Earnings Labs

National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 25, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the National CineMedia Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. David Oddo, SVP of Finance. Thank you, Mr. Oddo. You may begin.

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

Good afternoon. I'd like to remind our listeners that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27-A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21-E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements other than the statements of historical facts communicated during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Important factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from the company's expectations are disclosed in the risk factors contained in the company's filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by such factors. Further, our discussion today includes some non-GAAP measures. In accordance with Regulation G, we have reconciled these amounts back to the closest GAAP-basis measurement. These reconciliations can be found either at the end of today's earnings release or on the Investor page of our website at www.ncm.com. Now, I'll turn the call over to Andy England, CEO of National CineMedia. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, David. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome and thanks for joining us for our 2015 earnings call. Before we get into our results, I'd like to thank the exceptionally talented National CineMedia team for building one of America's premiere video advertising networks. This team has established a strong foundation from which we can continue to build. I'm extremely privileged to take on the CEO role with NCM, especially with the company having just finished a year that posted both record advertising revenue and adjusted OIBDA. At a time when the entire video advertising landscape is shifting and brands are seeking better and more engaging ways to reach consumers, I'm very excited to be joining one of the top millennial networks in the country, and I look…

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

Thanks, Andy. For the fourth quarter, our total revenue increased 10.8% versus Q4 2014, driven by a 5.7% increase in national advertising revenue and a 41.6% increase in local and regional advertising revenue, partially offset by a 31.4% or $3.2 million decrease in beverage advertising revenue. With a higher Q4 local and regional advertising revenue growth, our Q4 advertising revenue mix shifted to 66% national, 29% local and regional, and 5% beverage, versus 69%, 23% and 8% respectively for Q4 2014. With a higher full year national advertising revenue growth, our full year advertising revenue mix shifted to 69% national, 24% local and regional and 7% beverage, versus 66%, 25% and 9% respectively for fiscal year 2014. For the fourth quarter, the 5.7% increase in national ad revenue was driven by a 10.2% increase in CPMs, partially offset by a 6.2% decrease in impressions sold versus Q4 2014. This increase in CPMs is primarily due to another quarter of strong scatter pricing, while the decrease in impressions sold was due to a decrease in inventory utilization to 132.1%, from 138.7%, on a 2.9% decrease in network attendance. Excluding the additional week in our fiscal fourth quarter of 2014, our Q4 network attendance would have increased 2.7%. For the full year, national ad revenue increased 19.6% versus 2014, driven by a 14.2% increase in impressions sold and a 6.7% increase in CPMs. The increase in impressions sold was due to an increase in inventory utilization to 128.3% from 115.7%, on a 1% increase in network attendance due to an overall expansion of our client base, related in part to the success of our strategy to compete in the national television upfronts. Our higher 2015 CPMs reflected the success of our upfront strategy and strong scatter pricings during our higher demand Q2…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Eric Handler with MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Eric O. Handler - MKM Partners LLC

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Yes, thanks. Andy, welcome to NCM. Quick question. Now that you've been in the seat for a couple months, you're stepping in, the machine's running pretty well. Curious to see where you think you can have the biggest impact on the business. And then, looking at the overall business – and, David, maybe you could shed some light on this in terms of your guidance, how do you think of the balance between utilization versus CPMs this year? Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, firstly, thank you, Eric. I appreciate the question and the welcome. In terms of the biggest impact, I think it's really about – to your point, this is a well-managed business and it's a successful business and I see my job as to essentially accelerate that performance. So particularly when you look at the core business, we have a terrific core business and my objective will be to bring in more circuits, bring in more advertisers and enhance the business in any way I can to make sure that marketers see this as just a terrific solution in a fragmenting media world. Secondarily, of course, I'll be looking to see where else we can expand from that platform. But it's really – job one is about building the core business. The second part?

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

And, Eric, on the guidance for utilization and CPMs, we've guided to – our national ad revenue to be up mid-single digits and decided just to leave it at that. We're off to a good start. Obviously, our upfront CPMs are up and we've just guided to Q1 CPMs being up as well. But we'll just leave those metrics to fall out as they will throughout the year. Obviously, it'll be a combination of both in some way.

