Earnings Labs

Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 19, 2026

$5.35

-2.46%

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Transcript

Michael Judd

Management

That's what we're building Opendoor for. It's why the results we're sharing today matter because every number behind them represents a homeowner who got to focus on what comes next instead of what comes with selling. I'm Michael Judd, Opendoor's Head of Investor Relations. Welcome to Opendoor's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Live stream. Details of our results and additional management commentary are available in our earnings release, which can be found at investor.opendoor.com. The following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that could be deemed forward-looking, including, but not limited to, statements regarding Opendoor's financial condition, anticipated financial performance, business strategy and plans, market opportunity and expansion and management objectives for future operations. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. Additional information that could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Opendoor's most recent annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and other filings with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements made on this webcast, including responses to your questions, are based on management's reasonable current expectations and assumptions as of today, and Opendoor assumes no obligation to update or revise them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. The following discussion contains references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The company believes these non-GAAP financial measures are useful to investors as supplemental operational measurements to evaluate the company's financial performance. For a reconciliation of each of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP metric, please see our website at investor.opendoor.com. With that, let's get into the open house with Kaz and Christy.

Kasra Nejatian

Management

Good afternoon, everyone. Early in my career, I used to write a plan that told my team what we were going to get done during any given cycle. Then at the end of the cycle, I would go through the dock and color every sentence of the plan, green, yellow or red, based on whether we had done what we said we would do and if we were on track to go where we wanted to go. I kind of always found it useful to write things down so you can hold yourself to account. With that in mind, I'd like to remind you of the last financial open house. In my first open house, I told you that we had a 4-step plan to turn Opendoor around with renewed energy. Let's go back in time and listen to what I said. So here's our 4-step plan to channel that energy. First, by the end of next year, we will drive Opendoor to breakeven. We think about this in terms of adjusted net income on a 12-month go-forward basis. That means Opendoor will start generating cash and will never be forced to raise equity ever again. Second, we will drive significant positive unit economics while increasing the velocity at which we transact in homes. This includes launching financial services like mortgage. Third, as we increase our unit economics, we will change the company's focus from primarily building channels to transacting directly with buyers and sellers. We're also going to focus on reducing our days in possession rather than arbitrarily increasing spread, which has had genuine significant negative consequences for us. Fourth, once we've accomplished the first 3 steps, we're going to focus on allowing buyers and sellers to transact on Opendoor without having to buy or sell from Opendoor. This…

Christy Schwartz

Management

Thank you, Kaz. Bottom line, we're executing. Last quarter, we laid out 3 goals: scale acquisitions, improve unit economics and resale velocity and build operating leverage, and we delivered on all 3. We increased acquisitions 46% from the third quarter. Our October 2025 acquisition contract cohort is over 50% sold through or in resale contract. This represents over a 2x improvement in resale velocity compared to October 2024 and a roughly 50% improvement from October 2023. At 50% sold through, this cohort is yielding the highest contribution margins for an October acquisition cohort in company history. And we delivered all of this while reducing fixed operating expenses and holding trailing 12-month variable operations expense flat as a percentage of revenue. Our fourth quarter results reflect the early days of Opendoor 2.0. While we implemented the operational changes Kaz described, it's important to note that 94% of the homes we sold in Q4 were acquired before October. We were clearing the old book while building the new one with higher quality homes. In the fourth quarter, we purchased 1,706 homes, an increase of 46% from Q3. This marked an important inflection point as we shifted from the high spread posture of the first 3 quarters to a more tailored approach. We provided stronger offers for higher-quality homes with greater expected resale velocity and maintained higher spreads for lower-quality homes with elevated risk and slower resale clearance expectations. We delivered revenue of $736 million, representing a 20% quarter-over-quarter decline, meaningfully better than our guidepost of a 35% quarter-over-quarter decline. We sold through more aged inventory than initially forecasted, a direct result of the resale velocity improvements we've made. As anticipated, our margins face near-term pressure as we work through legacy inventory. GAAP gross profit was $57 million in Q4 compared to $66…

Michael Judd

Management

Great. Thanks, Christy. Okay. We've had a handful of questions that center around a common theme. We grab 2 of them. First, Zach H. asks, where is Opendoor at currently compared to expectations and profitability and where would you like to be? And Ryan Tomasello from KBW asks, according to your accountability dashboard, acquisition contract volumes are running at or below the low end of your targets. Aside from seasonal factors, what are the primary macro or pricing drivers preventing a faster ramp?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

