Troy Alstead
Analyst · Sanford Bernstein
Thanks, Cliff. The next thing I will discuss is Europe, Middle East and Africa, which delivered revenue growth of 17% in the first quarter. As I commented on a recent conference call outlining the changes to our segment reporting, we're targeting this region as a big opportunity, both on the top line and throughout the P&L. We are underperforming against our expectations in this critical part of the world, and we have a solid plan in place to turn this region around. The first step in that plan was to put an experienced talented leadership team in place, which is what we did by appointing Michelle Glass, a 15-year Starbucks partner, to be president of this region. Michelle's played an integral role in the development and execution of Starbucks' transformation agenda, which was the strategic basis of our U.S. business turnaround that began in 2008. With the right leadership in place, we're going to focus on what matters most, our coffee, our partners and the store experience. On all these fronts, we'll do what we need to in order to turn things around. The second and third quarters will include foundational investment that will be reflected in lower margins in those periods, but as we come out of these implementation costs, we're targeting margin improvement to mid-single digits in fiscal 2012, declining over time to the midteens. Same-store sales growth in EMEA in the first quarter was 2%, with increased transactions of 2% and a higher average ticket of 1%, despite a worsening consumer outlook and high unemployment in many markets across Europe. In the U.K., we recorded our 10th consecutive quarter of positive comps, boosted this quarter by a highly successful holiday campaign. The overall revenue growth of 17% for the EMEA region was driven primarily by the consolidation of the Switzerland and Austria markets, with a 2% comp and its licensed store revenue growth of 18% also contributing. EMEA margin contracted 320 basis points in the first quarter, due largely to transitionary costs of bringing in-house the distribution of fresh food and dairy in the U.K. This is an important change that will improve the freshness and delivery efficiency of products to our stores. Higher commodity costs have also added 60 basis points of unfavorability. In China and Asia-Pacific or CAP, the strong momentum that built throughout 2011 continued in the first quarter of fiscal 2012. Net revenues increased by 38%, driven largely by rapid new store growth, along the same-store sales growth of 20%. The strong comps were comprised of a 15% increase in transactions and a 5% increase in average ticket. All 4 of our company-owned markets in CAP posted double-digit comps, with China leading the way at 28%. We have now recorded greater than 20% comps for 6 consecutive quarters in China. Consistent with results across our global store base, the holiday platform produced very solid results as well. Additionally, we're gaining traction on our loyalty program, with nearly 250,000 My Starbucks Rewards members already signed up in China. Strong holiday merchandise sales contributed to the higher average ticket. Operating income in CAP was also strong, increasing 26% to $58 million in the first quarter. Operating margin contracted 350 basis points to a still outstanding 34.6%, resulting from higher performance-based compensation, higher costs necessary to fuel our expansion in this region, as well as 200 basis points related to higher commodity costs. While store operating expenses and costs increased, we saw solid leverage on occupancy and depreciation from the additional sales. I want to provide a bit of additional texture on Japan in particular, as it is important for its contribution to this region to be fully understood. At 950 stores, Japan makes up 1/3 of the region store count, and makes up approximately 40% of CAP operating income. It only comprises about 13% of revenue, however, due to the ownership structure. Japan is a joint venture market for us, with Starbucks owning 40%, our partner, SAZABY, owning 40% and 20% being publicly held. The revenue that is recognized on CAP's P&L for Japan, includes royalties on sales in our Japan stores and sales of coffee, tea and other strategic products sold to the joint venture. Our stake of the equity, essentially 40% of the market after-tax profit, which recorded in the income from equity investee's line of the CAP P&L. From a performance standpoint, Japan continues to show improvement in revenue, operating income and operating margins. It was just 10 months ago that Japan was faced with a devastating earthquake and tsunami. We are extremely proud of the way that our Japan partners have responded, as that market has recovered faster than expected, and did so, while being a significant contributor to relief efforts around the country. With a very strong brand, powerful store economics and significant growth opportunities, Japan will continue to be a strong contributor to the region's success in the coming years. Given the consistency of strong results in China/Asia-Pacific, we're going to continue to accelerate growth in the region. We opened 121 net new stores in Q1, the highest of our 3 retail regions. The growth came from 48 net new stores in mainland China, where we continue to see extremely strong returns that are surpassing our initial projections. Sales to investment ratio in mainland China is more than 2.5:1, and first-year, cash-on-cash returns are the highest in our system. Better store growth contributors in CAP in Q1 included South Korea, where we opened 24 net new stores and Japan with 15 net new stores. Now, I'd like to give you an update on our outlook for the remainder of our fiscal year. We continue to target revenue growth of approximately 10% for the year, driven by mid-single digit comp growth and continued momentum of our CPG business. We expect full year consolidated operating margin to improve by 50 to 100 basis points over fiscal 2011 non-GAAP results. Given the strong performance in the first quarter, we have raised our expectations for earnings per share to the range of $1.78 to $1.82, representing 17% to 20% growth over fiscal '11 EPS of $1.52, excluding the non-routine gains. The expected impact due to higher commodity costs in FY '12 remained virtually unchanged from what I've told you in November, approximately $230 million. We continue to expect a greater impact from commodities on the first half of the year, easing a bit during the second half. With that expected impact of commodities, we're targeting 10% earnings growth in the first half of the year, with 25% growth in the second half. We've taken advantage of the recent declines in the seed price to lock in more of our coffee needs for fiscal 2013, and now has 6 months of our fiscal 2013 requirements secured at costs markedly favorable to 2012. The specific year-over-year cost improvement is still too early to quantify, as we still have half of 2013 open. I will provide additional commentary in coming quarters as we lock in more of our coffee needs. As you heard Jeff discuss during his remarks, we continue to be excited about the opportunity ahead of us with regard to K-Cups. Given our current visibility into production capacity, we're targeting the high end of the $0.03 to $0.05 incremental per share range that was provided on our last call, as the FY '12 contribution from K-Cups. On a segment basis, our store count projections remain unchanged for fiscal 2012 at 800 net new stores. Operating margin for our Americas business is still expected to improve slightly over FY '11's 20%. EMEA is expected to show modest improvement over its FY '11 margin. CAP margin guidance remains at nearly 30%, and CPG margin also remains unchanged from our previous target of near 25%, lower than FY '11, largely due to the impact of higher coffee costs. We continue to expect marketing expense near 3.5% of revenue for the full year, a meaningful increase over a year ago. That marketing expense will be more pronounced in Q2 due to the rollout of Blonde Roast. Our first quarter was tremendous in nearly every measure, thanks to the continued focus and hard work of our dedicated partners. We have proven a unique ability to be immediately relevant in the marketplace, as demonstrated by our impressive launch of K-Cups in November. We've proven the ability to be nimble and flexible. The multichannel launch of Starbucks Blonde Roast is an example there. We've proven an ability to be focused and disciplined as our record productivity and transaction levels in the U.S. demonstrate, despite a still challenging economic backdrop. We've proven an ability to be innovative with the global launch of our Petite platform and additional countries launch in the frequency-driving My Starbucks Rewards loyalty program, including Canada and the U.K. just recently. And importantly, we continue to drive shareholder value in all the various ways I've described. As Howard, Jeff and Cliff mentioned before me, we're not slowing down one bit in 2012. With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to the operator for Q&A. David?