Thank you for holding, and welcome to Rockwell Automation's Quarterly Conference Call. I need to remind everyone that today's conference call is being recorded. Later in the call, we will open up the lines for questions. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Aijana Zellner, Head of Investor Relations and Market Strategy. Ms. Zellner, please go ahead.

Thank you, Julianne. Good morning and thank you for joining us for Rockwell Automation's first quarter fiscal 2023 earnings release conference call. With me today is Blake Moret, our Chairman and CEO; and Nick Gangestad, our CFO. Our results were released earlier this morning, and the press release and charts have been posted to our website. Both the press release and charts include and our call today will reference non-GAAP measures. Both the press release and charts include reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures. A webcast of this call will be available on our website for replay for the next 30 days. For your convenience, a transcript of our prepared remarks will also be available on our website at the conclusion of today's call. Before we get started, I need to remind you that our comments will include statements related to the expected future results of our company, and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our projections due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and details in all our SEC filings. So with that, I'll hand it over to Blake.

Thanks, Aijana, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Let's turn to our first quarter results on Slide 3. I'm pleased with our team's exceptional focus and execution as we delivered another quarter of strong growth and profitability. Organic sales and earnings were both up year-over-year and better than we expected this quarter. Rockwell's continued investments in resiliency and agility, along with a gradually improving supply chain environment, helped more than offset many of the headwinds we faced heading into Q1. Orders and backlog were up sequentially in the quarter. Order cancellation rates were flat to prior quarter and remain in the low single digits through January. We are encouraged by the continued strength of our end user demand across all business segments and regions. Total sales grew almost 7% versus prior year. Organic sales were up 10% year-over-year, better than our expectations despite a very dynamic supply chain environment. Currency translation reduced sales by 4% and acquisitions contributed about a point of growth this quarter. Consistent with our prior assumptions, the split of sales by business segment, region and industry was impacted by access to specific electronic components and the composition of our backlog. In the Intelligent Devices business segment, organic sales increased about 7% versus prior year with growth in all regions and product lines. We had another quarter of remarkable order growth in our independent cart technology business, driven by large multi-year deals across many industries including EV, material handling and semiconductor. I'll cover some of these strategic wins in a few minutes. Software and Control organic sales grew almost 16% versus prior year. Better than expected growth was driven by our team's ability to quickly redesign and requalify certain Logix products to secure additional components supply with the support from key suppliers. We…

Thank you, Blake, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on Slide 8, first quarter key financial information. First quarter reported sales were up 6.7% over last year, Q1 organic sales were up 9.9% and acquisitions contributed 80 basis points to total growth. Currency translation decreased sales by 4 points. About 7 points of our organic growth came from price. Segment operating margin expanded to 20.2% and was significantly higher than our expectations. The majority of our margin improvement versus our expectations was driven by the higher revenue from the redesign activity and improved electronic component availability that Blake discussed earlier. The 110 basis point year-over-year increase in margin was driven by positive price cost and higher sales volume, partially offset by higher investment spend. Corporate and other expense was $27 million, in line with our expectations. Adjusted EPS of $2.46 was ahead of our expectations and grew 15% versus prior year. I'll cover a year-over-year adjusted EPS bridge on the later slide. The adjusted effective tax rate for the first quarter was 17.1%. This was in line with our expectations and aligned with our full year estimate of an 18% adjusted effective tax rate. Free cash flow of $42 million was $91 million higher compared to last year, driven by higher pre-tax income. As in recent quarters, working capital continued to grow sequentially. We expect one more quarter of working capital increases this year. We expect working capital balances to decline slightly in the second half of the year as our supply chain gradually improves. One additional item not shown on the slide, we repurchased approximately 600,000 shares in the quarter at a cost of $156 million. On December 31st, $1.1 billion remained available under our repurchase authorization. Slide 9 provides the sales and margin performance overview of our three…

