Earnings Labs

Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 7, 2025

$5.47

-0.18%

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Transcript

Michael Judd

Management

Hey, everyone. I'd like to welcome you all to Opendoor's inaugural open house earnings live stream. I'm Michael Judd, Opendoor's Head of Investor Relations. A few housekeeping items before we get started. Details of our results and additional management commentary are available in our earnings release, which can be found at investor.opendoor.com. The following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that could be deemed forward-looking, including, but not limited to, statements regarding Opendoor's financial condition, anticipated financial performance, business strategy and plans, market opportunity and expansion and management objectives for future operations. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. Additional information that could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Opendoor's most recent annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, as updated by our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended June 30, 2025, and September 30, 2025, and other filings with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements made on this webcast, including responses to your questions, are based on management's reasonable current expectations and assumptions as of today, and Opendoor assumes no obligation to update or revise them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. The following discussion contains references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The company believes these non-GAAP financial measures are useful to investors as supplemental operational measurements to evaluate the company's financial performance. For a reconciliation of each of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP metric, please see our website at investor.opendoor.com. With that, let's get into the open house with Kaz and Christy.

Kasra Nejatian

Management

Good afternoon. My name is Kaz Nejatian. I'm a computer nerd turned lawyer turned founder, but I think of myself primarily as a product manager. That's what I spent most of my career doing, building products and leading teams to build better products faster. I'm not the guy you invite your place if you want someone to bring to party. I'm the guy you invite your party if you want someone to fix your Sonos. On my first day at work, I told our team at Opendoor that we're going to make a bunch of changes and that the new Opendoor would look nothing like the old one. And that's because, well, the old Opendoor had kind of lost its way. Before I tell you why I think Opendoor was broken, let me share you one example of the thing that has changed just in the last few weeks, so you can get a sense of the scale of the change. Look, on my first day at work on September 15, Opendoor had entered into contracts to buy 120 homes in the prior 7 days. By last week of October, that number had risen to 230 homes. In 7 weeks, we nearly doubled our speed of acquisition. I think it's reasonable to ask how can we move so fast right now when we used to move so God damn slowly. If you give me a couple of minutes, I'd like to tell you what caused the old Opendoor to be so broken. I think this diagnosis will kind of matter in how we rebuild Opendoor. Having been inside the company for just over a month, it's kind of obvious to me that the old Opendoor had just lost faith in the power of software to make selling, buying and owning…

Christy Schwartz

Management

Thank you, Kaz. Our third quarter results reflect the deliberate choices made earlier in the year to prioritize risk management over volume growth, defined by wide spreads and a risk-averse posture that treated buying homes as something to avoid rather than our core business. The numbers tell the story. In the third quarter, we purchased 1,169 homes, roughly in line with the expectations shared at Q2 earnings, but well below our recent historical acquisition volumes. We delivered revenue of $915 million, above the high end of our guidance as we deliberately cleared old inventory before the slower winter selling season. When you stop buying homes, you don't just lose volume, you lose the ability to manage your inventory mix. We were left selling through older homes that were selected under the old strategy, and that showed up in our margins. GAAP gross profit was $66 million in Q3 compared to $105 million in Q3 of the prior year. GAAP gross margin was 7.2%, down 40 basis points year-over-year. Contribution profit was $20 million and contribution margin was 2.2% compared to contribution profit of $52 million and contribution margin of 3.8% in Q3 2024. On costs, prior leadership did meaningful work to restructure our cost base, and we will continue that effort. Third quarter GAAP operating expenses totaled $134 million. Adjusted operating expenses were $53 million, a 41% improvement from $90 million in the third quarter of 2024. This improvement was driven by disciplined cost management across all components, marketing, operations and fixed operating expense. As we rescale acquisitions, we're doing it from the structurally lower cost base. Net loss for the third quarter was $90 million compared to a loss of $78 million in Q3 '24. The prior year number included a $14 million gain from the Mainstay deconsolidation. Adjusted…

Michael Judd

Operator

Great. Thanks, Christy. Our first question comes to us from video submission from Vlad Tenev.

