Earnings Labs

Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO)

Q1 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 28, 2022

$81.67

-1.40%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.09%

1 Week

-1.18%

1 Month

-19.72%

vs S&P

-15.84%

Transcript

Michel Morin

Management

Hello everyone, and welcome to our First Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. Before we begin, please take a moment to review the safe harbor disclosure on Slide 2 of the presentation, which is available on our website along with the earnings release. During the presentation we will be referencing non-IFRS measures and we define these on Slide 3 and we provide reconciliation tables to the nearest IFRS metric in the earnings release and on our website. Finally, I would like to point out that the KPIs and income statement data in today's presentation exclude Honduras because the country is not in our IFRS perimeter. And we now include Guatemala, which we fully consolidate since acquiring 100% last November. And in addition, after closing the sale of our Africa business earlier this month of April, we have moved it to discontinue the operations and have represented the historicals to remove Africa. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Mauricio Ramos, for his prepared remarks.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Thank you, Michel. Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss our first quarter results. We started the year on a very, very strong note, operating and financial results are ahead of our plans. We also continue to make meaningful progress on our purpose driven commitment to build digital highways that connect people, develop communities and improve lives in the countries where we operate. The short video that you just showed was a strong testimony to that. A few weeks ago we flipped the switch to connect the Cuna -nave communities in Panama, which have never had access to mobile data before. I was also in Honduras a couple of weeks ago to review progress on the build of new sites that would bring data connectivity for the first time ever to over 100,000 individuals. All of these also makes our brand even closer to the communities we operate in, purpose and brand working together. Now, let's go over the key highlights of the quarter, starting on Slide 5. First, we continue to sustain very strong customer growth across all our lines of businesses and in all our countries. Second, we continue to convert that customer growth into very strong service revenue growth of 4.6%. Third, we're now fully and finally out of Africa. We are now a geographically and strategically focused provider of broadband services in Latin America exclusively. And fourth, we continue to make progress on our ESG initiatives. It's a really strong start to the year, so let's begin with our customer intake come Slide 6. In short, our customer base continued to grow at a rapid pace. On the left, you can see our postpaid mobile business. We added 320,000 postpaid subscribers in the quarter. This is our third consecutive…

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Thank you, Mauricio. Let me now take you to the Q1 numbers. As a reminder, and as Michel mentioned at the beginning of the call, the way we present our financials is changing this quarter with the acquisition and consolidation of Guatemala and the sale of Africa. As a result of both these changes, we will now focus your attention on the performance of the group, which includes all of our operations except Honduras, of which we own 67%, but account for under the equity method in our reporting under IFRS standards. Let's start on Slide 15 with service revenue, which was $1.3 billion in the quarter. That's an increase of 37% year-on-year due to Guatemala acquisition. Excluding the acquisition and adjusting for FX movements, organic growth was 4.6%, which is consistent with the mid single-digit medium-term growth target that was communicated at our recent Investor Day. Our mobile business grew 4% and contributed more than half of the overall growth in the quarter. And almost all of that came from postpaid, which grew more than 9% year-on-year. This saw our performance in mobile as a direct result of the additional investments we've made in our networks and spectrum over the past couple of years, especially in Colombia, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Panama. Our fixed business grew at 4.8% and that reflects the 5.3% growth in Home that Mauricio mentioned, as well as a 3.6% growth in the fixed part of our B2B business. Finally, you can see the FX detracted from reported growth this quarter, largely due to the Colombia n Peso, which strengthened at the very end of the quarter that was about 8% weaker on average compared to a year ago. Drilling down further on slide 16 to the service revenue performance by country, once again, every…

