, we ended up reporting a plus one for the quarter, so June really remains an opportunity for us.

Rick Nelson - Stephens

Analyst

And John, the quarter is more heavily weighted right to May and June, April is relatively small?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes, it’s slightly smaller.

Rick Nelson - Stephens

Analyst

And the guidance that you’re providing on the acquisitions, now $0.27 to $0.30; I think last call you had talked about $0.24 to $0.30. You’re more optimistic there. I’m just curious what is driving that and is it the improvement in the comps?

John Van Heel

Management

Well, I view it as much as anything as June ‘15. The $0.24 to $0.30 we talked about with the fiscal ‘13 acquisitions, there will be some accretion as well from the ‘14 acquisitions, but that is consistency off of outperformance in fiscal 2014 on those acquisitions. That’s part of [why we deal]. We said 20 to -- we had an initial range of 15 to 20, we wanted 20 to 22 and those acquisitions for fiscal ‘13 deals contributed $0.24 in fiscal ‘13.

Rick Nelson - Stephens

Analyst

So, I was just curious how you see the year shaping up from an acquisition standpoint. Your long term target is 10%, do you see this as a bigger year or smaller year?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. I think with the number of NDAs we have right now, we are looking at potentially an above average year this year. I think the market - with the market being choppy out there and all of these guys continuing to get older as we all are, there is more interest out there. As the tougher the market, the better we do in acquisitions.

Rick Nelson - Stephens

Analyst

Good. Good to hear. Thanks a lot and good luck.

John Van Heel

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And I will take our next from Anthony Deem from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Anthony Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Hi, good morning.

John Van Heel

Management

Hi, good morning.

Anthony Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

As it relates to the $0.27 to $0.30 acquisition accretion outlook does that include the -- any assumed dilution from the most recent acquisition, or is that separate?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes, it incorporates what we’ll have from these couple of deals here that we just announced.

Rob Gross

Analyst

But nothing in the future, Anthony. I mean all of our numbers include the deals that John announced today in the core business and then anything we do in the future will responsive including the increased sales that we will get from them.

Anthony Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay, helpful. And then I appreciate the color on the weather impact, sounds like about 100 to 150 basis points. Can you just talk to the cadence of your same-store comp in the quarter? January was previously said to be slightly positive, so perhaps February and March down over 100 basis points, can you give any color on that? Thanks.

John Van Heel

Management

Right. January ended up being flat. If you remember, we are up in the kind of about last right at the end of the quarter. So January was flat; February was down one and March was down two.

Anthony Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. And then on the first quarter same-store guide up to the 3% versus up 2% quarter-to-date, so it seems like you expect to see some slight acceleration final week of May and into June; it seems like that's all driven by comps and is that fair estimate?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. I mean it was -- what we're reacting to there is the latter part of last year's first quarter was weak.

Anthony Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Right.

John Van Heel

Management

It was negative. So that seems to me based upon what we've seen for the first seven weeks that does that opportunity for the latter part of the quarter.

Anthony Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

And then shifting gears on the tire cost outlook. Beyond the second quarter of this year, it sounds like there is some opportunity for some slight benefit from where were tire costs probably not to the magnitude of what we're seeing last year but relative to the down 20% plus on imports, down mid to high single-digits on branded costs, can you give us a sense for what those numbers will look like in fiscal 2015?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. I think you might see flat to down in other 5 points or something. Again, I'm not really interested in being the only guy out there offering whole a bunch of details about how we're trying to deliver results here.

Anthony Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Understand, great. Thank you.

John Van Heel

Management

Thank you.

Rob Gross

Analyst

Yes. Anthony, I think we're very comfortable with our guidance.

Anthony Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Great.

John Van Heel

Management

Thanks.

Anthony Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from James Albertine from Stifel.

James Albertine - Stifel

Analyst

Great. Thanks and good morning everyone.

John Van Heel

Management

Good morning.

