Earnings Labs

Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 10, 2023

$81.67

-1.40%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, everyone and welcome to our Fourth Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. Before we begin, please take a moment to review the Safe Harbor disclosure on Slide 2 of the presentation which is available on our website, along with the earnings release. Now during the presentation, we will be referencing non-IFRS measures and we define these on Slide 3 and we provide reconciliation tables to the nearest IFRS metric in the earnings release and on our website. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Mauricio Ramos.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Let's go straight to the highlights for the year, starting on Slide 5. On the left, you will recognize the value creation framework that we presented at our Investor Day almost 1 year ago today. Back then, the global economy was bouncing back strongly from the pandemic and the economic outlook was quite positive. That changed quickly after Russia invaded Ukraine, energy prices spiked and inflation and interest rates moved up sharply. Despite this abrupt change, we have stayed the course and continue to execute on our plans. We're actually quite used to executing and delivering through uncertain times. And that's what we did in 2022. We delivered on our objectives with a good outturn for the year, as you will see during today's presentation. Operationally, we focused even more on our customers and we invested further in our networks and into our people. All of this produced strong financial results. Organic OCF growth was a strong 8.4% and equity free cash flow all in was $171 million. All of this is consistent with our plans. And as we said we would, we used that cash flow to reduce leverage. Our leverage was down to 3x at year-end. We also made very significant progress in our plans to carve out our Towerco portfolio and remain on track for a transaction later this year. Tigo Money continued to execute on its own plans to accelerate growth which we expect will generate interest among potential investors who can bring expertise and capital to help the business flourish and get to the next level on its own. And finally, 2022 was a big year for us on ESG. Our science-based targets were validated formally and we also made important commitments towards…

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Thank you, Mauricio. Before we review the financials, let's recap the macro context on Slide 16. We continue to closely monitor the macroeconomic situation in our countries. On the left, you can see how inflation has been tracking over the past year or so. It peaked at 8.5% in July and has fallen to about 8% in December. And on the right, you can see the latest GDP growth forecast from the World Bank. Our markets on average are expected to grow about 3%, with all of our largest cash generative markets in excess of 3%. This is faster than regional peers like Mexico and Brazil which are expected to grow less than 1% which I think speaks to the resiliency of our markets in the face of a potential global recession. Now, let's look at our Q4 performance, beginning on Slide 17. Service revenue was $1.3 billion in the quarter. That's up nearly 11% year-on-year due to the Guatemala acquisition. Excluding the acquisition and the impact of FX, organic growth was 2.3%. Our mobile business grew just over 2.5% and contributed about 2/3 of the overall growth in the quarter. And for a second consecutive quarter, all of the mobile growth came from postpaid which has had its best performance of the year, growing at 9.6%. Investments we've made to some of our mobile businesses and networks in recent years, especially in Colombia continued to yield positive results. Adverse FX trends impacted our revenue growth negatively this quarter and largely due to the Colombian peso which depreciated 18% on average during the quarter compared to a year ago as well as the Paraguayan Pirani which depreciated about 5%. Drilling down further on Slide 18 to service revenue by country. Mauricio already talked about Colombia and Guatemala, so I won't…

A - Sarah Inmon

Operator

Thanks, Sheldon. We'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call. [Operator Instructions] As most of you are aware, we published a press release on January 25, in which we confirm that we are having discussions with Apollo Global Management and Cloud Group about a possible or potential acquisition of all outstanding shares in Millicom and that there is no certainty that a transaction will materialize nor as to the terms timing or form of any potential transaction. And we have no new updates on this topic today. And for legal reasons that should be clear to most of you, we cannot and will not be taking any questions on this topic. So with that, we'll take the first question today from Froylan Mendez of JPMorgan.

Froylan Mendez

Analyst

So you mentioned the Everest project efforts to increase prices across the regions. We wanted to understand what are the key levers for the further free cash flow acceleration into next year? What is the main source of that acceleration? And if we could expect a similar seasonality as the one that we saw in 2022? And the second question would be if you could give additional color on the competitive environment in Guatemala mobile market and what has the impact been on prices?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Thank you, Froy. Michael, you scared me more than all the lawyers or the last a few days with those comments. So we got a CFO here who's been around now for a pre year. So we can fully tackle number 1, Froy and they don't talk a little bit about Guatemala how about that?