Eric O. Handler - MKM Partners LLC

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Thank you both. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alexia Quadrani with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Julia Yue - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · Alexia Quadrani with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question

Hi. Thank you. This is Julia Yue on for Alexia. In a year when a lot of people are talking about fewer tent-pole films and maybe a broader base of mid-sized films filling out the slate, how do you think this may affect your business? And are there any particular benefits or opportunities from it? Or is it more of a headwind? And kind of as a follow-up to that, you've talked about before packaging different ad spots together so advertisers can hit their overall goals, and it seems like this might be more relevant this year with the slate of potentially a lot more smaller films. So do you think this process has gotten easier for the advertiser, or do you think there still needs to be progress here to make the experience easier or more seamless? Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, Julia, thank you. Thanks for the question. Obviously, this is my first year in the business. And so I look at the film slates with a great deal of interest and as I talk to our founder circles and I talk to my colleagues about film slates and what's a bigger or better film slate than what isn't, I'm certainly aware of what the consensus view is on 2016 and 2017. But I'm also aware that the consensus view on Deadpool was that it was a decent movie that would do perhaps $60 million in its first weekend and it did over the four-day weekend, I think, $150 million. So you'll forgive me if I'm a little skeptical about the experts' views on what the slate's going to do in 2016. So net-net, the slate matters. Clearly it matters and if films do better, it's certainly going to help us. It's our intention to make sure that we have such a strong platform that that's not the driver of our business, however. So we shall see. I'm not sure I fully understood your question about packaging ads together. We typically do package ads together by rating. Obviously, as we look to get smarter and offer our advertisers better solutions, part of our intent going forward as we improve our inventory management system is to be able to offer genres as well. And so we will be offering different packages and, frankly, more complex packages to our advertisers going forward. Not sure if that answers your question but...

Julia Yue - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · Alexia Quadrani with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question

Yeah. That's very helpful. Thank you. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of James Dix with Wedbush Securities. Please proceed with your question.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · James Dix with Wedbush Securities. Please proceed with your question

Good afternoon. Andrew, welcome. I guess my first question is just looking at the base of advertisers that you have, like the categories, the verticals, what is that mix now as you looked back at 2015 and where do you see particular upside as you look at the advertisers that use television versus the ones that use cinema? I knew there's always an issue of trying to get advertisers to get involved in some of your lower utilization months. But I'm just wondering when you look at the advertisers using the medium, where do you see particular upside? And then I had one follow-up. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. That's a difficult one to answer, James, but thank you for your question. I think we do already have a tremendous base of advertisers. As mentioned, there are some categories where we do particularly well. And it tends to be, candidly, those categories who are buying premium video. So if you look across the broader $70 billion to $80 billion U.S. premium video marketplace, they're already buying the more expensive, higher-engagement premium video. So those are, if you like, our bread and butter. I think our opportunity to your push is to bring in more advertisers who might choose to advertise at a more financially acceptable time to them. And certainly CPGs, for example, would be one area. But I think we have a whole lot of opportunity with the other advertisers. I think the other opportunity, of course, we have is to have those advertisers advertise with us more consistently, and that'll obviously be part of it as well. So to the extent that we can continually demonstrate success for their businesses by advertising with us, that's an opportunity as well.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · James Dix with Wedbush Securities. Please proceed with your question

Great. And then just following up a little bit on remarks you made about mobile, where do you see the longer-term potential there? Because it always seemed to me as though there's been a little bit of tension between the circuits and maybe you, as an ad platform, as to how to integrate the mobile phone into the theater experience. But it does seem like there's a lot of upside potentially to integrate the mobile phone with your advertisings. I'm just wondering whether you have any longer-term thoughts about where that should be going. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think firstly, I'd say certainly our founder circuits as represented in our board meetings and elsewhere are very supportive of us chasing the digital and mobile advertising dollar. And I think as we look at the moviegoer, we have an option to reach them before, during and after their movie-going experience. And I think from a circuit point of view, there's no issue with the before and the after. There's some discussion about the during for the obvious reason that they ask that you mute your phone before the movie itself. So obviously, they don't want other patrons to be disrupted. But beyond that, I think they're very supportive and that's certainly an area we believe there's potential.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · James Dix with Wedbush Securities. Please proceed with your question

