Patrick O'Leary
Analyst · Nomura
Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin this morning with earnings per share. As Chris mentioned, EPS was up 31%, but the composition of our Q1 earnings vary quite a bit from last year. Segment income growth in our Flow and Test and Measurement segments increased EPS $0.26 year-over-year. This more than offset an $0.18 segment income decline in our Thermal and Industrial segments. This decline primarily related to our power businesses, specifically power transformers and dry cooling systems. In our Industrial segment, we recorded an $0.08 gain for an insurance recovery related to a product liability matter. We recorded a charge to operations for this matter in our prior year period. Please note that this benefit was anticipated in our Q1 EPS guidance. Currency and a lower effective tax rate were other notable positive EPS drivers year-over-year. Stock compensation was the most significant headwind. As compared to Q1 2010, the increase in stock compensation expense reduced earnings per share by $0.09, and this was a $0.04 headwind versus our guidance. On a consolidated basis, we reported $1.2 billion of revenue for the quarter, up 11% from the prior year. This was about $30 million better than we had expected, primarily due to favorable currency rates. Organic revenue grew 6%. Acquisitions contributed about $30 million of revenue or 3% growth and currency was a 2% benefit in the quarter. Segment income was better than expected at $115 million, 8% above our midpoint estimates and also 8% better than the prior year. Q1 segment margins were 9.5%, down 30 points from last year but mostly, better than we had expected. The lower margin related primarily to lower pricing on transformer shipments and reduced revenue from dry cooling systems. This offset steady margin improvement in our Test and Measurement and Flow segments. Looking at the results by segment, beginning with Flow. Flow reported $456 million of revenue in Q1. That's up 29% from last year. Organic revenue increased 18%, driven by strong sales growth into the food and beverage and power and energy markets. Food and beverage is the largest market for our Flow segment and we continue to see steady improvement in our food and beverage order trends. Revenue for the nuclear squib valves was a key driver of the growth in power and energy sales, our sales of components into the oil and gas, and power generation markets also increased. And we also saw steady growth in industrial markets driven by aftermarket and replacement sales. From a regional perspective, sales into emerging markets grew by 35%. Sales into Europe also increased 35% and sales for North America grew 24%. The 2010 acquisitions increased revenue by 8% and currency with a 3% benefit. Segment income increased 37% to $56 million. This was nearly 1/2 of the consolidated segment income for the whole company. Margins increased 70 points to 12.4%. Flow margins improved 100 points when you exclude the 30 points of acquisition dilution. Leverage on the organic growth and a favorable sales mix drove the margin improvement. Flow's backlog was $848 million at the end of Q1. That's up 7% sequentially and 37% over last year. This is a record level of backlog for the Flow segment. In Q1, we saw strong replacement demand for food and beverage components. We are encouraged with the quoting activity for new capital investment. However, system orders have not yet fully recovered. We saw an increase in demand for oil and gas processing equipment, which was positively impacted by higher oil prices. Industrial market demand was steady, with notable order improvement in our marine and mining markets. We are very encouraged by the development of our Flow backlog and our visibility to revenue for the remainder of 2011 is very good for this point in the year. Moving on to the Thermal segment. Q1 revenue was $325 million. That's down 8% year-on-year. Organic revenue declined 10% and currency with a 2% benefit. As you may recall, orders for our power generation technology was soft in the first half of 2010. We are realizing the impact of that weakness in the reported revenues for the first half of this year. Revenue across most of our power product lines decreased organically in Q1. As previously mentioned, we had a sharp decline in dry cooling revenue in China. This was also the primary driver of the reduced profitability. Segment income was $21 million in the quarter, down 33% and margins was 6.5%. We expect the financial results of this segment to improve sequentially this year and are targeting a return to organic growth in the second half. As a reminder, the quarterly results for this segment, including the backlog development, can be volatile due to the large project nature of the business. This quarter, however, Thermal's backlog was stable sequentially at $1.6 billion. This includes a modest benefit from currency. Thermal's book-to-bill in Q1, although it's just under 1x as compared to 0.5x last year, a significant improvement. In