Earnings Labs

Northwestern Energy Group Inc (NWE)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 27, 2023

$72.14

-0.48%

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Transcript

Travis Meyer

Management

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining NorthWestern Energy Group's Financial Results Webcast for the quarter ended September 30, 2023. My name is Travis Meyer. I'm the Director of Corporate Development and Investor Relations Officer for NorthWestern. Joining us today to walk you through the results and provide an overall update are Brian Bird, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Crystal Lail, Chief Financial Officer. All participant lines are currently muted. After the presentation, we have allotted time for a Q&A session. I'll provide instructions for asking questions at that time. However, if you intend to ask a question or joining us by computer, please set your Zoom identity to your first and last name and firm so we can call on you by name and let you know when your line is open. NorthWestern's results have been released and the release is available on our website at northwesternenergy.com. We also released our 10-Q pre-market this morning. Please note that this company's press release, this presentation, comments by presenters and responses to your question may contain forward-looking statements. As such, I will direct you to the disclosures contained within our SEC filings and safe harbor provisions included in the second slide of this presentation. Please also note, this presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the non-GAAP disclosures, definitions, and reconciliations also included in the presentation today. The webcast is being recorded. The archived replay of today's call will be available for one year beginning at 6 p.m. Eastern today, and can be found in the financial results section of our website. With that, I'll turn the presentation over to NorthWestern CEO, Brian Bird.

Brian Bird

Management

Thanks, Travis. First of all, we just completed our Board meetings for the third quarter in here in South Dakota. And matter of fact, last night, we celebrated the 100th birthday of NorthWestern Public Service. Many of you may remember, in 2012, we celebrated the 100th birthday of the Montana Power Company. So, now all of our businesses has achieved 100th birthday. In fact, actually, it will be this -- November 27, will be the actual date, because back on 11/27/1923, three employees from the Albert Emmanuel Company incorporated NorthWestern Public Service Corporation. And just a little bit more history there, this company owned many utilities in the Ohio, Pennsylvania, and other Midwestern states. And the reason that they named this NorthWestern Public Service Company is because after its incorporation, it was the group of assets that were most NorthWestern of all the assets they own. So, a little bit of history to start. For the quarter, the highlights certainly have to do with providing guidance both for '23 and '24. I think from '23's perspective, our diluted earnings per share, $3 to $3.10 per share, for 2024, $3.42 to $3.62. Crystal will give more color on the guidance of each of these and then also on our long-term growth rates. Regarding those long-term growth rates, we are increasing our long-term, I think, five-years, rate base and earnings per share growth rate targets to 4% to 6%. Much of this now hinges upon unanimous approval of a constructive multi-party settlement in the Montana rate review, resulting in electric and natural gas increases of $67.4 million -- excuse me, $14.1 million, respectively, as rates go into effect November 1, 2023. And I know Crystal will talk about this more, but I'm going to stop for a second, just to point out,…

Crystal Lail

Management

Thank you, Brian. And I echo your comments on coming up on the 100-year anniversary. We've been here for about 20 years of that. Feel pretty privileged to work here and work with this team, so that's a pretty cool accomplishment in getting to celebrate with those in the community and here on last night was wonderful. So with that, my comments today, I will discuss our third quarter results. I will also provide more commentary, as Brian alluded to, with regard to our release of 2023 and 2024 earnings guidance along with a bit of detail on our financing plans and how we're thinking about that going forward. So, Slide 5, first, for the quarter. On a GAAP basis, we had an improvement of $1.9 million or $0.01 increase. On the non-GAAP basis, that was an improvement of $4.2 million or $0.05 or 11.4% versus the quarter in 2022. To give you a bit more detail on that, turning to the quarterly variance, I'll take you to Slide 8. Among the major items, when you look at the drivers for the quarter, you see margin improvement, which added $0.11, and that was offset by the continuing trends between depreciation and interest expense, and importantly, also $0.03 of dilution from our share issuance. For a bit more detail on the quarter and how margin, that $0.11 shaped up, I'll move you to Slide 9. You can see, we had an improvement of $0.10, driven by interim rates in Montana. I would also tell you for the quarter, we saw a cooler summer weather. It was also wet across our service territories. A bit of variance there between the months. But I would remind you that last year in Q3, us and much of Pacific Northwest saw very warm hot weather,…