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Thank you, Sheldon. Before we take your questions, let me recap the key highlights for the quarter. First, we had another strong quarter in terms of customer growth, especially in postpaid and B2B. Second, we're ramping up our home fiber builds and we expect this will drive faster growth in home in the second half of the year. Third, service revenue growth of 4.6 in Q1 is right in line with the medium-term targets that we outlined at the Investor Day and we're getting the customer growth, we need to sustain this level of growth going forward. Fourth, we continue to win in Colombia, as you can see from our very strong postpaid mobile performance over the past year, and this is helping us to transform our overall business in our country. And fifth and finally, we continue to make significant progress on all the commitments we made to you at the recent Investor Day. And in case you have already forgotten, let me remind you of that press release that we published with all the key coming years we have made as you can see on Slide 23. Here it is once again all in one page, eight commitments that will generate and unlock significant shareholder value. You haven't done so already, take a digital forward or print the press release and bring it to our meetings. Theses is what the plan is, hold us accountable to deliver it, the key message today is that we are squarely on track to deliver on all of these key initiatives, its great start off the year, it’s a great start towards these initiatives. We're now ready for your questions.

Michel Morin

Operator

All right. Thank you, Mauricio. We will now move to the Q&A session of the call. If you'd like to ask a question, please remember to send us an email at investors@millicom.com and we will add you to the queue. With that, we will take our first question from Marcelo Santos from JPMorgan. Marcelo. Okay. I can see you now.

Marcelo Santos

Analyst

Sorry. Hope you can hear me?

Michel Morin

Operator

Yes.

Marcelo Santos

Analyst

First question I wanted to ask was about the credit environment in Colombia, not on your bio side but on the fix side. Yesterday we heard America make a comment that the broadband environment had deteriorated, so I wanted to hear your views on that? And the second is also the competitive environment in Paraguay. There was a CEO of one of your mobile competitors and also wanted to understand how we see on the fixed side against Telecom Argentina? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Let's start with Paraguay because I think Paraguay is a country where for quite a bit of time, you heard us say that we had all the goodies and all the toys to really perform there. The spectrum that we bought earlier on, the network build-out that we did, the soccer and content part of it, and a state-of-the-art position both in fixed and mobile. And some years ago, maybe three, we put in a new team in place, put in a very, very strong customer-driven strategy. We reworked our product. And what you see today is that we're growing quite well in Paraguay. We've continued to secure the soccer rights, we've continue to build and penetrate networks in Paraguay on the fixed side, and mobile has started to come back. And as a result of all of that, you see Paraguay now for just a couple of quarters back to growth. So Paraguay is a market where I think we got it right, Marcelo, quite honestly, after a little bit. And it is one of our high performers today. With the benefit addition or the additional benefit that it is one of our really good cash flow performance. It's got high-margins, but nominal market position today, better product mix and a better competitive pricing. And we're certainly not only withstanding but thriving in otherwise. Now a little bit of context going forward, as you know, product YGE's where our Tigo Money product is the most advanced, where we try to the most. will become a testing pull for us to see what else we can do with Tigo Money. And we would only do that if we felt that we got everything else in place as we feel we do. So now we're asking the Paraguay team to focus…

Marcelo Santos

Analyst

Perfect. No thank you very much.

Michel Morin

Operator

Alright. Thank you Marcelo. Our next question is coming from Soomit Datta at New Street Research. Soomit.

Soomit Datta

Analyst

Yes. Hi there. Thanks for letting me ask a question. A couple please. First of all, on Panama, we've had an announcement from sell who were looking to exit the market, be great to get your perspectives on that. I think also specifically, is there any opportunity to pick up either infrastructure assets or spectrum which may become available. Do you know what the process is in that market when an operator hands back or essentially shuts down the business? Any steer on that would be great. Maybe I'll start with that question, please, and then follow up with another one.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Panama for us has been one of the better investment decisions should we taken, if not the best over the last, the years have been around. You know the story Soomit, its economy, our business plan have buying into fixed, defending, sustaining, growing fixed, done, done really, really well, we continued to grow and fix but on top of that layering, cross-selling into mobile, which we have done. So overnight we become, -- no, it’s taken us three years, we become the number one player in Panama on a dollar economies with use for the margins that we're driving already. In our minds, long-term Panama is a small market with fairly developed telecom infrastructure hours and our main competitors, so it is a healthy subscriber focus investment country. So in that regard, we always imagine that it would long-term become close to a 2-player market. So whether Digicel stays on or doesn't stay on, it really doesn't significantly change what we thought was and what we are delivering on. Our focus in Panama elsewhere to the area honest with you, is largely organic.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