Vladimir Tenev

Analyst

What's up, Kaz? By the way, we're super pumped that you guys are streaming live to retail on Robinhood. I think the question on everyone's mind is what's going on with tokenization? How real is it? And how do you think it could revolutionize the homeownership experience?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

Thanks, Vlad. Thanks for hosting us. Look, I'm such a big fan of Robinhood, and I hope that we can continue to do things together. Our mission at Opendoor is to tilt the world towards homeowners and those working hard to become homeowners. And I love that Robinhood does some of the same things, this whole thing of taking power away from fancy people and giving to average person. Now to answer your question, look, I have a habit of not announcing products before they're launched. That's because I build products, not spreadsheets. And I think it's important that we ship things before we talk about them. And I don't want to say we're going to do this next week, but I generally can't imagine a future where real estate is not tokenized. And I also can't imagine a future where Opendoor isn't leading innovation in real estate. Look, asset tokenization is not a side quest for us. Tokenization allows us to increase the speed of transactions, decrease the cost of transaction and broaden base of homeownership. That's our job. Today, we talked about how we can now accept USDC. This week, I bought Bitcoin on my own laptop so we can start developing. And we've begun talking with partners about how we can work across stablecoins and tokenization. The work is active. We're very serious about it, and we'll tell you more when we launch something.

Michael Judd

Operator

Great. Our next question comes to us also via video submission from Eric Jackson.

Eric Jackson

Analyst

Eric Jackson, welcome. On behalf of the entire $OPEN Army, we are thrilled to have you here leading the charge. I have two questions. Can you say specifically what the headcount is now at the company? I believe it was 1,407 over the summer. And second, can you say more about the revenue opportunities that you see around iBuying? Do you expect to add mortgage and title and other ancillary services? Zillow experimented with doing this a few years ago by acquiring a legacy company, and that didn't really take. So what is the Kaz approach to revenue? And how do you expect to grow this in the coming quarters? Thank you, again.

Kasra Nejatian

Management

Thanks, Eric. Look, to start with, I think Opendoor has had far too complicated structure for a company of this size. To give you a sense, we've had 11 different HR software products. We're going to go down to one. As of this morning, there were 1,100 people working at Opendoor. And the most important thing isn't the number of people, but how aggressive and efficient those people are. I believe every single Opendoor employee needs to be 2 to 3x more aggressive and more efficient than the average employee in tech. We will have the most aggressive software company in the public market because our mission is incredibly important. And like I said in the prepared remarks, our job is to be incredibly mindful of OpEx and to reduce our fixed OpEx over time so that it becomes a smaller and smaller part of our income statement. On the second question, look, I'm incredibly bullish on what I call services. When I joined Shopify, Shopify was 50-50 in its revenue between SaaS and services. Today, services are 75% of Shopify's revenue. And while I didn't have everything to do with it, I had something to do with it and was the services guy at Shopify. The reason why these embedded fintech things typically don't work is because they're usually designed by some dude in a Boardroom trying to figure out how can I make more money from my users. That's what it typically work. And that's just not how users interact with products. We will build excellent products. They will feel whole, and you will buy a home from Opendoor the same way you buy a car from Tesla or something from Amazon. They will feel like one product, and there won't be a different -- bunch of different cross-sell motions that you have to keep feeling that you're talking to different companies. I hope that answers your question.

Michael Judd

Operator

Great. Our next question comes from Zach H, who asks, when will we see a dramatic change in profitability?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

Next year. The answer is next year, we're going to see a dramatic change in profitability.

Christy Schwartz

Management

Zach, let me walk you through some of the details. So as we shared in the prepared remarks, we are driving the company to adjusted net income profitability exiting 2026 on a 12-month go-forward basis. The framework to achieve that goal requires us to rescale acquisitions. We guided to rescaling acquisitions, growing them by 35% quarter-over-quarter for Q4 2025, and we are driving to exit Q4 2026 by buying somewhere around 6,000 homes. You can track that -- our progress against that goal and hold us accountable to that goal at accountable.opendoor.com, which will be updated weekly. On the margin side, we expect to get contribution margin of 5% to 7% as we approach the acquisitions with renewed rigor, decreasing tail homes, improving days in possession and therefore, holding costs. In addition, as we get more shots on goal and buy more homes, we get the opportunity to attach more products and drive margin from ancillary services. We expect financing costs of 2% to 3% of revenue. These costs are highly sensitive to our turns and will benefit from our faster resale velocity. We're targeting adjusted OpEx of 3% to 4% of revenue. We expect to leverage our existing fixed OpEx structure, as Kaz mentioned, to invest slightly more in marketing, but with the discipline that Kaz discussed earlier, and we expect to scale operations marginally as we rescale volumes. That's a framework. It's not new guidance. But it's -- yes, go ahead.

