Donald W. Seale
Analyst · Chris Wetherbee with Citi
Thank you, Wick, and good afternoon, everyone. The first quarter revenue of $2.7 billion was down $51 million or 2% compared to first quarter of last year, as a $131 million decline in our coal market more than offset revenue gains achieved in intermodal and merchandise. With respect to yield, revenue per unit declined by 5% due to a 13% decline in coal RPU. Merchandise revenue per unit was up $70 or 3%, and intermodal revenue per unit was flat compared to first quarter 2012. Negative mix in price, mostly associated with export coal, accounted for $85 million of the overall revenue decline for the quarter, and fuel surcharge revenue was down $51 million. On the plus side, higher volume contributed a positive $85 million into the revenue variance. With respect to volume, total shipments for the quarter were up 3% as strong intermodal gains more than offset declines in coal and merchandise. Merchandise results were mixed as 2 of the groups, Metals & Construction and Agriculture, experienced declines, while first quarter volumes for chemicals and automotive increased year-over-year, while paper volumes were flat. Now turning to the individual market segments. Coal revenue of $635 million was down $131 million or 17% for the quarter. As we saw in the fourth quarter of 2012, weaker demand across most markets contributed to this decline, along with a materially weaker pricing environment for export metallurgical coal. Our largest decline in volume occurred within the utility sector, which experienced a decrease of 21,000 loads or 9%. Continued reduction of stockpiles, which were built as a result of weak demand in the 2011-2012 winter, was the largest single contributor to this decline, coupled with competition from natural gas. Overall, this had a more pronounced volume impact at our longer-haul Southern utilities, which were down 16%, while shorter-haul Northern utility volumes declined by only 3%. Export volumes were up 21% in car-loadings and 25% in tonnage for the quarter, due to increased handling of thermal coal and increased met coal shipments through both the ports of Baltimore and Lamberts Point. In the U.S. market, domestic metallurgical volumes were down 14% for the quarter due to weaker steel production and the continued impact of the RG Steel bankruptcy, which we reported last quarter, a comp which we will clear beginning in the third quarter of this year. And finally, industrial coal volumes was down 10% due to weaker demand and improved equipment efficiency at selected coal-fired industrial plants. Now turning to our intermodal network. Revenue in the quarter reached $573 million, up $46 million, or 9% over the first quarter of 2012, driven by 9% higher volumes. As depicted on Slide 5, the volume gains in intermodal came from both our domestic and international markets. Domestic volume was up 7% due to continued highway conversions and the opening of new Crescent Corridor lanes in the quarter, while organic growth across our international accounts boosted international volume by 13%. As in previous quarters, we continued our strong focus on increased efficiency across our intermodal network. During the quarter, 95% of containers in both domestic and international market segments moved on stack cars, a metric which highlights loading efficiency and equipment utilization. This was a 5 percentage point improvement compared to the first quarter of 2012, and in turn, total intermodal crew starts were only up 1% on a 9% volume increase for the quarter. Now turning to our merchandise markets depicted on Slide 7. Merchandise revenue was up 2%, reaching $1.5 billion for the quarter. This increase came as a result of higher revenue per unit for the quarter, which was up 3%. Reduced domestic raw steel production, which was down 8% in the quarter, combined with the impact of the RG Steel bankruptcy, contributed to an overall decline in steel volumes of 7%. Aggregate shipments were also down for the quarter due to a weaker highway construction market and declines in frac sand as natural gas drilling rig counts continued to decline in the quarter. This combination of factors led to an overall 6% decline in Metals & Construction volume. In our agricultural markets, reduced corn volumes to processors and the impact of ethanol plant closures contributed to a 3% decline in shipments, though we saw strong gains in fertilizer and soybeans for the quarter. Fertilizer demand is particularly strong this year due to low carryover grain inventories and anticipated increases in acreage to be planted this spring. On the plus side, chemicals volume was up 10% due primarily to growth in crude by rail business, which accounted for over 13,000 shipments in the quarter. Automotive volumes were up 2% despite a slight decline in projected North American vehicle production during the quarter. And paper and forest products volumes were essentially flat for the quarter as a rebound in the housing market contributed to an 11% improvement at lumber volumes, which was offset by weaker volumes of graphic paper. Now concluding with our outlook. The market ahead continues to be mostly positive, but we face continuing headwinds across our coal markets. Competition from natural gas, and flat to declining electricity demand will continue to impact our utility coal franchise. But firming natural gas prices reflect some relief in utility dispatched curves, looking ahead. With respect to export metallurgical coal demand, we see continued sluggish demand in Europe and slowing shipments into Asia. In the met export market, we've seen some marginal improvement in world pricing. In this regard, we're continuing to price our services on a quarterly basis. And in view of improving world prices, some modest increases were applied for met coal exports starting April 1 for the second quarter. So with that said, U.S. coals will continue to be challenged to remain competitive from a total cost perspective, which makes this market choppy and uncertain at best. Also, thermal coal exports will face lower yields associated with the weak API 2 index into Europe. In view of these challenges in both met and thermal coal exports, we do not expect our export volumes for the rest of the year to be as strong as those in the first quarter. And finally, with respect to domestic met coal here in the U.S., we see a weaker market ahead until we finally clear the RG Steel comp in the third quarter. Turning to intermodal, we anticipate a continuation of solid opportunities for highway conversion as we launch new service lanes and ramp up volumes at our newly opened terminals. We also expect continued growth within our international segment, though at a more moderate pace than we saw in the first quarter. In merchandise, we continue to expect growth in 3 of our 5 business groups in the months ahead led by chemicals, automotive and housing-related materials. In the other 2 markets, Metals & Construction and agriculture, we anticipate flat to modest declines in the first half, with an improving outlook for the second half of the year. Wrapping up, in summary, we expect that our diverse market base will continue to provide volume growth ahead despite the challenges that we face in the coal market. And we remain committed to market-based pricing at levels that equal or exceed the rate of rail inflation over time as we provide excellent service to our customers. Thank you for your time. And Mark, I'll now turn it to you for the operations report.