line with our expectations and broadly speaking, demand increased modestly across U.S. and European utility customers in the early part of the year versus what we experienced in 2010. The majority of new orders were less than $10 million and demand was focused primarily on evaporative cooling systems and heat exchangers. We also received 4 replacement orders in Europe at older power plants that are more than $10 million each. Although the timing of order placement is difficult to predict for this segment, we are encouraged with the quote and bid activity we are seeing globally for large-scale power projects, particularly in emerging markets. Looking at the first quarter results for Test and Measurement, our revenue was up 22% to $249 million. Currency was a modest benefit year-over-year. The majority of the growth was organic. Organic revenue grew 20%. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of strong double-digit organic growth. It was driven primarily by increased sales to OEMs and their dealers. We also had modest growth in the aftermarket for vehicle service. Revenue grew by double digits in all major geographic regions. Sales into India and Asia Pacific increased by more than 20%. Segment income increased 46% to $20 million, and margins improved 130 points year-over-year to 7.9%. The margin improvement was due primarily to leverage on the organic growth. We completed the acquisition of Teradyne's Diagnostics Solutions business in Q1. We expect this acquisition to be modestly accretive to earnings this year. In our Industrial segment, we reported $169 million of revenue in Q1, that's down 3% from last year. Organic revenue declined 4% and was partially offset by acquisition growth. The organic decline was due primarily to reduced year-over-year volume and pricing on transformer shipments. This decline more than offset strong double-digit growth in sales of crystal growers, hydraulic tools and communications intelligence technology. Segment income was $17 million and margins were 10.2%. Our Power Transformer business reported low single-digit margins, down significantly from Q1 2010 margins, which were in the mid-teens. This decline was partially offset by the organic growth in our other industrial businesses, as well as a $6 million insurance recovery that I mentioned. The backlog for this segment increased $44 million, up 12% sequentially. We had strong order demand across all businesses in this segment during Q1, with sharp backlog increases in our hydraulic tools and communications technology businesses. The most notable backlog growth was in our Transformer business which increased 15% sequentially and is now up 35% versus the prior year. Transformer demand in the U.S. market has been significantly stronger than it was a year ago. However, pricing in the open market, which bottomed in the second half of last year, remained at trough levels through Q1. Volume and price are highly correlated in this market due in large part to capacity constraints. In the previous upturn, after a few quarters of volume increases, pricing began to strengthen. In the 3 years that followed, our transformer revenue more than doubled and our operating margins gradually increased. In Q1 of this year, our Transformer backlog increased for the third consecutive quarter, a strong indicator that the next investment cycle is underway. We have a leading position in the U.S. medium power transformer market. Our lead times appear to have extended faster than the broader market and are now between 8 and 12 months. We have built the majority of our capacity for 2011 and are now taking orders for 2012. With lead times extending up to a year and demand at a high level, we plan to be more selective on new orders. We are very encouraged by these trends and believe this business has a very positive medium to long-term outlook. Moving on to free cash flow. Consistent with our historical experience, we reported a cash usage in the first quarter. We reported a net cash investment of $52 million. Our primary investment was in working capital, particularly in our short-cycle businesses that experienced strong organic growth in the quarter. We also invested $16 million in capital expenditures and $10 million in restructuring. For the year, we're targeting about $240 million of free cash flow. This is net of the elevated CapEx spending of $150 million. Now I'll review our updated 2011 financial targets, before I turn the call back over to Chris. In Q2, we expect consolidated year-over-year revenue growth of 10% to 15%. We expect the top line increase to be driven by our Flow and Test and Measurement segments. We are targeting single-digit organic growth with about 3% to 4% growth from acquisitions. Currency is expected to be about a 5% benefit to the quarter. We are projecting $133 million to $138 million of segment income, up 18% sequentially, but at about the same level as Q2 2010. Similar to Q1, we expect a segment income decline at Thermal to offset the aggregate growth of our other segments. Our