Earnings Labs

Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN)

Q2 2009 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 11, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Vail Resorts Fiscal 2009 Second Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Rob Katz, CEO of Vail results. Please go ahead sir.

Rob Katz

Management

Thank you, operator good morning everyone. I would like to welcome you to the Vail Resorts Fiscal 2009 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Simultaneous Web Cast. Both are open to the public and press at large. I am Rob Katz Chief Executive Officer of Vail Resorts. Joining me on the call this morning is Jeff Jones our Chief Financial Officer. Before I get into the discussion of our results, let me remind you that we are using the term reported EBITDA to report earnings for each of our operating segments, namely Mountain, Lodging, and Resort, which is a combination of the mountain and lodging segments, and real estate. The Company defines reported EBITDA as segment net revenues less segment operating expenses plus segment equity investment income and for the Real Estate segment plus gain on sale of real property. The Company also uses the term net debt which is defined as long-term debt plus long-term debt due within one year, less cash and cash equivalents. Complete reconciliations of reported EBITDA other non-GAAP financial measures can be found in this morning’s earnings release and on the vailresorts.com website in the investor relations section. I also need to mention that comments made during this conference call other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements that are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Certain risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Investors are directed to the risks and uncertainties described in the documents filed by the company with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended July 31, 2008, and Form 10-Q for the second quarter fiscal 2009. In addition, the Safe Harbor language…

Jeff Jones

Management

Thanks Rob and good morning everyone. Earlier this morning we released our earnings for our second fiscal quarter ended January 31, 2009. Also, this morning we filed our Form 10-Q for the second quarter. Turning to the highlights of our second quarter results, as Rob mentioned our resort segment results, which includes a combination of our Mountain and Lodging segments were negatively impacted by the current economic conditions. Starting with our mountain segment, the economic challenges drove lower destination visitation and also resulted in overall lower lift ticket revenue, despite the favorable impact of the increased Season Pass sales. Additionally, we saw a decline in ancillary business revenue and contribution. Lift ticket revenue decreased 5.1% driven by a 19.3% decrease in skier visits excluding Season Pass holders partially offset by higher Season Pass revenue as well as a 4.6% increase in ETP excluding Season Pass holders. Our Season Pass revenue increased 18.2% and effective pass price increased 8.4% driven by the strength of our Season Pass program and the introduction of the Epic Season Pass. With the increase in Season Pass visits causing the overall decline in effective ticket price or ETP of 4.4%. Our overall visitation was supported by strong pass visitation, especially from the new Epic Season Pass holders who have skied more on average per pass season a day. The significant increase in visits from Season Pass holders, which partially caused the offsetting decline in other visits, was primarily driven by the introduction of the Epic Season Pass. Additionally, the mix of destination to in state guest visits was approximately 52% to 48% respectively in the current year quarter, compared to approximately 59% to 41% respectively in the prior year quarter. Colorado skier visits were up 0.95 while total skier visits were down0.8%. Skier visits were up…

Rob Katz

Management

Thanks, Jeff. Now turning to our calendar 2009 resort capital expenditure plan. Over the past four years the Company has made significant investments in resort assets to enhance the overall guest experience. Highlighting several of these recent major discretionary capital expenditures, the projects have included the Keystone River Run gondola, the Breckenridge gondola, two new high speed chairlifts at Vail’s, chairs 10 and 14, Heavenly’s high speed Olympic Express chair lift, Beaver Creek’s Buckaroo Express gondola, and the Ranch, a new children’s ski school on Mountain check-in dining building, the Osprey at Beaver Creek renovation and new central reservations and web platform development. Additionally, the Company has recently benefited significant resort assets that have come from the Company’s real estate development activity including the Arrabelle project which included the Arrabelle Hotel, spa, private club, skier services and commercial space and the Vail Front Door project which include the Lodge at Vail spa and suite rooms, new skier service area, and Vail Mountain Club. Over the past three calendar years of 2006 through 2008 the Company has expended close to $300 million in resort capital expenditures excluding the resort assets that have come from our real estate activities. In recognition of the current economic climate and given these significant investments that the Company has made in resort assets over the past several years, the Company expects to spend approximately $50 to $60 million of resort capital expenditures in calendar 2009, including $32 to $37 million for maintenance capital expenditures that the Company believes are necessary to maintain the high quality appearance and level of service at the Company’s five ski resorts and through out its hotels. Highlights of the maintenance capital expenditures include snow cat replacements, lift upgrades, snow making equipment, lodging furniture, fixture and equipment, and rental equipment fleet capital.…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Felicia Hendrix with Barclays Capital.

