Troy Alstead
Analyst · Barclays Capital
Thanks, Howard, and good afternoon, everyone. Building on Howard's comments, the fourth quarter was an outstanding one for us, continuing the momentum from prior periods and capping a truly landmark year for the company. We recorded the highest earnings per share and consolidated operating margin in Starbucks' history for both the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year. Strong comparable store sales growth, including the acceleration of the two-year trend in the fourth quarter and increased leverage as a result of our work to become a more efficient operator, contributed to the record results. Considering the still-challenging macro environment and the investments we are making today that will benefit future periods, these results are particularly rewarding and substantiate our efforts to increase the value of our business model through both customer-facing and back-of-house initiatives. Today, I'll provide additional details on our fiscal fourth quarter results as well as a recap of our full year fiscal 2010 performance. Then I will provide an update to our outlook for fiscal 2011 based on recent trends throughout the business. Fourth quarter revenues were $2.8 billion, up 17% from $2.4 billion a year ago. The revenue increase was due to an extra fiscal week in 2010 and an 8% increase in comparable store sales attributable to a 5% increase in traffic and a 2% increase in the average value per transaction. Excluding the 53rd week, revenue growth for the quarter was 9%, primarily driven by the increase in comparable store sales. Both one-year and two-year comp growth was strong again this quarter. In particular, two-year comp growth continue to accelerate, and two-year traffic growth reached the highest level in three years and is indicative of the continued improvement in the health of our global business. We reported consolidated operating income of $399 million in the fourth quarter, including $6 million of restructuring charges related to previously announced store closures in our International segment. Excluding those charges, non-GAAP operating income was $406 million. This compares to fourth quarter fiscal 2009 operating income of $199 million and non-GAAP operating income of $253 million. This quarter brings to a close to the restructuring charges related to previously announced store-closure programs in the U.S. and International segments. Consolidated operating margin was 14.1% on a GAAP basis and 14.3% on a non-GAAP basis, reflecting a 390 basis point improvement compared to last year's non-GAAP operating margin. Similar to recent quarters, comparable store sales growth combined with operational improvements are creating significant flow-through to operating income. Earnings per share was $0.37 for the fourth quarter, compared to $0.20 per share in last year's fiscal fourth quarter. Non-GAAP EPS was also $0.37, compared to non-GAAP EPS of $0.24 a year ago. The 53rd week contributed approximately $0.05 to EPS this quarter. Excluding the extra week, non-GAAP EPS grew 33% in the fourth quarter. Before moving to the non-GAAP results of our operating segments, I would like to point out a slight change in our reporting structure this quarter as we uphold the results of our Seattle's Best Coffee and digital ventures businesses into other, along with our unallocated corporate expenses. While Seattle's Best Coffee had portions of its results previously embedded in all three of operating segments, the largest impact is to our Consumer Products Group, since Foodservice and Packaged Coffee make up the largest share of the SBC business. We made this change to align with our internal management reporting structure and because of our belief in the long-term growth prospects of SBC. With that, I will now move onto the results from our U.S. segment. Total U.S. net revenues for the quarter were $2 billion, a 15% increase from a year ago. Company-operated U.S. retail revenues increased 15% to $1.8 billion for the quarter due to the extra week and an 8% increase in comp sales. The comp increase was driven by a 6% increase in traffic and a 2% increase in the average value per transaction. Excluding the extra week, U.S. segment revenue growth was 7%. The 6% increase in transactions was the third straight quarter with positive year-over-year traffic and matches last year's strong performance. Traffic growth measured over a two-year period continued to accelerate and reached its highest point in over three years. Customers are responding well to the enhancements we've made to the in-store experience, and satisfaction scores continue at near-record levels. Additionally, as Howard mentioned earlier, our loyalty program continues to gain traction with customers. And similar to last quarter, we estimate that it contributed roughly a point to the overall comp growth this quarter. The relaunch of our Frappuccino platform last quarter through a customizable offering continue to perform well, also contributing roughly a point to the overall comp growth. With respect to the increase in average value per transaction, the pricing architecture work that we started in the fiscal fourth quarter of last year was the largest contributor, followed by VIA sales, which were enhanced