Kasra Nejatian

Management

I'm going to add a little to this, if you don't mind. Look, I spent the last few years of my career at Shopify, and I think folks would say that I had something, though obviously not everything to do with Shopify's profitability and growth. In late 2022, when I became Shopify's Chief Operating Officer, I'm going to read this because it was a quote. There was an analyst that said, "Shopify will lose money every year through 2025. Profitability is nowhere to be seen." Well, Shopify became profitable 2 quarters after I became COO, and it has been profitable ever since and have hit the Rule of 40 every quarter. Companies don't become profitable in Excel sheets. The way this works pragmatically is what [indiscernible] and I did at Shopify. You create a list of projects, you put odds -- adjusted odds of success against each of them and you execute every single day. At Shopify, we had a few dozen of these, 3 or 4 of them ended up really mattering. And we have the same list here. We have a list of projects. And the reason I say we're going to drive to profitability is because this is not a passive thing. It's not just going to happen to us. We know what we are going to do. We're going to take those actions, and we're going to exit 2026 profitable on a go-forward basis. Sorry, I cut you off.

Michael Judd

Operator

Our next question comes to us from Victoria B. Short sellers keep attacking Opendoor, spreading negativity and driving the stock down despite strong progress. What’'s your strategy as CEO to fight these daily short-selling pressures, protect shareholders, and make sure the market sees Opendoor's true strength?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

Look, I care a great deal about our average shareholder. And you've seen us do some things today to help align us to our average shareholder. Having said that, I don't spend that much of my time thinking about short sellers. I never worked on Wall Street, and I generally don't understand why these people do what they do. It just seems deeply boring and like just bad for the soul. I mostly just pity them. They don't really build anything. Look, we run the company for long-term owners, not for people that bet against us every week. And what matters to us is execution week in, week out, how fast we buy and sell homes, how operationally excellent we are, how we turn over inventory. And I think the best way to deal with short sellers is just prove them wrong through numbers. Every quarter, we're going to improve unit economics. Every quarter, we're going to get better. Every week, we're going to show you the numbers. We're going to do all the right things. And I think when you do that, the score takes care of itself.

Michael Judd

Operator

Great. Our next question comes from Dae Lee from JPMorgan. How do you define Open's identity? What do you see as its biggest strength? And how will you leverage that to achieve sustainable growth and profitability as Open navigates the currently depressed housing market and longer term?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

That's a great question. I'll take it first, if you don't mind. Look, Opendoor is a software company. We're not a hedge fund waiting for macro to turn around. That's our job. Our job is to help people sell, buy and own homes. And our leverage comes from building excellent products. And you do that by writing excellent code. So that's the largest source of our leverage, right? Codes written by our engineers, data on our databases and the models we have and we're improving the value not just the valuation of home, but dispersion on them and days in possession. And I firmly believe that the best software companies are built in hard times because the times forces you to be disciplined, right? You end up having to care about your user more. You end up building deeper integrations that solve more of the problem. So when times get good, you end up having abnormally large profits. I'm very bullish on the company. Just in the last couple of weeks, we've shown that we can grow acquisitions relatively quickly. I think we grew 60% on acquisitions just this past week. We'll see how much we grow next week. And we've shown that we have relatively good levers in this company. And when you decide that you're going to do that, you have the good levers, you have great software and you have the balance sheet that we do, you get the chance to go on offense. And I really like our odds, and I think things are starting to work for us.

Michael Judd

Operator

Great. Our next question comes to us from Ryan Tomasello from KBW. Does management intend to continue to emphasize the Cash offer as Opendoor's primary product? Or do you envision moving the business more capital light? Will the Key Agent program be the primary distribution channel for the cash offer? And if so, how should we think about potential bottlenecks on growth given this high-touch approach tied to agents?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

That's just not how I think of the business, to be honest. Let me answer your question first. Look, I think companies fail when they think of themselves first and their users second. Like our job is to serve our users and people come to us to sell or buy a home. That's why they come to us. And our job is to meet them where they are. Some of them want to use an expert, some of them don't. And the question is, how do we answer? I think Cash is a great product. I think Cash Plus is a great product. We're going to have different products along both the risk and the ownership axis because I think that's just not the final two products we're going to have. And I like our D2C model. I think we talked about how in our tests early on, it has been converting 6x better. So I think the question isn't really one of which channel are you going to pick. We're going to pick the channels that allow us to have the maximum impact on behalf of our users. And I firmly believe in our DTC channels are going to be the future of the company. And if there are users that want to use experts, we want to serve them where they are.