Brian Bird

Management

Thanks, Crystal. Crystal mentioned investment, on the left-hand side, near the top here, it shows our five-year history of capital investment. As you can see over time, we've ramped up our investment as we need to over $2.1 billion over this five-year period and nearly 16% CAGR associated with that. The level of investment on a going-forward basis, this is 2023 through '27, five-year forecast, it's $2.4 billion. Two-thirds of that is in the T&D side of our business. That investment doesn't include other supply opportunities or other opportunities that may result. As a matter of fact, we will update our '24 to '28 capital plan at the EEI Conference. As Crystal pointed out, this is consistent with our rate base growth of 4% to 6% and again financed without the need for equity. Moving forward, you guys, I'm sure, been following along on the HoldCo. We're trading today at the same ticker, but we're now NorthWestern Energy Group. And I think, I'll give you the five reasons why we did the holding company, though I'm sure many of you certainly know all of these. First and foremost, it's a common industry structure, not all but one of our peers have a holding company. Number two, it provides great flexibility for financing options. Three, from an individual utility jurisdiction, we certainly line up our assets and debt obligations with our legal entity structure. Four, we protect customers ultimately in these entities and these jurisdictional entities with ring-fencing. And five, it allowed us to exit from a bankruptcy stipulation, where 20 years has since passed and is no longer relevant, but certainly important for us to enter into this bankruptcy -- excuse me, into this holding company in order to remove ourselves from the bankruptcy stipulation. So, certainly pleased with how…

Travis Meyer

Management

A - Travis Meyer

Operator

Thank you, Brian and Crystal. [Operator Instructions] And we will take our first question from Jonathan Reeder at Wells Fargo, please. Jonathan, you should be unmuted.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

All right, can you hear me okay then?

Travis Meyer

Management

Sure, can.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

Yeah, there was a new dialog box that popped up this time. So [indiscernible] Yeah, no, thanks for taking my questions, team. So, in terms of the equity, is it safe to assume that the new five-year plan that you'll presumably rollout at EEI will be self-funded as well? In other words, no equity absent larger projects such as new generation or something coming into the fold?

Crystal Lail

Management

Yeah. Hey, Jonathan, and happy Friday afternoon. I'll take that one. And yes, it is safe to assume we're sizing our capital plans consistent with no equity as we think about those current plans.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

Okay. Figured that'd be the case that you wouldn't say no equity today and then two weeks later change it. So...

Crystal Lail

Management

I feel like that would not be a good move from an industry perspective, so no.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

Great. So, moving on to some regulatory stuff, I think you've typically reached settlements in South Dakota. Do you expect that, that will be the case again this time around? Or is the size of the request large enough that the key parties will want to fully litigate it?

Crystal Lail

Management

I would certainly expect that we will continue to work with staff from an advocacy perspective and would expect that we would reach a settlement there.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

Great. And then, last one for me is, I know you just completed the Montana rate case and congratulations on that outcome, but just wanted to see if you're still thinking that the rate case cadence could be every two years or does the one-time adjustment for Yellowstone County under the settlement allow you to push out the next Montana filing a little longer?

Brian Bird

Management

Yeah, Jonathan, I think I'd say this. To me, we have to evaluate what's the best way to start getting recovery of our costs of Yellowstone. Obviously, we'll continue construction into 2024 with the hopes of having it done this before summer peak, certainly in the third quarter. But we have to look at the best way to recover our costs, and in fact, if that means filing a rate review with [known any measurable] (ph), that would have to come into play. I think one thing to keep in mind here what we just had an outcome on Wednesday was a 2021 test year, right, and we're approaching 2024. Our investment continues to go up, our cost continues to go up, including interest expense And so, there is continued pressure here. And as you heard Crystal mention earlier, we want to earn as to close to our authorized returns as we possibly can in essence to deliver what we're committing here today, we need to stay on top of that. But we need to certainly think through that. There's another alternative to try to collect costs on Yellowstone we can think about. But we have to consider all of that and in very short order to be quite frank.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

Okay. No, great. Again, congrats on the outcome and look forward to seeing you guys at EEI.