Thanks Nick. In this dynamic environment, we are positioning ourselves and our customers for a more resilient, agile and sustainable future. Automation has never been more important in solving our customers' biggest challenges. A large percentage of these global investments are being made in the U.S., where we have the strongest market share, the best channel and decades-long relationships. Shoring is real for many of our most important verticals, and we see these investments, along with the early benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act, reflected in our continued, strong order rates. We are accelerating the pace of our innovation, including new product introductions across all key product platforms and our recent acquisitions. These were showcased at our very successful automation fair in Chicago, where we welcomed over 18,000 customers, partners and employees to an amazing demonstration of the value provided by Rockwell and our friends. I was also able to meet our new CUBIC team in Denmark a few weeks ago, and I am excited about the new opportunities to expand our sustainability portfolio with an increased presence in renewables, CUBIC's largest customer segment. Importantly, I'm happy with how our culture is both embraced and enriched by our recent additions. And I'm excited to see how we deliver strong growth and new customer value together in the years to come. Aijana will now begin the Q&A Session.

Thanks, Blake. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Julienne, let's take our first question.

Certainly. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Scott Davis from Melius Research. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Hey good morning Blake, and Nick and Aijana.

Hey Scott.

Good morning.

You guys mentioned a couple of times electronics availability as being still a gating factor. Maybe a little bit more color on that in context kind of how that compares perhaps even just the last quarter and prior quarters and also maybe just some context around the product categories or the geographies where it's particularly still acute?

Sure. Thanks, Scott. So we characterize the general landscape as generally improving. And I think that's still the case. We use a lot of chips across our product lines. And I think most notable for the quarter's results was our ability to mitigate the specific issue that we were concerned about affecting software and control when we talked last. We were able to move quick we had good relationships with the involved supplier that helped us mitigate that risk. But in general, we're seeing chips improve across a broad landscape, but it's not going to happen overnight. And so we continue to work with those suppliers to improve the remaining constrained chips and some of those are in software and control, some of them are in intelligent devices. And then, of course, because Lifecycle Services uses products from both of those business segments, there's some secondary effects there as well. But the view is optimistic, but all it takes is one chip and a product to keep from being able to ship it. And so it's not all clear yet.

Blake, is that impacting kind of customer order patterns still? I mean is there still so much fear that lead times are too long that folks are potentially holding on to a little extra inventory here and there? Or is that not an issue because they were never able to hold on to inventory because they couldn't get any product to begin with?

Yes, it's going to be uneven by different product lines. So, we do have product lines in our portfolio that have pretty much returned to pre-shortage, pre-pandemic levels in terms of lead times. The majority of our product offering is still at elevated lead times. We still see OEMs placing big orders for more months of coverage for their machine needs than they would like to, than they will when we return to more normal lead times there. So it's still a factor, but it's improving, and we expect it to improve through the year.

Okay, congrats and best of luck this year, guys. Thank you.

Yes, thank you.

Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Hey, good morning everyone.

Hey Andy.

Good morning, Andy.

Blake, as you started calendar 2023, have you noticed any change in customer conversations around their CapEx plans in any of your end markets that concerns you? And then you talk about how you're thinking about your backlog moving forward? Obviously, it continues to be unusually high. Given the current demand environment, does it seem likely at this point that you end FY2023 with still relatively high backlog that sets you up for a pretty strong 2024?

Yes, let me start with that one first, Andy. We're going to have far higher backlog at the end of fiscal 2023 than traditional levels. That's clear. We saw sequential growth in backlog from Q4 to Q1. And with the demand that we're seeing, then we expect backlog to continue to be high as we head into fiscal year 2024. Now in terms of customers' CapEx behavior, the industries that we've highlighted as needing to make, let's say, once in a generation changes in their capacity, that's continuing. And we do track announced CapEx investments across the verticals that are important to us, and we continue to see high levels of investment in EV and battery. Semiconductor isn't on quite the same ramp up of quarter-over-quarter growth of new announcements but it's at a very high level even as that moderates. And as we've talked about, we're seeing increasing share of wallet in those fabs. So that's good news. Food and beverage, we talked about some of the areas, particularly of new value that they are investing in, probably a split of both CapEx and OpEx when they are looking at cybersecurity and some of the information solutions that we're adding. And energy continues to be a positive area where we expect for the full year, oil and gas is going to be double-digit growth for us.

