Earnings Labs

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)

Q2 2013 Earnings Call· Fri, May 3, 2013

$89.48

+0.71%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2013 National Fuel Gas Company Earnings Conference Call. My name is Katina, and I will be your coordinator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Mr. Tim Silverstein, Director of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Timothy Silverstein

Analyst

Thank you, Katina, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us on today's conference call for a discussion of last evening's earnings release. With us on the call from National Fuel Gas Company are: Ron Tanski, President and Chief Executive Officer; Dave Bauer, Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer; and Matt Cabell, President of Seneca Resources Corporation. At the end of the prepared remarks, we will open the discussion to questions. Also a new slide deck was recently posted to our Investor Relations website, which we may refer to during today's call. We would like to remind you that today's teleconference will contain forward-looking statements. While National Fuel's expectations, beliefs and projections are made in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis, actual results may differ materially. These statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and you may refer to last evening's earnings release for a listing of certain specific risk factors. With that, we will begin with Ron Tanski.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Thanks, Tim. Good morning, everyone. As you saw in our earnings release, we had a really good quarter both financially and operationally. Consolidated earnings per share were up nearly 20%, helped by a 30% increase in earnings in our Pipeline and Storage segment. Additionally, total production increased 57% as a result of several exceptional new Marcellus wells turned online during the quarter. Once again, we believe that our diversified yet integrated structure helped to drive our performance with improved results coming from each of our operating segments. Before I move on with the rest of the call, I want to remind everyone that Dave Smith has moved up to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. Therefore, he won't be participating in these call or the day-to-day details of the business. However, don't expect any major change in the strategic course of the company. Dave and I have spent a lot of years together here at National Fuel and have viewed the growth opportunities of the company in much the same way. Under Dave's leadership during the last 3 years, National Fuel has invested more than $300 million on interstate pipeline projects and we've increased our contracted transportation capacity by 1 billion cubic feet per day. Over the same 3 years, in the Exploration and Production business, we've grown our Marcellus production from 0 to nearly 100 Bcf this fiscal year. And we've built a Midstream business of smaller-diameter, higher-pressure gathering pipeline from the ground-up. Looking forward, Seneca will continue to focus on the Marcellus, where our results continue to improve as evidenced by the outstanding performance of our Tract 100 wells in Lycoming County, Pennsylvania, with several wells achieving peak production rates north of 20 million cubic feet per day. These wells continue to exceed our initial expectations,…

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

Thanks, Ron. Good morning, everyone. Seneca produced 28.8 Bcfe in the second quarter of fiscal 2013, a 57% increase over last year's second quarter. Since our last earnings call, we brought on 7 new wells at Tract 100 in Lycoming County, Pennsylvania. 2 of these wells came on at rates in excess of 20 million cubic feet per day. And of the 14 wells that we brought on since mid-January, 6 have exceeded 20 million a day. The average 7-day rate for all 21 wells on Tract 100 is 13.3 million cubic feet per day. We expect to add 4 more Tract 100 wells this summer and another 5 well pads this fall. On our Western Pennsylvania legacy acreage, the Rich Valley well has been online now for a little more than a month. It hit a peak 24-hour rate of 8.1 million cubic feet per day and averaged 6.7 million over its first 30 days. Consequently, we are now estimating an EUR of 7 Bcf. We feel good about the potential of this area and are beginning the first phase of a development program with 2 wells drilled but not yet frac-ed and 7 more planned to be drilled and frac-ed in fiscal 2014. Given our fee ownership of the gas rights and consequent lack of royalty, we believe this area may have economics that are better than our successful Covington development in Tioga County. We've drilled 6 Marcellus wells in the Western development area since the beginning of the fiscal year, including the aforementioned 2 Rich Valley/Clermont wells and have begun to complete them. Most of these wells are in areas where the Marcellus has a very low water saturation. So we will be soaking each of them for at least 30 days. In addition to Rich Valley,…

David P. Bauer

Analyst

Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everyone. The second quarter was another outstanding quarter for National Fuel. Consolidated earnings of $1.02 per share were up $0.16 or almost 20% over the prior year's adjusted operating result. And that's in spite of a $0.66 per Mcf drop in the average after hedging natural gas price realized by Seneca. Colder weather on the Pennsylvania service territory of our utility was the biggest driver behind the earnings increase. If you recall, the winter of 2012 was the warmest on record in our service territory, which weighed heavily on last year's earnings. The weather this year was much closer to normal, which allowed our Utility earnings and cash flows to return to more historic levels. Earnings in the Pipeline and Storage segment were up almost 1/3 on the back of our recent Line N 2012 and Northern Access expansion projects. Consistent with our prior forecast, these projects will add $23 million in annual revenues per year, about $21 million of which will fall within fiscal '13. Seneca had another great quarter with adjusted EBITDA up by $23 million or 25%. And again, that's after a $0.66 per Mcf drop in realized natural gas prices, which impacted Seneca's cash flows by about $16 million. Operationally, all of Seneca performance metrics, including DD&A, LOEs and G&A in particular, showed significant improvements during the quarter. These cost structure improvements, which will drive enhanced profitability for Seneca in the future, reflect the evolution of Seneca's Marcellus program from the initial ramp-up phase to our current high-growth mode. Starting with DD&A. Seneca's per unit DD&A expense of $2.05 per Mcfe dropped significantly from both the $2.30 rate from last year and the $2.12 rate in the first quarter. This decrease was caused by a combination of better-than-expected reserve adds…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Andrea Sharkey representing Gabelli. Andrea Sharkey - Gabelli & Company, Inc.: I was just curious. Maybe talking about the Rich Valley, it seems like you guys are getting a lot more excited about that. And so as that ramps up, how are you planning on handling, I guess, midstream gathering, takeaway capacity, and then also the bigger pipeline capacity? Will you have to go to a third party for that? Or will you do that yourselves? And I guess, maybe help us just think about how that will progress.