Felicia Hendrix - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Rob you actually just wrapped up the call saying that you think 34% of lift revenues comes from Season Pass in ’09, but what I am wondering is a lot of the pass sales last year occurred before things started to deteriorate in September and I’m just wondering where you’re getting your confidence from that you’re going to get a lot of these pass holders to renew for this coming season?

Rob Katz

Management

Two things, one is I don’t think I really commented per se on what sales would be for next year. I think what we are saying though is that we have seen a tremendous amount of enthusiasm from the holders of these Epic Season Passes this year. Based on a lot of our research with them we actually do believe that there is a high intent to return. We also did sell a pretty big chunk of our Epic Passes, and our Colorado Passes for that matter, after September of last year to the entire fault time period. I think what we’re seeing this year, in terms of the higher pass usage at our resorts its that people are really purchasing these passes and using that as their full vacation experience for the entire winter and I think they feel like they are getting a tremendous value from that. I guess that is what gives us confidence, but we are not making any projections at this point in terms of what pass sales will be like for the ‘09/’10 season yet.

Felicia Hendrix - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Okay and then moving on, I am wondering how responsive your destination visitors have been to the promotions out there. I know you guys are doing a lot, but I am wondering if you think there are some other things you could do to encourage destination visitation or if the current promotions and discounts are meeting those needs.

Rob Katz

Management

I think what we’re finding is that the biggest driver of getting people to make a decision to come to visit us right now, in terms of those who are looking for a deal, is really lodging. There is no question that we do packaging in either lift tickets or ski school, or other products. With that, the lodging is the primary driver and then airfare. I think we’ve certainly been fortunate this year that airfare has come down through the entire season. I think that’s helped somewhat offset the huge headwinds that we’ve been facing from the macro economic environment, but I think lodging is the primary driver and so we are constantly – we’ve been out every week with new promotions, new opportunities for people to come whether that was the holidays on us, or spring break on us, or ski free, stay free. I mean, we are just constantly promoting and hitting that drum. What we are seeing is that people are waiting until the very last minute, sometimes within the last two weeks, and then looking around at the best deal and making a decision. Obviously for those destination folks who have already purchased a pass we know they are coming. But, even getting them out for another trip, even if they are not paying for more skiing, is still important to us, because it does help drive some of the other ancillary businesses and our lodging business.

Felicia Hendrix - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Thank you and finally I was wondering if you could give us an update in terms of sales of real estate at One Ski Hill Place and also the Ritz Carlton?

Rob Katz

Management

There have been no new sales at the Ritz Carlton residences. We did have one sale just the other day on a two-bedroom unit at One Ski Hill Place.

Jeff Jones

Management

Three this winter. We are up to 53 at One Ski Hill Place.

Felicia Hendrix - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jeff Donnelly with Wachovia Securities.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst · Wachovia Securities.

I would like a point of clarification on your bookings. I think you mentioned in your release that inclusive of guest stays to date room rates are down, I think it was 13.9% versus 23.3% in December. To be clear, when is the start of the period that you’re using? Is it the start of the ski season or is it just for the particular quarter?

Rob Katz

Management

No, it’s the start of the ski season.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst · Wachovia Securities.

Okay and this is where I might be comparing apples and oranges, but if room night bookings to date in future periods are down, I think it was 13.9 as of the end of February, but hotel occupancy is down say 9% in the quarter, setting aside changes in booking periods wouldn’t that imply that room nights for all future periods alone are in fact down much more than 13.9, I don’t what the math works out to be, but maybe high teens?

Rob Katz

Management

Yes, I think that is an inference that you can draw, but what we’re seeing though is the close end bookings are up dramatically and because of that, that trend has been… In other words, if you looked at our booking number at the end of December it was down around this 15%, yet obviously you just commented on what our occupancy was down for the quarter. So, what we’re seeing is a big pick up short in and so right now when we’re giving you the numbers as of the end of February that is still not even close enough to spring break to actually see the full impact, which is certainly unprecedented ever in lodging. But, we’ve been tracking the bookings within two weeks of a stay and for the peak periods in particular it is up dramatically. I know for Christmas the number of bookings we got within two weeks of Christmas was up 64% over last year and we’ve seen similar trends, maybe not to that degree, but similar trends on each weekend and each peak period.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst · Wachovia Securities.

Is your gut then that maybe in the next quarter, for example, that that decline will be somewhere between let’s say the 14 that you saw in the most recent period and the 23 you saw as of December?

Rob Katz

Management

No, we’re expecting to see occupancy declines that are consistent with what we reported in the second quarter and not more than the current down 14% that you’re seeing in bookings. Obviously this has been a volatile market and the visibility is tough, but based on the trends we’ve seen to date, particularly during peak periods, we’ve seen a lot of close end bookings that have closed that gap quite a bit.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst · Wachovia Securities.