Yes. Thanks for the questions. Look, to be blunt, we're right where we need to be. We're on track. If you had told me 3 months ago that we'd be here, I would have told you you're being a little too optimistic. Last quarter, we laid out a 4-step plan, and I think we're green across all 4 steps. We did what we said we would do, and it's working. Our contribution margin bottomed out in September, has improved every single month after that. We're going to exit Q1 with the highest contribution margin we've had since Q2 2024. Look, it's early, but things are going well. And to be clear about it, this isn't the macro helping us. This is us helping ourselves. So -- to answer your question, the reason we said our goal was adjusted net income profitability at the end of this year on a 12-month go-forward basis is because that is what needed to make sure Opendoor starts generating cash and doesn't need to raise equity ever again. That's our goal. But just like Google Map find different routes to get home, we're finding the best route to get home. And actually, let's take a step back before that. Before we become ANI profitable, we're going to become adjusted EBITDA profitable. Now I think adjusted EBITDA is not the best metric for measuring our business, and I'm not about to give you guidance. I think our lawyers have very particular feelings about me saying guidance. But to be transparent about it, the plan I have on this laptop right now has us being adjusted EBITDA profitable on an annual basis starting in Q2, right? So things are going well. Things change and company building is a little messy, but things are going really well. Now…

Michael Judd

Management

Great. Our next question comes to us via video submission from [ Anthony Pompliano ].

Unknown Analyst

Management

Hi Kaz. I hope you and the Opendoor team are doing great. My question today is about artificial intelligence. Obviously, this has become really pronounced in the market. But what are you guys using it for internally? And how should that change the customer experience in the Opendoor product moving forward?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

Thanks, [ Ben ]. I think the best example I can give you for AI use is what's happening at Opendoor in underwriting. Give me some rope. I love football. I think it's a great support. But I hate the fact that in any given football game, there's about 11 minutes of football and 3 hours of not football dressed up as football. And when I got here, Opendoor's Workday was kind of the same, like a lot of not work dressed up as work, a lot of toil that humans should not do anymore. Now look, -- every company says AI. It's like the buzzword of the day. And honestly, a lot of it sounds to me like yes. Look, real estate is basically the last industry that is untouched by technology, where we pretend humans have a better sense of what an asset is worth than a model that's been trained on decades of data. And for a long time at Opendoor, we pretended that was true, too. But machines are better at something than humans. Look, humans do taste. Machines do ETLing data, creating documents. machines do math. Here's my principle. Humans do humans work and machines do machines work, right? And -- but human work is the work that machines cannot competently do yet. So what can't they do yet, for example? The last mile of our work they can't do yet. So the house that backs onto a highway, the machines are bad at valuing the asset. That's where human judgment comes in. Our problem at Opendoor was never that we had humans in the process. The problem we had was that we had humans doing the wrong part of the process. So what have we changed, right? Our analysts are no longer doing valuations today. They're auditing what AI has prepared. They are working on evaluating the output rather than doing paperwork to prepare the input, right? Go back to football, is this one. AI kind of lets us run a no huddle offense faster and more efficient, but the [ QB ] still calls the place. So I think you asked what should investors expect? I think initially, what customers should expect first because that's actually more important. Customers should expect a fair and fast offer with fewer errors. Investors should expect declining operational expense as a portion of our revenue like we talked about and a company that doesn't move as slow as the San Francisco part. So -- and there's also a separate thing. I think there's a key thing folks don't appreciate about AI. AI constitutionally destroys some businesses and improves others, right? If you're a point solution selling SaaS, I feel sorry for you. But if you deal with a real world where the primary problems are pricing and operational complexity and variance, AI is basically like manna from heaven. It's the thing we need to make the business work.

Michael Judd

Management

Great. Our next question comes to us via video submission from [ Catherine Ann ].

