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Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 27, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Stillwater Mining Company Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2012 Results Call. [Operator Instructions] And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'll now turn the conference over to Frank McAllister at Stillwater. Please go ahead, sir.

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

Thank you, Cathy. And welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for this conference call. As the operator indicated, I'm Frank McAllister. I'm the Chairman and CEO of Stillwater Mining Company. And with me today are several members of our management team, including Greg Wing, our Vice President, Chief Financial Officer; Terry Ackerman, Vice President of Corporate Development; Kevin Shiell, Vice President of Mining Operations; Kris Koss, Vice President of Human Resources and Safety; and Rhonda Ihde, our Corporate Controller. This call is for the purpose of reporting Stillwater Mining Company's 2012 results. As always, I would just like to remind everyone that some statements in this conference call will be forward-looking and therefore, involve uncertainties or risks that could cause actual results to differ from our projected results. We discussed these risks and uncertainties in more detail in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including those discussed in the company's 2012 annual report on Form 10-K that will be filed later this afternoon. Stillwater had an exceptional fourth quarter in year 2012. Our operations, both at our mines and our processing facilities, performed extremely well. Production and cost results both came in better than planned and most importantly, combined safety performance at our 2 Montana Mines was the best in Stillwater's history. And in conjunction with our outstanding operating performance, the PGM price trends saw an upswing during the fourth quarter. Our average metal prices were lower during 2012 when compared to 2011. PGM prices began to recover during the fourth quarter from the declines experienced in the second half of 2011 through 2012. Thus, our combined average realized price for mined PGM ounce during the fourth quarter of 2012 was back up to about $867 per ounce, essentially flat with the fourth quarter…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Dave Gagliano with Barclays.

David Gagliano - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

I just have a few sort of line item questions. On the exploration spending plans for 2013, can you quantify how much you plan to spend at Altar and is there any -- and also, what is the variability in terms of quarterly exploration spending plans there?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

Sure. The expenditures in 2013 for the 2013 season, some of which started in December, would be about $13 million, of which about $2 million of that is actually G&A. So I think the total spending for direct exploration is about $11 million. And quarterly, we have a little bit of spending in December. I think that probably was around $1.5 million and the rest of that will actually, probably, be coming in the first quarter. There may be some that will come over into the second quarter but the majority of that goes through the drill season down there which is really December, January, February, March. But sometimes, the season is open enough for work to continue into April. Dave, is that helpful? There will be some additional exploration that will go on on the Marathon project next door to the Marathon project on our property up there -- on the Bermuda property up there. I think that's budgeted at about $3 million.

David Gagliano - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Now, that's very helpful.

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

And that will be spread over sort of the summertime period.

David Gagliano - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Next question, interest expense line seemed a bit high, even after we factor in the convert. Was there anything going on there in the fourth quarter that isn't going to happen in the subsequent quarters?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

No. I think the interesting thing there is that while the convert has a 1 3/4% interest rate, that's what we pay on a cash basis from an accounting standpoint, that convert -- the new convert is accounted for at a computed 8% rate and that is what is increasing the interest rate there. So it's not a cash lien but what we do is we decrease the value of the convert carried on the books and that will increase with that additional interests accrued over the time the period the convert being outstanding.

Gregory A. Wing

Analyst

It isn't the full $400 million that takes the 8% or 8.5% interest rate. It's a discounted bifurcated in the accounting sense between debt and equity. So we've got about the $250 million of debt from that which we pay at 8.5% on, if that's helpful.

David Gagliano - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

And then just the last question. 2014, 2015 CapEx, if you add up all the moving parts and think about what's been spent on Marathon and also make some assumptions for maintenance CapEx, et cetera. It looks to me like it's a range of somewhere around $250 million to $300 million for 2014 and 2015. Is that a reasonable assumption for total CapEx in the out years?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