Okay switching over to Epic Pass, I mean certainly the landing destination demand seems to have been partially offset by locals who have taken advantage of your Epic Passes. I think as Felicia said, some of it well timed. I am curious how you balance discounting for locals who may or may not have come anyway; I guess you will never know, versus picking up market share and perhaps some cash flow visibility from the pass sales. How do you make that trade off in your mind?

Rob Katz

Management

Folks who upgraded from a Colorado Pass to the Epic Pass are actually providing us with a price increase and so we didn’t see very many locals who were buying single-day tickets before all of a sudden switching to the Epic Pass or locals who didn’t buy anything before switching to the Epic Pass. Locals whether they are locals in our mountain resorts or in the front range of Colorado, or our Heavenly, for the most part were moving from one pass to another and the Epic Pass, for most of them, was a price increase. It is the destination guest, obviously, for those who are willing to come out a lot are potentially getting a good discount. But, in this environment getting people locked into that pass and then getting them to stay in our lodges and eat food and all the rest of it has really, we think, helped our ear dramatically, but it is not locals. I mean, the locals may be skiing more per pass, which has helped our skier visits, but when you look at the lift ticket revenue decline of about 8% that is because of locking in a lot of the destination guests as well, and quite frankly, providing terrific promotions and terrific offers, and really connecting with this core group of customers where skiing is really a part of their life. They want to come out; we just have to give them a way to do it.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst · Wachovia Securities.

Do you have any color on how many destination skiers bought the Epic Pass and came more than once?

Rob Katz

Management

We do. We’re not disclosing that at this point, but we do.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst · Wachovia Securities.

Okay and your active repurchasing stock, have you continued to do that post quarter end, and I guess what you’re thinking on allocating capital in the future versus to more stock or repurchasing debt versus just holding the cash?

Rob Katz

Management

I think we’re probably taking a more cautious approach right now towards repurchased activity in the future, given the economic environment, given some of the other announcements that we made today. Obviously I think we’ve been consistent with our program. We’re not shutting it off. We’re keeping options available, but I would say taking a more cautious approach.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst · Wachovia Securities.

What has the activity been around the club memberships or sales that Vale and Arrabelle? I know you gave us that stats on what the sales have been, I think, to date. But, the last 30 to 60 days has there been good interest in tours and closings on those club memberships, or has that really pulled back?

Rob Katz

Management

No question it has pulled back. I think the entire market for real estate products and club memberships has definitely softened quite a bit over the last 12 months. I think that the good news for us, though, is that we are bringing in new members to the club. We can actually, as opposed to the Vale Mountain club; this is a club that people can experience first hand before making a decision. We think this is a club that we think offers a tremendous value and we’ll just continue to plug away and we intend to make good long-term progress on it, but there’s no question that the velocity of membership sales has declined over the last 12 months.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst · Wachovia Securities.

Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Nichole Jeroko with Babson Capital.

Nichole Jeroko - Babson Capital

Analyst · Babson Capital.

I would like a point of clarification on your CapEx guidance. That does not include your expected real estate development spending or?

Jeff Jones

Management

That is correct.

Nichole Jeroko - Babson Capital

Analyst · Babson Capital.

Do you have an estimate on your real estate development spending?

Jeff Jones

Management

Well we actually looked at that, really we only have two projects that are under construction now. The other projects have essentially all been completed and the range for what’s left to spend, not just in the next fiscal year, but to project completion in 2010 for both those projects One Ski Hill Place and the Ritz Carlton residence projects is a range of $280 to $300 million.

Nichole Jeroko - Babson Capital

Analyst · Babson Capital.

Right, I am wondering what you are expecting to spend in the next fiscal year.

Jeff Jones

Management

We haven’t broken that out.

Nichole Jeroko - Babson Capital

Analyst · Babson Capital.

You haven’t. Oh, okay, so it’s just the number for the next two years that you’re giving?

Jeff Jones

Management

Correct.

Nichole Jeroko - Babson Capital

Analyst · Babson Capital.

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Will Marks with JMP Securities.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

My first question is on the three Crystal Peak units, I think at least two you have taken them back. What about the third one?

Jeff Jones

Management

We have taken all three of those back that did not close, so we retained the deposits and have the units back and are remarketing them right now.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Okay great and the early pass pricing, are you doing the same for the Colorado Pass or any other product?

Rob Katz

Management

We haven’t announced the Colorado Pass pricing yet. That will be coming out in early April. We did announce the Heavenly Season Pass which we announced would be going out a reduced price to last year to try and instigate business there. Especially with the California economy struggling so much, I think we have a dichotomy where the Colorado economy, quite frankly, is quite strong, relatively speaking, to the rest of the country, where the California economy is struggling. I think we’re going to try and make our pass product for Heavenly as good a value as possible for those folks.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Does your language or the fact that you have stated you are maintaining this Epic Pass price early on imply that you will definitely raise the price at some point in the season?

