Troy Alstead
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thanks, Howard. And good afternoon, everyone. Today we reported earnings that continue to reinforce the strength and resiliency of our business model, the global power of our brand and the talent and dedication of our partners. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. international and CPG business segments all reported record Q4 revenues. In addition, on a consolidated basis, records were also achieved for revenue, operating income, operating margin and earnings per share. This was all accomplished despite continued pressure from macroeconomic headwinds and significantly high commodity cost. Our performance reflects the strong connection that exists between Starbucks and the communities and customers we serve and highlights the fact that the Starbucks value proposition continues to resonate deeply with customers all around the world. Today, I will provide additional details on our fourth quarter and full year performance, then I'll provide an update to our outlook for 2012. Fourth quarter consolidated net revenues were $3.0 billion, the highest of any quarter in our history and up 7% from $2.8 billion a year ago. Excluding the 53rd week in 2010, revenue growth for the quarter was 15%. Global comparable store sales continue to accelerate, increasing 9% attributable to a 6% increase in traffic and a 3% increase in average ticket. Two year same-store sales growth was 17% globally, further highlighting the momentum we're building around the world. Higher CPG revenues also contributed to the increase. Consolidated operating income of $448 million in the fourth quarter increased by 12% over the $399 million reported in last year's fiscal fourth quarter, excluding the nonroutine gain in fiscal 2011, and the impact of restructuring and the extra week in fiscal 2010, we saw a 20% increase in non-GAAP operating income compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Consolidated operating margin finished the quarter at 14.8%, a 70 basis-point improvement over last year's fourth quarter on a GAAP basis. This improvement was primarily due to increased sales leverage and again on the sale of office buildings here in Seattle, partially offset by higher commodity cost and the impact of the extra week fiscal 2010. On a non-GAAP basis, operating margins increased 60 basis points to 13.8% from 13.2%, which excludes the nonroutine gain in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 and the impact of restructuring and the extra week in Q4 of fiscal 2010. The increase in commodity costs, largely coffee, negatively impacted operating margin in the quarter by approximately 290 basis points. Earnings per share was $0.47 for the fourth quarter, an increase of 27% over $0.37 in the prior year period. This included approximately $0.10 attributable to nonroutine gains resulting from the acquisition of the remaining equity in our Switzerland and Austria markets and the sale of office buildings here in Seattle. Excluding the nonroutine gains in Q4 of fiscal 2011, and the impact of restructuring and the extra week in Q4 of fiscal 2010, EPS increased 16% to a record $0.37 per share. We absorbed approximately $0.075 per share in the fourth quarter due to higher commodity costs. Today we are announcing a 31% increase to our quarterly cash dividend to $0.17 per share from $0.13 per share and the authorization of an additional 20 million shares of our share repurchase program, bringing our total number of shares available for repurchase to just over 24 million. These 2 actions reaffirm our confidence in the strength of the business and our commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders. I will now move to the results of our operating segments, which will be compared with last year's non-GAAP results that exclude the impact of restructuring and the extra week in Q4 of fiscal 2010. Please note that this will be the last quarter we report in the 3 segment structure. As we have transitioned to our new organizational model as of October 3. We will provide financial restatements including 3 years of historical data under the new segment structure along with our first quarter fiscal 2012 earnings report. Total U.S. net revenues for the quarter were $2.0 billion an 11% increase over the same period last year. Both company-operated and licensed stores saw impressive gains in Q4 with a company-operated growth driven by a 10% increase in comparable store sales. The comp increase was comprised of a healthy 7% increase in traffic and a 3% increase in average ticket. 2-year comps were 18% for the quarter, our highest mark in almost 6 years. Our same-store sales growth in Q4 was especially meaningful given the continued weakness in the U.S. economy and further validates that our commitment to a premium experience is resonating with our customers. Importantly, we saw strong transaction growth among all day parts in Q4 with the hours between 11:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. showing the highest percentage increase. This demonstrates the success we're seeing with some of our newer food offerings and indicates to us that Starbucks is increasingly recognized the our customers as an excellent option for a healthier lunch. Our peak morning hours also saw an impressive lift which confirms to us that we still have room for transaction growth even during our busiest time. The 3% increase in average ticket was driven by pricing and food as our petites platform and the expansion of our warming program drove incremental attachment. Operating