We don't want to distract ourselves with picking these or that up because we're driving the brand, we're being preferred by customers, and we’re driving volumes, sustaining outputs. We want to be very, very focused organically. And in addition to that, I think you may have seen this development of Panama as released at really reasonable prices, AWS spectrum, which we will be picking up. I think we're in the process of buying it and acquiring it. So we picked up the spectrum that we need. And Panama has historically had a really good spectrum policy, which is parity of spectrum for everybody. So -- and we think that is a really good, really good spectrum policy going forward. Predetermined prices, reasonable prices, spectrum parity. So quite frankly, that's a good set up. Nothing that needs to be disruptive there.

Soomit Datta

Analyst

Okay. That's really helpful. Thank you. And follow-up question, please. Just a bit more detail, maybe it's one for Sheldon. But on the corporate posts, it's only been when we just simply kind of talked of the individual country EBITDAs and then compared that to the headline, the new IFRS headline EBITDA, the corporate cost seems to be around $35 million if I've done that correctly. I thought that was going to be running at near $50 million going forward, and presumably that was going to be where some of the extra Tigo Money post was going to be booked as well. So do you mind just helping clarify have I misunderstood that? Is there anything happening within this quarter, please?

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Yeah, I think you have misunderstood that. We should come back with to some around -- some of the calculations. I know we should be right closer to 45 and 35 if you do the math right. And we would have the -- we did have the Tigo Money investment consistent to where we talked about it with you at Q4. So there was just a roundabout just under $110 million of investment in Tigo Money in the quarter, consistent with what we're expecting for the full year about that -- about $40 million over the year constant on that basis.

Soomit Datta

Analyst

Okay. That's great. Thanks, Sheldon.

Michel Morin

Operator

Alright. Thanks so much. So we'll take our next question now from Vitor Tomita at Goldman Sachs. And as a reminder, if you have any questions, please send us an email at investors@millicom.com. Vitor, the floor is yours.

Vitor Tomita

Analyst

Hello. Good morning, everyone. And thanks for taking our questions. So two questions from our side. The first one, you've touched on it briefly during the call, but could you give us some more color on the current general environment and the hedger competition in Bolivia and Honduras. And the second question from our side would be as you improve cash flow and as you take strategic measures to raise additional cash, like the tower carve outs potentially Tigo Money rights offering, do you see any room in the medium term for further acquisitions up remaining stakes in businesses or for entering new markets? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

All right. Thank you, Victor. A lot is in there. Bolivia first, is a market that with the exit of Trilogy or the sale of Trilogy into what's effectively an unknown new player there seems to be going increasingly towards a two player market, which I think is a good development. Over the quarter you have had Panama and Bolivia consolidate further into two player markets. And I think that's generally a rational good for the local economies trend because two stronger players can invest in more, and you can do so in a more sustainable manner. In Bolivia, as you know, the competitor is state-owned and their policy of competition seems to be one in which volume and both pricing is a strategic outcome. As a result of that, and this is a matter of public knowledge, that the finances of the state-owned company continue to be pressured. In medium-term, long-term, we believe there's going to have to be a balancing act. And the competitive nature of that market today is on low by the way, in which the long-term finances of the state-owned entity have to come into play with more long-term balancing investment base capacity. I'm saying that in a very diplomatic manner because I think that's what the long-term outcome there is. And that's what's going to secure that the country continues to invest in the infrastructural needs. In addition to that, Bolivia is largely highly competitive as you see today on pricing on mobile. But in the meantime, we continue to grow really healthily on fixed. And we've continued to deploy our fixed network in fixed, which increasingly gets really good penetrations. As a matter of fact we wish we had been able to build a little bit faster in Q4 and Q1. But we…

Vitor Tomita

Analyst

It's very clear. Thank you very much for the answers.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Better.

Michel Morin

Operator

Thanks, Vitor. So next, we're going to go to Andres Coello at Scotia Bank, Andres.

Andres Coello

Analyst

Yes, hello, guys, can you hear me?

