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National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Mon, Aug 8, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the National CineMedia Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. I'd now like to turn the conference over to your host, David Oddo, SVP of Finance. Please go ahead.

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

Good afternoon. I'd like to remind our listeners that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements other than the statements of historical facts communicated during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Important factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from the company's expectations are disclosed in the risk factors contained in the company's filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by such factors. Further, our discussion today includes some non-GAAP measures. In accordance with Regulation G, we have reconciled these amounts back to the closest GAAP-basis measurement. These reconciliations can be found at the end of today's earnings release, which may be found on the Investor page of our website at www.ncm.com. Now, I'll turn the call over to Andy England, CEO of National CineMedia. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, David. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2016 earnings call. During this call, I will spend a few minutes highlighting the company's second quarter results and progress against that 2016 business plan. David will then provide a more detailed discussion of financial performance for Q2 and provide guidance for Q3 and full year 2016. And then, as always, we will open the line for questions. I'm pleased that we were able to deliver solid second quarter revenue and adjusted OIBDA results that exceeded the midpoint of guidance ranges, especially as we were up against the record Q2 2015, the total revenue and adjusted OIBDA growth of 22% and 30% respectively versus Q2 of 2014.…

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

Thanks, Andy. For the second quarter, our total revenue decreased 5% versus Q2 2015, driven by a 6.2% decrease in national advertising revenue and a 21.1% or $1.9 million decrease in beverage revenue, partially offset by a 5.4% increase in local and regional advertising revenue. Total Q2 adjusted OIBDA decreased 11.9% and adjusted OIBDA margin decreased to 51.5% from 55.5% versus Q2 2015. For the first six months of 2016, total revenue decreased 3.4%; adjusted OIBDA decreased 12.3%; and adjusted OIBDA margin decreased to 43.5% from 47.9% versus the first six months of 2015. These Q2 and year-to-date declines are primarily driven by the decreases in high margin national advertising revenue and 100% margin beverage revenue and increases in selling expenses related to online publisher expense that is offset by lower margin revenue, investments in research and data required for upgraded sales proposal and inventory management systems and a $700,000 non-cash impairment charge on an investment obtained in prior years in exchange for remnant advertising inventory. We also recorded $700,000 of AMC Rave and Cinemark Rave integration payments for the second quarter versus $800,000 in Q2 2015. You should note that these integration payments are added to adjusted OIBDA for debt compliance and partnership cash distribution purposes, but are not included in reported revenue and adjusted OIBDA, as they are recorded as a reduction to net intangible assets on the balance sheet. We now expect to record approximately $2.5 million of these integration payments from our founding members during 2016. Our Q2 2016 advertising revenue mix shifted slightly toward local and regional, and was 72% national, 22% local and 6% beverage versus Q2 2015 that was 73%, 20% and 7% respectively. Q2 national ad revenue decreased 6.2% versus Q2 2015 and was driven by 16.2% decrease in impressions sold, partially…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from James Dix from Wedbush Securities.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Wedbush Securities

Good afternoon, gentlemen. I guess three things just related to the guidance for the first two. It looks like for the full year, revenue is looking to be around $20 million to $25 million, about 5% lower than your prior guidance. Any color you could give on the components of that change and then similarly on EBITDA, looks like – OIBDA is around $20 million or so than your prior guidance. I'm curious on the incremental margins there what – anything else going on there than simply flowing through the impact of the revenue change to the bottom line. And then finally, you mentioned in the release and then also in your remarks some client churn I think maybe in the national level for the 3Q, some moving to the Olympics, if I understood correctly. Do you have any data on how many national advertisers are not returning this year? I think you gave already some statistics on new advertisers this year, just any – curious on the flip side there? Thanks.

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

James, I'll take the guidance change question. Most of it is due to Q3, not performing as expected. Again, I pointed out that the Olympics had most of the impact on that, some of our advertisers that advertised last year aren't advertising with us this year, just shifting their money towards the Olympics. And then we just added some more conservatism to the fourth quarter. So, that's the remaining piece of that mostly on the national side, but on the local side as well, they both have record quarters last year. So, we want to make sure that we're giving you guys conservative guidance that we have a lower probability of having to change later in the year. So, just a little bit more conservative in fourth quarter.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Wedbush Securities

And then just on EBITDA, I mean it looks like most of it is flowing straight through to EBITDA, is that how we should be thinking about or are there any incremental costs that are going into that?

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

No, there is no incremental costs, we have high margin national revenue and also high margin local revenue. When we move guidance ranges down, we keep the same ranges. So, when you get to the lower end of the ranges, it skews the margin a little bit, but we have implemented cost savings measures as well the last half of the year. So, there is no incremental cost at all, it's just a factor of the way the numbers work when you have $10 million ranges.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Wedbush Securities

Okay. And then any data on the how many advertisers are being affected, I guess by – is all the churn basically related to the third quarter Olympics, I'm just trying to get a sense of that?