David, let me not provide your guidance on that. Let me sort of talk openly without providing guidance because we're not prepared to do that. First of all, obviously, we're going to get into a permitting issue. I mentioned that not a permitting issue but the permit will be opened up for the Benbow area here in Montana. That will likely increase our cost over at the Blitz, the spending at Blitz. At this point in time because the permit is sort of an open-ended thing until it comes into hand, it's hard for us to say just exactly how much that will increase that. I think we've got the spending over at Graham Creek will begin to diminish a little bit as we move forward after 2014. But it will still be continuing in 2015 with those raises. The spending at the Far West will continue kind of on a sustained basis for a 3-year period of time. So the spending there is not necessarily ramping up with the exception of the Benbow added. At Marathon, it's a bit early to explain just exactly what the spending might be up there but your sense of spending is probably correct from the standpoint if we're successful with the permitting and with the negotiations with the First Nations and aboriginal groups, if we're successful with BIS [ph] which looks really good at this point in time, the spending will increase and it will be up substantially. I would say, we report 100% in our financials for the Marathon expenditures but we only sustained 75% of that with our partner, Mitsubishi, who, by the way, is a terrific partner, footing the other 25%. We're also investigating and looking for a project financing that will help us with that project up there. And obviously, Mitsubishi is very helpful in that arena. I don't know that helps, Dave. I apologize for not being crystal-clear on it but it's still some moving parts there.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll go next to Richard Garchitorena with Crédit Suisse. Richard Garchitorena - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: So just the first question, it looks like your sales were a little lower than production in Q4. I assume that's with timing of shipments? Would you expect to make that up in the first quarter?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

Absolutely right, that's exactly what goes on there. It's that the production going through the plants sometimes does not quite meet the production rate of the mine. Sometimes, it exceeds, sometimes, behind, and you're exactly right. It just catches up. Richard Garchitorena - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Great. Okay, and then just turning to CapEx, you gave some detailed overview of your plans for this year. I was just curious about one line item, processing another $20 million expected for this year. Is there anything specific there?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

No, that's simply -- well, there are 2 or 3 things going on there but for the most part, what we have is a rebuild of what we call are -- sorry, the -- I'm losing the name, the thickener for our processing the SO2 that comes out of our stacks. That thickener has been in place now for many, many years, would sort of held it together over the last number of years. And at this point in time, it needs to be rebuilt and that's part of the cost there. Aside from that, there are no real big costs that are going into that area. Richard Garchitorena - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: My last question, just you gave some detailed information on cash costs over the past 5 years or so, and obviously ramping up production over the next 5 years. You highlight the fact that the last 5 years average growth in terms of cash costs about 7%. Is that, in your view, is that a good run rate to sort of think about at a normal growth rate for cash cost and then obviously, that will change depending on production ramping up, as you mentioned earlier, and also new projects and where those cash costs are?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

I think I would be remiss if I were to say that that's exactly it because obviously, you see the production cost in 2013 going up quite strongly, about 16% is what we're projecting. But when we look back, and look I've got 2 different numbers here and I'll give you 2 different numbers. One is if we look back to 2008 through the third quarter of 2012, when comparing ourselves against our peer group out there, our costs were up 5% during that period of time. Our North American base metals were up 8%. North American silver was up 8%. South African PGMs were up 13%. By the way, they were up 20% last year and the North American Gold was up 14% during that period of time. So we compare very favorably. Then the 7% or 8% we were talking about were also way below all the rest of our peer group. Now, having said that, there are a couple of things and I've mentioned them but I think they're worth reiterating based on your question, Richard. One is that we cut back sharply late 2008 which we do start cost during 2009, 2010. That was an unsustainable cost-reduction. We try to explain it at that point in time so everybody would understand that we were sort of borrowing from the future, if you will, if we were to be able to sustain our production rates at the 500,000 ounce level. So in 2011, as prices came back up late in 2010, we resumed spending and development during that period of time to be able to restore where we were so that production going forward would be able to be sustained. And Kevin talks to me now and he says "Look, we finally get back literally to the…

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Sam Dubinsky with Wells Fargo.

Sam Dubinsky - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Just a couple follow-ups. In terms of cash mining cost, how does that trend again through 2013? What's the linearity of it?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

It's pretty steady as we go through the year, except when it comes down to the wage increase. The wage increase comes middle of the year, typically. And then East Boulder will come at the end of the year so literally, what we have is the East Boulder just kicked in just a couple of months ago and that will go flat through the year. But at Stillwater, the increase in wages kicks in July 1. And so you have a bump there, but the rest of it is as you see receding faces and you have to add incremental people that takes place over the year as we add miners. This is not bringing in the 50 people at the beginning of the year, this is bringing in 50 people over the year as we train the miners. And so that's sort of spread over the year. I don't know of any other cost jumps or bumps that would take place, most of it is on that basis.

Sam Dubinsky - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

So a little lower in the beginning of the year and a little bit higher in the back half of the year?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

I think that's how you can look at it, yes.