Q2 EPS guidance range is $0.80 to $0.90 per share, down about 15% from last year at the midpoint. We expect the decline in Thermal segment income to be a headwind of approximately $0.22 to last year. This is due to fewer global power projects. In particular, we do not have the same magnitude of attractive retrofit projects that we executed in Q2 last year. We also have 2 notable headwinds below the line. Interest expense is expected to be about $6 million higher, a $0.07 reduction to earnings. This is in part due to the bonds we issued in the second half of 2010. It also includes a onetime noncash charge of about $0.03, related to a potential refinancing. During Q2, we plan to refinance the remaining portion of our credit facility. And we are targeting about a $0.06 increase in restructuring expense in Q2 this year, focused primarily on continued integration of the global footprint in our Flow segment. We anticipate earnings to increase sharply in the second half of this year compared to the first half. The increase is expected to come primarily from our Thermal and Flow segments. We feel confident about this increase given the backlog in these 2 segments. We expect our Thermal revenue to increase by more than 35% in the second half of the year as compared to the first half. This is primarily due to project timing. About 2/3 of the remaining full year revenue target for Thermal is a backlog that is scheduled to be converted to revenue over the balance of this year. We also expect a significant improvement in Thermal's profitability due to an increase in retrofit projects and historical seasonality. In Flow, we project revenue in the second half of the year to increase about 10% over the first half, nearly 50% of Flow's remaining 2011 revenue target is in the Q1 ending backlog. We also expect stock compensation expense, which is concentrated in Q1, to be $0.16 per share lower than the second half of the year. Looking at the full year targets by segment. These targets reflect the Q1 results, acquisitions and updated expectations for the remainder of the year. In our Flow segment, we have increased the revenue growth target to 15% to 20%. This is a $60 million increase that reflects the Murdoch acquisition, our favorable currency rates and a modest increase to our organic growth expectations. We also increased the target margin range for Flow to 13.2% to 13.7%. For Test and Measurement, we raised our revenue target by about $100 million. We now expect 2011 revenue to grow between 13% and 18% over the prior year. In the revised revenue target, we have increased the organic growth expectation for Test and Measurement, reflecting the Q1 growth and continued strong order trends. We have also layered in the Diagnostic Solutions acquisition and the benefit from currency. The margin targets for Test and Measurement is 8.7% to 9.2%, unchanged from our prior estimates. In our Thermal segment, we are now targeting annual revenue growth between 3% and 8%, to reflect the benefit from currency changes. Our organic expectations were unchanged. We reduced Thermal's margin target slightly from 10.1% to 10.6%. And our projections for the Industrial segment did not change. On a consolidated basis for 2011, we are now targeting just under $5.5 billion of revenue, with the mid- to high-single-digit organic growth. Acquisitions are expected to increase revenue by about 2%. Our updated guidance assumes exchange rates in early April. And based on these rates, we project currency to benefit revenue by about 3%. We are targeting segment margins to be between 10.8% and 11.3%. Our EPS guidance range is now $4.25 to $4.55 per share. This represents about a 22% year-over-year increase. We expect to convert approximately 107% of net income into free cash flow, even with the elevated capital spending. There were several underlying changes in our full year EPS guidance that netted to the $0.05 raise, the bridge on this chart highlights the primary increases and decreases. In aggregate, improved organic expectations, favorable currency rates and the acquisitions increased our EPS guidance to $0.38. This was mostly offset by reduced expectations in relation to events in Japan, as well as headwinds from some items below the segment income line. We believe we've taken a conservative approach with respect to our revised expectations in Japan and the broader nuclear market. We took $0.13 of related earnings out of the EPS guidance. Below the line, stock compensation expense is $0.10 higher in the updated guidance. This is due primarily to the increase in our stock price over the past few months. I'd like to remind you that our EPS calculation is very sensitive because of the low share count, $1 million of net income equals about $0.02 of EPS. Certain factors could occur in 2011 that may impact our EPS and free cash flow guidance. On this chart, we have listed what we believe to be the most likely potential impact and uncertainties at this time. With that, I'll turn the presentation back to Chris for closing remarks.