Earnings Labs

Prudential plc (PUK)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 13, 2019

$30.52

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Transcript

Mike Wells

Management

Well, good morning and thank you for joining us today for our results presentation. Got a lot to go through with you this morning in I think a good level of detail and hopefully you’ve had a chance to review the early comments. I'm going to assume you've all read and studied the disclosures and move right to the highlights. So, again, resilient results on all of our key metrics in what was an interesting year, I think, from a market volatility, interest rate, political point of view in most of our markets and we're obviously very pleased with the strength and the depth of the performance of the various business units. New business profits, again up 11%, Asia, up 14, the health and protection helping that materially. Group IFRS, up 6. Looking through those numbers a little bit, Asia, up 14, the USP income, up 8. And if you strip out some of the one-timers in the M&G Pru business, you see it up 5. So again, I think a very strong performance, given the climate we were in. Free surplus generation at 4 billion, up14. Again, Asia free surplus generation up 14. Dividend per share, up 5, again consistent with our policy and our solvency ratio at 232%. So, I’m going to spend a few minutes on some of the non-financial metrics for the year. So if you consider the normal practice of selling profitable product in the channels, what you expect us to do, let me give you a little color on the amount of work that was done to further expand our capabilities, further extend our distribution, product, technical reach around and I'm going to focus on this slide in particular on the international business. But to just give you a general feel for the magnitude…

Mark FitzPatrick

Management

Good afternoon, everybody and thank you for coming and I extend my welcome that Mike started off with. I'm very pleased with the group's financial performance in 2018. It reflects our strategic focus on driving growth, while at the same time, making good progress on the preparations for our planned demerger. During the year, our businesses faced up to a number of external headwinds with market volatility and general global uncertainty ever present throughout the period. Yet, in this environment, we still delivered growth across our major earnings and cash metrics and improved the capital position of the group. You can see that here in the key measures with new business profit up 11%, IFRS operating profit, up 6%, 11% growth in embedded value and solvency 2 cover increasing by 30 percentage points to 232%. Now, this is not a chance outcome, but the direct consequence of our disciplined approach, which is reflected both in the quality of the business we have written over a number of years and the way we manage it, while it is on our books. It also demonstrates the strength of our platform and the market positions, enabling the group to grow even when the external environment is less favorable and to accelerate when the conditions are right. So what this means is that Prudential’s financial performance benefits from resilience throughout the cycle and is able to maintain the attractive combination of both growth and quality and I'll bring that to life now, as we go through the next slides. Before I run through each of the businesses in turn, I will cover some high level observations at a group level and then conclude with a more detailed outlook at the overall group metrics. I've used this slide before to demonstrate that the long term…

Mike Wells

Operator

Before we do the Q&A, if you don't mind, I asked Michael Falcon who has joined us at the beginning of the year as the CEO of the US just to give you a few of his initial observations and then we'll bring the whole team up for Q&A.

Michael Falcon

Analyst

Thanks Mike. Good afternoon. Now, my name is Michael Falcon, I'm the new guy. I've spent the better part of the last 20 years of my life in the savings, investment and retirement space, mostly in the US and the last four plus years in Asia. I couldn't be more proud or pleased to be here today and part of a great team at Pru and a fantastic team back in the US at Jackson, some of the team is here today as well, meeting what I see as a really great goal, not just financial, but social goal in terms of helping people retire successfully and live a life post work with dignity. And I think guaranteed income is a big part of that. And as you've heard over the years before, that's really at the core of what Jackson does. So as Mike said, he asked me to share a few early thoughts and observations. And I'll do that this morning. I started 10 weeks ago. And since that time, I’ve spent a lot of time learning about our business. Most of that meeting and working with my leadership team, the management team at Jackson, employees, I’ve been through the sales conference, I've been through an internal board cycle through our subsidiary boards as well as through group board cycle, all of the various control investment and asset liability committee meetings, I've had time to spend with the teams in each of the operational centers, listening to client calls, watching how businesses process, time with our technology group, looking at projects and prospects there and even time on our internal sales desk, listening to interactions with and advisors. Over the past few weeks, I've done a little more external facing work and that will continue over the next…

Mike Wells

Operator

Thank you, Michael. I’ll ask my colleagues to come on up here and we’ll do some Q&A if we’re good. 12:43.

