Earnings Labs

Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO)

Q3 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 27, 2022

$81.67

-1.40%

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Transcript

Sarah Inmon

Management

Hello, everyone. Thanks for connecting to our video conference to discuss our Third Quarter 2022 Results. Before we begin, please take a moment to review the Safe-Harbor disclosure on slide two of the presentation, which is available on our website along with the earnings release. During the presentation, we will be referencing non-IFRS measures, and we define these on slide three. And we provide reconciliation tables to the nearest IFRS metric in the earnings release, as well as on our website. I will now turn the call over to our CEO Mauricio Ramos for his prepared remarks. Mauricio?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. The key message is that, we are on-track to meet our organic OCF growth target of approximately 10% for this year to generate solid equity free-cash flow in 2022, in-line with our budget for the year, to invest about $1 billion in CapEx this year, which is also consistent with our long-term target and we're also on-track on our key projects to highlight and crystallize value for our infrastructure and fintech arms, and on-track on reducing our net debt, with net debt down this quarter despite the tougher macro. And we're on-track also on our social and ESG initiatives with meaningful external recognitions that I will address later today. So, the macro-environment is indeed much tougher, and yet we remain not totally, but very broadly on-track. And this is because: one, we enter this period of increased macro volatility from a position of immense strength. Our networks have been modernized and expanded, that increased our customer-base with sustained or larger market shares. Our SangreTigo culture is at its strongest point ever and our brand positioning has strengthened as a result in just about all of our markets. And two, because our business and, particularly its cash flow is extremely resilient, we showed that to you in [indiscernible] during the pandemic. And despite the weakened macro long-term demand for our products is still very much there and broadband penetrations are still very low. And three, because we do volatility and challenging environments quite well, we continue to invest wisely through those circumstances and always we take on the opportunity to become more-and-more efficient. Indeed earlier this year, right after we could foresee this development is happening we started out a new long-term efficiency project to protect our targets. That…

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Thank you, Mauricio. Before we review the financials, let me recap the macro context on slide 16. As you would expect, inflation in our markets has increased over the last 12 months, in line with global trends and reaching an average of about 8% in September of 2022. And on the right, you can see the GDP growth expectations have been coming down, with growth of 4% now presented for our markets in 2022, slightly faster than the 3.2% that the IMF is projecting for the global economy. The IMF also projects that 2023 will be another year of slower growth and it's interesting to see that our margins are expected to grow faster on average than the rest of the world, which I think is testament to the resilience of the countries where we operate. Now let's look at our Q2 performance beginning on slide 17. Service revenue was $1.3 billion for the quarter, that's up 35% year-on year, given the Guatemala acquisition. Excluding the acquisition and the impact of FX, organic growth was 2.7%. Our mobile business grew slightly more than 3% and contributed more than two-thirds of the overall growth in the quarter. And all of the mobile growth came from postpaid, which continues to perform strongly and grew just shy of 9% year-on year. We continue to reap the benefits from the additional investments we've made in some of our mobile businesses over the last couple of years, especially in Colombia. FX detracted from our revenue growth this quarter, largely due to the Colombian peso, which depreciated 12% on average during the quarter compared to a year ago. Like many currencies globally the Colombian peso has continued to weaken compared to the US dollars since the end of the quarter, but many of our other currencies…

Sarah Inmon

Management

Thanks, Sheldon. Thanks, Mauricio. So we'll now go to the Q&A portion of the call. If you'd like to ask a question, please email us at investors @millicom.com. And we'll take the first question now from Stefan Gauffin at DNB. Stefan?

Stefan Gauffin

Management

Yes. Hello.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Hi, Stefan. How are you.

Stefan Gauffin

Management

Yeah, I'm fine. So a couple of questions. Let's see if I can stop my video as well. So first of all can you talk about which markets and products you have implemented price increases for. When was this done and what magnitude of price increases? Perhaps more importantly what was the market reaction and how has your competitors responded? Have they followed you or -- any flavor of this would be really helpful.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

And you said you had two questions.

Stefan Gauffin

Management

Yeah. I can take the second one directly here. You are indicating some $200 million to $250 million in equity free-cash flow in Q4 in order to reach your targets. Looking at the seasonality, Q4 is usually a strong quarter in terms of net working capital, last year you had $100 million net working capital release. But I mean, it's clearly more needed in order to reach your target. So any flavor on what you see for cash-flow generation for Q4?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