Sam Dubinsky - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then obviously, the PGM market is pretty tight right now. Do you have any color on inventory levels, your catalytic converter customers? Are they themselves supply-constrained? Have they been building inventory, or are they themselves sort of running hand to mouth?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

They're about level in the hand to mouth right now. I'd have to say some of them are starting to talk about 2014 already, which is very early in the cycle and much sooner than we would have expected. But that's sort of as a signal that their hand-to-mouth situation, they're looking forward themselves.

Sam Dubinsky - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, great. And then just some housekeeping questions. In terms of interest expense, I know you just said it was $7 million a quarter on a GAAP basis. What is the cash interest expense on a dollar amount?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

Let's see. You'd have to run it 1 3/4% against $400 million and the other portion is going to be paid off by -- excuse me, the $166 million we paid off in about 2 weeks time. So that'll be gone. So it's really 1 3/4% against the $400 million or $397 million.

Sam Dubinsky - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, great. And also just tax rate for 2013?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

Tax rate for 2013, 20%? It may be a little bit below that, actually. But that, at most, that's it.

Gregory A. Wing

Analyst

By the way, I'll just comment that when all of a sudden everything changes, you've made good on everything and you're now making money, taxes that tend to wind up catching up with you and you now got to go back and figure out just exactly what you are, it's a good thing to have to pay taxes. I have to say that.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll go to Andy Shellfit [ph], private investor.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

I think I want to touch on a little more sensitive matter right now, and feel free to comment as you may because I'm going to make comments not so much in the form of a question but general comments on the initiatives from the Clinton group. And I want to say upfront that I am a current shareholder. I'm a former securities analyst. I have no affiliation or involvement with the Clinton group. However, having read their letter back in December, I found myself somewhat in agreement with certain points that they made. I was particularly concerned...

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

Let me just sort of -- I apologize for this, to cutting you off but we're really dealing at this time with -- the purpose of the call is for 2012 results and operations. We're going to have plenty of time to deal with that and we'll come back to it. And I apologize for this and I understand your point. Let me be specific about the Clinton letter. Look, we're excited about where we are positioned. Palladium market and its outlook in operations and growth are very, very good. We believe we've been very clear about our strategy, which is focused on our Montana PGM operations and growth initiatives, first and foremost. And importantly, we are well-positioned from both an operational and financial standpoint to execute on our strategy at a time when most peers face significant operational and financial challenges. And we're confident our strategy best positions the company to maximize long-term shareholder value. So I apologize for that but really, what we're trying to deal with is the 2012 results, fourth quarter results, metal markets if you will. But at this point in time, I apologize but we're just not ...

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Fair enough, Frank, and I understand. And I can accept your response. No apologies necessary. Do you have any significant fears of a major supply interruption in the PGM market? We all know what's going on in South Africa. We don't know ultimately how that's all going to unfold. Clearly, there are concerns. And I wonder, to what extent you as a management team, may have fears of a major supply interruption and anything that you might be doing in connection with that possibility?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

A fair question, great question. Look, the Palladium market going forward and the platinum market going forward are supply constrained, just as you mentioned, just as I had said in the past. Obviously, South Africa is faced with great headwinds at this point in time. They're not just cost headwinds. They're political headwinds, they're operational headwinds, they're labor-related, in particular, and the labor relations down there are strained at the best. I think that's perhaps a soft tone to be able to say it at this point in time. We know the people there very well. We're intimate in terms of discussions with them on the legitimate areas. We don't talk price and we don't talk production because those things are off the radar screen. But we observe exactly what they're doing and we know them personally. They're a good group. They're good managers. There's been turnovers in their ranks down there this past year. Obviously, that's because they've had significant challenges. And the challenges going forward, when you put together a new shaft down in South Africa, which has to go down some to the depth of 2 kilometers, that's something that in the planning and outfitting and development stage takes up to a minimum of 10 years and some of them are expressing as much as 15 years to put in place. Now, what's happening at the present is some of those development initiatives are being held back, being held back simply because they cannot fund them at these current prices. I think probably, over 2 million ounces in the last part of last year were underwater just simply to meet the cash cost of operations, forget the development cost down there. We share and we will continue to share with the industry, what the cost on a…

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Fair enough. Last question, the shareholders meeting. When do you expect to be able to announce when that will occur? I assume it will be in May or June but...