Rob Katz

Management

No, the language states that we are guaranteeing that price through a certain date and then when we get to that date we look at it and make a decision. Certainly in Colorado, in particular, we’ve had a pretty long history of raising prices on those price break dates.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Okay and on the ski visits through January, a pretty wide disparity there. I can understand Heavenly being down significantly due to weakness in snow in particular, but how about between Vale and Keystone, there is a 20 point differential. Can you explain that?

Rob Katz

Management

I think what we’re seeing is in Vale and Beaver Creek I think we’re seeing the Epic Pass there really allowed people who are fans of Vale and Beaver Creek, who may have been on the Colorado pass before, to get a lot more days at Vale and Beaver Creek. They are not counting their days. They don’t have to worry about the 10-day limitation. There are also no restrictions on the Epic Pass so they can visit Vale and Beaver Creek during the holiday periods, where again, those who were on the Colorado Pass before could not. I think what you’re seeing in Vale and Beaver what you’re seeing is that we have a core customer who is still coming, but at the same time isn’t going to spend as much money. That is how their cutting back on their total vacation travel budget. For Keystone, a lot of those folks were not spending a ton of money to begin with at Keystone and when they cut back they may be actually cutting back their entire trip, or they may be cutting their trip down from seven days to three days. So, I think Keystone is seeing a much bigger shrink in actual visitation, because the income and demographics of their guest are such that that’s where they have to cut back. I think, interesting enough, Breckenridge obviously doesn’t benefit from the Epic Season Pass as much as Vale and Beaver Creek, or really very little at all, but is still seeing some pretty good stability in its visitation and I think that comes from, again, the customer base there really boiled to the entire experience that Breckenridge provides.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Great, okay, thank you and on real estate can you give an approximate date of first deliveries and final deliveries expected at the Ritz as well as at One Ski Hill?

Rob Katz

Management

At this point we’re not going to lock into that. What I can say is that it is late spring and late summer, early fall, is the dates for One Ski Hill Place and the Ritz respectively, for 2010, but as we get a little closer we will be able to nail down those dates a little bit more. But, we don’t want to commit to anything right now.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Your visitation through February through March 1 seems to be fairly strong and the bookings through the end of February are fairy strong and the drop in guidance is pretty significant. I am wondering where that is really coming from. Is it coming from the destination visitors showing up, but not spending as much? I am trying to get a sense of where visitation is going.

Rob Katz

Management

I think what I would say are two things: one is the third quarter is a bigger quarter than the second quarter, so the trends that we see get magnified in the third quarter. That’s number one. Number two, our brokerage business, which Jeff mentioned earlier, is the difference between their first half performance and their second half performance will be significant because we’re not expecting very much velocity of transactions in Eagle or Summit County in the second half of the year. In the first half there were the closings on Crystal Peak and the closings on the chalets. So that is going to be a major difference. We also, at the end of last year, did a great job on some of our medical plans and Workman’s Compensation and other things where we actually got some credits. We’re not expecting that return this year and so you combine all those things together and that is why we’re being more conservative in the second half. What I would say is our performance has actually held up fairly consistently through out a deteriorating economy, but there is no question that between the end of January and even today the economy has gotten worse and therefore we are going to be more conservative in deference to that.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Okay and on a related note, I think you typically don’t guide in this regard, but can you give any data or qualitatively state what third quarter visitation should be? It appears that the first month was well in within the single digits. Do you expect the whole quarter to remaining the single digits in terms of a decline?

Jeff Jones

Management

Yes. I think that this whole worsening third quarter, just to reiterate what Rob said, when you have a higher revenue quarter and you have negative trends, which we have, and we have listed those through the beginning of March which, again, have remained very similar to what we’ve been seeing earlier in the year. But, when you have a negative trend on an absolute basis against a higher revenue base you’re going to have a higher negative contribution coming out of that revenue. So, I just wanted to make sure that you know that’s what we’re trying to say in the notes here. That is a big thing. The other piece is the two-day impact that we had to lay out in the release and today on the call that flips back the other way in the third quarter. The fact that we always close our resorts out at the same time periods and you picked up that timing in the second quarter favorably a little bit and that is why the trends looked better at the end of January 31 on an absolute basis. Now obviously when we compared it to the same Saturday prior they showed the same trends we’ve been talking about. That absolute impact within the second quarter bounces back in the third quarter a little bit. When you add all those things up that Rob just talked about and this one as well, that is a little more conservative feeling at this point. From that perspective, that is where we came out at.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Right, okay thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Hayley Wolff with Rochdale Securities.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst · Rochdale Securities.