Q - Oliver Steel

Analyst

Oliver Steel of Deutsche Bank, so three questions. The first is just historically, you've described 5% dividend increase as the worst case assumption. So I'm just wondering in the light of double digit growth elsewhere in your business, why you've chosen then to increase the dividend by 5%. Secondly, can you talk a little bit more about the extra balance that you want in the US business, how far you want to go, what sort of products you need to introduce, how you're going to achieve that? And then thirdly, you talked about the PruFund profits being back end loaded. Can you give us some sort of idea, I don't know, on a five year view, let's say, based on the current business, what sort of latent profit you've got there?

Mike Wells

Operator

Okay. So I'm not sure I’ve described the dividend as worst case. I think the language was earn it, stress it and pay it specifically and I think the key of a sustainable dividend is just that. There's plenty of case studies on dividend distribution getting ahead of actual core earnings and that's not always seen in this firm. So we've got a lot going on this year, Oliver. I think you see the cash, the resilience of the center. It was just viewed as cautious, getting the structural changes and the fact we're not done with the final look at what the two entities will be, but it's certainly not a -- it's not a reflection on our confidence and the growth in earnings. It's just simply a period where the board thought we'd be cautious and think it's a good dividend increase and obviously one that we can comfortably pay. Extra US balance, I don't think we want to get too much and we have a variety of options there. But I don't think we want to -- I think let’s give Michael a little time to settle in before we get into some of the specifics, you are seeing an increase in the indexed annuity product sales in the US, you'll see that in the league tables and Jackson's looking at a variety of product initiatives. I think for competitive reasons, anything else we're doing we'd want to keep it confidential at this point. And then, Mark, the statement on PruFund profits looking forward, I'll let you.

Mark FitzPatrick

Management

So in terms of PruFund profit, I think we're going to be wonderfully consistent in our messaging in terms of not disclosing anything in terms of some of that latency at this stage, but I appreciate the attempt on it.

Jon Hocking

Analyst

Good afternoon. Jon Hocking from Morgan Stanley. I got three questions please. First on Jackson, the guidance you've given today and I think this is the same guidance that you gave in Singapore about there being a sort of 40 to 50 point hit in 2020 for the VA changes. I just wondered whether there's some offset here because you had the additional hedging that you've had to put in place to cover the inadequacy of the current regime, to cover the rate cap positions over and above the economic hedging, is that 40 to 50 basis points net of this, what you expect to save on hedging or is that potentially on top, I just don't think about what the direction of the statutory cash flow is because you seem to have -- you potentially got four years on the banks where you've got exceptional items clouding the statutory cash flow. This is the first question. And then second question again on Jackson. Some of the movements we saw in the S&P in the fourth quarter, we had some incredible zigzag markets sort of down 5%, up 5%. I just wondered if you could comment in terms of how you handled the over hedging, handled it and was that within the range of what was foreseen. And then just finally on Asia and the Greater Bay initiative you mentioned, I can see the opportunity, but also presumably there is a threat here as well. You've got a dominant position in Hong Kong, but not in the mainland. What's the risk of mainland companies encroaching on the Hong Kong core business?

Mike Wells

Operator

So Chad, if you don't mind, I'm going to put you and Steve to work on the first two questions. And then Nic on the Greater Bay initiative. Is that okay? The US team, get a microphone if we could.

Chad Myers

Analyst

Okay. So I guess, both questions kind of come together. So let me just start with the second one and then we can roll right back around. So in terms of Q4, the volatility that was there, that's exactly the kind of scenario we're built for, it's primarily an option based program and it's resilient for gappy markets, it's not a purely futures based dynamic hedging model like a lot of the competitors do. So those gappy markets actually help us. When we got to the point, we talked about in Singapore and we talked about a couple times about how the more difficult scenarios for us, two that we've seen in the last several years. One was that 2017, 2018 where reserves are floored out, we were having to spend more on hedging than we would otherwise be inclined to do to protect statutory balance sheet and also what we saw back in first quarter of ‘16 or first half of ’16, when the market was down fairly significantly, but we also had rates go to an all time low, which also is difficult on statutory basis. In both those cases, we were having to do additional hedging above and beyond what our normal economic based, cash flow based hedging program would do. So what you saw on Q4 was as reserve started to build, then we saw a very nice balance between hedge gain loss and reserve build. So -- and we saw, because we had that kind of latent capital position coming into a good capital formation in Q4. And obviously the markets reversed back up since then, we've seen those reserves release as Mark mentioned against hedging losses we would have taken. But all in all, still well balanced and very happy with the outcome. As…

Mike Wells

Operator

Okay. And Jon, just one last comment, I think you do – it is an interesting question of what the market will see as AA level RBC, as you are talking about a more -- less volatile regime, but that's again outside of our control. That'll be market. Nic, on Greater Bay Area initiative, competitors coming over.