James Albertine - Stifel

Analyst

First, I just wanted to ask for a sort of a reminder or refresh of course on how your stores flow into the comp base because looking at 875 to 905 guidance for next year and if I'm correct, I think your sort of -- 140 or so stores that you added a couple of years back should start to be flowing through now. So, I'm just surprised that there is not more of a jump I suppose relative to the 831 you reported for the end of the fiscal year.

John Van Heel

Management

You are absolutely correct in how the guidance and how the stores enter the comp, all of the stores that were acquired or opened in our fiscal ‘13 will be in our comp base or are in our comp base for fiscal ‘15. And again, the sales guidance reflects the 1% to 4% comp and some additional sales from the fiscal ‘14 acquisitions and the deals that we just announced today.

James Albertine - Stifel

Analyst

Got you. I am sorry.

John Van Heel

Management

But with regard to the acquisitions being a part of the comp base or just really generally where they are this year, last year we -- there is an awful lot of work that goes into that operational transition and that’s really the hallmark of last year [would buy] much of that. And so as I look at 1% to 4% comp, certainly the acquisition stores represent part of that upside there because last year for at least part of the year they’re worried about procedures and computer changes and some things like that that tend to take a little bit out of sales. So, that represents some of the upside within the 1% to 4%.

James Albertine - Stifel

Analyst

Got you. If I could just have one quick follow-up on the 10 NDAs that you announced, if I recall last quarter we were talking about the 7 or so NDAs you alluded to 5 to 40 stores per NDA. I was wondering if you could give us an update on the sort of the store count per NDA at this point.

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. That range applies to this group as well. So, it’s very consistent.

James Albertine - Stifel

Analyst

Okay. Very helpful. Thanks again.

John Van Heel

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll take our next question from Michael Montani from ISI Group.

Michael Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

Hey guys, good morning.

John Van Heel

Management

Good morning.

Michael Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

I wanted if you talk about first off the mix percentages, can you just tell us as a percentage of sales what the various categories were for this quarter?

John Van Heel

Management

Sure. For the quarter brakes was 14, exhaust 4, steering 10, tires 44, and 29 for maintenance services.

Michael Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

And then -- okay, fair enough. On the tire take it down roughly 3% for this past quarter, was that basically all trade down is there also some deflation on like for like tires and how do you guys see that dynamic playing out as we move ahead through this year?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. The majority of that is trade down and there is a small piece of deflation in there. But for the year, as we said that same kind of metric relates to the year and it has been more trade down than price all year for us.

Michael Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

And I guess when you put the 1% to 4% comp guidance out, is there any way to think about inflation overall in that number, is it basically assuming traffic trends kind of maintain and then you get some benefit from that or how should we think about traffic and ticket?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. I think you are going to see traffic up and ticket somewhat pressured by this overall trade down, I mean the trade down we’ll see through the year with us at 32 and we’re going to be in the higher 30 or 40 this year on the import tires. We are going to see some continued pressure from that on reported dollar sales, our job is to sell more tire units at more money gross profit per tire. That’s what we are focused on.

Michael Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

Great. And just the last question I had was on affordable care act which you mentioned at the opener, I think last quarter you guys had spoken to maybe 2 million to 3 million type range of impact from that. Is that still the right way to look at that particular cost element heading into this year and some of the initiatives you have to offset it please? Cathy D’Amico: Yes. Impact our fourth quarter of fiscal 2015 which would be the January through March quarter is when we'll have to be so compliance and that figure, the 2 million to 3 million for a full year or a quarter of that for fiscal 2015 would be the right number.

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. In terms of the initiatives, I know we've talked a little bit about it, again not wanting give too much out about what we're doing. But we did make, we have made a push over the last year to focus on our best people and have those folks earning more money, the result of that is better customer service, better sales, better operations. One of the net results of that is we can do it with a few less heads and that helps things like the Affordable Care Act and that's really how we've approached at least part of this.

Michael Montani - ISI Group

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks guys. Good luck.