First, in the Real Estate segment, can you talk about any changes you might be making to the overhead there as you go into the slow downs?

Rob Katz

Management

Yes, we did make some reductions in our overhead expense. Actually we’ve been making them along this entire year, some additional people were let go yesterday as part of that given that we’re now pushing off projects like later phases of One Ski Hill Place and One River Run, but at the same time we are very actively focused on of course both the building Eight O’ One at One Ski Hill Place and the Ritz project and Ever Vale, which we have a lot of effort going into. What I would say is we are trimming, but at the same time it’s a core part of our business and it’s not something that we’re going to be out of per se.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst · Rochdale Securities.

In the past it has kind of been a $20 million overhead number. How big of a reduction will we see there?

Rob Katz

Management

We don’t give that kind of guidance, so it is not something I can answer.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst · Rochdale Securities.

Okay. Then talking about the mix of visits shifting to Vail and Beaver Creek, is there any intelligence you can glean from that in terms of thinking about marketing or investing in the resorts going forward?

Rob Katz

Management

I think what it says is that there is no question that Vale and Beaver Creek both have, Vale in particular is the number one brand in skiing, we believe, in the world. So, there is no question that once we offer something like the Epic Pass and allow people to visit it more often that that is going to drive visitation, number one. Number two, I also think that in a year like this year where maybe those people who were purchasing passes were probably not making other vacation choices, because they already purchased their skiing; so we saw a lot more visitation there. What I would say is we didn’t learn anything new by this visitation pattern from the Epic Pass in terms of how attractive the resorts are, but there are different income demographics at the different resorts and we market them appropriately. I think if you looked at last year, Keystone, which is maybe a resort that’s not performing as well this year with visits, but last year performed extraordinarily well. We don’t jump too quickly to conclusions in terms of changing the basic brand promise for each of the resorts.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst · Rochdale Securities.

So it’s just kind of a natural asset?

Rob Katz

Management

Yes.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst · Rochdale Securities.

Have you looked at matching up air travel into Vail versus room bookings? Is there any kind of disconnect? I say that because I know people who are flying in for the holidays and have yet to book their room, so I’m just trying to see if you’ve tracked it any other way?

Rob Katz

Management

Yes, we actually have seen, I think right now, flights are an earlier indicator of traffic and overall occupancy than advance bookings. So, you are right, people are booking their flights before they are booking their rooms. What I would say is that the bookings into Eagle are consistent with what we’ve been seeing all year long, which is this close-end booking trend. Definitely those bookings support what we’re seeing everywhere else.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst · Rochdale Securities.

Last year you had an early Easter which kind of truncated ski season for a lot of the destination guests. Given the push out this year, is there anything that you’re seeing in Easter bookings that’s somewhat encouraging?

Rob Katz

Management

Probably not, what I would say is that we know that April will be better this year than it was last year, but I think that trend, which in most normal years we would see today, because of the close-end booking window it will probably take us towards the end of March to see when people could be booking for Easter. It sounds loony, but it’s true. People, even for these peak times, are really waiting for that last week or two before making their decision.

Jeff Jones

Management

The other thing I would add to that on April is our early season and then our late season, which April certainly is, would be our most weather impacted seasons. I think in this environment people are going to hold off and wait to book until they’re confident that the experience in that late spring period is going to be good before they want to commit their dollars to it. They have ability to do that this year through the late booking methodology everyone has been using.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst · Rochdale Securities.

What kind of expectation for Easter is built into the guidance you gave?

Rob Katz

Management

I think what’s built in is an appropriate kind of bump, but not the Easters that we’ve seen in years past.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst · Rochdale Securities.

So you have April up versus last year in your guidance?

Jeff Jones

Management

Yes.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst · Rochdale Securities.

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mimi Noel with Sidoti & Company. Mimi Noel - Sidoti & Company: First I wanted to ask about whether or not you can make any general observations about your competition along the I-70 corridor perhaps closer to Denver. Are you seeing them performing better or worse than Vale, Beaver Creek?

Rob Katz

Management

We’re not going to comment on that. I don’t know that we have great visibility into that right now. I think at the end of the ski season the Colorado resorts do announce their skier date numbers, so we will have some visibility at that point, but as you know Interwest and Aspen are both private companies and so we don’t really get a tremendous amount of detailed information from them. Mimi Noel - Sidoti & Company: I got it, okay. Then the second question is about the CapEx guidance. Obviously a big part of the strategy at Vail Resorts is your continual investment in the resorts with these upgrades and making it a comprehensive, positive experience for the entire family. But, it seems as though the CapEx budget was originally, if I recall correctly, somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million and then it was trimmed back to somewhere in the $40’s and now it’s looking like it could be in the $30’s and this is maintenance CapEx; so how does that not undermine one of the major tenants of your growth strategy?