Michael Judd

Operator

Great. We have a few questions on sustainable acquisition growth, so I'll read for you those out. One from Ygal at Citi. How are you expecting to manage guardrails and acquisitions as you pick up pace? Another from Andrew at Citizens. Can you talk about controlling the long tail and how those purchases have outsized losses? And Nick McAndrew at Zelman. How do you balance near-term transaction growth with your stated goal of evolving into a platform business?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

Okay. I'll try to take these one at a time. I think the tail question is actually the best question. Let me take that one first. So what you actually want to have is a lot of dispersion in your model, right? Opendoor historically have not had that, where it has kind of like just had a peanut butter spread across its space. We now have significant dispersion, and this is basically all we talk about is how we can have excellent offer on good homes where we know days in possession is going to be low and be more careful on longer days in possession homes. And we have a new process for inspecting every home to make sure that we don't get caught by surprise. This is a trust but verify approach that I talked about, which will be great because it will both, a, variable cost and b, more importantly, allows us to have lots of data on our servers. Last question second. I don't think these two things are at conflict. Look, at Shopify, we had high growth and high free cash flow. I think these two things actually go together because when you buy lots of homes, you get opportunities to sell lots of homes. And when you sell lots of homes, you get opportunity to attach additional services to them. And I think these two things go hand-in-hand. And to answer your first question last. Look, I think we have shown that we have really good levers at our disposal. Morgan and the growth team have been working only for a couple of weeks now. But every single day, we're seeing improvement on buying the types of home we want to buy, and we really like our top of funnel. We have cut marketing and have seen acquisition go up, which is always a good sign. Am I missing something?

Michael Judd

Operator

That's great. We have another question from Ben Black with DB. There's a few in there, but his last question was, in what ways can AI be an accelerant to growth?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

I mean, look, in all the ways, and basically all the ways. Look, I don't spend that much of my time worrying about like the problems Opendoor has traditionally had on this area because there have been different types of problems. I spend a lot of time about what the problems are today. Let me give you one example. I talked about this a bit. We would have up to 11 people touch a home before we had a sales contract go out for it. Today, in many of our flows, that's down to 1. And the job of that one person is to watch the machine, right? This significantly reduces OpEx per home that we acquire, far, far, far fewer human beings, far more machines. This is better speed, better user experience, lower OpEx, win, win and win. And then secondly, on the -- just the top of funnel part, you've seen us cut marketing and we cut marketing when I came in and increase acquisition. We're able to do this because we can optimize our funnels and put more of the experience in the hand of the user. And by the way, AI is also able to help us explain to our users the valuation of each home. So across top of funnel, middle of funnel, bottom of funnel, already, we are seeing the impact of AI. And we're also seeing the impact on closing, which is the last step, where we've had machines do much of their work for closing these days, and that's just going to continue.

Michael Judd

Operator

Great. We had one more question from Margarita M, who asks, how can you guys make homeownership easier for younger generations?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

I mean this is like the fundamental goal of the company. Look, home prices have increased by something like 50% since 2020. Mortgage rates are much higher than they used to be. Housing inventory is far too low. Typical sale is taking like 60-plus days and like 1 in 7 deals are falling through. And the average time for a person to buy a home is almost 40 now. This is just terrible because it's harming our communities, harming our families and people who want to own are facing real barriers. People feel trapped in their homes because of mortgage rates. This is why we announced our partnership with Roam today. But the enemy really isn't any one group of people or any one company. That's just not how it works. The enemy is the process. There are so many people involved in the process of you buying and selling a home that the costs are just out of hand. And one of the things I'm super excited about is the fact that we can underwrite a home gives us excellent power to underwrite mortgages and the fact that we can do things that allow you to buy a home earlier, buy a better home earlier and know that you have the peace of mind to buy it, is going to be a key part of the company's future. But that's the mission, right, tilt the world towards homeowners and people who are working hard to become homeowners.

Michael Judd

Operator

Great. We're getting close to the top of the hour. So that was our last question. So Kaz, if you have any closing remarks?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

Yes. Let me -- thanks. I appreciate it. Thanks for your question, folks. Look, I spend most of my day in Cursor and GitHub. I don't spend much of my time in spreadsheets. I started writing code on my Commodore 64 when I was 6. And I'm opinionated about what Opendoor's product should look like. We are a product company building software to enable homeownership. And you've seen us launch many products, like dozens of products just in the past few weeks, and you should expect us to do the same. And you should expect us to be operationally excellent and incredibly mindful of your dollars as our shareholders. You're going to see us be accountable. We're going to make mistakes along the way, but at every single step, you're going to see us care deeply about our mission and be transparent as we build. I'm incredibly bullish. I am more bullish today than I was when I took this job. And I think we're going to actually make a change and make a real difference in the future of homeownership in this country.

Michael Judd

Operator

Great. With that, we'll conclude our third quarter open house.