Nic Nicandrou

Analyst

Okay. Well, the threat needs to be contextualized vis-à-vis the reasons why people come across from Mainland China to buy in Hong Kong. There's a number of reasons why they do that. The first one is diversification of assets, if you like, it gives mainland customers access to overseas types returns. The second reason is exposure to hot currencies in that it allows them to effectively invest in products that are US dollar denominated or linked to the US dollar. Also, there's more comprehensive cover that the combined -- many of the critical illness and medical products not leased to cover them for early stage diseases and multi-stage type illnesses, better hospital access and actually access to Western brands, which are not as readily available in mainland China. So, all these -- that's why people buy in Hong Kong. Yes. Ultimately in time, the close may be the other way, particularly where I say a Hong Kong resident wants to buy the renminbi denominated product, but those products are already available in the market. So my assessment, our assessment is that the opportunity is much, much greater than the threat. Just to build on what Mike covered earlier, we saw a 15% increase in the number of visitors from Mainland China in Hong Kong from 44 million to 51 million. In fact, we saw a record level of visitors in the fourth quarter of 2018, aided by the increased connectivity that's coming through the new road and the rail services. It's no coincidence that behind the 18% increase in our Hong Kong sales in the fourth quarter, allies a 42% increase in the mainland China sales. So you see those effects coming through as traffic or visitors increases.

Ashik Musaddi

Analyst

Ashik Musaddi from JP Morgan. Just a few questions. First of all on cash remittances, it looks like your move to around 100% payout at the moment on a cash remittance, net of holding company, I think it's largely driven by lower US dividend. But how do you think about this number going forward? And especially how do you plan to fund things like the payments you will make to EOB, 600 million? Would you be using the debt that you have recently raised or that has to be paid down as a restructuring or and you'll go down on cash balance. Any thoughts on that would be great. Secondly, in terms of US RBC, I mean Mark, you also mentioned that US RBC is still doing all right, but any thoughts on what -- how things have moved in first quarter this year like year-to-date. I mean, how your equities hedges have performed, how interest rates have performed, because it kind of feels like equities up is negative, interest rate down slightly is negative as well. So shouldn't it be moving down more back to 400% RBC or do you still believe it's around 450 at the moment and how -- what does it impact like the dividend from US? And lastly is on the UK capital. I mean, UK capital has moved up nicely because of this longevity release, which will most likely happen for next two years as well. But you still aim to maintain say 1.170%. So are you looking to extract more dividend out of UK because of that.

Mark FitzPatrick

Management

So in terms of the cash remittance effectively, the philosophy and the approaches we bring up, what we need to the center and Canada in terms of where we are at the moment, given the fact that we raised 1.6 billion of Sterling, and we have a cash stock at the end of the year to over 3.2 billion, bringing up extra for the US just didn't seem to make a whole lot of sense. There's also capital efficiency with actually having some of the extra capital in the US, because of some of the inadmissible DTA that we can bring in to that components. So there is a financial play in terms of doing that piece. But in essence, we bring up what it is we need, when it is we need it on that particular piece.

Mike Wells

Operator

On the UK capital, I guess Mark as well, I think, or John, it doesn't, I mean.

Michael Falcon

Analyst

That is probably more a question for Mark.

Mike Wells

Operator

So in terms of the UK capital, in terms of where we're at, so we're very pleased with the performance of that business, how it's done with the element of capital creation. We're going to continue to keep a close eye on it. We're expecting the guys to continue to work hard over the course of this year, continue to keep a close eye on it in terms of up to the stage of de-merger. We have set out the element of that we would – we’re aiming for 170, we’ll look to see what happens closer to the time in terms of what that ultimate ratio is going to be and what the ultimate capital position is going to be. The key thing to bear in mind is that it's in our interest as a PLC board to ensure that M&G Prudential and PLC are well capitalized, well regarded and set up for success. So we will make sure that we do those things for both those companies, as part of the demerger.