Rob Katz

Management

Maintenance CapEx for us, as we’ve always stated, has been between about $38 and $40 million. I think it has fluctuated between maybe $38, maybe above $40 by a million or two sometimes, but what I would say is we are actually not cutting back on what we believe is absolutely necessary for exactly what you’ve said which is to maintain, deliver the experience that people expect. There will not be a single guest who comes to our resorts next year who will see any kind of decline or degradation in the experience, or the facilities, or the lifts and our CapEx budget is centered around that. So, no we are not taking that down at all. What I would say is we spent over the last five years, obviously travel has been a booming business, and I think we did two things with our cash flow. One was we paid down our debt and the other one was we reinvested significantly into our properties and so we actually feel very, very good in this position going forward and we are very confident that we’ll be able to maintain the resorts not only to the current expectations, but actually beyond expectations as we go forward. Mimi Noel - Sidoti & Company: Okay that sounds good. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jake Hindelong with Monness Crespi Hardt.

Jake Hindelong - Monness Crespi Hardt

Analyst · Monness Crespi Hardt.

First on the cost side, year-to-date control has been very good. You have announced the new cuts as far as compensation are concerned. Assuming that the economy is going to continue to be relatively weak, what other cuts can we look for going into next year?

Rob Katz

Management

What I would say to you is I think at this point with the announcement today on labor that’s not something that we’re going to be making a priority going forward. I think we feel like we have really right sized our labor. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t additional selective opportunities, but in terms of looking at a company wide effort, I think that with the announcement today we are kind of putting that behind us. The next step for us is really doing a whole second layer review of every single thing we spend money on including utilities, and paper, and all of the outside vendor fees that we have, suppliers, all the rest of it, to make sure that we have right sized that as well. One of the decisions that we made at the beginning of this year and we will stick with is that we are going to open and keep available the entire mountain and the resort and amenities and everything else that people expect when they come and so we are not going to cut back in any way on the guest experience. I think that is going to be a differentiator. I think it is also an important thing when you’re selling season passes so people know they can rely on the full experience. What I would say is that we’re going to keep a tight lid on expenses. I think there are a couple of other areas that we will be attacking, but there is no quantum change in expenses from where we are today.

Jeff Jones

Management

Jake, just to add to that, as you said what further things can we do to impact next year. The greatest piece of the announcement today on the wage reductions will actually impact next year, because for those [interposing]…

Jake Hindelong - Monness Crespi Hardt

Analyst · Monness Crespi Hardt.

So that $10 million is all essentially going forward and wasn’t in the fiscal second quarter?

Jeff Jones

Management

Well yes, none of it was and it actually gets implemented starting in April so for the seasonal people that are impacted that will actually really kick in next year fully. Then for the full time this year, obviously, the greater piece of that will be for next year.

Jake Hindelong - Monness Crespi Hardt

Analyst · Monness Crespi Hardt.

Okay and then as we model that out through out the course of the year for next year would it be fair to think of that more as a straight line or more seasonal on the wage side?

Rob Katz

Management

Well a portion of it is seasonal; a portion of it is straight line. In terms of trying to model it quarter by quarter maybe that is something you can talk with Jeff or Michelle about off line.

Jake Hindelong - Monness Crespi Hardt

Analyst · Monness Crespi Hardt.

Okay great thanks. Then separately on the Analyst Day or the Investor Day that you’re having tomorrow, could you give us a very brief outline of what that will entail and any kind of detail on the discussion that you’ll be having about your real estate holdings?

Rob Katz

Management

I think we will have a presentation as we always do that we will be putting together. That will be available on the web and I think if you could make it to the presentation then you will be able to see it and if not then you can take a look at the Power Point slides on the web right after that. I think we will defer having that discussion right now.

Jake Hindelong - Monness Crespi Hardt

Analyst · Monness Crespi Hardt.

That is very good, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Simm with Shankman Capital

Chris Simm - Shankman Capital

Analyst · Shankman Capital

I just wanted to know how many of the Arrabelle membership units remain after the 11 at close?

Rob Katz

Management

There is a total of 300 memberships.

Chris Simm - Shankman Capital

Analyst · Shankman Capital

And that marketing you said you started what was it?

Rob Katz

Management

It started this season at Christmas.

Chris Simm - Shankman Capital

Analyst · Shankman Capital

That’s all I had, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Larry Shoemaker with Oppenheimer.