Sheldon Bruha

Management

First of all, just on our equity progression, we're not giving guidance specifically on for 2023 versus 2024 in our 3-year range. So I think what you picked on what's underlying or underpinning our 3-year equity cash flow target is ultimately sort of our 10% organic OCF growth that we expect over that 3-year period. And the key levers there. I think you hit pick that one of the most, at least what can we do on the top line or what we expect on the top line price increases will be a big component of that. It's something we started introducing in the second half of 2022. It's something that's going to be a big focus in 2023 and beyond. So that will be a key piece of driving that as well as that approach how we drive margins. Project Everest is going to be a big component of that. We'll get to, as I said, exiting 2024 at 100 -- in excess of $100 million of benefits. 2023 will be ramping towards that now. I wouldn't say it's exactly a straight line ramp. The recent one-off costs, probably a bit more in the beginning part of this exercise versus what you'll probably see in 2024. So it will be exactly a straight line to that $100 million exit but that will be a big contributor for both years and [indiscernible] 10% organic OCF growth over the 3-year period. All right. And then on the beautiful country of Guatemala, you get history provide the context, of course, as you all know, for the pandemic period, we took a lot of market share. We were just active on investing as we did the acquisition of the asset have about 15 months or so in row, we had expected that our…

Sarah Inmon

Analyst

Next, we're going to go to Stefan Gauffin of DNB.

Stefan Gauffin

Analyst

Stephan. So I had -- hopefully, can hear my question. I was going to talk to the -- build our plans. You have clearly accelerated the practical buildup. We had 800,000 homes passed which is a target of around 1 million homes did have not taken off way lower than the target overall. I know there is some heightened back-to-work defects in order to accelerate the -- and without better would you consider slowing down your network build until demand peaks up. I'll stop with that and then I can go short questions.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

I think our -- the connection was not helping. And as good as my Swedish is right now, your English is far better, Stefan. So I think the connection was not helping out. But I think we got a gist of the question, this around whole build, the penetrations, our commitment long term. So I think we got most of that. So kind of short term sort of what we're seeing this year and why be the slowdown in the net adds and how that makes sense in the context of us continuing to build for the long term. So the slowdown, we think, is due to one macro. And you can see that because the slowdown out in terms of the second half of the year. That makes sense to us. People are watching their consumption every -- and number two, that's also consistent with what I call [indiscernible] mobile versus home and context coming out of the pandemic the demand shifted from their own towards the office and that's consistent as people are in the context of number one, slower macro volumes. And there's also some specific country issues which relate to Bolivia where the strikes were not just the last quarter throughout the year, they were going to be minor in or to sell install -- is kind of really the a few are on 20,000 were. And the most important one of all of these is we've been extremely price-disciplined -- whereas some of our competitors, we may have not quitting price increases, we have. Whereas some of our competitors may have not postal installation costs we have. And we think this is a serve as a long-term healthy mix of if we take some short-term pain but we have to explain to you on the…

Stefan Gauffin

Analyst

You had some test business but EUR50 million of risk business, could you just update where you are for [indiscernible].

Mauricio Ramos

Management

I didn't get it Danielle's going to have to go on. I think give us as sort of where we are in AFS revenues as we're seeing this year versus what we've been talking about historically of $50 million. Is that the question? Yes. Okay. Okay. So we haven't disclosed the numbers but we're growing at sort of high single digits to low double digits year-over-year. At this point in time, I think the important point to note around MPS is we've essentially spent a lot of this year as recently say in the prepared comments on establishing the new platform and rolling out the new platform this year. That rollout was really happening in the second half, frankly, the latter part of the second half of the year. So a lot of the benefits from that, it hasn't really been never to realize at this point in time. But I think it's -- we've been encouraged by sort of the digital adoption and the like on this platform but it hasn't sort of translated into sort of within your revenues in 2022 or something amort. This is why where I would have wanted to give you Q4 numbers but we would have been really persistent and everybody during the presentation to be like how doing talking about full year in Q4 because it's really in Q4 actually November, December and you see the runout that MFS is high because you see the digital subscribers coming in, the merchants coming the revenue coming and significantly, the NPS really staying on very, very high in some really, really good results on our trials or through the entering.

Sarah Inmon

Analyst

We'll now go to Klas Danielson at Nordea.