Mike Wells

Operator

And then Ashik, on the US RBC, so we don't give off cycle as we've discussed, it's December 31 shares, it’s a point in time metric, that's a hard mark and Jackson did well in it. Directionally, capital is improving. I think Mark referenced at this comment. So, if you are running that calculation, that would actually be better, but we're not going to disclose monthly.

Andrew Crean

Analyst

It’s Andrew Crean at Autonomous. Just one question. There's an awful lot of talk about growth in the presentation, yet, the stock trades on 0.8 times embedded value, which is kind of rating that [indiscernible]. So there was a gap, a major gap in perception here. I wonder whether you could talk a little bit about what you perceive that gap because it's been around for some time to be about and what concrete proposals you have to close it.

Mike Wells

Operator

Andrew, I think it's our job as a management team to manage the earnings, the quality of the growth. I don't think that the share price has some market factors to it that are outside of our control. So, I think you're seeing the messaging, the deployment of capital, the performance, that consistency, all those things that are management's control, but I think commenting on the share price is really a market issue.

Greig Paterson

Analyst

I’m surprise you only have two questions this time. Just in terms of the, it surprised me that you increased the debt by a net 1.2 billion and then I read quickly the released today that post demerger, that would increase a little bit more. Has there been a decision to increase the structural level of leverage within the group and we've seen this manifest or some of that money going to be earmarked to redeem some debt and go back to the old level, it’s question one. The second one, and excuse my memory, I saw something about Babylon raising money and whatever just top rated, I had some negative thoughts about why were they raising money when Pru has just injected some money and et cetera, et cetera. So I wondered if you could just update on how, I know it's only two or three months since you did before, but how's the Babylon rollout going, is everything hunky dory or is there any issues there?

Mike Wells

Operator

So Mark, do you want to comment on structural debt? And then Nic, do you want to comment on the Babylon rollout, stay away from Babylon’s equity story that was just for the record. It’s outside of our jurisdiction as well.

Mark FitzPatrick

Management

So in terms of the debt, the idea is to make sure that we have some flexibility as we go through the changes in the movements in the debt stack ahead of the demerger, so making sure that we've got the right debt in the right place and then we've got flexibility in terms of the tools that we use to move the right debt in the right place. And then over time, I’d expect to see the debt numbers coming back down. But over the course of the build up to and immediately post, that may will be which is what we've highlighted in terms of the MTN as well, the fact that it might lift up a little bit.

Nic Nicandrou

Analyst

Okay. On Babylon, the plans to launch this service in our first market, which is Malaysia, pretty well advanced. We, as Mike said, the first phase was to get Babylon to help us localize the app, both in terms of language, so it's now exists in Bahasa, and also in terms of local illnesses. So that's done, we've engaged with the health ministry to get approval as a health information service. So we've gone through that particular step and of course, it's been very, very heavily tested by 3000 or so staff that we have in Malaysia. The launch is scheduled for April. It will include some of the basic features that we showcased in terms of the diagnosis, the system checker, the digital twin, we've added a number of additional services such as aims, detection service and also an online doctor consultation, which will be available for free for our own customers, but at a charge for non customers, and also medicine dispensation will be part of that as well. Later in the year, we will add wellness rewards, chronic disease management, and hospital admission. So as I said, it's well advanced in Malaysia. We've also started in Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand. But just to manage expectations, our emphasis at the first 12 to 18 months will be on ramping up the user numbers, establishing service partners and connecting to existing and new partners’ platforms. We will be tracking the number of downloads that we're achieving, how many of those are then converting to monthly active users and then in time, how many of those will convert into revenue generating users. We’re also developing our digital marketing tools and looking to put in place a very smooth model to move from kind of online to offline, handoffs to telemarketing and agency. So all that is in -- is pretty much progressing as we expected. And we'll be able to give you more updates later on the year.

Nick Holmes

Analyst

Nick Holmes at SocGen. Couple of questions, just on Jackson's hedging program. Just to come back to that, wondered if you could give us more color about how you handle the basis risk. And because I mean, looking at the disclosures, you seem to be hedging with index options mainly. And I'm just interested to hear how you structure the policyholder asset liability management because I think policyholders have pretty broad asset allocation choices. So how do the options reflect that? And then second question is, looking at the cost of options, I think Chad, you said the zigzag markets actually favor options. But I didn't quite understand that, because don't options rising cost when markets are volatile. So I wondered if you could also just explain, give us more color on that. Thank you very much.