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

It will be in May. The date, at this point in time, is May 2. I will be at the Stillwater Mine and bring your lazy clothes, if you will. Bring the clothes that you would not want to get dirty and go underground with us. Going to be at the Stillwater Mine where it's just -- this is an exciting thing. We had a family day for our worker and their families last year. The guys, I mean, it was just something to bring a tear in your eye to see the people go underground. Children, obviously we had a cut-off age to having the children, wives and fathers and uncles and cousins going underground. We learned that we can do that in a safe, protected way. Obviously, we aren't taking them off to the extreme parts of the mine. In this case, we'll take shareholders over to see the tunnel-boring machine which is well, literally only about a thousand feet back into the mountain which is quite easy.

Operator

Operator

We now have a question from Sam Crittenden with RBC Capital Markets.

Sam Crittenden - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Just a question on growing your workforce. So if you could just remind us where you're at with the number of miners you have now and how many miners do you think you'd need to sustain the sort of 600,000 ounce level of production you're talking about? And then, just finally, how many workers you're expected to sort of retire over the next 5 years? Just sort of curious on how you're thinking about that ramp up in the workforce?

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

Kevin Shiell winds up worried about this at night when he goes to bed and worried about it in the morning when he gets up. I'm going to let him speak to this because it's his one of his major drives and what he does. And when we sit down with the board, and when we sit down with management, he has the numbers, he talks about them. He talks about the attrition rate, he talks about the attrition not just from the standpoint of miners retiring or moving on in their lives but obviously moving onto other mines. Let me preface this just a little bit ahead before Kevin gives you the numbers, to say only that in 2008, we made a very large change to our manpower dynamics. And that change came when we moved from what we call the 7 on, 7 off work schedule were a miner could work 7 days, 7 11-hour days and then be off for 7 days. And that allowed him to sort of live anywhere he could want to be, where his family might be. Whether it was in Idaho or in Wyoming or Nevada or even Arizona. So they lived all over the place. What we concluded is that sort of made us a transient mining workforce with people moving in and out. And the turnover rate was extremely high because of that, because they're up in Idaho and the Idaho guys are hiring. Why would they go back to work at the silver mines instead of continuing to make the commute to here? We changed that and obviously, the workforce understood what we were doing and why we were doing it. We worked with them in the process of doing it and we changed it to a 4 on, 4 off schedule. What we now have is really a Montana family workforce. And it is what's happened in the workforce as a result of that is dramatic. Productivity, safety, turnover rates, supervision, you name it. It is changed. And the culture amongst our miners is just, I have to tell you, at this point in time, is really very, very high and very good. The collaborative nature, we've done some surveys in the last year which just show that the change that's taken place over this last 3 to 4-year period of time since we made that change that that was the right way to go. Even though we did lose a few miners upfront. Kevin, I'm sorry. I'm going to stop. Why don't you tell them the numbers?

Kevin G. Shiell

Analyst

At the beginning of 2012, we had about 450 miners across both mines. And where we need to go, we need to add about 90 miners by 2018. So that number could be about 540 and that's what's driving the miner through training program. Phenomenally, we'll have about 90 people committed per year in that program for the next 5 years. And obviously, that focus or that scope will change based on the attrition we see as we march forward through the plan.

Sam Crittenden - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

And how long does it take in the miner training program? Like once you're in there for a year, you're sort of out working at that point? Is that the time frame?

Kevin G. Shiell

Analyst

It's different between the 2 mines. I mean, if we had the best of everything. It would be about 1 year program. The reality is we've condensed that, consolidated that program a little bit and it's basically a 6-month program. And then they go out into the workforce and work with a miner 1 or a miner 2 to gain more experience. And realistically, by the time they're a miner 1, it's about 3 years out.

Sam Crittenden - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

And you're getting good demand for that program currently? What's the employment like in the general area? Are people wanting to come work at the mines right now?

Kevin G. Shiell

Analyst

Yes. That's -- we're...

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

When we open up the call in, sometimes we get about 10 times as many people on the roster as we can handle at that point in time. Now, let me point out. We're not that far away from the Bakken. And obviously, employment in buildings has been affected dramatically by that. But at the same time, the rate of our -- the new hire sign-ups is very, very high. It's very good. We're pleased and that gives us the ability to make sure that we get the right people.

Operator

Operator

And we have no further questions, Mr. McAllister. Please go ahead with any closing remarks.

Francis R. McAllister

Analyst

I'll just comment that we're getting close to the hour point that people have budgeted for the call and I appreciate your patience and attention today in joining us. The future looks really great and thank you very much. Thank you, operator.