Earnings Labs

Northwestern Energy Group Inc (NWE)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 15, 2024

$72.14

-0.48%

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Transcript

Brian Bird

Management

Thanks, Travis. The first slide here, we talk about recent highlights. We just had two days of Board meetings. And one of the recent highlights was our ability to serve our customers in a cold snap in the middle of January. And really, that cold snap will be demonstrated two things. One, it demonstrates our need for capacity. So the importance of the Yellowstone County plant and the incremental coal strip that we'll be adding in 1/1/26 that's the first thing. The second thing is just a fantastic coordination of our operating folks to serve our customers when they need it most. That means days of minus 45-degree weather, very, very proud of our team and our ability to serve our customers. So the points on this particular page, recent highlights, reported GAAP diluted EPS of $3.22 for the year and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.27. We're affirming our 2024 diluted EPS guidance of $3.42 to $3.62. We're also affirming our long term five year rate base and earnings per share growth rate targets of 4% to 6%. And I'd also like to point out we had unanimous approval of multi-party rate review settlements. In Montana, both our electric and natural gas rate reviews. In South Dakota, our electric brake review. We completed the second and final phase of the holding company reorganization on January 1, 2024, certainly can't overlook the monumental task that was and the great work throughout our company to make that happen. And we have also declared a dividend for the quarter of $0.65 per share payable March 9, 2024, to shareholders of record as of March 15, 2024. And lastly, a recent highlight for us. Certainly, you talked about it before, but northwestern celebrating 100 powerful years. You may recall back in 2012, Montana Power…

Crystal Lail

Management

Thank you, Brian, spoken like a former CFO, as always. So good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our year end financial performance here. Brian was highlighting what felt like a year of a lot of execution, I can tell you on the side of the house. And all of that led to the financial performance that we're closing out here, we're going to speak to, but highlighting specifically the element of regulatory execution, and that theme will continue throughout my remarks regarding our financial performance. As Brian mentioned, closing out the quarter on a non-GAAP basis, we reported EPS of $1.38 in Q4 of 2023, that's versus $1.13 in the fourth quarter of 2022. For a full year perspective on 2023, on a non-GAAP basis, we delivered $3.27 and that's versus $3.18 in 2022. Moving to Slide 7 for a bit more detail. I'll talk about the fourth quarter and give you a bit of color there and then talk about the year and recap. Slide 7, you'll see a significant driver of that incurred performance is $0.18 of the margin line in Q4, reflecting the impacts of our regulatory execution, that's both on base rates and also our tracking mechanisms. Think about that, both the supply PCCAM impact and also our property tax tracker. In addition, you'll see we have $0.11 of the improvement in income taxes versus the prior period, driven by the release of a tax reserve, which is adjusted out and we'll talk about that in more detail in a minute here. And then impacts of the Montana rate review. But notably, I would mention that financial performance overall in Q4 was a bit stronger than we had expected, driven by final clarity in the Montana rate review related to ultimately…

Brian Bird

Management

All right. Crystal. Thank you so much. Here, just on this conclusion page, I just want to say one thing. We felt very, very good about 2023 and all that we accomplished. First and foremost, we have been one of our best safety years as a company. We continue to have higher reliability for our customers, two very good rate reviews in both Montana and South Dakota through settlements again, properly balancing what affordability for our customers and what we need in essence, to continue to be a strong financial company to serve those customers. Very good outcome and getting to a holdco something we've been thinking about and trying to put in place for many years. Now that's effectuated. We took great steps way back in January of 2023 of announcing incremental coal strip to come into service and 1/1/26 for us, obviously, continue to fight through many challenges on Yellowstone County with that plant being online from our perspective to serve customers for our summer peak. Lastly, being able to look at our plant and work really hard to identify means to increase our growth rate, long term earnings growth rate to 4% to 6%. And that's for '23 is a great setup for 2024, we're very excited about that, we need to certainly obviously execute on our plan, we need to stay focused on safety, we obviously need to balance reliability, affordability and sustainability as a company. And we also need to make sure on a going forward basis, we're able to achieve our earnings and growth targets. And with that, I'm going to pass it back to Mr. Meyer.

A - Travis Meyer

Management

[Operator Instructions]. We'll take our first question from Paul Fremont at Ladenburg.

Paul Fremont

Management

Looking at the segment section in your 10-K, I noticed that you don't have sort of the new entities delineated in the 2023 10-K. Are you going to have -- when you file your FERCs in April, are you going to be able to show the Montana utility versus the non-Montana properties separately or is that a '24 event?