Mike Wells

Operator

So, Chad, you want to do basis risk and cost of options across the cycle?

Chad Myers

Analyst

Sure. I think on the basis risk, Steve covered some of that in Singapore too, so there's some refreshing there too on the slides. But just broadly speaking, when we put funds on our platform, we underwrite them to certain characteristics and so while there might be good funds out there that generate good alpha that don't really track well, those are the types of funds we don't put on our platform, ones that have more stable investment offerings over time that have relatively consistent betas that are easier for us to track on a basis risk type of basis. Those are the types of funds we have there. So what we find is couple of things, the funds that we -- because we do underwrite them, they are very stable through time, we don't see a lot of short term basis risk coming through. We, and over the long run, we really wouldn't expect to see much anyways, because most equity type of markets and most equity type of investments are going to tend to correlate over time. The one exception to that would be the more of the international emerging markets, things like that. We do have hedges that we specifically have and a lot of that's more currency than it is actual direction of equity markets, although last 12, 18 months has been fairly dispersed across global equity markets, but we do have hedges on [indiscernible] in addition to the S&P that have mitigated most of the basis risks that we've seen in the underlying separate accounts. With respect to -- also, what we don't see from our online policyholders is a lot of movement. So they tend to stick with, make allocations and stick with them. We don't get a lot of in and out activity…

Mike Wells

Operator

One quick comment on the first point, we also have something coming from the asset management side, have been very impressed with this. It's a very large separate account portfolio with a wide diversity of funds. There's diversification and bounce in that portfolio itself. And there's great visibility, like instant visibility. So there isn't a lot of change in allocations that end consumers make. But even where they do that, it's instantaneously visible to the team, so they can see exactly what's there. And there's a level of risk mitigation, just in the size and diversification of those holdings. They're not all equity funds, they're not all -- certainly not all emerging market equity funds. And Nick, if you're managing money in the platform, they're seeing your net actual holdings real -- effectively real time, so they're hedging the actual underlying stocks in positions in the sub, accounts not necessarily trying to just track the fund. So it's the best –

Mark FitzPatrick

Management

It’s at the balance sheet level, it's not at the contract, the hedges aren't at the contract level, which would be extremely expensive and problematic for that reason.

Johnny Vo

Analyst

Hi. It’s Johnny Vo from Goldman Sachs. Just three questions. I mean, I guess in China, as we get closer to liberalization of the market, I mean, how do you see the relative merits of your joint venture versus a wholly owned subsidiary of one of your competitors? First question. Second question just in regards to PruFund, I mean, it's been doing extremely well. I'm not sure whether it's sold on third party platforms. And if it isn't, are you planning to do because that could obviously give a boost in terms of sales volumes. And third question just regards to all the movement on the holding company, the debt and various other things. I guess, Mike, when would you be in a position to give us more information on the synergies of these holding companies that are de-merging and the benefits that you'll see from the demerger to the market.

Mike Wells

Operator

Nic, do you want to do China first?

Nic Nicandrou

Analyst

Yeah. I mean, look, it’s -- we've been quite open about our desire now that the market is liberalized to own more than 50% of the business. If we are able to do that, then that will give us an instant pick up, if you like in the -- in our numbers, but as Mike said, that's dependent on a couple of factors, which are not entirely within our control. But I think the market is wrong to underestimate the potential of simply growing this business and the operational leverage within that and let me just give you some more color around that if I may. When we look -- we put up a slide in Singapore that’s showing where our flows and the new business value comes from amongst the now 19 provinces that we have. When you go beyond -- beneath or rather beyond that, you see that in a couple of places in Guangzhou and in Beijing, we have penetration of between 1% and 2% in terms of gross written premiums, and everywhere else, we're well below the 1% level. Overall, we're about 72 basis points of market share. Simply adding 10 basis points of market share a year would increase over that five year period, the new business contribution. If you then overlay the project at 10% to 12.5% increase in – growth in gross written premiums, that becomes 3.5 times the MVP. So the operational leverage is huge. And I think these numbers are conservative when you bear in mind that over the last five years, our MVP increased five times. So really the challenge is to grow that footprint, which is where we've been investing time. We've added – we’re now operational in our 19th branch, we're preparing for our 20th branch. We upped…

Mike Wells

Operator

John, on PruFund and third-party platform?