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

Yes. Andrea, I think the first thing to understand is we can probably handle about 70 million a day with only some minor gathering lines put in. The National Fuel Line FM120 runs basically right through that Clermont area. So again we can get to about 70 million a day. Beyond that, we need a line that will -- more of a trunkline built. And as we kind of get through this pilot development stage, we'll be sizing that and figuring out exactly when and where and how we want to build it. So that would likely be our Midstream [indiscernible] . Andrea Sharkey - Gabelli & Company, Inc.: Okay, great. And then I guess, thinking about CapEx plans for -- beyond 2013 and looking at fiscal 2013, how much higher do you think it could go if this $4 or better natural gas environment holds? It will affect both your E&P Seneca spending and also maybe potentially move some pipeline projects faster. I guess, how should we maybe think about that and how you would handle funding a significant increase in '14 or beyond?

David P. Bauer

Analyst

Well, I mean, certainly we could be looking at spending a good amount more than our $770 million to $945 million that we've got for our fiscal '14 forecast. Now in terms of funding it, certainly higher gas prices help with that. And I think our balance sheet in the near term certainly can take on some additional leverage. That would be the first lever that we would look to.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Timm Schneider [ph] representing ISI.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

First question, in Lycoming County, are you guys restricting wells at all?

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

No. We don't bring them on as fast as possible. But we are not curtailed at all there.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Got it. And then how many wells do guys have in inventory right now that are completed, they're just not hooked up yet?

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

You mean specifically at 100 or everywhere?

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Everywhere.

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

We really only have 1 pad, that Pad C that I mentioned that has just sort of been drilled and sitting there. Everything else is sort of natural inventory. So let's see, at Tract 100, there's the 4 Pad D wells. We probably drilled all 5 of the Pad E wells so that would be 9 there at Tract 100. But they're not -- it's not as though we're making a decision not to complete them, they're just -- it's just a matter of timing because as you drill the pads, you've got to wait until the whole pad is drilled before you can begin the frac-ing operation. WDA, we've got another probably 7 wells that are not producing today. It's just a matter of time before we have them frac-ed and we have the flowlines built, so we can get them into production.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Got it. And this one's, I guess, a bigger-picture question. You guys -- for the majority of the Western acreage, you needed kind of the $4.50 -- $4.50 plus gas to really go into high ramp mode. Has that changed at all with you guys? You guys know the acreage now. You guys are becoming more efficient. Service costs are kind of trending down. Is that -- what do you think the chances are that, that $4.50 becomes a $4 or a sub $4 over the next couple of years here?

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

Well, I guess, what I'd say, Tim, is we're feeling pretty good about this Rich Valley/Clermont area at a, let's say, a $4 gas price, particularly as we've managed to drive down our costs in a full development mode. That said, we're drilling wells -- well, we've got 2 wells that are already drilled that need to be frac-ed and put online in that area. It'd be nice to have a few more data points besides just this 1 well. Or we could say for certain that this area is going to look great at $4.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

And just real quick on the pipeline set. How much gas are you guys flowing to Canada right now or on your system, I guess?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Right now, the system is only flowing minor amounts. While we've got the connection for our Northern Access moving a fair amount of gas northward, a lot of that is getting dropped off with the El Paso or the Tennessee system and some also into the Millennium system right now. The overall amount that's going to be going into Canada anytime soon, we can't say. TransCanada is working on some bottlenecks that they have up at Parkway to be able to get a bunch more of their production up further closer to Toronto.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

What do you guys think the long-term opportunity set for National Fuel Gas Company specifically is with respect to moving gas to Canada?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

To try to put a number over and above the capacity that we have available with our Empire system and the legacy connections at Niagara would take a major pipeline across Lake Erie or so. So I'd -- looking maximum right now with existing infrastructure, you're probably looking at 600 to 650 a day, maybe up to 700 a day with some more compression.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Tim Winter representing Gabelli & Company. Timothy M. Winter - Gabelli & Company, Inc.: I'm sorry to tag-team you here, guys, but I was wondering if we could talk a little bit more about the New York Utility and the overearning issue. What I'm trying to get to is maybe what the potential earning sensitivity is here. On Slide 38, you're showing on a trailing 12-month return of 12.6%, allowed at 9.1%, what is -- maybe what is the trailing 12 months earnings there at the New York Utility and whether the 100 basis point change in return on equity? Can you provide some color there?

David P. Bauer

Analyst

Yes. Well, I mean, certainly on the 100 basis point change in return on equity would be a few cents per share for the company. I think it's -- we're probably too early in the process to really say what the -- what we think the overall impact is going to be because we haven't really even sat down to start to talk to them about what a new arrangement might look like.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Yes. Tim, it's very, very early in this whole proceeding. So there's a lot of talking to be done. It's possible that we could even kick off or pick up again with the discussions regarding our settlement proposal or our earnings sharing mechanism that we had filed back in March. So it really needs to cook a little bit here with the commission. And we're going to have to wait to see what happens at their June session before they've fully reviewed our order to show cause filing.

Operator

Operator

With no further questions at this time, I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Tim Silverstein for any closing remarks.

Timothy Silverstein

Analyst

Thank you, Katina. We'd like to thank everyone for taking the time to be with us today. A replay of this call will be available at approximately 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on both our website and by telephone and will run through the close of business on Friday, May 10, 2013. To access the replay online, visit our Investor Relations website at investor.nationalfuelgas.com. And to access by telephone, call 1 (888) 286-8010 and enter passcode 25230200. This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you, and goodbye.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.