income for the U.S. segment was $374 million, an increase of 26% compared to the same quarter last year. Operating margin expanded 210 basis points to 18.4% from 16.3%, primarily due to increased sales leverage, partially offset by higher commodity costs, which added approximately 210 basis points of cost pressure. We continue to be pleased with the growth and results the U.S. business is delivering and are excited about what lies ahead. Many opportunities still exist to efficiency and we are aggressively taking them on. The improvement in our work routines, efficiencies in our drive-through lanes and continued waste reduction efforts are just a few examples. We're also leveraging technology to improve our operations and full optimization of our new point-of-sale system, inventory management system and rollout of our new automated labor scheduling tool will help us deliver on our significant growth targets going forward. With that, I will now move to the results from our International segment. International total net revenues increased 25% to $718 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011, another Q4 record. Favorable foreign currency translation contributed roughly 1/3 of the growth with comparable store sales growth of 6% and the consolidation of the Switzerland and Austria markets also contributing. The comp growth was driven by increased transactions particularly in China and Asia Pacific where comps in mainland China were once again in the mid-30s. A new contributor of revenue growth in those markets was the rollout of our loyalty program, which was implemented in South Korea in Q4 with China and Singapore added earlier in fiscal 2011. Personalized Frappuccino continued its success and in China strong customer demand for our popular seasonal Mooncakes again exceeded expectations. Somewhat offsetting the same-store sales strength in Asia was softness in Europe, where the measurable decline in consumer confidence negatively impacted summer sales. Initiatives to support via service and further innovation combined with the Summer Olympics in London give us optimism that 2012 comps in Europe will improve. International operating income reached $93 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011, a 21% increase. Operating margin contracted by 40 basis points to 13.0% from 13.4%. This was due primarily to higher coffee costs, partially offset by sales leverage. Commodities impact in Q4 to International was approximately 120 basis points. China continues to perform phenomenally well for us and, as Howard mentioned earlier, we recently opened our 500th store on the mainland. Margins in China continue to be strong despite inflationary pressure and we believe our sales growth and focus on efficiencies will offset additional inflation in the near term. We added nearly 200 units in international markets in Q4 with many of those in Asia with combined efforts of our development and operations teams are leading solid returns on our investment. In July we announced that we acquired full ownership of our retail operations in Switzerland and Austria further leveraging our existing EMEA company-operated store infrastructure. The accounting gain resulting from the transaction approximately,, $55 million, was recorded in Q4 fiscal '11 and is reported within Interest Income and Other. This transaction also had a favorable impact on our tax rate of 90 basis points for the full year and 330 basis points in Q4. The exceptional sustained performance of our company operated portfolio, combined with the strength we're seeing in our license markets and the continued success of our new store openings are enabling our international retail portfolio to contribute more meaningfully to consolidated results. The recently announced organizational changes, which have energize our global team and will improve accountability and decision-making reinforce our expedition that our international business will one day rival our domestic one. Further diversifying our portfolio and an important part of our growth outlook is our Global Consumer Products Group, which I'll now take a few moments to review. The conclusion of Q4 marks more than 6 months since we transitioned our packaged coffee business in-house to a direct distribution model. This model, used for our packaged coffee and tea as well as VIA Ready Brew throughout the U.S., food, drug, mass and club channels, has allowed us to take direct control of our relationship with the trade which, along with our coffee authority and brand recognition, creates an unmatched proposition in the coffee category within the grocery channel. It has also laid the foundation for us to execute the highly anticipated introduction of Starbucks K-Cups in the CPG channels, which began earlier this week. In the fiscal fourth quarter, total net revenues for CPG were $242 million, an increase of 31% over last year with approximately half of the growth attributable to the transition of the packaged coffee and tea business in-house. In addition to our growing packaged coffee and tea business, the availability of VIA products continues to expand. Full year systemwide sales of VIA across all business channels reached $250 million in fiscal '11 and we reached 73% ACV in the U.S. CPG channel as of the end of the fourth quarter. For the most recent 4-week period, VIA sales in the U.S. CPG channels were up more than 75% over last year, demonstrating the continuing momentum of this platform as we approach 18 months since its initial introduction in the CPG channel. Outside the U.S., we