John Foley

Analyst

We don't sell it on third party platforms, but what we are looking to work, how we are looking to grow PruFund is through Europe. So we are busy diligence or others are diligence us in terms of the product to sell through our partners in Europe, bank channel partners in Europe. So that's where we're heading with that product. Clearly, we've got to maintain the integrity of the performance of that product. That's what drives the sales. So that's how we choose to do it.

Mike Wells

Operator

And Johnny on the synergies, So I think the -- for M&G Prudential, before we announced the demerger, we announced the merger of the two entities and they said cost targets and part of that was improving service and capability and you're absolutely seeing that now. And part of that was cost reduction, which is, as we mentioned, is on track. We are adding the capabilities to be a standalone firm. The governance, the sovereign functions, et cetera, that's embedded in that model. So that's an added challenge for them. On the international side, when you're doing this level of work, it creates a sort of inflection point to look at why you do things, I mean our user management team, you could come up with a reason to do that by yourself without any sort of external catalyst but this absolutely is a catalyst, so there is a soup to nuts look at every process we have, every role we have, how can we get closer to the client, do things faster, all that and that has some clear cost savings in it. But we'd like to announce those as we get to them, not project them. But we do see a leaner, closer to the consumer model when this is all done. And I think you need to be, just stay relevant to the consumers and the accounts we have, that's how it should be.

Abid Hussain

Analyst

This is Abid Hussain from Credit Suisse. Three questions if I can. Firstly, if I can just come back to the debt leverage, I just wanted to get a sense of what the real leverage capacity for Pru PLC post the demerger is? I think if my math is correct, I think you end up with a IFRS debt leverage of around 20% to 24% for the international business. So I've allocated about 3.5 billion to the UK. And I'm just wondering if that's the right sort of level or would you look to increase the leverage from that level going forward? And the second question also on debt, but regarding Jackson, I just wanted to understand how much of your existing external debt comes towards the RBC ratio and if there's any room to inject more debt locally into the US and what the constraints are around that? And then just finally, around the demerger timeline, I think I heard you say that you have a court date for the past seven transfer for the end of June, assuming you got approval at that point, what else is left and how long would it take, is there a risk that the demerger might spill into next year?

Mike Wells

Operator

Mark, you want to do debt? Chad, you want to do Jackson, RBC? And then I'll do timing.

Mark FitzPatrick

Management

Okay. So in terms of debt, the kind of ballpark that you're talking about in terms of your numbers I think are fair. Clearly, we will be looking at future opportunities in terms of where we are with our debt levels, in terms of the cost of debt, there's still quite a lot we need to do with debt overall in terms of the restructuring of the debt, in terms, in anticipation of the demerger. So we need to get the debt in the right buckets with the right features with the right characteristics. And from PLC going forward, we will be keeping a close eye in terms of overall debt levels, we will be keeping a close eye on just ongoing opportunities we have in the market and then how best to be able to fund this.

Chad Myers

Analyst

So the only external debt that we have at Jackson outside of the spread lending business is surplus note. Let's do later this or do later next decade, it does count for capital purposes and therefore for RBC, there is more capacity to do that within Jackson's. Then I think pass that is more of a question at PLC where the most effective place to raise debt. [Technical Difficulty]

Mike Wells

Operator

On the demerger timing, so we haven't said it would be this calendar year. We – clearly, we got to go off a full set of -- an audited set of financials. So that's one of the criteria, so half year or full year, you need the debt piece Mark was mentioning, we need to finalize what the balance sheet of both these entities look like, the governance in place for the standalone firm, which is its board, the regulatory approvals in both jurisdictions that includes reconvening regulatory college on the international side. And then I think the task we've been given by the PLC board is to make sure that the quality, the execution is fit for purpose for two standalone footsie companies of this scale, so it's as much a quality lens and make sure everything's ready to go. But the, as you saw from one of the earlier slides, a tremendous amount of work has been done to date and we think we have the teams in place and we think we're making very good progress for it, but we will keep you posted as we knock back some of these requirements. But think of one of the dynamics being that the financials date and we want to go off audited financials, we don't intend to do a counter -- an off cycle set of books.