Unknown Analyst

Management

I'm [ Catherine Morgans ] from Portland, Oregon. I became a shareholder in Opendoor in 2021. I was inspired to invest in the company following my experience using Opendoor to sell my home. It was the most streamlined and painless home selling experience that I've ever had. And I cannot imagine should I ever need to sell a home again in the future using any other option. I've been following the progress of Opendoor mainly via the Datadoor Discord. And it's been very thrilling over the past 6 months to see all of the innovation, especially with the improved implementation of AI to enhance operations and sharpen modeling. So as far as I'm concerned, things are looking very good on the, let's call it, the software front. My question has to do with, let's call it, the human front or the customer front. And that is, how do we get to the point where sellers think, I'm going to try Opendoor first before even considering going via a realtor. How do we turn that corner where Opendoor becomes the default first option that people try when they're ready to sell their home?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

Yes. That's a great question. Defaults are like incredibly powerful and usually, folks talk about defaults the way they talk about brands. You use a [ Kleenex ], I then my friends. I put a Band-Aid on my kids legs basically every night. I want you to Opendoor your home. But brand is just another like word for reputation and reputations are earned backwards, not forwards, right? You can't spend your way into having a great brand. Otherwise, all of you, all of you would be watching me right now on [ Quibi ]. Look, selling your home is one of the most important financial decisions for average American families. Selling a home is -- it's an act of trust, right? And historically, folks have placed that trust in people, not software. Opendoor exists to build software worthy of that trust. And to become trusted, you need to have lots of people use your product, lots of people be delighted by your product, right? So my favorite example of this is like Jeff Bezos and Sam Walton, right? The best marketing is a product that delights you. Jeff Bezos didn't spend money on advertising. He spent money on making the product there fast. Same with Sam Walton. So for us, if we want to be the first place people go to, we need to kind of earn that same level of trust. And that for us starts with the offer. The offer is a product. It needs to be accurate, fair, reliable. It needs to feel great. And if I'm being honest, we're not the default yet, but we're on the right track. Like I know we're on the right track. Let me tell you why. In markets that we've been operating for a while in our mature markets, 20% of folks who go on to list their home before they call a person, they try opendoor.com. That's the beginning of looking like a default, right? As we expand more markets, we'll get there. But so how do you -- like how do you become a default? That was your question, I think. I realize I've been talking for a really long time. So in order to become a default, you have to do a few things. First, you have to be available. At the end of last quarter, Opendoor wasn't available everywhere. So we expanded all over the Lower 48. We're available to almost everyone right now. Second, you have to remove every point of friction, right? Opendoor needs to make a fair offer, a good offer, a real offer fast. Trying Opendoor needs to be a delightful experience for our sellers. And last, you need to consistently deliver value. You need to be a fast transaction, better pricing, great services, including an amazing mortgage product. And our new unit economics help us do that, right? Better unit economics means better offers, better offers build a trust. Defaults follow trust and trust follows great products.

Michael Judd

Management

Great. Our next question comes to us from [indiscernible]. With the stock down significantly since your tenure began, how should investors assess progress? What key metrics best reflect operational improvement? What is the strategy to restore market confidence?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

I mean, look, I just like ask your question a bit personally first. I am very highly motivated to see Opendoor's stock price go up, right? My family is the most levered family in the world on Opendoor stock. My salary is $1 and unless stock levels see levels they haven't seen in years, I don't get paid. So I don't want you to take what I'm about to say the wrong way, but I just want you to -- let me say this. I don't manage the stock price. I manage the business and look at what we're building. Now my responsibility is to create shareholder value. That's literally my job to create value for our shareholders whom I deeply appreciate. But I fulfill that. I fulfill my responsibility by not looking at the stock price every day. I fulfill it by building something people want and value. The stock price will follow. It literally always does. My favorite book, one of my favorite books is a book called the score takes care of itself. I have it on my desk. It's in our library at Opendoor. It was written by Bill Walsh. Look, Bill Walsh didn't win Super Bowls by telling his team to focus on the scoreboard. This is a football-themed earnings call. His whole philosophy was simple, like execute the right way, take care of everything, the score takes care of itself. And I'm pretty sure he won more than 82 games. The stock is not the company, right? Jeff Bezos didn't become a worst CEO when Amazon stock dropped 90%. I bet you. I bet you, he didn't even flinch. He kept building. And the stock eventually reflected the business, not the other way around. Now I've been here for 4 months. In that time, we've demonstrated clear evidence that the model we are building is working and the business is structurally improving, right? But how should you judge our progress? I think that was the question. I don't think you should do it by where the stock is today, but you should think about whether the underlying business is getting structurally better. I've given you how I would grade us, but I genuinely honestly think you should find a way to do that, too. You should build your own model on us. But I want to be transparent about this. My job is to build a company that can host a product that people want. My job is to improve the economics of that business. And everyone here, everyone who works at Opendoor is focused on executing. The score will take care of itself.