Very helpful, Blake. And then Nick, maybe I could just ask you for more color on how you are thinking about price versus cost. You mentioned the 7% price in Q1. I think last quarter; you said price cost would be 100 basis points positive tailwind for the year. Has that expanded at on, how are you thinking about the stickiness of your pricing as supply chain-related headwinds begin to subside?

Yes, the guidance I gave last – three months ago that we expect about 100 basis points of margin expansion through price cost, that holds. It's more or less almost exactly what we said then. The way we see it progressing through the year, we see the majority of, in fact, the vast majority of that year-over-year change improvement happening in the first half of the year. We expected and we continue to expect approximately or a little under 200 basis points of margin expansion in the first half of the year, year-over-year on price cost and that moving down to about 50 basis points of expansion from price cost in the second half of the year. That's not a deterioration as it goes on, that's more a statement of the comps we're going against in fiscal year 2022. Going beyond that, in terms of price cost, now we're getting into 2024, and I'm just not ready to be giving any guidance on how we're seeing price cost beyond that.

Appreciate it Nick.

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Hey thank you. Good morning everybody.

Good morning, Jeff.

Hey, good morning. Just a couple for me. First, just on supply chain and kind of the whole redesign dynamic, Blake. Does this actually create some permanent cost advantage, or actually is the redesign work kind of a negative makeshift thing that needs to kind of be corrected further down the road when the supply chain improves more?

Yes, this is going to make us stronger for the future. The additional redundancy, the qualification of additional components, the work to design basically new bills and material with less constrained components with better suppliers to ensure that that flow is more resilient, long term, that's going to be a net benefit to our overall supply chain. There is some overhead in terms of additional cost that's being directed towards those resiliency efforts, and that will wane over time. But currently, that does contribute to some of the additional costs that we're seeing. But we're already seeing the benefits. And I think mid and long term, that will also continue to be a real strength as we, like all our customers, are looking to increase their resiliency.

And then maybe just another kind of a two-parter for me. First on IRA, I was a little surprised to hear you say you're seeing some benefits there. I know like in wind and some other areas things are kind of gummed up waiting on rule promulgation. So I wonder if you could comment on what you're actually seeing there. And then secondly, on semi, I think, your historical strength has been on the material handling side of the house. And I would think independent cart is a better version of material handling in many respects. But could you maybe size in percentage terms or however you could frame it, how your potential share of wallet is changing in semi with your newer offerings?

Sure. So Jeff, you asked about the IRA and what specifically are we seeing there. A couple of thoughts come to mind with that. One, we've showcased the work that we're doing with First Solar, including some of their greenfields, which they've stated were helped along by IRA funding for renewable energy. And so we're proud of the relationship we've had for many years with First Solar. We're doing the controls and now the digital twins in their facilities. They would not have introduced as many greenfield projects without IRA funding. And so that's an example where it helped them, which helps us because they are a good partner. The second is some of the provisions in the IRA on U.S. manufacturing. When an automobile manufacturer builds a plant in the U.S., there is a higher probability that we're going to get large content because of our strong position here. And so that's also what's helping us as well. And again, it's the increased investment in the U.S. by the brand owners. But then when it comes to the U.S., for the reasons I talked about earlier and that you're well aware of we have an unmatched position. So for the second part of your question, semiconductor and what are we doing there? For a long time, our core strength has been in areas of facilities management and control systems. So that's controlling the temperature, the humidity, the cleanliness of the clean room environment. We've done that for a long time in Asia. And as more fabs are being built in the U.S., again, we're extending that capability and share of wallet here. It's also in clean room process tools. And with some of the tooling suppliers, we've enjoyed a good relationship for a very long time. And that's a combination of hardware as well as our project management and engineer-to-order expertise. More recently, cybersecurity has been a factor and has added millions of dollars of new business as we're helping harden these facilities to make them more resilient against cyber-attacks. And the wafer transport that we've talked about a couple of times, that independent cart technology that we talk a lot about in EV and other industries, is really valuable here as well. And we're starting to win big, multimillion dollar projects in several of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. And then the final one that I mentioned was a silicon carbide becomes a scale technology. We're starting to use it in our own products. We're seeing some logic-based automation there, and that's exciting because they are using a standard architecture rather than a lot of the custom PC-based control systems that have characterized that industry for a long time. So hopefully, that gets at the heart of those questions, Jeff.