Great. Thanks very much. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome. Thanks, James.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Barton Crockett with FBR Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question. Barton E. Crockett - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Okay, great. Thanks for taking the question. I was a little bit interested in looking at the guidance a little bit more. I guess really kind of two things in particular. One is your guiding for in revenue growth and OIBDA growth at about the same level, so not much in the way of margin expansion. But I would think your ad revenues come in at a very high contribution margin, and I would think that 4% to 6% revenue growth could be margin expansive. Is there some type of unusual expense that is weighing on margins as we look ahead? So that's one part of it. Another question I was curious about is you're probably seeing lumpiness in revenues with the first quarter down but the full year up. Which quarters are the inverse of what we see in the first quarter as you look ahead to the year? Where should we see more growth to offset the step-down in the first quarter? Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Barton. I'm going to just start and I'm going to hand over to David. I think that the first thing I'd point out is, firstly, we do have high gross margins to begin with, as you know. I'd also point out that if you look at our cost base, a significant part – in fact, really over half of our costs are either contractual or related directly to sales commissions. So we do have a cost base that is somewhat static, but certainly a little opportunity for leverage. David?

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

Yeah, I mean, Barton, one of the things that weighs down – that has been weighing down and will weigh down – continue a little bit on margin is just the change in the beverage revenue and the 30 seconds reduction. As I mentioned, we expect it to be – even with the increase in the CPMs of 5.7%, we expect it to still be down low single digits on the beverage. So I think if you exclude the beverage on both sides of revenue and OIBDA, you'll see a little bit more margin expansion there. Other than that, there's really nothing else really to point to. Again, we noted that we added some downside protection on the guidance there. What was the other part of your question on the quarters? Barton E. Crockett - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Yeah, I was just wondering, I mean, if the first quarter is down and the full year is up, where do we see good growth? Is it the third quarter, second quarter, fourth quarter? When you guys have mapped out the year, what offsets this stuff down in the first quarter?

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

Yeah, as I mentioned, we're giving you high-level guidance on where the upfront allocations are laying out. And when I gave the Q1 guidance, I mentioned that our upfront allocations in 2016 are weighted more towards the back half of the year, so the third quarter and the fourth quarter of the year and – versus if you looked at the same upfront allocations last year. And this is inclusive of content partners as well. So it's just the way that the dollars are being spread throughout the year. Barton E. Crockett - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Okay. All right. Great. Thanks a lot. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Barton.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Goss with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Jim Goss with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

Thanks. I would like to ask a little bit more about the first quarter decline and the 30-second reduction related to beverage. I thought the beverage contract was one of the ones that are sort of cast in stone. How did that develop? And if you had to look at the comp issue, the beverage contract, and the small size of the quarter, how do those blend in to create the decline in the first quarter?

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. Well, the beverage contracts basically say, with our ESAs, with the founding members, that we have to provide them up to 90 seconds of advertising if they need it, their individual contracts that they have with Coke (47:40). And so that's what's set in stone. Now that has changed over the years. So we're pointing out that one of our founding members, beginning of July 1, 2015, had reduced their beverage time from 60 seconds to 30 seconds. And so, that creates a comp issue on our beverage advertising all the way through June of this year. And so the first quarter will see a small impact from that, $1 million or $2 million there. As for the rest of the first quarter, I just want to point out that, again, it's traditionally the lowest revenue and adjusted OIBDA quarter that we have in any given year. In fact, it's been around 10% or 12% of our OIBDA for the entire year. So I want to put that into perspective. And again, we had a record Q1 last year, so it was a bit of a difficult comp as well. So only – the numbers are so small in the first quarter that only a few million dollars makes it a big percentage change. So I wouldn't put too much stock in that. And again, I just explained to Barton that the upfront and content partner allocation just played out a little bit differently this year.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Jim Goss with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

Okay.

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

And also wanted to point out that – which shows the health of the scatter market is that our scatter dollars are up in the first quarter versus last year's scatter dollars. And I also pointed out that we just wanted to create just a little bit of downside protection on the low end of our guidance range just in case the box office didn't perform as well as we expected in March.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Jim Goss with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

All right. That's a good definition. And Andy, I would add my welcome as well. And you did with the... Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Jim Goss with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