expanded VIA distribution to 6 additional countries in the China and the Asia Pacific region now reaching more than 70,000 points of distribution on a global basis. The overall premium single cup category continues to grow at a rapid pace as more and more coffee consumers adopt various formats within the category. In response, retailers recognize the consumer demand and significant growth potential available and continue to dedicate more shelf space down the grocery aisle in support of this growth. CPG operating income for the quarter totaled $76 million, a 4% increase on a 13-week basis compared to the fourth quarter of last year. The operating margin of 31.4% was 800 basis points lower than the same quarter last year. Similar to the third quarter, higher coffee cost had a significant impact in the fourth quarter accounting for roughly 1,000 basis points of margin deterioration. As we now enter the next phase of our CPG growth plan with the introduction of Starbucks K-Cups, we remain focused on delivering premium coffee products to customers, while building strong relationships within the trade for future profitable growth. We are pleased with the results we have seen so far and believe that we are solidly on track with the aggressive growth objectives we've established for this segment. I will now recap our full year fiscal 2011 performance and a few key metrics. Excluding the nonroutine gains in Q4 of fiscal 2011 and the impact of restructuring and the extra week of fiscal 2010, EPS increased 24% to record $1.52 from $1.23 per share. Higher commodity costs, largely coffee, weighed down EPS in fiscal 2011 by approximately $0.20. Global consolidated net revenues reached a record $11.7 billion in fiscal 2011 an 11% increase on a comparative 52-week basis. The increase was mostly due to an 8% increase in global comparable store sales with CPG growth also contributing. Our 8% global comps were driven by a 6% lift in traffic and a 2% increase in average ticket. Same-store sales in the U.S. were 8% for the fiscal year and were 5% for the year in international. Our comp momentum remains broad-based and continued focus on the excellence of the customer experience in our stores continued expansion of the frequency driving the rewards program and robust innovation we're making both in products, like petite, and in technology, like mobile payment, are laying the foundation for future growth. By driving efficiencies and heavily managing spend, we are able to flow the sales increases through to the bottom line as our fiscal 2011 consolidated operating income of $1.7 billion and operating margin of 14.8% were both records. Excluding the nonroutine gain in fiscal '11 and the impact of restructuring in the extra week in fiscal '10 operating margin expanded 100 basis points to a record 14.5%. This includes a negative 220 basis-point impact from higher commodity costs. Global store count for fiscal 2011 grew by a net 145, which is a bit misleading due to the 475 Seattle's Best Coffee locations that were closed as a result of the Borders bankruptcy. Excluding these, net unit growth was 620 new stores comprised of 131 in the U.S. and 489 new stores in the international markets. We are enthusiastic about the future contribution this age class will bring as the U.S. company-operated openings are setting records for verse your sales and cash flow. Internationally, our fiscal year 2011 age class is also exceeding expectations, giving us great momentum to further accelerate unit growth in fiscal 2012 and beyond. We are extremely proud of the record results we were able to deliver in fiscal 2011 despite external pressures coming from many different fronts. In the top line, we not only saw significant growth over 2010, but then improvement strengthened throughout the year, with fourth quarter global same-store sales growing at a rate not seen since 2006. During 2011 we reached 4,000 licensed stores in the U.S. and opened our 900th store in Japan. We launched personalized Frappuccino across the globe, expanded our popular loyalty program, became a leader in mobile payment, expanded VIA internationally, took back our packaged coffee business, and managed through the $0.20 EPS impact of commodities and the $0.02 impact of the Borders bankruptcy. Our ability to be up in front of our competition to leverage our growth to deliver new financial accretive offering continue to confirm our belief that many opportunities remain throughout our business with significant profitable growth potential. I will now give you an update to the initial fiscal 2012 outlook that was provided on last quarter's call. We continue to target revenue growth of approximately 10% for the year, driven by mid-single-digit comp growth and continued momentum of our CPG business. While we are optimistic about what the future holds for Starbucks, we also recognize that consumer environment is still fragile as our customers continue to face sustained economic pressure. We still expect full year consolidated operating margin to improve by 50 to 100 basis points over fiscal 2011 non-GAAP results. We are targeting earnings per share in the range of $1.75 to $1.82, consistent with our long-term growth target based on fiscal '11 EPS of $1.52, excluding the nonroutine gains. There are a few items embedded within this target that I would like to call out. First, we continue to expect to absorb approximately $0.21 in additional commodity cost in fiscal 2012 mostly related to higher coffee prices. As you know, we took the opportunity several months ago to lock in our expected