Klas Danielsson

Analyst

Sorry, submissions with the new patent here in Stockholm. So no, I was only going to ask questions on the acquisition but Michele's scared me a bit to here, so I'm going to avoid that. But you Compliance guys give me your med card. And you have those over line, you just showed it and I was like, okay, that works... It's a good gesture, I think, for sure. A couple of follow-ups, I guess, on Stefan's question on the CapEx levels. So I mean, you had cash CapEx of roughly $960 million in 2022. You guided for $1 billion previously. I guess that's been the kind of headline numbers, I guess. And that's kind of despite inflation being what it is to a certain degree and just the impact that, that is having. So I guess it's partly due to a slowing momentum in home during this year. But I think with Project Everest, I mean you're guiding for kind of additional CapEx cuts. But then on the flip side, you still want to invest in the home business. Could you maybe talk about some of the kind of puts and takes within the CapEx older? Is this a sustainable level in the long term? Or what should we be expecting in absolute CapEx spend over the next few years?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

So I'll give you some color and maybe Sheldon can bring it down to ones just to some more specific in a time -- we've been investing, as we showed in the presentation, we usually see around $1 billion, just to give that lack of a number. Obviously, we're coming in below that number with under names an extremely healthy CapEx-to-sale ratio CapEx intensity over the last 3 years. And that's because [indiscernible] investing a bit in the business cost in sale of the group to the board, we're coming out of a big investment cycle. Most of the big things that are not variable in nature are behind us. That's important. So what are those things? We modernized the down, will show you, all of them in the last 3 years. We put 5G [indiscernible], I'm talking about now and the same quarter in every operation. And that's important, not only the current port there but also because it is our view that 5G would be any same in the meeting. That's a very important point because it means that the CapEx associated with it, is similar to consistent with what you would expect us doing on priority mortgages [ph]. We've also spent the last few years expanding average. That 80% coverage is important because what it means is going forward is less coverage finance on a more variable happens for capacity CapEx, if you will, should have traffic revenue associated from here. And of course, as you surely know, we are almost done with the Colombia 700 that were built which is in the past. And on fixed, we actually had a bit of a tag with Stefan's question. Our bill continues to be heavy immune fixed. We're now almost 13 million passes, 700 million of those are already fiber and we have the ability to build high working many patients. The most important thing that we said in our Investor Day is that -- our existing network is fiber dip with deep, deep capacity. All of the copper upgrades, remember those are done. We've got maybe 200,000, 300,000 homes still with copper that we just get tricky in a trickle manner with our radio. So on fixed, it's really -- and we've ramped up the FTH for the FTTH machine which means we're going to get our reverse logistics to start to be better. So all of the -- for lack of fixed heavy lifting, if you will, on CapEx is sort of behind us. And from year on, it becomes a lot more variable. We even did this year with [indiscernible] fiber which we're very happy about. It's not only relevant for us -- but first in the network on the business.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

I would just add a little on project net risk. I mean from a CapEx perspective, I would expect to see a lot of savings on the CapEx side, at least in terms of what ends up in terms of being our bottom line number that we're reporting. I mean, there's some opportunities around CapEx. I think that also just need sort of more from what we're spending than actually a reduction in spend. So we'll be getting more -- I think, more bang for our dollar on the CapEx side. And then just the other point of CapEx kind of we've been mentioning kind of throughout the call. I think the other variable on our spend for next year is going to really come down to the demand and pace of our home net adds. That was a little bit lower this year, therefore, anisole spend on that in terms of what we reported this year. And Everest is all about doing things more efficiently, better or digital is what you would expect us to be doing over the long term. It's not about cuts, it partly but it's about efficiency going forward.

Klas Danielsson

Analyst

All right. No, very good. And then just a quick follow-up also on that side but the other line, I guess, on the spectrum and licenses part because there you're also tracking a bit lower than what we were kind of expecting since the CMD. Is this the kind of full level? Or again, what should we kind of expect on that side?

Sheldon Bruha

Management

I think we said spectrum under our Investor Day we track 100 to 150 kind of where we were from a were before. I'll tell you as the structure is very lumpy. Any given year, you have depends on whether something and didn't happen -- didn't get delayed. So don't read too much into any given year and rather take the averages and go back some time. I'm sure part of your question has to do with the Colombia spectrum. I would imagine there's a large chunk of that. And just the question is going to come up later and use yours is a good segue to go into it. We're in the middle of those negotiations this year as you're very well aware. So I'd rather not comment too much, only to say that we're not really expecting enterprises against our targets over the long term because we've been conservative in that regard as we should be. It does not need to say class that spectrum prices in rodent we mean how we should be for international began. It just means that we are conservative and realistic in our approach to forecasting as a result. We don't expect surprises.

