Gary G. Winterhalter
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
I don't think it's a macro issue, and I don't think it's a low-end customer issue. I think that, at least 90% of the issue is what we're describing. When you look at our customer count going back into the early 2000s, the retail part of our business was -- the traffic increases, percentages, had been declining, and I've made this comment before, through the early 2000s. And when we started going after this whole Beauty Club Card program, it started increasing pretty significantly, and I think you saw in 2011 and '12, our customer count increases, our traffic increases, were really healthy. And again, we can kind of -- fortunately, we have that experience to look at and say, okay, this is what we did and this is what happened. And if I was looking at this, as I said earlier, and looking at a situation where we've exhausted this pool of profiled potential customers, then I would say, hey, we might be, as you guys like to call this, in the 8th or 9th inning of this game, but I don't see that at all. I see our Beauty Club Card traffic increasing, sales increasing and membership increasing, and that's without a significant funnel of retail customers, which is where most of those conversions come from, that's without that being a full funnel at this point. So I really believe that the issue is filling that funnel back up, getting retail traffic into the store, and that's going to help Beauty Club Card conversions.