Larry Shoemaker - Oppenheimer

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

Do you have any look in to the summer bookings?

Rob Katz

Management

Earlier in the call I said that actually our view into Easter is actually quite difficult right now, because of the short booking window, so I think suffice it to say we do have summer bookings, but I think making any kind of conclusions about it would be folly, because I think we’re assuming that the summer will be very much like the winter, which is it’s going to take quite a bit of time before we actually start to build up any kind of visibility.

Jeff Jones

Management

Other than group bookings which tend to be more in advance that certainly we’ve seen a shift from group trends in, in the winter. We will see if that happens in the summer at our hotels, but certainly group bookings in general on an advance basis have been down. Larry Shoemaker – Oppenheimer: Did you give a look at Easter?

Rob Katz

Management

No, what we said was that because Easter is in April, April will be better this year than it was last year, but because of this short booking cycle, we can’t really make any conclusions about how Easter will be until we get further into March. Larry Shoemaker – Oppenheimer: My other question was can you quantify the demand for foreign visitation, or lack there of?

Rob Katz

Management

We can’t quantify, but we can say that it is definitely down. I think it is tracking not that far off of our overall destination business, maybe a little bit better, but it’s basically struggling because of trends that are opposite to where we were last year. Last year you had a weak dollar and you had countries actually performing a little bit better than the United States in terms of economic activity. This year I think you are seeing, obviously, a global recession, so other countries are struggling quite a bit. At the same time the dollar has strengthened over the last year; so both of those have combined to push down our international visitation. Larry Shoemaker – Oppenheimer: Thanks, good luck.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is a follow up question from Mimi Noel with Sidoti & Company. Mimi Noel - Sidoti & Company: Rob, are you counting on not a revolt, but with your seasonal employees how do you expect them to respond to a wage cut? I mean do you price competitively enough that it’s still attractive or do you factor in an increase in turn over, or deterioration in retention however you want to look at it?

Rob Katz

Management

No, I think especially for a lot of our long-term seasonal folks on the mountain, they are provided medical benefits and other things that are unusual for companies to provide seasonal folks, but they are really part of our family and so I think we treat them that way on that front. At the same time when it’s time for everybody to cut back a little bit there is no question that we are asking for them to do that as well. I think the labor market right now, I mean it is obviously no surprise, is not a great market when you’re looking for a job. I think that has just been unfortunate. I think from a hiring standpoint that hasn’t really been a challenge for us at all, but obviously that is the same driver for lower economic demand which is hurting our revenue. We would like nothing more, quite frankly, than to see job losses stop around the country which I think will pick up the economy, pick up demand, and I think help the business overall. We have told people that if the economy returns we will absolutely be looking to make adjustments to people’s compensation. It isn’t just a one-way when things are bad everybody gets hurt. It’s when things get better everybody does better too. Mimi Noel - Sidoti & Company: Okay, that’s helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Yasuna Murakami with MC2 Capital Management.

Yasuna Murakami - MC2 Capital Management

Analyst · MC2 Capital Management.

I want to congratulate you on the best possible result, I think, under the circumstances, but you briefly touched on this with Haley. So, basically the Ever Vail stuff, everything else is on track at this point. I realize last call you had mentioned this is four our five years out, but everything is pretty much on track as far as that is going?

Rob Katz

Management

Ever Vail, yes we are still moving full speed on Ever Vail. Obviously we are still in the planning and approval process for that. We will not be taking Ever Vail to market unless the market is there that we feel can support a sales effort.

Yasuna Murakami - MC2 Capital Management

Analyst · MC2 Capital Management.

Obviously you guys don’t about acquisitions, but you are definitely looking out there at this point. It seems to me that there is a lot of carnage out there as well from companies that are not as well positioned as you guys are, correct?

Rob Katz

Management

Yes, I think that part of our strategy has not changed.

Yasuna Murakami - MC2 Capital Management

Analyst · MC2 Capital Management.

Okay that’s it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Eric Mark with James Asset Management.

Eric Mark - James Asset Management

Analyst · James Asset Management.

I just wanted to get a sense in terms of the changing mix that you have between destination and local visitors and also on what is going on in media. Where are you seeing the best targeted media options in order to help move the needle for visitors? Are you changing your media advertising buying patterns at all?

Rob Katz

Management

There is no question that I think one of the best avenues right now is on line, especially when you’re dealing with short-end bookings and people are making their decisions at the last minute. Some of the longer lead advertising opportunities are a little tougher. But, we are still running a program where you’re promoting and building brand awareness over time and then trying to have a greater call to action program when you feel like somebody is going to be making a decision. What I would say today is that our online and email programs and to a lesser extent, but also important direct mail, are definitely becoming more important. Call to action and prices and promotions are definitely leading the day right now and I think that’s something that we will be continuing with throughout the summer and into next year.