Brian Bird

Management

Thanks, Jonathan.

Travis Meyer

Management

Thanks, Jonathan. We will take our next question from a telephone line with the last four digits of 5805. Hello?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. This is [Tanner James] (ph) stepping in for Julien of Bank of America. How are you guys doing?

Travis Meyer

Management

Good. Good to see, Tanner. Or good to hear you, I guess, Tanner.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thanks. Given the pretty constructive rate increase outcome and you're guiding -- you upgraded the guide from -- on the low end of your long-term EPS CAGR, what are the different factors you observed that could help you get to the top end of your stated annual growth range? Is the growth rate fairly linear, or is it more lumpy perhaps depending on rate case filing?

Crystal Lail

Management

Tanner, this is Crystal. I'll take a shot at it, and then Brian can pile on here. But we certainly -- everyone will acknowledge, we've been lumpy in the past and when you have a historic test period across our jurisdictions, lack of kind of a formulary or future looking, I think we will continue to be lumpy. And certainly, as you think of what drives us into the upper end of our range versus lower, it will be how that recovery is timed that will do that. And then the other piece is any opportunities incremental to what we're doing here, obviously, would push us upward in that range.

Brian Bird

Management

I would say this, I think we're already demonstrating a tad lumpy this year. We used 2022 as a base year. Obviously, when you look at '23's results and then guides to '24, that in and of itself demonstrates lumpiness. I think the previous question from Jonathan in terms of cadence here, it's just hard and obviously we could offset in other jurisdictions when we're coming in for rate reviews. But I just think it is going be a tad lumpy.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Understood. Thank you. And you stated in your investment program that it sides for no equity issuance unless there's future generation capacity additions or other strategic opportunities. What could other strategic opportunities look like? Is there anything you guys would actively consider on that front?

Brian Bird

Management

Yeah, that's a great question. I think we continue to look at transmission investment opportunities, and something like that could come into play. And we just need to understand also those opportunities, the ability to how quickly we could recover those costs as well have to come into play. So things like that.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Understood. Great. Thank you very much, guys.

Travis Meyer

Management

Thanks, Tanner. All right, we'll take our next question from Jamieson Ward at Guggenheim. You should be unmuted, Jamieson.

Jamieson Ward

Analyst

Yeah, can hear me?

Travis Meyer

Management

Yeah.

Brian Bird

Management

Yeah, we can hear you Jamieson. How you doing?

Jamieson Ward

Analyst

Perfect. I did the star-nine, and the unmute on the screen, and I think I dialed in the code correctly, and did the formula, and you guys have made it simpler than it has been in the past while, so thank you for that. First of all, just quickly congratulations on a great result there. I wanted to ask specific to the HoldCo, because a few of my other questions have been asked already, so I'll move past those. So basically, now that you have a HoldCo, should we read anything into the zero equity issuance plan associated with your current capital plan as implying that HoldCo leverage like many or all of your peers who have HoldCos have done will be a source of funding that will allow you to go from being an equity issuer in recent years to no longer being one while still kind of maintaining the same CapEx profile, or is there something else to read into there?

Crystal Lail

Management

Jamieson, it's Crystal, I'll take that one. And I would say, no, there's nothing to read into that. My comments on our structure are this, we're still the same company in the capital structure. We don't anticipate being different than it was before. We've always carried a degree of debt on our revolver to finance our program. We will continue to do that, but no intention to look at the capital structure in a different way. Our thoughts on equity in the plan are two things. It's got to -- if you're going to issue equity currently in this environment and where utilities are trading, I think it's really got to be for accretive growth. And so, regardless of the HoldCo structure or not, our plan is to issue equity when it makes sense and when investors will see the growth that's behind that. And absent that, sizing our capital plan to make sure we're keeping customer bills in mind, keeping our balance sheet in mind, but also keeping the ability to keep the lights on and the gas flowing in mind, it's a challenge, but we think it's important in the current environment to have no equity in the plan, regardless of structure.