Michael Judd

Management

Great. Thank you. Next, Victoria B asks, if home prices drop another 5% to 10% nationally, what happens to your margins and inventory risk? How prepared is Opendoor for that scenario?

Christy Schwartz

Management

Thank you for the question, Victoria. It is the right question to ask. Opendoor 2.0 is built to move homes, not hold them. The longer you hold when the market turns, the more it hurts. So the whole game is turn faster. And here's what's genuinely different now. We have more tools than we've ever had. Previously, the primary lever was spread, price conservatively enough to absorb a market move, and that works, but it's blunt and it has terrible adverse selection. We now have a broader toolkit. First, selection. Under Opendoor 2.0, we are a more tailored approach. We offer strong prices on high-quality homes where we expect faster resale velocity, and we maintain wider spreads on homes with more risk or slower clearance expectations. Second, velocity. We reduced homes on market greater than 120 days from 51% to 33% in a single quarter. Our October cohort is clearing at 2x the velocity of October 2024. A home we own for 45 days has fundamentally different risk exposure than one we own for 180 days. And as we grow volume, the goal isn't to hold more homes, it's to move more homes. Scale and velocity compound together. Third, cash plus. This is an underappreciated as a risk management tool. When a seller opts in, they're retaining more of the price risk, and we earn fees with less capital at risk. That structurally shifts our exposure. Are we immune from a 5% to 10% decline? No, nobody is. But the question isn't whether it hurts, it's whether Opendoor is structurally positioned to navigate and withstand it. The October cohort is a great example of this. Over the past 5 months, national home prices came down roughly 300 basis points. During that exact period, our contribution margins on that cohort held steady or slightly improved. That's not hope or an expectation that happened.

Michael Judd

Management

Great. Our next question comes to us from Andrew Boone from Citizens, who's wondering, there's some testing of a mortgage product with Lennar. Where is Opendoor in extending the services opportunity? What should our expectation for 2026 be for Opendoor to be able to attach more adjacent products to transactions?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

I feel like I'm now on a football thing, so I need to find a football analogy. I just don't have one. Okay. Look, like I said, we started building our mortgage product in January, and we're going to launch it in beta this week. I showed it to Christy last night. I'm very, very bullish on this product. I think it's going to be good. It's going to take us a second to get all the right things because that's how products work. But I'm very bullish, and we're going to have more news on this soon. I think there was a part of the question that was about unit economics. Let me hand wave because I think the unit economics of the mortgage space are like relatively well understood. We're going to do some special things about them, but let us tell you about them when we do those things. So I think the primary unknown question is this. what will be our attach for mortgage and adjacent products, right? How many people who buy or sell a home from Opendoor take a mortgage from us? I have a hypothesis, but not a good answer. I've done this a couple of times, but we're going to underpromise and overdeliver here. But separately, I think there's very likely that there is a world where we have partners, especially our homebuilder partners that use some of the software we're building. We're building a new stack with the help of some partners, and it will be more finely tuned to people who own assets they're selling than a typical mortgage stack. I still don't have a football analogy.

Michael Judd

Management

We can come back. Our next question comes to us from Dae Lee from JPMorgan asking, what has stood out to you so far about the quality and profitability of the homes you're buying since ramping up acquisitions? Any surprises as you pick up the pace and have those led to any changes in your approach? And looking ahead, what are the key factors or milestones you're watching most closely to gauge progress toward your current profitability and margin targets?

Christy Schwartz

Management

Thank you for the question, Dae. As you may have noticed, the October 2025 acquisition cohort is something we've been paying a lot of attention to. And that is because that's the first cohort where we had the offers, the contracts, the acquisitions and now 50% of the resales are under the Opendoor 2.0 model. So it is a very important source of data for us. The performance of this cohort isn't just one thing. It's everything working together for the first time. So I talked earlier about selection and spread dispersion, but we are targeting higher quality, higher velocity homes so that we can turn them faster and get better selection. When you have better selection coming through the door, that really improves our operations. Those are homes that we can get relisted faster and have less variance in outcomes. And then it comes to the resale systems and our ethos. We, as an organization, fundamentally believe that it's better to identify a margin-optimized clearing price than to wait around for the perfect offer to come along. And so our machine learning pricing model, it has meaningfully improved the precision of pricing decisions, better demand signals, better timing and better calibration at the individual home level rather than blanketed spread reduction or price reductions. The result, resale velocity in our October cohort was 2x what it was in October 2024 and with margins that exceeded our expectations. And so that puts to rest the idea that speed and margin are a trade-off. We've shown the answer to both can be yes in a market that, frankly, no one would characterize as particularly strong. To answer your question about surprises, I think what surprised us was how quickly some of the changes we put in place showed up in our…

Michael Judd

Management

Great. Our next question also comes to us from video submission and will be answered by Brad Bonney, Opendoor's Chief Business Officer.

