Earnings Labs

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 9, 2013

$89.48

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2013 National Fuel Gas Company Earnings Conference Call. My name is Gwen, and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today, Mr. Tim Silverstein. Please proceed.

Timothy Silverstein

Analyst

Thank you, Gwen, and good morning. We appreciate you joining us on today's conference call for a discussion of last evening's earnings release. With us on the call from National Fuel Gas Company are Ronald Tanski, President and Chief Executive Officer; Dave Bauer, Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer; and Matt Cabell, President of Seneca Resources Corporation. At the end of the prepared remarks, we will open the discussion to questions. This morning, we posted a new slide deck to our Investor Relations website. We may refer to it during today's call. I would also like to let everyone know that we have an Analyst Day scheduled in New York City for the morning of Tuesday, November 19. If you're a member of the investment community and would like to attend and have not received a save-the-date, please contact me directly. We would like to remind you that today's teleconference will contain forward-looking statements. While National Fuel's expectations, beliefs and projections are made in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis, actual results may differ materially. These statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and you may refer to last evening's earnings release for a listing of certain specific risk factors. With that, we will begin with Ron Tanski.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Thanks, Tim, and good morning, everyone. We've published a lot of information recently. With the combination of Seneca's operational update at the end of July, last evening's earnings release and the update of our Investor Relations slide deck, we believe we provided a fair amount of clarity on our future growth opportunities. Now we're going to switch up the order of our discussion this morning. Dave Bauer is going to provide some more color on our quarterly earnings details and give us a look at our preliminary 2014 forecast. And then Matt Cabell will discuss Seneca's results in more detail. Then I'll have a few more comments before we open up the line for questions. And here's Dave Bauer.

David P. Bauer

Analyst

Thanks, Ron, and good morning, everyone. Starting with our results for the quarter. As you saw in last night's release, we had another terrific quarter with earnings and EBITDA up in each of our major operating segments. Consolidated earnings of $0.69 per share were up by 1/3 compared to last year, and that's in spite the $0.06 per share income tax charge at Seneca. Consolidated EBITDA increased by more than 30%. Seneca had a really great quarter. Thanks to the impressive wells at Tract 100, production was up 54% compared to last year's quarter and, on a sequential basis, up 18% compared to the second quarter of this year. That production increase, combined with an increase in after hedging, oil and gas prices, was the primary driver behind the $0.12 per share or 45% increase in Seneca's earnings. On the expense side, per unit DD&A expense of $1.97 per Mcfe was down significantly from both last year and from the second quarter of this year. This was driven by a substantial reserve add to Tract 100, combined with pricing and performance-related revisions across our Appalachian acreage. Per unit LOE expense was up $0.08 per Mcfe over last year, largely due to higher transportation costs at Tract 100 and higher well workover and steaming costs in California. With respect to the transportation costs, the rates on the Trout Run system in Lycoming County are higher than on the Covington system, and thus, as Seneca produces more gas from Tract 100, we expect transportation costs to shift a little bit higher. Keep in mind that these costs are paid to our NFG midstream subsidiary, which saw a similar jump in earnings. NFG Midstream is becoming a more meaningful piece of the company. It generated substantially all of the $9.6 million of EBITDA…

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. As Dave mentioned, Seneca produced 34.1 Bcfe in the third quarter of fiscal '13, a 54% increase over last year's third quarter. In California, production continues to be slightly below our forecast. At CESP, the natural gas pipeline operator installed new compression, but it had only a minimal impact, and 200 to 300 Boe per day remains curtailed. Meanwhile, some of our older production has declined a bit faster than anticipated. The net result is that West Division production was 5.8% below last year's level for the third quarter. However, with plans for additional work on the CESP pipeline this fall, and new wells coming on at CESP, South Midway Sunset and Coalinga, we do expect to see growth in California in 2014. Moving on to our Mississippian Lime play in Kansas, we have successfully negotiated an increase in our working interest on what was originally our non-operated position. We now hold a 55% interest in this acreage and have taken over as operator. With this transaction, our total net acreage position is now 13,600 acres. We expect to spud our first horizontal well in November. In the Marcellus, our net production grew by over 50 million cubic feet per day from the second quarter to the third quarter as we brought on new Lycoming County wells. We will bring on one additional 5-well pad in late August. We expect production to be flat or up moderately in the next 2 quarters, with more significant increases in mid-2014 as we bring on 2 multi-well pads at Tract 100. Specifically, Pad N is a 7-well pad scheduled to come on this winter and Pad T is a 10-well pad scheduled for first production in the May, July timeframe. Note that a 10-well pad can produce…