Crystal Lail

Management

Our segments will continue to be electric and gas. Obviously, we've separated the two utilities and have that level of detail in the FERC filings indeed. You should be able to see the separation between Montana assets and South Dakota assets and electric and gas. So if you have more specific accounts, we certainly can help you through those, maybe offline, but you should be able to see that breakout. And then indeed, the transition of the separation of assets legally occurred on January 2nd. So you'll see a bit more footnote disclosure in our 10-Q filings starting going forward with Q1.

Paul Fremont

Management

And then with respect to South Dakota, is there an agreed upon level of return on equity for AFUDC calculations?

Crystal Lail

Management

There is, indeed, I don't know that it's public. And so I will just tell you the South Dakota Commission prefers to do black box approach to settlements. I think you'll see this with some of our peers. We're very focused on getting to a revenue number overall that supports an earned return that is in line with where we expect to be and the approach that, that commission may take might look like an overall lower approach to ROE, but a solid approach to giving us the total revenue recovery that we need. Mr. Meyer is giving me an assist over there by holding up a sign that's of the AFUDC rate, which seems a little…

Travis Meyer

Management

Well, 6.4%. So we do have it disclosed in the 10-K in the section on our property, plant and equipment. We have the rate of 6.4% for AFUDC in Montana.

Crystal Lail

Management

That would be based on what we actually recorded in 2023. And the way I would say that is I don't expect to change that in 2024.

Travis Meyer

Management

And it's about the same rate in Montana too that same 6.4%.

Paul Fremont

Management

And then has the EPA gone any further on the proposed emission standards that you had talked about on some of your earlier calls? And where do things stand on that?

Brian Bird

Management

Paul, we're still waiting. I understand there's still -- we talked about this earlier today. I think we're weeks if not months out from hearing from EPA.

Travis Meyer

Management

We will take our next question from a line that ends in 5990. Looks like area code 347.

Sophie Karp

Management

This is Sophie Karp, KeyBanc. Congrats on the strong results and all the regulatory achievements. And maybe I can just ask you a conceptual question here. First, Brian and Crystal, you guys mentioned all of the good things you've accomplished and you're surprised to see the 5% dividend yield and we are too. So I'm curious, what do you think is missing from the story, maybe what do you glean from conversations with investors?

Brian Bird

Management

Well, I certainly understand as we have taken steps. I think we are addressing balance sheet concerns. I think you'll see in '24 a 14-plus FFO with that issue. We have knowledge, we still have a bit high dividend payout ratio. But as we continue to grow earnings at a faster clip, we'll deal with that issue. I certainly believe there's some sort of fire discount in our shares. But I would tell you that we continue, like other utilities, making great efforts not only from an operational perspective but on many fronts looking at that. Beyond that, I think with the outcomes we've just received and execution of our plan, I don't understand why we would be trading where we're trading, and I'll leave it at that, Sophie.

Sophie Karp

Management

And then maybe real quick on the Montana elections that we will be watching at some point. What are your thoughts on the trends that line up and to the extent you can comment on how you see this development?

Brian Bird

Management

I learned a long time ago and did not talk politics. But I will say this, we know we're going to have two new commissioners in Montana. President Brown has acknowledged, he's running for another state office and Commissioner [Donald] terms out, so we know for sure two. Commissioner Fielder is running. And no commentary on any of their opponents or who will be in those races. We have until March 11th, I believe, for people to finalize who's running for these positions. But we know for sure that we're going to have two new commissioners, and that's all I'll say. I will just tell you this, from our perspective, what we need to do to demonstrate whoever's sitting in those chairs, what we're doing is in the best interests of our customers. And obviously, we're doing investments to our shareholders and they have to think about it. And said they have clearly pointed out in this last rate review they understand according to the rules that they need to find that proper balance too. And we certainly appreciate that and we'll continue to work with all interested parties to come to similar outcomes.

Travis Meyer

Management

With that, we'll give it just another minute here, but we don't want to have any other calls in the queue or hands in the queue. All right. With that, I'll hand it back to Brian for some closing thoughts.

Brian Bird

Management

First of all, certainly acknowledging we think from share performance, we should be doing better, but I also want to reach out and thank all of you. We continue to follow the stock and all of you who are certainly invested. We certainly are thinking about your best interest here as well and hopefully that improved your performance will meet your expectations. Thank you very much.

Travis Meyer

Management

Have a great day.