Jamieson Ward

Analyst

Got you. Thank you for that. And in the case that you do end up making use of leverage at the HoldCo for one reason or another as time goes on, it's something that you'll have available to you. Do you have any concerns around the commission eventually imputing double leverage?

Crystal Lail

Management

You're way ahead of me, Jamieson. Our message to the commission and the ring-fencing we set up is same company. It's the structure every other utility uses. And certainly, HoldCo leverage is no longer free as it was for a while or close to darn free. So, we have no intentions there. The message we've given our commissioner and our filings is any of our unsecured borrowings are not in our capital structure. And none of this change. While it's a legal restructuring, changes any of that message to the commission on how we think about our capital structure.

Jamieson Ward

Analyst

Got you. Thank you. Very clear. And that's it for HoldCo questions. Just had, well, I guess two more quick ones here. One was just, how many years does the no equity commitment last? I know the question was asked earlier about whether when you roll forward to the five-year plan, would you be changing the messaging, and you said you wouldn't be doing that. But just wondering if you can give us any additional color on how long that might hold for.

Crystal Lail

Management

Jamieson, I think your question is a little similar to Jonathan's, which it will definitely hold for three weeks until EEI, but that's my sarcasm coming through. As we think about our current five-year plan, there's no equity in that. I would tell you very candidly, every year, we're going to take a look at that. We're going to take a look at what financing makes sense and what our opportunities are in the plan. But as we plan out that current five-year plan and what we will roll forward at EEI on the CapEx side, we intend to hold to the no equity as long as the current environment looks like it does. But we will continue to evaluate that and update you guys on an annual basis like we always do.

Jamieson Ward

Analyst

Got it. Thank you. And then, the timing of rate cases was already answered, lumpiness was answered. Last one I have is, were there any asks that you had in this case, which in hindsight it might not have been the right time for, but anything that you might potentially reincorporate into your next rate filing and look to maybe achieve, accomplish, or add to your regulatory tools at that point in time?

Brian Bird

Management

That's a good question, Jamieson. I would say it this way. We tried some methods. We deviated from just the historical test year concept and just going with that. We tried some trackers. We believe all three of those make great sense. We obviously through the settlement got the deferral on our wildfire program, which is very, very helpful for us to obviously be able to allocate more dollars to that program. And we're going to have to continue to look at those types of trackers and other mechanisms to help us recover quicker. And we believe ultimately over time, we'll persuade not only the commission, but the intervening parties just from the ability to make it an easier means to recover our costs, and maybe allow us not to be as frequent filers from a rate review perspective.

Jamieson Ward

Analyst

Got it. Thank you very much. Appreciate the answers.

Crystal Lail

Management

Thanks, Jamieson.

Brian Bird

Management

Hey, Jamieson, one other thing for you, you guys ask the hard questions, so we kind of want to make it hard for you to get in to ask yours. So, just so you know.

Jamieson Ward

Analyst

No worries.

Travis Meyer

Management

Thank you, Jamieson.

Brian Bird

Management

Just kidding.

Jamieson Ward

Analyst

Thanks, again.

Travis Meyer

Management

Have a good weekend. And with that, we've exhausted all of our questions. So, if Brian, any closing comments?

Brian Bird

Management

Yeah, I think, from my perspective, Crystal mentioned 20 years, it'll be my 20 years, December 3rd in 2023 here. Travis certainly been with us 20 years as well and 60 years from the three of us. The collective executive team, many of those folks have over 30 years' experience, some new, but from my perspective, it's the people at this company that make this a great company. I certainly appreciate working with you two, but I certainly reach out to all of our employees and thank them as well. It's a great company.

Travis Meyer

Management

Thank you, Brian. With that, you may disconnect. And obviously, if there's any other questions, please feel free to reach out. Have a good day and a great weekend.