...with the advertising background you bring to the table, you made an interesting comment about genre. And that traditionally, I think there wasn't a lot of matching of the advertising to the types of movies. And maybe it's because things can be moved around in a fluid (49:35) fashion. But are you thinking that that might be a way to improve the value to the advertisers by doing a better job of matching to the extent you can, and then maybe command a higher price point for the ads? Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: The short answer would be yes, Jim. Thank you for your welcome. I think up until now, the focus of our sales has been by rating – by G, PG-13, R, et cetera. And so yes, the opportunity to advertise by genre essentially enables the marketer to better match against their target audience. And so, that requires us to have the systems improvement on the inventory management side. But once we have that up and running, that's our intent and obviously to supply the kind of data and analytics that will help the marketer make that match between their brand and their target audience provided by the rest of the genres. So with the obvious benefit to us we think (50:40) it's more efficient, it drives a higher CPM.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Jim Goss with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

Okay. And one other question I have is the subject of make-goods came up. And in most broadcast settings make-goods are a cost. They've been less of a cost, I think for NCMI because of the fact that (51:01) you have available inventory. So they might almost (51:06) be a benefit if you couldn't deliver all of the eyeballs in one period, but you had spots available the next period and you could run the ad then and it would fill it in and tighten up supply and demand. Is that changing? Are you getting to the point where you don't have that availability or am I misreading that situation?

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. Jim, this is David. No, it hasn't changed. Our softer periods are generally when we reported make-good at the end of the quarter, the next month has plenty of room to absorb that make-good and if not then in the following month as well. And typically, three quarters out of our four quarters we've got a pretty soft month historically after the end of the quarter. January, for example, April, October, July is the only one that sometimes we may have some make-good that spills over into August and September, but nothing there has changed. We still recognize all the revenue.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Jim Goss with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Thank you very much. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Nemoto with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question. N. Anthony Nemoto - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I have a question around reserve seating. How are you guys thinking about that? And anything you're doing specifically in the mobile and online space that you were discussing earlier in the call to specifically approach that potential trend? And then secondly, when can we expect to see impacts from the DMP and other analytics offerings in the numbers? Is this an offering that you'll plan on looping into this year's upcoming upfronts? Thank you. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Thank you, Anthony. I think the first piece of that, reserve seating, I think we shall see. Clearly, reserve seating has, and in particular, recliner seats, et cetera, worthwhile for the circuits. And you see that continue to expand. From what I understand from the circuits, there is a limit to where they can expand it based on the type of market and the sensitivity to pricing, et cetera. We certainly think that that continues to give us an opportunity to market to those individuals and plan to do so as we do to all those folks who we can capture through our partnerships around data. In terms of the impact from our data and analytics, we plan to talk about that at the upfront. We believe we'll be in a position to talk more clearly about data and analytics and what our plan will be and how it will help our business at the upfront. And obviously, we will see how that plays out with our advertising customers. N. Anthony Nemoto - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Eric Wold with B. Riley. Please proceed with your question. Eric Wold - B. Riley & Co. LLC: Thank you and good afternoon. There's understandably been some cost around the 2016 slate, tough comps to last year's record, and I presume that's playing into the guidance and upfront demand and allocation from your advertisers. That being said, it's also pretty well-believed that 2017 is going to be an extremely strong year once again with the return of a bunch of key franchises and tent-pole films. Tell me (54:46), at what point if not now, do you start having discussions with advertisers to lock in slots for next year? Are we likely to see that happen earlier than normal? And what are your thoughts on the impact on that to CPMs? Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, I mean it's a good question and I'm certainly in the learning curve as to the importance of the slate. Obviously, a great slate brings in more moviegoers but how accurately we can gauge those slates beforehand seems to be an art rather than a science, to say the least. With that said, if you think about our upfront this year, we talked to our advertisers about really five quarters. We talked to them about the fourth quarter of 2016 all the way through 2017. And so that's exactly – and May of this year in New York is exactly when we'll begin to really talk up the 2017 slate as well as the fourth quarter of 2016 slate. And to the extent that the advertisers share the prognosticators' views about the strength of that slate, that should help us. Eric Wold - B. Riley & Co. LLC: Perfect. Thank you. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Eric.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. England for closing comments. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good. Thank you. Well, thank you for joining us today. I just, again, want to reiterate my thanks to the National CineMedia team particularly David Oddo and Jeff Cabot who, for the last three years, have been Co-Interim CFOs and done an exceptional job in those capacities. We have an exciting business. We have a business that operates within the premium video space. We think we have lots of opportunity. Hopefully, you began to get a sense of that on this call and I look forward to future discussions with you all, both collectively and individual. Thanks very much.