Sarah Inmon

Analyst

So next, we're going to go to [indiscernible].

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

So I had 3 questions, please. The first one was if you could give a bit of color in terms of your pricing activity in the different markets. You've talked about some of them already. But when I take a step back, look at the inflation, look at your service revenue growth, it seems that it's hard to catch up with inflation. So maybe if you could help us understand a bit more how that's playing out? Are the price increases front book, back book, are you seeing spin-down? So that's the first question. The second question was on Everest. I just wanted to clarify that the $100 million annual savings, that's something that should enable you to reach the guidance or potentially even go above the guidance. And within that, although it's maybe not part of Project Everest, I imagine that the higher financing costs due to the high interest rates could also have an impact on your free cash flow. So maybe you can comment on that. And then the last question which may give Mauricio the opportunity to use its threat card; I feel a bit safe [ph]. But the question is when you consider the deal, are you -- do you need to follow the U.S. rules, the Swedish rules, both? How is the context there?

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Definitely, that is going to be used for that fourth well. We're not going to be going there. But the first 3 are good for you, Mauricio.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

All right. So I'm going to hand over the ends to our Everest expert. Right? Give me actually in that time at risk by the way. So we'll hand one and I'll take the pricing one right after that. I'm not sure what third one was?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Just on [indiscernible] does that kind of propel us, I think, beyond sort of what we're talking about the network free cast range? Or I think I kind of mentioned some of the earlier comments, that hops underpin the 10% organic operating cash flow growth that we've been talking about.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

So that is -- that just help support the company that targets not to the supplemental to that target. With regard to the interest expense cost, look, from that perspective, I comment quite rightly, we're pretty well positioned in this environment of increasing interest rates. More than 80% of our debt is fixed rate. So we have a very low one that's actually floating and exposed to that. We don't have a lot of debt maturities here in the near term which you've shown in our maturity profile. So there's not a lot of need for us to be going out the repricing destinies current environment. So we thought that's positive. And then of course, even better than that, we've generated some good cash here that were going to be used to reduce leverage and you would probably even reduce our need to go out and the capital markets for financing. So on a deleveraging standpoint which is a positive from that perspective too. So we think we're pretty insulated and well positioned in the strategic issue.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

So let me let me try the pricing math in a constructive manner with a little bit of detail and also some big pictures to share with that. So let's split the question in the segment. So you get a better feel for what's going on state whether you're doing prepaid favor, residential broadband book. So prepaid because it's dynamic pricing at on a daily basis or as some as our new top office fans and comprise market, it largely is done, of course, on the gross basis. In most of the markets, we've been adjusting as much as we can. And they should there, of course, is price sensitivity. And as one elasticity with the exception of also market where we've been more careful like I already talked about, of course and Bolivia, where our competition has kept competition significant on prepaid. We've not been able to do that. So with the exception of those 2 markets, everywhere else, we will be pricing up to the new offer as much as we can in general terms. When you look at postpaid, the same is true, we focus with the price increases on the new offers rather than under base, we're a lot more careful with the days because you don't want to create a big massive difference between the two. And generally, we've been very good at doing that, particularly in El Salvador, Paraguay and we see in the results. We're actually being able to do that in Guatemala as well. And we've held back in Panama, the reasons that I think Sheldon mentioned. And we're also being a little bit more careful for the same reasons [ph]. So that gives you an idea on that. And then on home, I talked about has been very price spin. So…

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Absolutely. Just a follow-up on the home, just to make sure I understand clearly, you are also increasing the front book and the back book, both.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Based on the growth. So next, we're going to go to Fannie at HSBC [ph].

