Earnings Labs

Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 30, 2012

$11.47

-3.90%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.
Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Stillwater Mining Company Third Quarter 2012 Results Call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only-mode later there'll be an opportunity for your questions and instructions will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to host, Frank McAllister. Please go ahead, sir.

Frank McAllister

Management

Thank you, operator. And thank you, everyone for joining us today for Stillwater Mining Company's third quarter 2012 results conference call. We recognize there are many in the East who may not be joining us today or maybe joining this from other locations in their offices, as a result of yesterdays [turmoil], we wish the best to those who were so affected. As the operator indicated, I'm Frank McAllister, the Chairman and CEO of Stillwater Mining Company. And with me today are several members of our management team, including Greg Wing, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Terry Ackerman, Vice President of Corporate Development; Kris Koss, Vice President of Human Resources and safety, Ralph Green, Vice President of Exploration; and Rhonda Ihde, our Corporate Controller, (inaudible) Stillwater Mine Manager is standing in for Kevin Shiell, Vice President of Mining Operations, who is not with us this morning. As always, I would first like to remind everyone that some statements in the conference call will be forward-looking, and therefore, involve uncertainties or risks that could cause actual results to differ from our projected results. We discuss these risks and uncertainties in more detail in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including those discussed in our third quarter Form 10-Q, which will be filed later this afternoon. Stillwater's results for the third quarter were solid in spite of a continued volatility of the PGM prices this quarter. Our team continued to perform well in terms of safety, which is really our most important barometer success. Production results and costs were in line with expectations as we recorded that we have -- we have iterated our 2012 mine production guidance of 500,000 PGM ounces and a cash cost guidance of $500 per mined ounce. PGM prices continue to be under…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) And we'll first to Sam Crittenden with RBC Capital Marketing. Go ahead please.

Sam Crittenden - RBC Capital Markets

Management

Hi, guys. Thanks for hosting the call today. Just curious on Blitz capital update. I'm just wondering what prompted that change, I know it wasn't a major change, but just how confident are you in that new estimate of $197 million?

Frank McAllister

Management

Yeah, it's pretty straight forward. The then Benbow decline that we're putting on the North side of the mountain that will intersect both of the other address coming back in the mine, both the, one in the 600 feet above the tunnel boring machine as well, the tunnel boring machine the cost of that has increased just a bit and we're quite confident in that number at this point in time, and it really emanates from the works that was done drilling on that site, that had to take place before we could actually get a final cost number. [De] I think that's about the [stand] of it, yes. That's about the estimate. So we've re-estimated a little small, but it was important for us to get it up so everybody knew about it Sam.

Sam Crittenden - RBC Capital Markets

Management

Okay. Thanks for that Frank. And then other question on Marathon. So if there's a meaningful change in the palladium content, I'm just curious on your level of commitment to the project. And how you're thinking about making a construction decision versus some of the other options, I mean I guess you could look at the dividend or potentially another acquisition instead of funding that marathon project, just wondering if you could talk at all about that?

Frank McAllister

Management

Yes, let me talk – ever so briefly about it. I'll ask Terry Ackerman also to comment on it. First of all, we don't know the true full impact of it until we get the reserved model defined once the engineering has been completed, so it's going to be sometime early next year, before we get to that point. The commitment to the project continues, obviously the EIS is – we're fully engaged in [EIS] we're also fully engaged in the engineering process, because it will be the engineering process that's going to allow us both to know just exactly what the impact would be as well as how aggressive we need to be going forward. Terry, anything else to add?

Terry Ackerman

Management

I think that's fair.

Frank McAllister

Management

Terry, is commenting that that's about the same. He would say about the same thing.

Sam Crittenden - RBC Capital Markets

Management

Okay, so then in terms of a capital allocation decision. Would you consider looking at dividend and instead of funding the Marathon project does it also depend on metals prices, I mean how do you consider those two options?

Frank McAllister

Management

Well, that's a very good question, first of all we would expect the palladium prices to trade up. And I commented on that earlier and I'm just simply saying that because it really has traded off a little bit against the platinum price. We've been seeing, the palladium price below that 40% threshold. It moved up to in late 2010, so it's been trading and have been trading between 40% and 45%, today it's up 38.5% and you could imagine, we measure that on a by minute basis, at least, in my office. So essentially we're expecting that too move up. I suspect the platinum prices will have to move up as we move forward, simply because even at these prices, these higher prices somewhat higher prices, the – operations in the South Africa and many of them are not in the black at this point of time and obviously are not meeting the requirements for sustaining capital and the operations down there. So the platinum price is likely to move up, the palladium price is likely to move up along with that, but will move higher in – expectation as demand emerges in the auto industry up against the platinum price. As that happens I think at that point in time, we would know better as to whether or not we would commit to a buyback of shares of dividend (Inaudible) to our shareholders. I wouldn't commit to that at this point in time because obviously we've got the Blitz and Graham Creek and Marathon at this point in time are on our plate and so I think we need to finalize that assessment and then know where the metal prices are. So a little bit of an uncommitted answer there, but at least you understand the dynamics of what we're looking at.