by the introduction of Iced VIA and the continued expansion of our food-warming program. U.S. cost of sales including occupancy was 38.0% of total revenues in the fourth quarter, an improvement of 200 basis points compared to the year-ago period. Most of the improvement was the result of sales leverage and supply-chain efficiencies, partially offset by higher dairy costs. U.S. operating expenses were 38.2% of total revenues, a 220 basis point improvement over last year. Sales leverage was the primary reason for the improvement as we continue to drive efficiency at the store level. While efficiency is a key focus, the quality of the customer experience is paramount, and we understand the importance of striking the right balance for the long-term health of the business. We continue to make progress on the refinement of our work routines within the store, including a recent change related to beverage production intended to create a better and more consistent experience for our customers in terms of beverage quality and speed of service. Additionally, we're providing new tools to our store partners that will enable them to focus more on providing world-class customer service. Our new point-of-sale system is now deployed to roughly half of our U.S. stores, and we anticipate that we will have it in all U.S. company-operated stores by the end of this current quarter. This tool is much more intuitive to the user and provide several benefits, including faster training of new baristas, better speed of service and more accurate orders. Another tool, our new inventory management system, is now deployed to all company-operated U.S. stores. This system allows our store partners to have improved visibility into their store's particular inventory needs, increasing their ability to have the right products on hand while managing waste more effectively. U.S. operating income was $343 million for the quarter, a 66% increase compared to last year. The operating margin improved 530 basis points to 17.4% of related revenues from 12.1% a year ago. The primary driver behind the margin improvement was sales leverage and strong comps along with a more efficient operating model contributed to create powerful flow-through. U.S. segment continues to be the engine behind our outstanding performance as a company. We are reaching new highs in profitability, and we see new opportunities for disciplined growth ahead in this segment. Our stores provide the foundational experience to our customers, and we continue to bring that experience to more consumers around the world, which brings me to one of our future growth engines, International. International total net revenues increased 21% to $619 million in the fourth quarter, driven by the extra week, comparable store sales growth of 7% and the acquisition of France market at the beginning of the fiscal year. The comp growth was driven by a 4% increase in traffic and a 3% increase in the average value per transaction. Excluding the extra week, revenue growth for International was 12%. In line with recent trends, we again saw broad-based strength across all markets, with the U.K., Canada, and China contributing the most to comp growth. Transaction growth remains strong across all key markets as we continue to improve the customer experience using many of the strategies that were successful in the U.S. Also, we have recently started to realize some increase in the average value per transaction in the U.K. and Canada as we refined our pricing architecture in those markets similar to what we began in the U.S. just over a year ago. China comps continue to be exceptional, accelerating this quarter from the already strong double-digit trends in recent quarters as we've been successful with local product offerings in addition to the core beverage lineup. The strong comp growth is contributing to significant operating income and margin improvement in the region. We will share more insight into this region and others at our upcoming investor conference. International operating income was $91 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, more than double last year's $45 million. In fact, operating income for the last two quarters alone surpassed the previous full year record for operating income in this segment, tangible proof that we've reached a critical turning point in this business. Operating margin improved by 600 basis points to 14.7% building from last quarter's 10.9% and reaching an all-time quarterly record. Key drivers of the margin improvement compared to last year includes sales leverage and supply-chain efficiency. Acknowledging the benefit from the extra week this quarter, the recent performance trends at the International segment are still impressive. We are now starting to hit our stride internationally, and we're more confident than ever in the potential that resides outside the U.S. Key growth markets such as China are performing exceptionally well, and we're starting to reach the scale at which we can begin to leverage the infrastructure we've been building over several years. There are still opportunities to go deeper with disciplined store growth in our largest, most mature markets where we expect to accelerate store growth in those that are still emerging or under penetrated. This growth will enable us to improve on existing operating margins while bringing the Starbucks' store experience to more customers around the globe and ultimately increasing our share of coffee consumption in our markets. As the foundation to Starbucks, our store experience allows us to build trust with our customers and opens the door to growth opportunities in other channels that tend to offer higher returns with less capital, which now brings me to the results of our global Consumer Products Group. CPG total net revenues increased 19% to $201 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010. Slightly less than half of the increase was due to the extra week in the quarter. The remainder of the increase was spread across the portfolio, including VIA and Packaged Coffee sales. Operating income for the segment decreased 10% to $79 million for the quarter, and operating margin decreased to 39.4% from 52.0% last year. The margin decrease was primarily due to the launch expenses for VIA and the lower income from our ready-to-drink partnership. The decline in income from the ready-to-drink business is primarily related to increased dairy costs, combined with a price rollback in the grocery aisle, slightly offset by an increase in volume. We continue to drive distribution, placement, awareness and trial for VIA in this channel that is critical for future growth, and we're extremely encouraged by the results to date. Over time, we expect CPG, both domestic and international, to eventually hold the lion's share of sales for this product, similar to Packaged Coffee sales. I mentioned the segment reporting change earlier that moved Seattle's Best Coffee and digital ventures in with our unallocated corporate expenses. Almost all of the revenue in this grouping is related to the Seattle's Best Coffee business. Revenue for this group increased 46% this quarter to $44 million, the majority of which was driven by SBC Foodservice sales. We will share more on our strategy for SBC and how it fits into our enterprise portfolio at the upcoming investor conference in December. Corporate, general and administrative expenses increased 25% compared to the same quarter last year, primarily due to the extra week in the quarter and performance-based compensation. I will now recap our full year fiscal 2010 performance and a few key metrics. Earnings per share was $1.24, compared to $0.52 last year. Excluding restructuring and transformation-related costs, non-GAAP EPS was $1.28, compared to $0.80 per share in fiscal 2009. We recognized $53 million in restructuring charges in fiscal 2010, the majority of which is related to the previously announced store closures. Consolidated revenues for fiscal 2010 increased 10% to $10.7 billion. The increase was mostly due to a 7% increase in comparable store sales, comprised of a 4% increase in transactions and a 3% in the average value per transaction. The addition of a 53rd week and the foreign currency translation primarily related to the Canadian dollar also contributed to the increase. With respect to comparable store sales, the U.S. segment had the largest impact where comps increased by 7% with a 3% increase in traffic and 4% increase in the average value per transaction. Internationally, comps were also strong for the year, with 6% growth overall comprised of a 5% increase in transactions and a 1% increase in the average value per transaction. As we have discussed today and in prior quarters, momentum built throughout the year as we work to improve the customer experience to add new innovations such as VIA and our customizable Frappuccino platform and to build frequency to our revamped Starbucks Rewards loyalty program. I'd like to share a few details on the performance of VIA this year. We launched VIA in five countries during fiscal 2010, first into our retail stores followed by other channels such as grocery and Foodservice. We estimate overall systems sales to be roughly $180 million for the year, of which nearly 80% is attributed to the United States channel. To put this in perspective, according to external estimates, less than 1% of all new U.S. product launches in the consumer product space reached the $100 million threshold in the first year after introduction. We will share much more information on VIA at our upcoming analyst conference, including some statistics that show how VIA is being used in ways that are incremental to other coffee occasions and substantiate our belief that VIA is a platform that is poised for significant future growth. The conclusion of fiscal 2010 represents a milestone for the company in many regards. We exited the year in a much stronger financial position than we entered it. We returned to top line growth during the year. We achieved record levels of profitability due to the combination of that top line growth and the operational leverage of our improved business model. Financial results from this year provide a confirmation in our belief that we have successfully transformed the U.S. business from where it was only two years ago. With the U.S. business healthy, our focus is now on capitalizing on the significant opportunities that exist through international store expansion and outside the store in our CPG segment. Starbucks continues to