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

Most of it is in the third quarter, I would say more than 50% and probably five advertisers or six advertisers.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Wedbush Securities

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Barton Crockett from FBR Capital Markets. Barton Crockett - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Okay. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to drill down a bit more on the guidance change. Could you give us a little bit more precision around the $25 million you're taking out of revenues, would you say more than half of it was in the third quarter or was it even more skewed to the third quarter? How much of it was – can you give us some percentage breakdown there roughly?

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

I'd say most of it, more than half is the third quarter. Barton Crockett - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Okay.

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

And then again, we're just bringing some conservatism in the fourth quarter guidance. And as Andy noted and I noted, we're on track to hit at this point in the year, it's still early, we've still got a lot to sell, November and December especially you sell more as you get closer. But we are on track to hit our targets for the fourth quarter and Andy mentioned that we expect the flattish year. Barton Crockett - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Okay. Now on this kind of issue of Olympics, I mean this was predictable at some level, I mean the Olympics come up every four years. Was the Olympics behavior here different than what you've seen in the past, is that what led to the surprise there on the guidance? Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks Barton. This is Andy. I think firstly, I don't think we have very good information on that, because obviously the Summer Olympics happens once every four years. So, I don't think we have very good information from 2012 on exactly what happened there. But, I also think the world is totally different from 2012. I mean if you look at the amount of fragmentation in media and the sheer amount of change that's gone in the media marketplace, I'm not sure detailed 2012 information would have informed us that well. So, I think if you look at what advertisers are doing in terms of just look at year's upfront and some of the behavior you are seeing there in reaction to the brutal scatter market last year. I think, there's just a lot of change, and I think it was very difficult to predict. So, that's the overall take on it. And obviously, we continue to build relationships…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Alexia Quadrani from JPMorgan.

Julia Yue - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan

Hi. Thank you. This is Julia Yue on for Alexia. A few questions. First, how your conversations with advertisers been different if at all this year in the upfront compared to previous years, particularly do you think that advertisers are seeing NCM data capabilities differently and really leveraging these new initiatives, or do you think it's more of an educational process right now as they become more comfortable. And then secondly, could you also talk a little bit more about the local and regional business where I think like you continue to diversify the client base and what are the biggest drivers of that improvement? Are you seeing broad-based interest? Is it coming from the certain industries and how much of it is increased sales force efficiency? Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you. I think the conversations we're having with advertisers this year, I think have been extraordinarily positive. I think, we are in a world where the earlier part of the conversation, some of the upfront CPMs getting written are in the low-double digit increases. I think we begin to seem like a much more reasonably priced medium in the broader context of premium video. And I think that leads to very positive conversations, because I think for the most part advertisers want to be on that big screen. It's a matter of affordability and we appear to be getting more affordable, which I think is very encouraging. I think the data piece of it is important. I think it is an ante (36:40) – it's something that you have to bring to the broader marketplace, and I think it's recognized that we are doing a significantly better job. So just, with this upfront, we're going from selling just by rating to selling by genre, and the data that's there to back it up is strong and I think that enables our advertisers to be more efficient and they certainly appreciate that. So I think we're hearing just very good things. And by the way, it's not lost on people that I think the conversations we're having now obviously are more about 2017 and it's not lost on people that the film slate is expected to be very strong in 2017, so that's part of the conversation as well. I think when it comes to local and regional business, I don't know if you can add a perspective here David, but I think again, we continue to sort of diversify our client base. I think that we continue to have good conversations and be thought of as one of the more interesting options out there for local and regional. I'm not sure I could talk to the specific categories. Do you have any handle on that?

David J. Oddo - SVP Finance, Co-Interim CFO and Principal Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. The categories are just very diversified. They're all over the map. So, there's really none that stick out as doing any better than others. They hit basically every category you can think of out there.

Julia Yue - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan

Okay, great. Thank you so much. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ben Mogil from Stifel. Benjamin Mogil - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. So, the first question I've got really is with regards to the sort of Q&A that you had with Barton about what's changing in the Olympics and so the macro. You talk about Millennials being a desirable audience, but when you look at sort of the MPAA stats, the Millennials are leaving the theaters in droves. I mean is that playing anything, you think, in a role here in terms of some of the advertiser concern about the medium? Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think there's some dispute over some of those stats. I think there's – I don't think candidly we're well aligned as an industry over what the actual stats are. And so, if you look at the very long term, there is certainly some leakage of overall audience from movie theaters, but no way near the level of leakage you're seeing in TV, particularly around cable. So, I think 2015 proved that when you got a strong film slate, Millennials are there in droves. So I'm not – provided that the studios are there developing great original content, I think we're going to have a great audience to sell. Benjamin Mogil - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: And are you getting any kind of pushback from advertisers? I'm just concerned that even on the attendance numbers that you've got sort of lots of distractions in the theaters, people looking at phones, doing other stuff, like are you getting any kind of feedback or pushback the way you would see it with TV, with maybe sitting in front of the TV, that you obviously have distractions available, should you want them? Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. We have the distraction conversation once in a while, but frankly, it doesn't tend to be a very long conversation, because all the evidence shows, particularly when it comes to Millennials that they are multi-screening very regularly, and it doesn't – if you draw the comparison, and most advertisers are comparing the movie theater to TV, right? They're comparing it in terms of premium video, and you literally can't block out the cinema screen with an iPhone. It's right there and you're going to see it, but you sure can block out a TV screen with an iPhone. And so, I think the sheer size of the screen and the all-consuming nature of the cinema advertising medium actually makes it the dominant screen even if you got one in your hand as well versus TV where it's a fairer fight. Benjamin Mogil - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. That's great. Thank you very much. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome. Thank you, Ben.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Hickey from Benchmark.