Sam Crittenden - RBC Capital Markets

Management

Okay. Thanks guys appreciate the update.

Frank McAllister

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from John Bridges with JPMorgan.

John Bridges - JPMorgan

Management

Hi, good morning, Frank. Greg, everybody. Just wondered the this understanding on the grades, palladium grades at marathon, what sort of order of magnitude or difference are we talking about – what if you've seen, which concerns you about the original estimates?

Frank McAllister

Management

John there was an error in the calculation, that was made by the third party. And we discovered that in a process of simply making sure that as we went back into it, that we actually created our own model if you will. So we didn't depend up on the third party model we were creating our own model. And then actually going to a third party to validate that model in the process of that this error was discovered. At this point in time all my guys are just saying look wait until we get to the point to where we understand exactly the impact on the reserve before we talk about how much it was affected. There will be some less palladium and that we know, we do know there's more tonnage, we do know that the – and the tonnage comes from obviously higher metal prices as well, as additional drilling that we took there. So it's all sort of in an overall calculation at this point in time, it's very difficult for us to define just exactly what the impact is going to be. So we've in abundance of caution we're just simply waiting. I remain optimistic, let me just put it that far enough will beyond that, Terry anything else to say on that.

Terry Ackerman

Management

Premature at this time.

John Bridges - JPMorgan

Management

Okay. Hello--

Frank McAllister

Management

Hi, John, I guess at this point in time, Terry has nothing further to say and it's really premature for us to do for anything further.

John Bridges - JPMorgan

Management

Just a little piece of bookkeeping, you say that the, it's like cleaning furnaces is going to save 4000 ounces a year, or - -at 4000 a year, but I thought that you recycling that slag through the mine. So wouldn't it just be a – reduction in the amount of metal going around and not circulating load. A onetime saving?

Frank McAllister

Management

I have to tell you what you're saying is exactly what I thought originally when we were putting this slag cleaning furnace on. And that essentially what we would be doing is accelerating that recovery rather than having to sending it back up to the mill. The reality is is that the slag cleaning furnace will actually recover a greater amount of the metal that's bound up in the slag than we can at the mill so number 1 is we get more out than we get at the mill just simply by doing in the cleaning furnace. In addition to that we will still get an incremental amount coming out from the slag that goes back to the mill as well. So in our calculation what we’ve done and said okay here is the amount of slag going back to the mine. What we calculate as the recovery from that slag going back up to the mine. What do we now calculate is being the recovery that we can realize from the slag cleaning furnace and the 4,000 ounces is the difference between the two. So it really truly is an incremental amount. Now I’d have to also add that the estimate is that the majority of that is probably going to come from the recycling business simply because there is greater loss in the recycling business when we get into adding the recycling materials in to our furnace. So to a certain extent this is recovery from some of the recycling ounces or more in the recycling ounces than the mined ounces. I’d also have to add to it that our ratio of slag – ratio of metals in the furnace is not the three to one that we have the ratio coming from the mine, but it’s a bit different because it’s now added in with the metal coming in from the recycling which is probably about 40% to 60% ratio. So to a certain extent it’s going to have a bit more platinum and considerable amount more rhodium, because we do receive a substantial amount of rhodium in the catalytic converter material. So it’s a good thing and it also pays for us than to have that furnace online as redundancy in case we have a need to take the main smelting furnace down.

John Bridges - JPMorgan

Management

Okay, so the 4,000 is an improvement in efficiency. So presumably there is a one off gain as you pull that extra metal out of the circulating load, which would be an improvements in working capital. What would that be?

Francis McAllister

Management

I don’t know the answer to that, that’s a great question. I will get the answer to that. But you’re absolutely right, there will be a one-off gain in the recirculating mode. I wouldn’t expect that’s going to be high, but it’s going to be important so we should have calculated that too John. Thank you for bringing that up.

John Bridges - JPMorgan

Management

It will be useful the model anyway. Then just finally given the long term nature of the Altar project and the uncertainty that everybody is facing in Argentina. I am just wondering how committed are you to continuing to spend there and what would be the any penalties of not spending there for a year or two?