requirements for fiscal 2012. The timing of the coffee cost pressures will be heavily weighted toward the first half of the year, with $0.18 of the full year of $0.21 impacting the first 6 months. As a result of that disproportionate timing of elevated coffee costs, EPS growth is expected to be approximately 5% in the first half of fiscal '12 and is expected to be approximately 25% in the second half of the year. Absent this commodity pressure we would expect strong earnings growth consistently throughout the year. Further, we have taken advantage of the recent declines in the "C" price to begin locking in our needs for fiscal 2013 and currently have 4 months of our 2013 requirements locked in at costs favorable to 2012. Do not be misled by the expected earnings growth in the first half of 2012. It is completely a function of the timing of coffee costs flowing through the P&L compared to the previous year. The coffee cost comparison eased significantly in the second half of 2012 when we expect to deliver 25% EPS growth and then enter 2013 with extremely strong earnings momentum. Also embedded in our fiscal '12 outlook is the impact of our launch this week of take K-Cups in CPG channels. We continue to believe this addition to our portfolio will contribute $0.03 to $0.05 of incremental earnings in the year net of marketing and startup costs. As we have previously stated we expect sales levels for K-Cups will be limited in fiscal '12 by production capacity constraints. However, as we gain additional supply next year, we expect meaningful upside to earnings in fiscal '13 and beyond. We are very pleased with retailers' response to sponsor Starbucks as the only super premium coffee on the Keurig K-Cup platform and we're excited at the market opportunity ahead. We expect global marketing spend near 3.5% of revenues in fiscal '12, an increase over 2011 that includes full year impact of the transition of our Packaged Coffee business in-house and the rollout of K-Cup. I will now give you a look at our initial segment target for 2012 based on the new organizational and reporting segment structure. In the Americas, which includes the U.S., Canada and Latin America, operating margin is expected to improve slightly over the current rate of approximately 20%. The Americas represent roughly 75% of the company's revenue. We also expect modest margin improvement in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region, which currently has a margin in the mid-single digits. EMEA represents approximately 10% of Starbucks revenues. The China and Asia Pacific region currently reflecting 5% of the revenue mix of the company is expected to continue to produce strong operating margin near the 30% level. Finally, we expect that Global Consumer Products Group representing approximately 10% of revenues will deliver operating margin near 25%, driven lower than historical levels due to the impact of higher coffee costs, investments in the launch of K-Cups and the ongoing buildout of the VIA platform. Our projections for global store growth remain unchanged at 800 net new stores. Based on our new structure about 400 of these will be in our Americas region, with licensed stores comprising approximately 1/2 of the new additions. Approximately 300 will be in our China and Asia Pacific region with licensed stores comprising approximately 2/3 of the new stores. Approximately 1/2 of the China and Asia Pacific openings will be in China. In the EMEA, we are planning on approximately 100 net new openings with licensed stores making up roughly 2/3 of the new stores. Capital expenditures are now expected to be the range of approximately $800 million to $900 million in fiscal year 2012. This is an increase to our initial target provided last quarter, reflecting additional investments in store renovations globally as well as the addition of manufacturing capacity to support our growing business. We expect to renovate a record number of stores in fiscal 2012 as we continue to prioritize our in-store experience. Renovations not only add to the aesthetic experience, they also allow us to reconfigure the store to improve efficiencies in our operations. We have seen solid returns on our renovation spend over the past few years and continue to view this as another key driver to the future success of our retail operations. And finally, the tax rate in fiscal 2012 is expected to be approximately 33%, modestly higher than in the previous year. In closing, our fourth quarter and full year results are a testament to the talent and dedication of our partners, the strength of our business model and the power of our brand. We are delivering solid results across the globe and will continue to grow to pursue the enormous opportunity generated by the strategic investments we've made over the past few years. Our U.S. business continues to be exceptionally strong with more growth to come. Internationally, we have laid the foundation for healthy profitable growth and are on the way towards operating margins in the targeted mid- to upper teens. And we're accelerating our expansion of CPG, where growth will get another boost with the launch of K-Cups this week. We'll continue to invest capital in long-term profitable growth opportunities and will prudently return excess cash to shareholders. All this will improve the diversification of our portfolio and will provide customers access through more formats and in more geographies to the super premium Starbucks coffee experience. With that I'd like to turn the call back to Howard for some closing comments. Howard?