John Van Heel

Management

Thank you. Cathy D’Amico: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Scott Stember from Sidoti & Company. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: Good morning.

John Van Heel

Management

Good morning.

Rob Gross

Analyst

Hey Scott. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: Outside of tires, are there any planned price increases in any of the other categories which could help margins this year?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. We will put through a 1% to 2% price increase here in the spring, we started that already. And again on the tire side, we've talked about that a little bit. So that price increase will touch all other categories. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: Okay, great. And just going to back to the commentary about what you have seen so far in the first quarter of '15. I think you said that tires were down 2% so far, is that on units or on actual comp?

John Van Heel

Management

No, that is the actual comp sales, units are positive. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: Okay. And….

John Van Heel

Management

We'll give you the details of that at the end of the quarter. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: Got you. And just what you were saying before that the first part of the quarter, I guess April faced more difficult comps, given that fact plus the fact that more consumers are coming into the shops with tires excessively warrant. Could you talk about the expectations as the quarter progresses on potential acceleration for tire sales?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. I think that tire sales like other category are still impacted by consumer that's under pressure. We see it in the accessing of our value price tire offering. And I think with higher units and some strength on the service side of the business during the April and May, all of those things are part of the consumer deferral that has been higher and lasted longer than we would have expected. And we've always said that after a tough winter, we would expect to see some strength in sales in the spring, and I think we're seeing that. June was down last year, so I think there is real opportunity there. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: And just going back to that could you just remind us last year's first quarter, what the comps were by months just so we have a better framework of what we're looking at? Cathy D’Amico: Yes, I have that. Last year’s first quarter, we were up 3% in April, we were up 1.1% in May and down 3% in June. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: Okay, great. And just last question, the acquisition that you announced today up in Michigan as you are the last year plus starting to go outside of your normal contiguous footprint, will this deal once again be supplied by the traditional Monro distribution systems or are there any plans to depart from that as you start to grow past year at usual footprint?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. It will be supplied by the traditional Monro footprint. We deliver not far from where these stores are right now. And we’ve been going outside of our footprint for several years now and we really look for the right opportunities to do that. An example we often point to is St. Louis. We run enough stores out there, was outside of our footprint but we saw a real hedge and we would have some higher distribution but we had real-estate fixed costs which were very advantageous out there that more than offset that. As we pointed out in the script today, we’re buying the locations for all of these stores up in Michigan which again brings in that kind of a cost hedge despite the fact that these stores are not within our existing footprint of distribution. So there is a natural hedge where we often look for that in these types of deals. And that’s what drives profitability. Scott Stember - Sidoti & Company: Got you. And that’s all I have. Thank you. Cathy D’Amico: Thank you.

John Van Heel

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). And we’ll take our next question from Bret Jordan from BB&T Capital Markets. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Hi. Just follow-up to the…

Rob Gross

Analyst

(Inaudible). Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: I can’t, never enough. As a follow-up to that last question, I guess as we look at the growth in NDAs, is this expansion upto 10 because you’re looking further outside the existing market or most of these within the footprint?

John Van Heel

Management

It is -- we’ve always had within the footprint or contiguous and all of these are fitting, continuing to fit within that. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. And then one last question as it relates to import mix, this 40% target; is there a maximum you don’t go above in import or as long as the market wants more of it, you are going to sell more of it?

John Van Heel

Management

Yes. I think we are going to let the consumers define that. Certainly I would love to sell everybody very high end Michelin tires but not everybody has got $200 a tire. So we’re going to let the consumers define where we go there. And for us, it’s perfectly fine where we are at. Bret Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And it appears there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to the speakers for any additional closing remarks.

John Van Heel

Management

Thank you. Thank you all for your time this morning. We continue to make progress on sales, margins and acquisitions in a weak consumer sales environment. We remain committed to profitable growth and expect the strong year this year. We appreciate your support and the efforts of our employees; they work hard to take care of our customers every day. Thanks and have a nice day.

Operator

Operator

And that concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation.