Troy Alstead
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Thanks, Howard, and good afternoon, everyone. The exceptional results that we reported today for our fiscal third quarter are a testament to the strength of the Starbucks brand, to the depth of the company's organizational capabilities and to the dedication of our partners around the world. Once again, we set third quarter record for several key metrics, including consolidated revenue, operating income, operating margin and earnings per share. All 3 reporting segments, the U.S, international and CPG, posted strong revenue and operating income growth. Our business has performed exceptionally well this year. And the third quarter continued that trend, despite significant headwinds from commodity costs and still challenging consumer environments in the U.S. and many other markets in which we operate. The foundation is in place to continue to aggressively pursue our aspirations to create a unique, multichannel, multibrand global consumer company. Today, I'll provide additional details on our fiscal third quarter performance, then, I will update you on our expectations for the fourth quarter, as well as our initial outlook for fiscal 2012. Third quarter revenues totaled $2.9 billion, up 12% from $2.6 billion a year ago. The revenue increase was primarily driven by an 8% increase in comparable store sales, attributable to 6% increase in traffic and a 2% increase in average ticket. Foreign exchange rates and higher CPG revenues also contributed to the increase. We reported consolidated operating income of $402 million in the third quarter, a 23% increase compared to third quarter of fiscal 2010 operating income of $328 million, and a 16% increase compared to last year's non-GAAP operating income of $348 million. Consolidated operating margin reached 13.7%, a 120 basis point improvement compared to last year's third quarter on a GAAP basis and 40 basis points on a non-GAAP basis. Increased sales leverage in the absence of restructuring charges primarily drove the improvement, partially offset by higher commodity costs. Earnings per share totaled $0.36 for the third quarter, compared to $0.27 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.29 per share on a non-GAAP basis in last year's fiscal third quarter. We absorbed $0.07 per share in the quarter, equivalent to 280 basis points of operating margin due to higher commodity costs compared to last year. Most of the commodity pressure was related to coffee, though dairy, cocoa and sugar and fuel also contributed. Overall, our global retail business continues to gain momentum, generating broad-based sales and income growth, while we continue to invest in our CPG business and execute on the strategy we've crafted for this important channel. I will now move to the result of our operating segments, which will be compared with last year's non-GAAP results. Total U.S. net revenues for the quarter were $2 billion, a 9% increase over the same period last year. Company-operated store revenues increased 8% to $1.9 billion in the quarter, due to an 8% increase in comparable store sales. The comp increase was composed of a 6% increase in transactions and a 2% increase in average ticket. The increase in average ticket was driven by pricing and food, as our Petites platform and the expansion of our warming program drove incremental attachment. This increase was partially offset by increased discounts to support loyalty and other promotional activities. Of note, the 2-year comp sales growth of 17% is the highest in over 5 years. And this quarter marked the first time that average daily transactions per store eclipsed our 2006 levels, previously the highest year on record. This achievement speaks to the incredible health of our U.S. business and to the improvement in our operations, when you consider that we're servicing this increased volume while holding customer satisfaction at consistently high levels. Operating income for the U.S. segment was $379 million, an increase of 22% compared to the same quarter of last year. Operating margin improved 210 basis points from last year to a third quarter record of 18.8%. The margin improvement was primarily driven by sales leverage, partially offset by higher commodity costs, which negatively impacted U.S. operating margin by roughly 200 basis points. The U.S. segment has been performing extraordinarily well, following our transformation of the business over the past few years. A variety of initiatives have contributed to this performance, including our extremely popular loyalty program, innovative products such as our Petites platform and personalized Frappuccino, and improved supply chain and store operations that are built on Lean principles. The consistently the strong performance of the U.S. business is even more impressive, when considered in light of the still-fragile consumer environment and the inflationary headwinds brought on by a spike in commodity prices. We are encouraged by the broad-based momentum of the business and energized by the opportunities that still exist. New stores are performing well ahead of expectations signaling opportunities for deeper penetration in certain areas of the country. Operationally, we have yet to take full advantage of new technologies such as our new point-of-sale system or our new inventory management system, as we're still coming up the learning curve with these tools. From a marketing perspective, we're in the very early stages of leveraging our unique digital capabilities to engage with our very loyal customer base, with programs such as eGifting and personalized one-to-one marketing having the potential to drive additional traffic into our stores. We are also doing a great deal of work in the areas of store design and store segmentation to understand how our customers use our stores and to optimize each store's particular real estate to enhance the overall experience. While we are at or above peak levels in the U.S. by many measures, these initiatives, as well as others, give us confidence that there are still significant untapped potential to grow revenues and profit in our core business, while we pursue emerging opportunities internationally and in CPG. Moving now to results from our International segment. International total net revenues increased 20% to $659 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2011, an all-time quarterly record. The increase was driven by foreign exchange rates, comparable store sales growth of 5% and new store growth. The comp growth was driven by a 4% increase in traffic and a 1% increase in average ticket. Continuing the trend we've seen throughout the year, China contributed a significant portion to the overall comp growth to this segment. Comps in China accelerated this quarter to a level in the mid-30s from an already impressive trend earlier this year in the mid-20s. Similar to the U.S. and Canada launches last year, this quarter, we launched the personalized frappuccinos across the balance of International store portfolio. Initial response in many markets has been exceptionally strong, particularly in our warm-weather markets where our Frappuccino business tends to be a larger share of the retail product mix. Overall, we saw strong comp growth in most of our emerging company-operated markets, which bodes well for the future, as these markets are key components to our long-term growth ambitions outside of the U.S. International operating income was $80 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2011, a 35% increase compared to last year and a third quarter record for International. Operating margin improved by 140 basis points to 12.2%, primarily driven by sales leverage and lower impairment charges, partially offset by higher commodity costs. Increased commodity costs in the quarter impacted International operating margin by roughly 150 basis points. This is the highest third quarter operating margin on record for the International segment and continues the progression that started last year for the long-term target of mid- to high-teens operating margin outside the U.S. Building on Howard's earlier comments, during the quarter, we announced the acquisition of the remaining equity in the Central, South and West regions of China, where we previously had a minority partner. With this acquisition, we now own 100% of operations in mainland China, with the exception of the Shanghai market where we have a very strong joint venture partnership. This ownership change aligns with our strategy to accelerate growth in China on the way to our stated goal of having more than 1,500 stores by 2015. The recent performance we've seen in this important market, extremely high comp growth, the most profitable stores in any market around the world and strong new store return on investment suggest that we're hitting a point where the brand is getting critical mass and the consumer appetite for Starbucks presents huge potential. In addition to the shift in ownership in mainland China, today we announced we increased our ownership in the Switzerland and Austrian markets to 100%. We will leverage our existing infrastructure to integrate these markets into our Western European company-operated portfolio. Collectively, our International portfolio has never been in better health, and our vision of a diverse mix of profit contributors across the globe is beginning to materialize. We're starting to see a more balanced contribution from the entire portfolio. In addition to China's rapid growth, our licensed markets, many of which are smaller emerging markets, collectively are growing revenues at a faster rate than our company-owned markets as a result of both comp and new store growth. The International team has done an incredible job in setting up the foundation for success outside the U.S. And as we move into the previously announced regional structure in fiscal 2012, I'm confident that we'll continue to build on the current momentum we have in our business outside of the U.S. and capitalize on the tremendous opportunities that exist. I'll now move on to results from the Global Consumer Products Group. Our CPG segment continued its recent momentum in the third quarter, completing the first full quarter under our direct distribution model for packaged coffee and tea. This model now gives us total control over the selling and distribution to retailers of these products, as well as VIA. K-Cups will be added to the lineup beginning this fall, which, along with our coffee authority and brand recognition, will create an unmatched proposition for our trade customers in the coffee category. In the fiscal third quarter, total net revenues for CPG were $218 million, an increase of 25% over last year. Slightly more than half of the increase was related to the packaged coffee and tea business as a result of the transition in-house, as well as pricing. The remainder of