It does, thank you.

Yes.

Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead your line is open.

Hi, good morning guys.

Hi, Josh.

Hi, Josh.

Blake, just trying to balance out here some of what you're seeing out there versus what we're seeing in the macro, I guess the Fed is trying to create some more employment flag deliberately, and you would think that productivity and automation are sort of a foil for that, but it doesn't really seem to be showing up in orders. And I know some of the markets you mentioned in the prepared remarks where things like food and beverage and life science and EV, and maybe there's just not as much demand variability there. But how do you see kind of this cyclical versus secular balance? And are customers making these investments kind of with the expectation that demand will slow down and these are imperatives anyway?

Yes, I think, there is a blend of things going on. First of all, there is the investment in new technologies that all of the players in the industry, like EV, have a real fear of missing out on. We’ve got the idea that they're going to take a pause based on the macroeconomic concerns and let their competitors build out their fleets and be far ahead of them in terms of their ability to turn out hundreds of thousands of vehicles a year, they just can't wait. And so they are having to power through a still dynamic economic environment. And of course, that's EV and battery. I would say it's also semiconductor as well, where they have to build this capacity. In general, we're seeing across a broader spectrum of verticals the idea that automation is going to help them be more resilient and is going to enable greater productivity from their workforce. So it's not so much about the direct substitution of automation for labor, it's making that labor more productive. And I think that's a general trend that we're seeing across other of our verticals, food and beverage, pharma, and so on. So we're seeing that. We're not tone-deaf to the concerns about the economy. And in terms of our own operations, when I talk about taking a conservative approach, we're watching that. We're prudently adding resources as needed to fuel new growth, but we're very aware of the macro. It's just not going to have as much of an effect on us in the current fiscal year because of a huge backlog that we have, and we're building backlog that's going to go well into 2024 and beyond.

Got you. That's helpful. And then just a follow-up on maybe putting some of these announcements we see out there in context. I think the White House put out something fairly recently, talking about across different verticals like ones you mentioned, some $350 billion [ph] or $400 billion [ph] worth of projects over the next several years. What's sort of the automation exposure within that for some of these bigger announcements? Is it 2% of the spend? 10% of the spend? Just trying to maybe kind of dimensionalize that versus kind of the bigger numbers that we see?

Yes. Josh, I wish I could construct an equation that would give you the percentages by vertical and give us our guide for us. But unfortunately, there's a huge amount of variability between the different industries. And of course, between greenfield, brownfield and so on, a lot of the brownfield-type investments are going to carry with it a higher percentage. So some of those are dedicated to the things that we offer in terms of automation and information management and the related services. The percentage spend for a new fab or a major new EV complex, it's going to be a small percentage of the total. And our job is to maximize the wins in our traditional value, but work really hard as we're doing in areas like semi and EV to add share of wallet, like we're doing with independent cart really in both of those as we're doing in software on the EV side and so on. So I hope that while that percentage of the total CapEx remains fairly low, it's high value, it's profitable and it's growing each year.

Very helpful as always. Thank you.

Yes. Thanks Josh.

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning. I just wanted to circle back to the margins, as that was the main area of surprise, I guess in the quarter. So I think Nick, you talked about a 20% segment margin in the first half and sort of 22% in the second half. Is it life cycle services that's seeing that biggest kind of half-on-half ramp? And then also, any help you could give us on thinking about the Software & Control operating leverage? I think that averaged about 70% in the last three quarters, so exceptionally high performance. How should we think about that on a sort of run rate ahead?