Eric Mark - James Asset Management

Analyst · James Asset Management.

That’s helpful, I mean is TV and print advertising maybe weaker? Are you looking into traditionally more expensive buckets for targeted media?

Rob Katz

Management

We don’t advertise on TV, I mean other than in very, very selective situations on a local basis, but that’s not really a medium that we use. What I would say is no. If you were going to see a shift it’s going to be a shift towards the online direct mail email to our existing customers. You know we have a fairly robust database, quite frankly, of many, many people who have visited all five resorts at our Rock resorts over a long period of time. Obviously these are people who have already been out here and so this is the kind of environment where you are going to spend a lot of your time marketing to your existing customer base rather than trying to convince somebody who has never been to your resort to come. Again, that is just because that is one of the travel trends that we’re seeing right now is kind of the tried and true. Those are the people that are more apt to take vacations where they know what to expect. They don’t want to take a risk with their vacation dollars today.

Eric Mark - James Asset Management

Analyst · James Asset Management.

That’s very helpful. Would you say for the following year, or for next year and beyond, or at least for the foreseeable future, are you increasing your media buying patterns at all or just keeping it stable or down with costs?

Jeff Jones

Management

We haven’t even set our budgets for next year and it is not something we would typically comment on.

Eric Mark - James Asset Management

Analyst · James Asset Management.

Okay great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Shizad Alee with Jodicus Capital

Shizad Alee - Jodicus Capital

Analyst · Jodicus Capital

You guys did a great job kind of giving us updates during the ski season. I think we had one update in January. Should we look forward to seeing more updates on the visitation or just kind of wait until the next results come out?

Rob Katz

Management

We announced this at the beginning of the season that we are planning a final update which would be on kind of the ski season metrics piece which would be about a week after Easter, but we haven’t set an exact date yet.

Shizad Alee - Jodicus Capital

Analyst · Jodicus Capital

Okay, so like mid April, okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is a follow up question from Hayley Wolff with Rochdale Securities.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst

Can you talk about the whole maybe less by group business this year?

Jeff Jones

Management

I never disclosed it, but I think how I would characterize it is group business does not represent a huge amount of skier visits, but it certainly represented a big chunk of both fine dine and ski school and to a certain extent rentals. I would probably focus most on ski schools, but you know a lot of groups would come in and take many, many instructors, particularly during the noon-peak time periods. One of the reasons why I think you’re seeing ski school under perform the other areas right now is because of that group business.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst

Okay and then any success or any read on Epic Pass marketing to destination guests this year and impact for next year? I mean have you gotten the word out to some of these destination guests?

Rob Katz

Management

We talked about today that we are starting to market next year’s Epic Pass today and it’s going to be available at the same price of $579.00 for adults, $279.00 for kids and we are going to be actively and aggressively marketing it to our existing customer base and at the resorts themselves. Especially during this peak spring break weeks.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst

Okay and then as you think about our customer who has been the person that, at least the perception is they come with their family, they take two instructors for the day for the length of their vacation. Assume that customer has changed their buying behavior permanently. How do you think about sort of repositioning your resorts?

Rob Katz

Management

I think our view is that mountain resorts are actually uniquely positioned to pivot, so to speak, because they already host a wide range of income demographics. While it is true that Vale and Beaver Creek have a lot of higher income people, they also have a lot of lower income people and that is true of Breckenridge and Keystone as well. So, you can get somebody who is skiing on a comp ticket they may have gotten from their friend who bought a season pass with a brown bag lunch in their knapsack skiing right next to this “family” that you just outlined has two instructors with them. I think what you’re going to see us doing for next season is really continuing to offer things like the Epic Pass in all of our product lines so that we’re making ski school and other things available in different formulations to make them a greater value, to lower the absolute ticket price. Again, we’re still going to be doing the exact same thing, but you’re going to have more choices when you come to our resorts, to allow you to put together a vacation at different price points.

Hayley Wolff - Rochdale Securities

Analyst

Oh, okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

At this time we have no further questions in the queue. I would like to turn the conference back over to Rob Katz for any closing remarks.

Rob Katz

Management

Thank you, operator. That wraps up our fiscal 2009 second quarter earnings call. Thanks to everyone who joined us on the conference call today. Please feel free to contact me or Jeff directly should you have any further questions. Thank you for your time this morning and good-bye.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen this concludes the Vail Resorts Fiscal 2009 Second Quarter Results Conference Call. If you would like to listen to a replay of today’s conference please dial 303-590-3000 or 1-800-405-2236 followed by pass code 11126502. ACT would like to thank you for your participation.