the increase was driven by our Foodservice business and the expanded distribution of VIA into grocery. VIA continues to perform well. Sales for the most recent 4-week period were up 41% over last year, and repeat rates continue to trend among the highest in the industry at roughly 38%. CPG operating income for the quarter totaled $66 million, a 20% increase compared to the third quarter of last year. The operating margin of 30.2% was 130 basis points lower than the same quarter last year. Higher coffee costs had a significant impact this quarter, accounting for roughly 1,000 basis points of margin deterioration. This was partially offset by less marketing spend, as we are lapping over last year's launch of VIA into the CPG channel. Overall, we are extremely pleased with the transition of the packaged coffee and tea business and the financial impact has been in line with our expectations. The minor share erosion we experienced early in the quarter, driven by less promotional and display activity as the previously distribution arrangement ended, has already given way to solid recovery. Packaged coffee sales have recorded double-digit growth over the recent 4-week period versus last year, despite some recent volume weakness in the overall category. In the last several months, we've had a dedicated focus on the transition, ensuring that it was seamless to our trade customers. With this work now behind us, anticipation is building within the trade around what we will now be able to bring to the coffee aisle. With the planned launch of K-Cups in the fall adding to an already strong packaged coffee lineup and an ongoing build-out of the VIA platform, Starbucks has an unmatched coffee portfolio in CPG. Our ambitions outside our retail store channel are bold and will take time to fully capitalize on the opportunity. But I'm confident that the assets we own and the teams we now have in place provide the foundation to achieve those goals. Before I move on to our outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2011 and a first look at fiscal 2012, I want to take a moment to recognize Starbucks' supply chain organization. This group recently received a remarkable, well-deserved achievement, ranking for the first time in the top 25 of global supply chains as rated by Gartner AMR, a well-known research firm in this field. We're very proud of this achievement, given the significant transformation that team has gone through over the past few years, first, retooling that organization to drive improved efficiency and accuracy, and more recently, bolstering its infrastructure and talent to support our blueprint for growth. This ranking recognizes the tremendous progress we have made, noting Starbucks' focus on improving overall supply chain performance, differentiating ourselves from our peers on accelerated commercialization of new products, our long-term programs to grow and acquire supply chain talent, and the approach and speed in which the supply chain organization has improved its performance. Congratulations to Peter Gibbons and his team on this well-deserved recognition. We entered fiscal 2011 with strong momentum throughout our business and a cautious optimism that those trends would continue, despite the uncertain economy and the gathering headwinds from commodities. As the year progressed, our business performed beyond our expectations, as the focused efforts of our partners helped drive additional traffic into our stores. Now with 3 quarters of the fiscal year behind us, I would like to provide you with an updated outlook on how we expect the year to close out. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter is expected to be in the range of $0.35 to $0.36 and EPS for the full year 2011 is now expected to be in the range of $1.50 to $1.51, modestly above the previously communicated 15% to 20% growth over 2010 non-GAAP earnings per share, excluding the benefit in 2010 from the 53rd week. In addition to the earnings outlook, we now expect approximately 10% revenue growth on a comparable 52-week basis driven by comp growth at the high end of our target range of 3% to 7%. Excluding the impact from the Borders store closures, we now plan to add approximately 600 net new stores globally, with roughly 100 in the U.S. and approximately 500 in international markets. The majority of the new additions in both segments are expected to be licensed stores. Through the end of the quarter, 228 Seattle's Best Coffee stores closed as a result of the Borders bankruptcy. The 247 stores that remained are expected to be closed this week. As previously communicated, we took charges related to the Borders portfolio in the first and second quarters, and we do not have any meaningful exposure remaining. We still expect to absorb approximately $0.22 in additional commodity costs compared to fiscal 2010, primarily driven by coffee. Roughly $0.08 of this amount is expected to be absorbed in the fourth quarter. Full year operating margins for both the U.S. and International segments are now expected to finish near the high end of the previously communicated 150 to 200 basis point improvement compared to last year's non-GAAP results. Operating margins of the CPG segment are also now expected to finish near the high end of the previously communicated range of 25% to 30%. The expected results, on a consolidated basis after the impact from the Borders charges, remains at 50 to 100 basis point improvement compared