Michael Hickey - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Analyst · Benchmark

Hey, Andy and David. Thanks for taking my questions, guys. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Mike.

Michael Hickey - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Analyst · Benchmark

I think you've hit on – hey. Maybe just to clarify the – obviously, 2016 is a tough year for the box, tough comps, Olympics, politics, et cetera, obviously driving some churn in your business, but I guess we're close to 2017 here, and I'm sort of curious, the enthusiasm that you can sort of rebound here and drive growth, obviously there's some excitement for the box office, not just in 2017, for (41:21) 2018. You have less disruptions, it sounds like you continue to get traction in the upfront, which should be an incremental positive and of course that the comps are easier. So, I'm just sort of curious to get your early take on 2017, if you have any data. I know you're not wanting to supply (41:39) those much, but do you have any data in terms of bookings in 2017 compared to prior year? I think that's constructive at this point. Then I have a quick follow-up. Thanks. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, Mike, thank you for the question. We can't give you numbers on that at the moment. What we can tell you is that we're encouraged by our upfront discussions. What we will do is we'll provide 2017 guidance in our February call. So, we'll certainly fill it in then. But I think to your point, there's a tremendous film slate coming in 2017 and I think that allied with the conversations we've been having in the upfront, make us certainly very optimistic. I should point out that, we will have an increase – every five years, we have an increase in that theater access fees. So, that is a slight offset there, but nonetheless I think we feel very good about 2017.

Michael Hickey - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Analyst · Benchmark

Okay. Good. Thank you. The last question one of your founding members AMC has taken the growth path to look at international market in terms of expanding the network. And so, I'm sort of curious from your business looking at Europe, I think obviously there's a lot more fragmentation in Europe on film and advertising than we have domestically. So I'm sort of thinking or curious if you could sort of reset your strategic view on perhaps international expansion, what you might see from Europe? Thank you. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you for that question. I mean as we've reviewed our strategy with the board, obviously international is one of the discussions that come up. I can tell you it's not a priority, but the reason it's not a priority is, first, because we think we have an important and valuable things to get done in the U.S. But secondly, because we haven't spotted a great synergistic opportunity as yet on the international landscape now, as you know that can change and we're certainly open to those opportunities. And at the same time, there might be a financial transaction that makes sense even without great synergies. So, we're certainly open to that, but we don't see this being a priority today.

Michael Hickey - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Analyst · Benchmark

Okay. All right. Thanks, guys. Thanks a lot. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Mike.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jim Goss from Barrington Research.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Barrington Research

Thanks. I apologize if this was covered, since I came in early. But did – if you look at reserved and receded situations, have you determined whether those aspects are plus or minus to what you offer? Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Jim. I think frankly it's a mix bag. If you look at what's going on and how the exhibitors are investing capital in improving the experiences in their theaters, I think there is a mix bag. I think the overall improved experience in the theater is helping attendance. I certainly think improved dining options et cetera or both improving attendance and driving people in early. But, it's – our sense is when you look at the reserve seating, it's a mix bag. It's probably not helping us overall, but nonetheless, is making the experience better for the attendee and driving attendance. So when you added all up, we think it's somewhat neutral if you look at the package of things that are changing in movie theaters, but certainly we will watch it with a great deal of interest.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Barrington Research

Okay. And any thoughts on how you might incentivize audiences to get there early? For example, could you flip around a little and engage audiences using their iPhones in your time slot, maybe with a quick game, with a concession give away from an ad sponsor or something of that sort that would sort of play into what you're experiencing and maybe – may get a little more interest in to be there for your promos? Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, the short answer to that is, yes, Jim. I think somewhat longer answer is that, that we believe in general we have an opportunity to improve the engagement in our pre-show. So to your point, it's getting bucks and seats is the key thing that we need to do in order to drive the value of that franchise, then one of the levels we have is dialing-up engagement in the pre-show. We certainly think interactive is one of the ways in doing that, but we are exploring all sorts of different ways, in which we might dial-up that engagement level. So, net, yes.

James Charles Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Barrington Research

All right. Thanks, very much. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Jim.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we have no further questions. I'll turn the call back over to Andy England for closing comments. Andrew J. England - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good. Well, thank you very much. And thank you everyone for the questions. As discussed, I think we feel we had a solid Q2 given that guidance Q3 is not where would have liked it to be in, but the net of all of this is that we will have an overall year that given that 2015 was a record year, 2016 will be a reasonable follow-up. But, as I said not where we wanted to be, but we have good grounds for optimism going forward with the film slate and conversations we're having heading into 2017. So, that's where we are. Thank you for tuning in and thanks for your investment.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.