Sean O'Connor
Analyst · Jefferies LLC
Okay. So I guess you sort of have to pass that question out into two things. I mean, in terms of revenue capture, we obviously were comparing against a phenomenal quarter a year ago. So revenue capture was down versus that. I would say, excluding that, if you look maybe over the last three quarters, I would say there are signs generally whether you look at the VIX or whether you look at volatility in sort of metals markets and elsewhere, that volatility has declined generally over the last two, three quarters. I think it's probably still somewhat elevated in general terms versus, say, 2019, but it's certainly nowhere near where it was a year ago. So it seems to be flattening up. Now we could be entering -- volatility can change fast, right? I mean, as we've seen with sort of the bank drama. And then what's going on with all the Californian banks, I'd like to know. But anyway, I think we sort of may be flattening out there, and we could see periods of higher volatility. So that's on the volatility side. On the volume side, we've certainly seen continued strong volumes. I think we might, depending on the kind of economic situation, we think may transpire. We may also see that start to moderate slightly. I mean if we go into a highly credit constrained environment and a recession, I think you probably got to say volumes aren't going to continue to increase at the same pace and all things being equal, would probably moderate a little bit. So that's my anticipation. I would say, though, the other factor to take into account is just the competitive environment. I think we're making market share gains, right? So I think banks are struggling. I think they're starting to again consider whether they should be in some of these businesses. We continue to see us onboarding clients from banks. So even in a more moderated environment, we may still see some decent growth through market share gains. So I think it's a pretty good environment for us. And obviously, you've got interest rates at a high level. So I think all in all, this is a pretty good environment for us over the next kind of three to six quarters. It obviously depends on sort of the overall economic conditions and how dire those get, absent something really bad, I think it's going to be a decent run for us here. I mean taking all those factors into account.