to last year's non-GAAP operating margin. I will now provide you with a high-level initial look at several fiscal 2012 targets. These targets are presented under the current segment reporting structure, not yet reflecting the reorganization announced recently. I plan to provide the fiscal 2012 targets under the new segment reporting structure during the November year-end conference call. We expect approximately 10% revenue growth for the year, consistent with the rate of growth this year and driven by mid-single digit comp growth, approximately 800 net new stores and strong growth in the CPG business. Of the approximately 800 net new stores we expect to add, roughly 200 are expected to be in the U.S. and roughly 600 in International. Approximately half of the new additions in the U.S. will be licensed stores. Internationally, roughly 2/3 of new additions will be licensed, consistent with our current mix outside the U.S. We expect China to account for approximately 1/4 of the International new store additions. We expect capital expenditures to be approximately $700 million for fiscal 2012, reflecting the increase in new stores planned. Full year operating margin improvement is expected to be 50 to 100 basis points on a consolidated level, with improvement expected in U.S. and International retail operations, offset by moderately lower volumes -- margins, excuse me, in the CPG business. Sales leverage and operational efficiencies will continue to drive the margin improvement in U.S. and International, offsetting pressure from commodities. Similar to this year, we expect CPG margins to be impacted more significantly by commodity increases, since coffee is a larger share of the overall cost structure for this business. Additionally, we'll continue to invest for future growth in CPG as we launch K-Cups and expand the VIA platform. As a result, we expect CPG operating margin near 25% in fiscal 2012. We expect fiscal 2012 earnings per share growth to be in the range of 15% to 20% consistent with our long-term outlook range. We expect pressure from commodity costs to continue into the next year. As we had anticipated, in recent weeks, coffee prices have retreated significantly from a high of more than $3 per pound at just a couple of months ago, to levels now near $2.40 per pound. As prices have been falling, we continued locking up our needs for fiscal '12, and now have virtually the full year price protected. At these contracted levels, we expect the elevated coffee cost to negatively impact earnings by approximately $0.21 per share in fiscal '12 compared to fiscal '11. That additional cost is already fully reflected in our 15% to 20% EPS growth target for next year. Global demand for coffee continues to grow, which underscores the huge opportunity for Starbucks' expansion in the years ahead. And while that demand growth undoubtedly has pressured coffee commodity costs from the levels of 1 year or 2 ago, the recent significant decline supports the analysis we have available to us, that the spike to $3 was fueled much more by speculation. We now have very good visibility into our key input costs for the coming year and have continued great confidence in our ability to meet our growth targets. Lastly, I'd like to highlight our expectations for the highly anticipated launch of Starbucks K-Cups. K-Cups are expected to be available this fall in the U.S. CPG channel in time for the important holiday period. Based on the extraordinarily strong early response and the anticipated demand from our trade customers, we expect to be able to ramp up the distribution, awareness and adoption relatively quickly for new product introduction. We expect K-Cups to add approximately $0.03 to $0.05 in incremental earnings per share in fiscal 2012, already included in the 15% to 20% EPS growth target reflecting the significant investment plan to support the CPG launch. Due to the manufacturing capacity that is needed to support the CPG demand, we now expect to launch K-Cups in our U.S. retail stores to occur very late in 2012. Therefore, we do not expect any financial benefit in fiscal '12 from the retail launch. Our third quarter results further demonstrate the unique strength of the Starbucks brand, our retail store portfolio and our evolving multichannel growth model. Despite stiff headwinds in the form of higher commodity costs and a fragile consumer environment, we were able to achieve record results while continuing to invest for the future. We are still in the very early stages of our pursuit to build a one-of-a-kind company that reaches consumers throughout the world in multiple channels and formats, while maintaining a deep connection to our customers. As we continue to see more proof points, we're increasingly confident that this vision will begin to play out in the coming quarters and years. Our recently announced organizational changes will allow us to more clearly focus on the unique complexities inherent in each region around the globe, as we expand our retail presence while driving growth in our emerging businesses. The strategies to pursue the tremendous global opportunities are clearly defined. Our management team is experienced and energized, and we're backed by strong balance sheet and healthy cash flow. We have an extremely solid foundation in place to pursue ambitious profitable growth in fiscal 2012 and beyond. With that, now let me turn the call back over to the operator to begin Q&A. Christian?