Francis McAllister

Management

I am going to make sure Terry and Ralph check me on this, but I will give you sort of the take on it to start with. Obviously we’re watching all of the issues there very closely, our budget process is underway right now, so we’ve not yet committed to exactly how much they spend will be down there. We had enormously better efficiencies with our drilling program that took place during this past year, where we had estimated we might spend as much as $25 million and now we’re suggesting that that’s down to $20 million despite the fact that we increased our – the amount of drilling that we did on the project. So I think the issue is one of the project is a great project, obviously metal prices are off a little and we’re going to have to take that into consideration. Obviously, the changes in Argentina make us watch it very closely, so we’ll have to take that into consideration, but at this point in time the project really looks good, John.

John Bridges - JPMorgan

Management

Okay, that’s the end of my questions, thank you. And I also thanks for the PGM market update that was very helpful.

Francis McAllister

Management

You bet. John how was the – how is the weather there?

John Bridges - JPMorgan

Management

Much better than last night. We’ve lost power but otherwise the house is still on its foundations, so we should be thankful for that.

Francis McAllister

Management

Thank you for that update. Operator?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Richard Garchitorena with Credit Suisse. Go ahead please.

Richard Garchitorena - Credit Suisse

Management

Thanks, good morning guys.

Francis McAllister

Management

Good morning Richard.

Richard Garchitorena - Credit Suisse

Management

I’ve some couple of quick questions, first on Marathon. The issues with the reserves, is that just sort of the palladium or is there any concern about copper content there?

Francis McAllister

Management

It just palladium, and to a certain extent because of the price and some of the drilling we may actually have some improvement and some of the other metals, but it’s I headed myself by even saying that Richard.

Richard Garchitorena - Credit Suisse

Management

Okay, that’s helpful. And then I guess if you had any color just on in terms of how this may play out with Mitsubishi you’ve obviously probably had discussions with them, but if there is a significant less put material there how do you see the potential scenario playing out there I guess.

Francis McAllister

Management

Well, let me not speak for them, but let me just report on a meeting that we had on the 11th for the month. This is our normal regular Board meeting, joint venture Board meeting was held in Toronto and at that point in time they were focused strictly on moving this thing ahead as quickly as we could, and making sure that some of the issues that we have in terms of staffing for the project, in terms of the negotiations with first nations we’re proceeding ahead. So I am not going to put words in their mouth, but they were focused just as we were on making sure that we move ahead of the project and with all due diligence.

Richard Garchitorena - Credit Suisse

Management

Okay, that’s helpful. Then my other question just related to the guidance for this year, obviously given the strong operating results this quarter, it implies for the full year that your production will come down in the fourth quarter and cash costs will increase. So is there anything specific you can give us in terms of guidance. Is it going to be great, I know –East Boulder grade I think came down a little bit in the third quarter, but is there anything else specific that could suggest us or push to that number or are you just being conservative?

Francis McAllister

Management

We tumbled to that very point here, to your very point early this morning, we had a conversation about that we’re likely to get asking you know is production going to be off in the fourth quarter. Essentially what we’re saying is that in our guidance was 500,000 ounces that average is about 125,000 ounces a quarter. We’ve been ahead of that, we’re not saying we’re going to be behind that. I guess if you take it and divide it by four and say 125,000 ounces that’s probably is closer to what we would expect our real guidance is, and so, no we’re not going to suggest it’s going to be off, it’s just that we reiterated our beginning guidance. Thank you for the point because we’ll probably be a bit more careful in terms of that in the future.

Richard Garchitorena - Credit Suisse

Management

No problem and that’s very helpful. Thank you.

Francis McAllister

Management

You bet.

Operator

Operator

Mr. McAllister we have no further questions, please go ahead with any closing remarks.

Francis McAllister

Management

I’d just comment, we’re very grateful for those who were able to make the call this morning, anxious about those who were not. Obviously this call will be rebroadcast for anybody that missed the call and would like to listen in. And we feel for those who are having problems in the New York area. Just a comment that things are going very well here, we’ve reported in quite some detail about our projects, about our operation, about the funding that we did earlier this month and everything looks very good. I would commiserate with those in South Africa and know that they’ve got some issues they’ve got to deal with. As we said [we visited] with them, we know them quite well, we know their situation down there. Obviously we don’t leave it first hand, but we know them well and wish them the best. We know they’re committed to a resolution and that makes us feel good because their production is terribly important worldwide. With that said operator thank you very much and I will turn it back over to you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this conference will be available for replay afternoon today through mid night November 6. You may access the AT&T executive playback service at anytime by dialing 1800-475-6701 and entering the access code 267982. International callers dial 320-365-3844 using the same access code 267982. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Executive Teleconference. You may now disconnect.