Robert Michael Falzon - Prudential Financial, Inc.
Management
So, Erik, let me take a stab at that and then Steve may want to jump in as well. So, if you – you should think about the updates that we've made during the course of the second quarter, on an after-tax AOI basis, it aggregates, call it around $420 million. It had three principal components to it. As John mentioned in his opening remarks, the first two relate to refinements in modeling and changes in accounting methods for the mortality on the Hartford block and for reinsurance on all of our GUL and VUL. Together, those two components account for about 75% of the charge. The result is a change in a pattern of future earnings, which will result in a level of lower – a level of earnings in the near-term, low level of earnings in the near-term that will be offset by a higher level of earnings further out. What I would emphasize is that there is no statutory impact, no capital impact, or no cash impact from this. Neither reflects a change in our view of the underlying economics, either. So, and then generally, those updates, as I described to my answer to Seth, were really enabled by the system enhancements, which allowed much more refined modeling. And also important to note, with respect to the Hartford component of this, recall that a year ago we adopted this PFL, profits followed by losses accounting, and that tends to very much magnify small changes. So, you have relatively small changes on a large block, then magnified by PFL accounting, resulting in some of the larger change that you've seen. The remaining piece of the $420 million after-tax, so, is about 25%. It does reflect a change in actuarial assumptions, primarily lapse rates. This is a change in underlying economics, and it affected both GAAP and stat. The statutory impact was offset by other positive things that happened in stat during the course of the quarter. So, to directly answer your question, on a combined basis, if you take all of this and you look at both the updates and the refinements and how it manifested itself in the period run rate of AOI for Life, it's about $40 million lower than what we've seen in previous quarters, on a pre-tax basis. Now, that's largely offset by the run rates that we've seen in our other businesses, the increases there. But we would suggest that that's the appropriate way to think about the earnings run rate for the business going forward and we think, as a result of these changes, those earnings now bear a much closer relationship to the economics that underlie that business as well.