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Thanks, Matt. Well, to sum it all up, we had a great quarter. Not just because of the solid numbers that we posted for the quarter and for the continuing trend in EBITDA growth that we started a number of years ago, but mostly for the recent success on our WDA acreage that sets up continued growth for our upstream exploration and production operations and our midstream pipeline operations for the foreseeable future. Specifically, in the Exploration and Production segment, we had at least 2 years of Marcellus drilling activity in Tioga and Lycoming counties, and we're excited about the running room we have on our WDA acreage that Matt detailed. And while the immediate opportunities in California aren't as large as our Appalachian prospects, our California operations and our new Kansas entry into the Mississippian Lime play, provide us with both commodity and basin diversity. It shouldn't be surprising that more than 2/3 of our overall capital spending during the past 4 years and projected spending in fiscal 2014 will be in the Exploration and Production segment. Just as Seneca is having success in the Marcellus, so are other producers, and they all need to get their gas supplies to market. Our midstream pipeline businesses have a number of projects designed to get both Seneca's and third-party production flowing. We've laid out those projects in our slide deck, so I won't spend a lot of time here on all the projects. There are 3 points, however, that are worth noting. The first is the addition of our Clermont gathering system to the project list. Based on our early well results on the Clermont acreage, we've committed to build a trunk line system with a design capacity of 500 million cubic feet per day. The second is a project that's…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Carl Kirst with BMO Capital.

Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

Maybe just a first question on the capital budget and specifically, the E&P capital budget, the $550 million to $650 million. We had always kind of thought maybe the decision of adding a fourth rig might be the big swing factor there. But if that's based on a kind of 3-rig program through the year, what's the -- what would be the primary swing factor in that CapEx budget?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

I'm not sure that I fully understand your question, Carl. You mean, what would be -- what makes for the $100 million range?

Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

Yes, sir.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Well, a couple of things. One would be the activity level in Kansas, which would then be somewhat dependent on our success there. Another is our leasing activity in Lycoming County. It's not a huge number, but it could have an impact on that total. And I guess the third one is, is really more our pace of drilling and completions. If you frac a 6-well pad in 1 year versus another year, that can have a, say, a $25 million swing. So it's kind of a mix of all those factors.

Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

Okay. Now that's helpful. And -- so really the issue of kind of shifting from $595 million over to Clermont rather than adding a new rig at Clermont is just primarily an issue of gas price and bases at this point, kind of, I guess, same as it’s always been as far as the gaining factor?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Yes. For adding additional rigs beyond the 3? Yes.

Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

Right, okay. If I could ask one other question, just cost-wise and understanding that we're still sort of in this delineation and, perhaps, science experiment. But now that we've sort of gone officially in Clermont to a full development program, can you give us a sense of what you're expecting well costs to be? I don't know whether you can cite either -- the latest one, I think you said it was the 9H, or just general, what's your expectations are? But just want to make sure I've got that ring fenced.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Yes. Let me give it to you in terms of our expectations. As we go into this full development program, our expectation is that we'll be drilling wells that have, say, a 5,000 to 6,000-foot treatable lateral length. So they'll have, say, 33 to 40 stages. And the complete -- drilling complete cost for those would be $6.5 million to $7.5 million. So they're not cheap wells, but -- they're not cheap because they're long laterals with a lot of stages. And that's another reason why they are so effective. And we found that the bang for your buck is significantly better on longer laterals with more stages.

Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

Excellent. And then last question, Dave, and I apologize I was writing this down in your prepared comments. You said, turning to taxes, that the tax rate, you expect it to be 40% to 41% going forward. Did you make a mention of what you expected the sort of current deferred split to be in 2014, assuming no more bonus depreciation?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

No, I didn't say that, but we don't expect to be paying any current taxes in '13 or '14.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Becca Followill with U.S. Capital Advisors.

Rebecca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors LLC, Research Division

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

Just a couple of follow-ups. On the firm capacity or the firm sales that you have on the E&P side, can you quantify how much do you have under firm?

David P. Bauer

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

Yes. Becca, we've got $125 million a day, firm, into TGP 300 and $155 million into Transco. And then we have another sort of $30 million to $70 million in the National Fuel system.

Rebecca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors LLC, Research Division

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

And then on the 9-well pad, I think, it was 92, we're looking to begin drilling on the Clermont area, what's the timing for that to go into service?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

I think we'll have it drilled and completed, certainly, by the end of the summer. But I'm not sure if the gathering line will be complete by that date. So I would say, for forecasting purposes, I would assume around the first of our next fiscal year.

Rebecca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors LLC, Research Division

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

So that's what's built into your guidance?

David P. Bauer

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

Yes.

Rebecca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors LLC, Research Division

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

Okay. So not really a '14 impact?

David P. Bauer

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

Right. Clermont does not have -- other than the 2 wells that we've already drilled, doesn't have a material impact on fiscal '14.