generate significant free cash flow as a result of the health of our business model, enabling us to both fund profitable growth opportunities and to return significant amounts of cash back to shareholders. We generated $1.7 billion of operating cash flow and over $1.2 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2010. We initiated our first ever dividend this year, and we repurchased over 11 million shares during the year. In total, we returned approximately $460 million to shareholders in fiscal 2010 through dividends and share repurchases. With a less capital-intensive stage of growth on the horizon, we're in a strong position to enhance shareholder returns in the future using these levers as appropriate. I will now give you an update to the fiscal 2011 outlook that was provided on last quarter's call. Given Howard's comments related to our partnership with Kraft and the evolving nature of those developments, this outlook does not reflect any potential changes to revenue nor expenses related to those developments. We will share more details as and when appropriate. We expect mid to high single-digit revenue growth for the year on a 52 week basis, driven by low to mid single-digit comp growth. We closed fiscal 2010 with strong top line momentum, and we expect that strength to continue as our business is healthy and an improved store experience is resonating with customers. Despite the strength and momentum in our business, we remain somewhat cautious as we recognize that the economy is still pressuring consumers with indicators such as unemployment, housing and consumer confidence slow to recover from the recession. Our outlook for store growth is unchanged. We plan to add approximately 500 net new stores globally, with roughly 100 in the U.S. and roughly 400 in international. The majority of the new additions in both segments are expected to be licensed stores. We now expect capital expenditures to be approximately $550 million to $600 million for fiscal 2011. This is a slight increase from the outlook provided on last quarter's call, driven in part by more capital for renovations. Full year non-GAAP operating margin improvement is now expected to be 100 to 200 basis points in both the U.S. and International segments. We still expect CPG operating margins to be in the range of 30% to 35%, slightly lower than fiscal 2010, primarily driven by increased investment to support the ongoing VIA rollout. Consolidated operating margin is expected to improve by 50 to 100 basis points over 2010. We now expect fiscal 2011 earnings per share to be $1.41 to $1.47, or 15% to 20% growth on fiscal 2010 non-GAAP earnings per share, excluding the benefit in 2010 from the 53rd week. Similar to last quarter, I will now provide an update to a few items of interest that are embedded in our targets. First, we continue to expect VIA will contribute modestly to fiscal 2011 earnings. Similar to fiscal 2010, we expect this year will be a year of investment in the VIA platform as we build this business and capitalize on the incredible opportunity to take great coffee to people in more parts of their lives around the globe. Next, we now expect to absorb roughly $0.08 to $0.10 in additional commodity costs for fiscal 2011, mostly related to higher coffee prices, although other commodities that we use such as cocoa and sugar are also on the rise. As many of you are aware, C-market prices for Arabica coffees are at levels not seen for more than a decade. While we, along with external experts, continue to believe that the fundamentals of the coffee market indicate a pending oversupply situation, which would put downward pressure on prices in a normal market, speculative investors have continued to drive up prices in the short term. As a result, we now believe we will be forced to lock in portions of our fiscal 2011 supply at higher prices than previously forecasted. This expected impact from higher commodities is reflected in the EPS outlook I just provided. Lastly, there is no change to my commentary from last quarter regarding marketing expenditures. We still expect to spend roughly 2.5% of revenue on marketing, including our share of spending accounted for indirectly through shared profit models such as our ready-to-drink business. In closing, I, along with the leadership team, firmly believe that the best days for Starbucks are ahead, and that we are in the early stages of a new era of growth for the company. With our significant retail footprint, the direct engagement list and trust we have from our customers and our ever expanding CPG presence, we possess a unique business model that no other retail, consumer product or restaurant company can match. We are a leader with unequaled brand equity in the global coffee market, a market that is still highly fragmented and hold enormous opportunities to not only capture additional share of the existing market, but to grow the number of occasions where we could bring great coffee to people in more parts of their lives. As mentioned previously, we will host our biannual investor conference on December 1, at which time we will provide more details on our strategy and the opportunities that are in front of us. With that, now let me turn the call back to the operator to begin the Q&A. Amanda?