Blair Stewart

Analyst

This is Blair Stewart from Bank of America. First question is, you gave an indication of the Asian surplus against local minimums. I just wonder how much of an indication that is to true surplus hope, where would you be happy bringing that down to, how fungible is that as well, but I guess more importantly, have you had any -- anything to share with us with your conversations with the Hong Kong regulators to how the PLC capital position would be regarded? It’s the first question. Secondly, for Nic, two smaller questions. Indonesia, we've not really seen any impact of the initiatives yet. Is there anything that you're seeing that you can share with us that may be good, bad or indifferent and is there -- is the Greater Bay Area initiative, is that a signal do you think of a more relaxed view from the Chinese regulator on mainland Chinese business after some tightening they did a year or so ago? And finally, actually, that's it.

Mike Wells

Operator

Okay, appreciate that. Let me take the last one first. And then James, if you wouldn't mind, I'm going to have you just give him a little bit and then Nic, you can do Indonesia. So I'm heading to China next Wednesday night for the China Development Forum. And one of the specific questions will be with the various political leadership is their view, including the Chairman, the regulator, what's their view of a cross border, it's come up before. I mean, it's never been, you do not hear the same, I've never heard the same concern in Beijing or in a meeting with senior Chinese regulators that I've heard in a meeting like this about Chinese with the concern is, is on penetration rates and levels and quality of product and the strength of balance sheet and asset liability. That's the dialog and I've been a minimum of four to six times a year since I've taken this role. So there's been plenty of opportunity, if they had a concern about cross border to raise that, and I've never had that come up. So -- but I tend to bring it up -- the Greater Bay initiative, I think has got a lot of dynamics to it. The first key to it is to make sure, for us to make sure we're servicing those clients up to their expectation and candidly up to their regulator government's expectation. So that's one of the things we wanted to find is what do they see with that insurance connect, what do we need to build to be ready for it. I assume, we're assuming Stock Connect is the model, just given the names, but, that's the type of thing to validate in one on one meetings and in various sessions with the leadership of the country, so we got a shot to do that in the next couple of weeks. James, on the discussion with HKIA?

James Turner

Analyst

Okay. So thanks, Blair. In terms of HKIA, we are, as Mark said, actively participating in the HKIA industry engagement on the development of the group wide supervisory function and so that includes the future capital models, because as you said, in a number of the countries, the local status actually inviting constraint, not the solvency 2 numbers. And that said, we're also continuing to engage with IIS and also on the development of and ICS, but the discussions with HKIA on the principles of the group supervision and capital have progressed well. We've been working really closely with them for some time now and whilst it's too early to give you indicative numbers, we will update you once the HKIA’s proposals have been published for consultation.

Mike Wells

Operator

And Nic, on Indonesia.

Nic Nicandrou

Analyst

Yeah, there's a lot of – I don't really want to give a forward-looking statement on Indonesia, there's a lot of work that we're doing to address what I referenced back in November as the strategic dimension of the business as well as the operational dimension. On the strategic dimension, if we can segment the market into kind of four buckets, there is the agency linked where we have a leading position. That part of the market continues to be subdued. It's a big part of the market. It's around 25%, but it's not moving. The product that we launched in September is introduced, many customer friendly features and of course, it's only available through our electronic platforms. In a country such as Indonesia, with over 250,000 agents, it takes time to effectively train everyone to use those electronic platforms and to also learn about the product. That was taking place through the fourth quarter. We’re seeing good take up of the product, we’re seeing high case sizes, but it's -- there's more to do and there'll be a high net worth, mass affluent of high net worth version of that coming later in the year. So that's our response to that. The second part of the market is the agency traditional, that's about 11 points in the market, 11% market. Historically, we haven't done anything in that space. We launched our first simplified endowment product in January, targeting effectively the rookies and the core agents. We’re seeing good momentum in that, about 77% of the sales of that product are coming from rookies and core agents. We are iterating that product, we are finding, we’re trying to simplify it further and we will be introducing further simplifications such as underwriting with five questions later this quarter. So, again sales…

Mike Wells

Operator

Thanks, Nic. And then one additional comment in China, the cross border, we have had Hong Kong validate and look at, from a regulatory point of, view we're complying with their rules on cross border and that's a normal part of their governance in their previous forum and their current form. So we have had those reviews just to be clear.

Mike Wells

Operator

Well again, thank you very much for your time and attention and we look forward to seeing you at the half year.