Brad Bonney

Management

Opendoor. My name is [indiscernible]. I'm here with my daughter, Eva, and we're in Ohama from Hawaii that relocated to Tennessee. We purchased with Opendoor a few months ago because of the convenience. We tried the traditional way many times, and we stumbled upon Opendoor. It allowed us just unlimited access to the property we're looking at. Speed of response, and it's just the easiest way to work with. We didn't need any rotor. We didn't need our attorney to help us. It was just us and Opendoor. And we're promoting Opendoor a lot to our whole [ Ohama ] because this is new to us. This is a new way of buying and selling or relocating. And because of that, that's what got us to also invest into the company because we saw something brand new, something convenient and something totally different that goes against the traditional way of buying and selling. My question to cause is, as you know, I'm a veteran. A lot of military people have to move. We come on orders really quick. And I see this being a great platform for a lot of military people, veterans, active duty. What is Opendoor doing? -- to help our community. I really appreciate the time [indiscernible] Talk to you guys later.

Unknown Executive

Management

Thank you Brad. Thank you for your question, and thank you for your service. As a fellow veteran, you spent more than 7 years in the Navy serving primarily out of nuclear submarine. I know what it means to raise your hand and say, I will go where you need me, when you need me for as long as you need me. That commitment makes the American dream possible for all of us, and it shouldn't come at the cost of the dream itself. Nearly 400,000 service members PCS every year. That's almost 0.5 million families navigating a home sale on a time line they don't control. The traditional real estate process wasn't built for that reality. Opendoor was. Fast offers, close dates you control and certainty in an otherwise uncertain transition. Here's how we're helping. We've already launched the Heroes Home Credit. This is a $4,000 credit towards closing costs for active duty service members and veterans buying an Opendoor home. That's not just some marketing gimmick, that's Opendoor recognizing that military families already absorb significant out-of-pocket expenses every time they move. They shouldn't have to sacrifice when buying their next home too. We're building from there. We're working hard to make sure VA loans work seamlessly with Opendoor because that's how many military families buy. These are some early steps, but we really need to continue to build trust with the military community. Trust doesn't happen with ads. It happens through word of mouth. One soldier tells another how easy it is to sell their home. On sailer tells her shipmate how they seamlessly moved their family across the country. And each time, it's Opendoor who made it happen. That means the most important thing we can do is exactly what we've always said, build a product that actually works for the people who need it most and deliver on every promise we make. Every military family we help becomes an advocate and every advocate helps spread the word. Coupa, your question today is exactly what this looks like. Thank you, and thank you again for your service to our country.

Michael Judd

Management

Great. Thanks, Brad. I think we have time for one more. And Zach H is wondering, where do you expect to see Opendoor in 2 years?

Kasra Nejatian

Management

That's a great question. It's actually my favorite question. Before I answer that question, I want to say something. One of the things that makes me deeply proud of working at Opendoor is the number of veterans that work at Opendoor. We deeply recognize that freedom isn't free. So thank you, genuinely thank you. So where will it be 2 years from now? And what do I expect? Well, 2 years from now, I expect to be sitting in front of you telling you that we delivered exactly what we said we would do. 2 years from now, I want Opendoor to be the default that we talked about. I don't want to have to choose anymore between margin and volume. 2 years from now, we're going to get both. Two years from now, the AI infrastructure we're building right now is going to have a compounding effect across our cohorts. We're no longer going to be talking about the model. We're going to be talking about scaling it and how we can serve as many people as we can. And we're going to be okay with the people who doubt us now, taking credit for our work 2 years from now. But the most important question for me generally is where homeownership is going to be 2 years from now. Will a teacher living in Kansas City be able to afford a home on her salary so that her kids can grow up in a home owned by their mom and dad. Today, the answer to that question is no. 2 years from now, I hope can stand in front of you and say the answer to that question is yes because then our work will have mattered. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks for putting up with us. We'll see you in 3 months. Cheers.