Russell L. Gordon
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thank you, Barry. I would like to briefly cover our full year FY '16 outlook. Similar to FY '15, FY '16 has several moving parts as well. Before covering some of those items, I would like to first discuss the fundamentals of our various businesses and geographies relative to FY '15. First, in our consumer segment, we expect a return to top and bottom line growth in Synta and Kirker, both of which were significant drags on sales and earnings in FY '15. Synta has a broad range of new product offerings and placements and Kirker will increase sales from newly implemented bottling capabilities. New product innovation and market share gains should continue to drive incremental sales. Although the general economics impacting our core consumer segment are all indicating favorably, the continuation of poor weather into the summer season has gotten us off to a slower than expected start. As a result, consumer segment sales are expected to increase 4% to 5% for the year. In the industrial segment in local currencies, we expect good growth in North and South America, especially in our construction businesses. We expect continued positive momentum from our other U.S.-based businesses, such as those serving the U.S. commercial construction market as well as SPHC companies. Speaking again in local currencies, we anticipate that our European businesses will turn the corner at some point during FY '16 and resume growth. Offsetting these favorable trends will be a couple of unfavorable items. First, we have seen a decline in top line sales in our businesses serving the energy sector as overall activity is trending down with the lower cost of oil, and we expect this trend to continue during FY '16. Second, with about half of the industrial segment sales outside the U.S., the strengthening dollar will have a significant negative impact from a transactional and translational FX perspective, particularly in the first half of the fiscal year. Based on these factors, assuming no further currency devaluation in the euro and along with an anticipated benefit from the SPHC companies, we expect industrial segment sales to increase 8% to 10%. Now to some of the moving parts, FY '15 adjusted EPS of $2.38 benefitted from approximately $0.15 per share in earn-out reversals relating to Kirker and Synta. We also incurred $0.07 per share for higher legal and professional services during the year and cost cutting initiatives during the fourth quarter. Taking these items into account, the FY '15 adjusted EPS base for purposes of understanding FY '16 is $2.30 per share. With $2.30 per share as the starting point for FY '16, I should note that SPHC contributed $0.05 per share in FY '15 leaving our core EPS at $2.25. We anticipate that RPM core businesses, excluding SPHC, will grow from a base of $2.25 per share to $2.52 per share representing a 12% improvement. Additionally, we expect SPHC to contribute $0.20 per share on a full year basis. That gets us to a pro forma $2.72 per share representing an 18% improvement over last year and is a better apples-to-apples comparison to FY '15 before two additional items. The first item takes into account the negative impact of translational foreign exchange. By simply taking actual FY '15 results and applying the spot rate from this past May 31, 2015, our expected FY '16 results will be reduced by $0.07 per share. The second item relates to the anticipated change in tax rates from FY '15 to FY '16. During the third quarter of FY '15, RPM benefitted from a reversal of certain tax valuation allowances, which drove our effective tax rate for the year down to 26.2%. In FY '16, we estimate our core effective tax rate at 29%, the increase of which will reduce EPS by $0.10 per share all of which will be recognized during the FY '16 third quarter compared to the prior year. Therefore, our EPS guidance for FY '16 is $2.55 per share, which includes an incremental contribution for SPHC of $0.15 per share and a $0.27 per share or 12% incremental contribution from our core businesses, reduced by these negative tax and foreign exchange impacts. For a summary of all these moving parts, please see the investor presentation on our Web site. In order to assist you in modeling the quarterly split for our 2016 guidance, I will mention some important considerations. Number one, the $0.07 impact expected from unfavorable foreign exchange translation in FY '16 will be heavily weighted in the first half of the fiscal year. Number two, starting with the first quarter of FY '16, we expect our results will be negatively impacted by rainy weather in the U.S., which will probably be a larger drag on our consumer segment. Number three, you should keep in mind the following unusual items that impacted certain quarters during FY '15. First, during the second quarter last year, we reversed 17 million for the Kirker earn-out accruals. Secondly, in our adjusted results for the third quarter last year, our income tax line represented income non-expense of nearly $7 million. Third, as we just described for our fourth quarter, we reversed 9.9 million for the Synta earn-out accruals. This concludes our prepared remarks, and we are now happy to answer your questions.