Rebecca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors LLC, Research Division

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

And then to your comments on structure, and, I think, I was writing down also as you guys were talking, I believe you said that, it's over the next 3 quarters, you'll kind of evaluate what you want to do, how quickly you want to ramp up in that area and that really will kind of drive your decision on whether or not you need that capital to form an MLP, is that correct?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

Well, Becca, it's really over the next few quarters, we're going to be looking at gas pricing and basis, to see if there is a way that we can provide a little bit more clarity with respect to future cash flows that might be -- well, that would form the basis of ultimate dropdowns in an MLP format, or really just the economics of drilling the wells in the WDA.

Rebecca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors LLC, Research Division

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

So what specifically are you looking for? What would be the threshold that would drive that decision?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

Well, again, the pricing. I mean, Matt talked about a netback of $3.50 to $4 to Seneca for the production in that area. And as you know, basis is, as Dave mentioned, is struggling a little bit at Dominion South Point these days, and it's really tough to get any kind of long-term contracts out of that area right now.

Rebecca Followill - U.S. Capital Advisors LLC, Research Division

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

And then finally, just in light of that, of the bottlenecks that we're seeing, and they're really compressed, or the wide basis that we're seeing, any progress on your West-to-East project?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors.

No, not -- no major progress. That's still sitting out there because with the -- what we're seeing for the dry gas portion, other producers out there haven't been actively drilling a lot of wells, looking for capacity. Everyone, as you know, is concentrating on the wet gas window.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Tim Winter with Gabelli. Timothy M. Winter - Gabelli & Company, Inc.: I was wondering if you could talk a bit more about the show cause order process? That slide on Page, I think, 37, shows the most recent plan was the 9.4% allowed ROE. Where are you guys trailing 12 months? And what is sort of built into your guidance for 2014?

David P. Bauer

Analyst

Well, for the trailing 12 months, we're a good amount higher than that. I don't have the exact number at my fingertips. In terms of guidance, we've assumed a -- that we, ultimately, reach a settlement, that we're -- as I said earlier, we're in settlement discussions currently. And that's a confidential process, so there's -- I'm kind of limited in what I can say, but we have taken the -- an assumed settlement into account in our guidance. Timothy M. Winter - Gabelli & Company, Inc.: Okay. And if, for some reason, there wasn't a settlement, what would sort of the timeframe be of an official rate case decision?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Well, as I understand it, there isn't a set end date to the show cause proceeding, unlike a typical rate case, where there's a procedural schedule. This, as I understand it, can -- doesn't have a set end date.

David P. Bauer

Analyst

But to put some outside parameters around that, I mean, if we envision that settlement discussions weren't heading anywhere, in particular, or productive, we'd be looking at filing a case, and that would put an 11-month statutory timeframe on coming up with a final rate decision. Timothy M. Winter - Gabelli & Company, Inc.: Okay. But then rates would still be temporary as of June 14th?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

That's right.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Holly Stewart.

Holly Stewart - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst

Just 2 quick ones. First, for Matt. In Tioga, Matt, given the decline in gas prices, are you still planning on bringing that multi-well pad on?

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

Yes, we are, Holly. We have $125 million of firm sales there. The other wells, obviously, are declining, as you'd expect them to be. And the timing works out good for us to bring that on. The other thing is, it's first production will come on just about the same time that some of the new projects are completed in the Northeast. So we're hopeful that the significant basis differential will allow for spot sales as well.

Holly Stewart - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst

What specifically is that timing?

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

There are several projects that come on in November.

Holly Stewart - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. So this is supposed to hit the fiscal '14?

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

I'm sorry. Are you asking what time does Pad C come on? Or are you asking when the other projects are that are related to the issues?

Holly Stewart - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst

Well, the Tioga pad, specifically.

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

Yes, the Tioga pad, we'll begin frac-ing it very soon, probably have it online by November, December kind of time frame.

Holly Stewart - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. So that's in your guidance?

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

Yes, it is.

Holly Stewart - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then you mentioned beginning to test some of the wetter areas. How are you guys planning on handling liquids?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Well, the less wet areas, we can handle with ethane rejection. So even something like Owl's Nest, we can probably handle with ethane rejection. When you get further west to something like our Tiny Nest [ph] area, it's going to require some kind of ethane solution, and those should be some significant value add for the heavies there. So at this point, our goal is to get a test on this well, see what it'll do. A long-term development solution would require a lot more planning.

Operator

Operator

There are no other questions at this time.

Timothy Silverstein

Analyst

Thank you, Gwen. We'd like to thank everyone for taking the time to be with us today. A replay of this call will be available at approximately 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on both our website and by telephone, and will run through the close of business on Friday, August 16, 2013. To access the replay online, visit our Investor Relations website at investor.nationalfuelgas.com. And to access by telephone, call 1 (888) 286-8010 and enter passcode 99154741. This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you and goodbye.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.