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I have a couple of questions. So it's been a year since you went to the Investor Day and gave some guidance. So I wanted to understand where we stand on a couple of issues there. First, we expect -- at the time, we expected that organic service revenue growth would be mid-single digit. Is it still viable now? Or is it that the project are would offset any weakness there? The second one is, I know we saw that the share buybacks would be expected to commence in 2023 was what we had received at the time. Is that in the plan? Or it's still too early to say anything -- so I'll ask other questions later.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Sheldon is having a lot of fun today because these are both for him.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

I think just the first year just as in sort of the underlying -- some of the targets we had at the Capital Markets Day and sort of are we reiterating that. I think that's the key one we mentioned were just the one in the press release and we mentioned earlier in the call, right, the operating cash flow of organic cash flow growth of 10% over the 3 years year. And then of course, the debt free cash flow over the 3 years of $800 million to $1 billion. So those are the ones that targets we've pointed to. There's also the deleveraging target. There will also be bioscience 2.5x by year. This is by 2025 and then down to 2x thereafter. We did comment at the Capital Markets Day about an intention to do share buybacks in 2023. I would say that's still our ambition. Clearly, a lot has changed in the world over the last 12 months and we're now operating in a higher risk environment, kind of tougher capital markets and higher interest rates and the like. But February, let's see how the year plays out. And in the immediate term, we're going to continue to prioritize deleveraging and paying down our debt because we think that's the appropriate allocation of capital for the business to ensure we meet those deleveraging targets but near-term buybacks remain our ambition. My soccer coach used to say never forget that soccer games have 90 minutes. Holidays a little bit more on the new rules and make sure you play all the way until the end So the other question that I had is regarding the repatriation from Honduras. I mean it's kind of making more than 50% of your equity free cash flow. I think you had $88 million of repatriation from Honduras, I believe. So is that sustainable going forward?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Or what is in your target for the next couple of years? Well, look, we're not giving guidance for revaluation for specific segments. I would point out but I think your comment is about 50% of our equity free cash flow. But we've talked about in the past that Guatemala actually generates $450 million plus of equity free cash flow. So that's -- you can't, I think, isolate one single country's contribution because there's also interest costs and cost essentially in the center of the center that needs to be absorbed. So I just want to caution you against that point to try to think that's part of our great cash flow is not really dependent on Honduras which is that's not big. It only looks that way because of the accounting, right, on those in reality, a countries are contributor, as you know, exception in Colombia and they will give them ten and they all came on twit headquarter costs. And then we do it looks like that nicely, right? That's just the way looks not reality of 30% of our initiation -- it's 10% of other I think the question to help us clarify that. We're been worried on whereby the way, looks -- thank you for your question. And just a final question on the fixed competition. As you said that the competition is not responding to your price increases. Is there any specific market that is not responding? Or is it a broad-based kind of a response from the operators? Any specific markets or competitors? Yes. Just if you have more questions on our board, if I'm good.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

So we talked about what the area Colombia which is very important, we will talk about this, the market has in now. And I already talked about 6 in Colombia. So mobile in Colombia has been recomposing in pricing significantly over the last few quarters. And you see that our prepaid ARPU in local currency is up our memory up 6%. And postpaid is also up. And both of those lines and businesses, prepaid and postpaid are now contributing to our mobile in Colombia which is growing 13%, 15%. That's more volume but also pricing soaring in Colombia is being recomposed. That's an important element of that. You see on [indiscernible]. There's a fair amount of good behavior in the market which is consistent with the notion that it's a 2-player market in which market shares are healthy for it. We expect that like Guatemala and Panama, that will be to say a healthy market share market. We talked about Panama as well in the same that there have been a pullback on any price movements in we monetize our sell market. So we'll see what 2023 as to earn our regard. Paraguay, very constructive in nomadic and also reconstructing on one pricing or nature pricing. We've seen that now Paraguay had now 6 or 7 consecutive orders of service revenue growth, margin expansion and restructuring of this cements -- and what am I missing olive talked about, so I don't think any go back there. So I think I'll cover them all.

Operator

Operator

So that was our last question. Mauricio back to you, if you want to make any final remarks.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Okay, that's it. We had an investor call about a year ago, we laid out a number of initiatives. And as you do point out, we gave a 3-year outlook that is composed of 3 key targets, 10% of rating cash flow both in average for that period derivative equity free cash flow of $1 billion and reducing leverage to 2.5 by 2025 2x by long term. All I need to say is that the first year that consists on track. And that's really the summary on this. The second point is we've made a couple of big acquisitions over the last few years, both Guatemala and Anima. Both are working. As I hope you can see, after a year Guatemala and about 2 years Panama that they are on track to our acquisition plans in [indiscernible]. So with that that's really doing the 2 closing remarks begin -- thanks for joining today.

Sarah Inmon

Analyst

Thank you.