Yes. Julian thanks for the question there. In terms of moving from roughly 20% margin in the first half of the year to 22% margin in the second half of the year, yes, lifecycle services is one of the bigger contributors to that step up as we see lifecycle services going up through the year. But we're expecting margin expansion in all of our segments year-over-year in fiscal year 2023. And lifecycle services just a little bit over the total average for margin expansion that we're expecting. So that's how we're seeing it. In terms of Software & Control, like Julian, just one of the things I just want to point out, as you look at some of the leverage that we're getting, if you're looking at the base, that was including what I was calling out a year ago of some of our incremental expenses related to Plex. So as an example, in our a little over 600 basis points of margin expansion year-over-year in the first quarter in Software & Control, there's about 200 basis points of that, that came from the year-over-year change in what we're experiencing in Plex as we're largely driven by some of those onetime expenses that we had in 2022. In terms of the overall leverage and conversion that we expect in Software & Control, we don't really give it down to that – at a segment level like that. We – you've often hear me talk about our 30% to 35% core conversion. That's more inclusive of everything. But as we grow Software & Control, we continue to expect that that's going to create margin enhancement. That's one of the things that we expect that will enhance our margin. It is also a business that is attracting more of our incremental growth investments as well as we put more investment in that. So Julian, that's just part of the balance. I'd like you to keep in mind on that.

That's very helpful. Thanks Nick. And then maybe one just for Blake, on the sort of process industry vertical. So I think you talked about mid-single-digit growth there in the first quarter, and you'll pick up steam as the year goes on. Is that just a function of kind of sort of faster backlog recognition in Process Industries as the year goes on? Is there any sort of particular vertical within process that you think will drive that pickup over the balance of the year versus what you saw in the first quarter?

Yes. Julian, oil and gas is where we expect a particularly strong ramp from mid-single digit to double-digit. We also see a little bit of that in related chemical industries, particularly the fine chemical applications that are really our sweet spot. Orders continued strong for oil and gas and other verticals in process. They continue, as I mentioned before to see some supply chain shortages that put a little bit of pressure on the shipments in the quarter. But we're comfortable and confident with the continued orders and with the really strong backlog that we'll see the double-digit growth for the full year.

Great. Thank you.

I should mention – I should just mention, since we're talking about process if you were at Automation Fair, you saw the new high availability Process IO. So it's not just the traditional value that we're providing, but the strength of some of our recent acquisitions and new product introduction. And as we release over the coming months that high availability IO, that's a major step change in our capabilities in our PlantPAx system. So that's something that had been a gap for a period of time, and we're very happy with the way that the IO has turned out and the endorsement by process customers.

That's a good remainder. Thanks Blake.

Yes.

Our next question comes from Steve Tusa from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning.

Hi Steve.

Good morning, Steve.

Congrats on the execution on the quarter.

Thank you.

Just on the orders, maybe just a little bit more color. I mean it looks like the lifecycle services orders were up sequentially. You said that total orders were up sequentially. I mean any kind of frame of rough magnitude? I mean should we assume kind of modest sequential growth? Maybe just give us color on total book-to-bill. Was it in around that kind of 1.1 type of area? Maybe just a little bit more high-level color on where the orders landed?

Yes, the orders were strong. We continue to give the book-to-bill specifically for lifecycle services, which was at 1.21. And overall, for the company, as we talked about orders and backlog being sequentially up, meaning, obviously, orders were in excess of the shipments for the quarter, it's across the segments and it's across the regions as we see that continued demand. And we will see continued high backlog levels even with the strong shipments and the increased guide, we'll see very strong backlog at the end of 2023 as we go into 2024.

Okay. Like up low-singles for total order, something in that range?

Yes. We haven't talked about it other than to say it’s healthy sequential orders because we think the sequential information and the cancellation rates, which we also talked about being flat and remaining in low-single-digits, we think those are the most important factors going forward.

Right. And the price embedded in those orders, I mean, to get from up – I think you said 7% this quarter to up 4% in the year, it looks like that prices obviously decelerating. I mean the comps on price get tougher. Is the price in the orders somewhat similar to the price you're booking in revenues today? And are you pretty much booked when it comes to future price increases at this stage?