Michel Morin

Operator

Perfect, yes.

Andres Coello

Analyst

Good, thank you. Regarding equity free cash flow during the quarter, there was a negative equity free cash flow by $69 million. And I guess this was better than the $182 million a year ago, right? There was an improvement in terms of the negative equity free cash flow, but it seems far from guidance, which is as you said, a hundred to a billion in the next three years. I'm just wondering for 2022 what you are expecting, what you're thinking in terms of equity free cash flow, or how you are going to turn from these minus 69 to a positive number throughout the year. That's my first question. And my second question will be if you can just give us a general update on the infrastructure sale. Perhaps a little bit on timing when you will expect this to happen. Thank you very much. I'm making everybody uncomfortable by starting to answer this question because we have this rights offering and apparently I cannot give you 2022 numbers, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, so you can see them all sweating because I'm going to give you the goods. I'm going to pass it over to Sheldon so they don't sweat about it. We've already said that we're ahead of our internal budget on revenue, EBITDA, and operating cash flow, I think we said that largely even Sheldon said earlier on his prepared remarks. That gives you an idea we're on track. Equity free cash flow on a given quarter is a large result of how much we've spent on that year. A 12-order period, which is a three-year period, it really shouldn't be an indicator of what's going to happen ultimately. What I can tell you on this is we are squarely on track on all the operating metrics, revenue, EBITDA, OCF, ahead of our internal budgets in all countries. I even thought of giving you the numbers but then the guys can get really upset. We are on track operationally. And most importantly and I said on revenue, we are really getting it. And you saw operating cash flow margins. They are north 25%, right? Once we get operating leverage into the business, which we can, then it really starts trickling down at the operating level. The point I'm making is we're totally on track to equity free cash flow as we guided for the three years. And this is where everybody gets a little bit nervous. It is not all back-ended. That's as far as I can say. It's not like we're going to wait for year 3 to just show up with a billion bucks of equity free cash flow.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

I would add to that. I mean, just a few things. We did reiterate our debt target objective for the end of the year of being below three times. Embedded in that is -- essentially is our equity free cash flow ambition within there. So that is on target. I wouldn't take way too much of what we're seeing in Q1 as being indicative of our path to getting to that $800 million to $1 billion over the three years. We're on target on that. It's really some seasonality, I think, in terms of our cash flows and working capitals move in the quarter and maybe a little bit CapEx spend being, as I said in my prepared remarks, a bit more equal across the years than maybe they have in years past where they were more back-end loaded or heavier weighted to Q4. So once again, on that point though, from a full-year perspective, we're still reiterating the $1 billion of spend and it's just how it's landing within the year.

Andres Coello

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Michel Morin

Operator

Thanks, Andres. So Mauricio and Sheldon, we have no other questions in the queue. So Mauricio, I'll turn it back to you for closing remarks.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Must be that would become very simple company there, and people can just really read our results and get it. So some key messages, and I think everybody has gotten there by down. We are ahead of our plans, operationally, and we're on track to everything we committed to deliver earlier on this year. That's a key message. We're just on track and a little bit ahead. We're also in really good operational shape. I hesitate not to say that we're in the best operational shape. We've been for a long time. Revenue is growing. Every country's performing. Every business is performing. We see momentum in the business. And with the way we reshuffle the portfolio, we now have the ability because of our high operating cash flow margins to really deliver on that equity free cash flow targets for the three years that we've set out. So we're excited, really excited about the shape of the business today. If we shuffle the portfolio, moved to countries where we think we can have top-line growth, rate operating cash flow growth, and deliver because of our leverage, those operating cash flow targets of 10% on average on a yearly basis on $800 to $1 billion of equity free cash flow. And at the same time, we're making progress on the curve outs and also unlock shareholder value outside of the core business, Tigo Money and the infrastructure. And those of which we said basically are 12 to 24 time frame, they are on track. We're doing all the work. So just as I said earlier, we keep that one-pager with what our strategic plan is in the pocket. We review it weekly, and we're simply just ahead of track for those.

Michel Morin

Operator

Thank you.