DonavonTernes
Analyst · Tim O'Brien from Sandler and O'Neill. Please go ahead
There are a couple of things for us specifically. First of all, I'll just point you to the March 31 10-Q, where we described a net interest income shock associated with a various -- or various rate shocks, instantaneous rate shocks of plus or minus 100, 200, 300 basis points. Let's focus on the minus 100 basis point shock at March 31. We forecast that the subsequent 4 quarters or the subsequent year after an instantaneous shock of minus 100 basis points would reduce our net interest income by approximately 5.86%.At June 30, we will also be publishing those numbers. And I'm not going to disclose them today per se because they'll be in our Form 10-K, but we were able to cut our exposure with respect to that negative 5.86% by about 38%, 39%, 40% in our modeling. So we believe we are in a better position at June 30 with respect to a potential downward move in interest rates than we were at March 31. However, we are still asset-sensitive, but less so than we were at March 31.And ultimately, as we go through the time line, because we described this as a minus 100 basis point shock on an instantaneous basis, we would obviously not expect a decline in net interest income by that amount because those declines will not occur instantaneously.There's one other complicating factor in our balance sheet with respect to this. So if you look at our balance sheet at June 30, you'll notice that we had 0 loans held for sale. And previously, we had loans held for sale. Those loans held for sale were essentially repricing into cash, if you will, within 30 to 45 days. Well, with 0 balance at June 30, we automatically extend the duration of our assets and take some of that interest-rate risk off the table in a downward scenario because of that.Secondarily, our cash position at June 30 is a little bit higher than we would like to see, generally speaking. And because that cash is earning effectively Fed funds rate, we have the ability to redeploy that cash into a portfolio of loan or loans which would yield a higher rate, and that actually creates a positive movement to our net interest margin to the extent we're redeploying that cash out of cash in the loans.So for our balance sheet, it's a little bit complicated because of the transition out of loans held for sale having a little bit more cash than we would like to see and being able to redeploy it. So if we're growing total assets subsequent to redeploying that cash, the belly of the curve, which is typically where we're getting our loans from, are at very low rates and we're funding on the short side. So like every other institution, that's essentially a decompression to net interest margin as growth occurs, but we have a little bit of time before that will occur in our balance sheet.