Yes, Steve, as far as the pricing, what the pricing that we're going to experience for the balance of fiscal year 2023 is all or virtually all of it already baked into our backlog based on the orders that we have and the pricing we put in that. And that will be showing sequential price improvement from what we're seeing right now, just based on how that backlog is playing out. In terms of the guide I'm giving for the full year that is not representing an aspect of price starting to come down from the pricing level we're seeing in the first half. It's just a recognition of – we had virtually no price growth in the first half of fiscal year 2022, and then we had more significant price growth in the second half of fiscal year 2022. So that change from the – it's all based on comp, not on any kind of deceleration there.

And if I could just add to that, yes, we did have an additional price increase in December, so in this fiscal year. And apart from the announcements of specific price increases, we've talked over the last year of being more agile in terms of getting the recognition of the prices by changing our methodology with customers and with the channel. And I would just say that's proceeding smoothly and with our expectations in terms of being able to be more agile as future price increases are introduced.

Sorry, one more quick one, because you guys mentioned it at the Investor Day, any feedback from the channel on how – on the behavior around this January cancellation policy change?

Yes. As we talked about the new cancellation policy on orders, that's more of a hygiene type of issue. We didn't expect it to affect order patterns, and that's exactly our experience is that it did not have a significant impact on order patterns. But we got it in, and I think it's a healthy part of our processes.

Yes. All right. Thanks guys. Appreciate it.

Yes. Thanks Steve.

Our next question comes from Brendan Luecke from Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good morning all. Thanks for taking my question.

Hey Brendan.

So question, as you look through this current cycle for CapEx, how are you thinking about recurring revenues on the back of your expanded installed base?

Yes. So we've had a big focus on adding ARR. We've talked much more formally about it here in the last couple of years. And while it's still a relatively small part of our total business, I like starting each year with that recurring revenue. It gives you a reason for being constantly intimate with our customers and the whole land and expand motion is well understood to be a good source of ongoing value. We like our position in terms of having that, growing double-digits, and being able to complement it with the physical goods that we're shipping that are still being sold on a perpetual basis, a one-time PO. But over time, we expect to add additional software and services to our annual recurring revenue streams as well as hardware where that makes sense. One of the phenomenon is as we're in our second year of double-digit growth, because our overall business is growing so fast, the ARR as a percentage of the total is not increasing a huge amount, but it is more than keeping pace. And so we're happy with it. We're retooling our internal business processes to be able to take orders with a mix of hardware, software and services to make it easier and easier for customers and channel to be able to restack and expand the content in those subscriptions and so on. So we're happy with the progress there.

Thank you.

Julienne, we'll take one more question.

Thank you. Our last question will come from Noah Kaye from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thanks so much. So I just want to clarify a couple of quick questions. Number one, you mentioned that after implementing the cancellation policy, it didn't really appear to impact order patterns. So just to clarify, you've seen orders trending still healthy here so far in 2Q? You've not seen any pull forward?

We see some pull forward that was in Q1 that was more a factor from the price increase. But even without that, we had orders that would have contributed to strong sequential growth. So any pull forward would not have had much to do with the cancellation policy, but there would have been some pull forward in Q1 that would have been a factor of the price increase that we introduced then. We are also seeing, as I mentioned in Q1, strong project activity with multi-site and multiyear deals, and that was significant in Q1.

Right. And then a lot of talk positively around IRA and its long-term impacts; do you get any sense that, that some of the customer base is still waiting on treasury guidance for some of these credits and the like to make some decisions around investment? Any sort of sense of what that forthcoming guidance could mean in terms of opening up orders?

Yes, I know I think that's a fair assumption. Like we clearly have seen some activity of what we think of increased activity as a result, but there still is some portions waiting to be clarified. And I think it's a very fair assumption to think that some of our customers are waiting to see what that clarity is. I know, in our own case we're doing more evaluation and waiting to what some of the provisions means to us. So I think it's fair to assume our customers are doing the same thing.

Yes. So very helpful. All right, thanks so much.

Thanks Noah.

We are out of time for questions today. I would like to turn the call back over to Ms. Zellner to close out the call.

Thanks Julienne. That concludes today's call. Thank you for joining us.

That concludes today's conference call. At this time you may disconnect. Thank you.