So why don't we go backwards, because I think the second one is super mathematical under the history of this in all of our prior year's in which we've actually done more in the fourth quarter than if we look into during this year. And so, I'll ask Sheldon to walk you through that one. And then I'll take on the pricing one in a second.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Sure. Hi, Stefan. Yes so. I think as I've talked about in the past and you picked-up just on your comments there. There is a large seasonality into our cash flows as a company, a lot of its working capital related. As I mentioned before, we spend a lot sort of in Q1 on working capital and we've got a big outflow that's related to amount prepayments through the year for software and regulatory fees and the like. We built-up inventories kind of in the years for handsets and the like which in Q4 is probably one of our biggest sales quarters for the year, so those inventories kind of get depleted at that point in time. So you see a big swing and you've seen it historically and so there's a big outflow in our working capital which basically comes back in Q4. I think what's also bit more pronounced this year is the phasing of our CapEx, in Q4 last year was it was a very large CapEx quarter for us. You can see, as I highlighted in our slides. This year's Q4 CapEx can be upwards about $100 million less than prior year. So there is just a phasing of kind of our CapEx spend, this got to actually just benefit us as well from a cash flow timing perspectives as we move through the year. So that's all going to essentially come to fruition here in Q4 and that's where we see for large cash inflows coming into its achieve sort of $150 million to $200 million range that you talked about.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

It's the nature of the business, as you very well know. We tend to book our CapEx in Q4 and paid in Q1. Taxes are paid in Q1. Most of the payments are prepaid during the first-half of the year. So that's the nature of the business, it happens every year and this year is consistent with prior years. I think the difference this year is it becomes a little bit more obvious to you, because we're not consolidating Guatemala and because we are giving new equity free-cash flow guidance. So just you're seeing what we see every year, it’s just done in a positive manner. So that’s pretty mathematical. On the price increases and what we're seeing in the market and how much of that [indiscernible]. I'm going to try to keep it somewhat summary because it's nine markets, basically three lines of businesses, prepaid, postpaid and not including B2B. I will talk to that. So the matrix of that is quite big, so we can give you some more color offline. I think the big market where things are moving towards price reconstruction is Colombia. And that is true, both in prepaid and in postpaid, where you've seen ARPU actually grow up in Colombia around 6% if I'm not mistaken. So that given us in Colombia both volume gains and also price increase and ARPU pickup in Colombia. So the overall ARPU in Colombia is reconstructing significantly. As you know, we expect that it would eventually happen. The situation today is one in which Columbia mobile is growing about 40%, 50% because there both volume and ARPU change. We're also seeing prepaid price reconstruction in Paraguay, those are the two market where we're seeing price decreases take the most. Everywhere else is still to be determined where there…

Stefan Gauffin

Management

That's perfect. Thank you.

Sarah Inmon

Management

All right. Our next question is going to come from Marcelo Santos at JPMorgan. Marcelo?

Marcelo Santos

Management

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first question is on the line of the price increase of the first. I mean, Tigo operates in markets where it has a very good market structure. Tigo is usually number-one or two and there are few competitors, but when we see inflation is running at eight and you are growing your organic revenues service revenues at 2.7, what's the main gap here, is this only macro, is there -- could you just try to break-down this gap and how this should follow going-forward? That's the first question. The second question is, if you could dig a little bit deeper on Bolivia, this regulatory changes what happened and what -- how should this progress going-forward? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

So, you are absolutely right, Marcelo, and t's a very good point, it allows us to point out that price increases on the back of an inflationary environment do not get immediately visible through our P&L. So the first reason why you don't see is right away is, number one, there is a timing lag. Most of these are being put forth as we speak or will be put forth in Q4 and some earlier in the year, but you don't do -- you don't want to go through the entire base, we do it in cohorts. So there is a lag effect on this. Point number-one. Point number two is, there is price elasticity of demand, i.e. in the context of inflation, every penny that you pass-on may come back to you with a hard some downgrades, it came back to you with some softer demand and its results of that recent price elasticity [indiscernible] on that one, because you know that that’s the reality. So the long-term value that you will eventually pass-through, but in the short-term in the context of our inflationary environment it will take longer simply because of some price elasticity over there. And the third effect is that, competitors even though they are two-player markets, they see the opportunity to just wait it out, maybe a month, two months, maybe a quarter, maybe a couple of quarters and see if they take a little longer to react to the price increases, they may have better results. That’s the human nature of individuals and management teams, but it doesn't change the long-term outlook, right? It's just a couple of quarters of dislocation of long-term equity that always kicks in. So those are the three reasons why there in a lagging element to the price increases flowing into the P&L. And what was the –

Marcelo Santos

Management

Bolivia.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Conversation. Yes so the Bolivia was on what the market call on demand, but [indiscernible] talk a little bit Bolivia macro. So the actual situation, the regulatory changes in Bolivia, this is a prepaid model by the way. And Bolivia is the last one of the countries in which when consumers have active people, right, they are consuming their prepaid balance on a promotion on that [indiscernible]. But if they use that app and they still have balance, that gets consumed at [indiscernible] which are high. Right. The entire industry continue to do this until about couple of months ago when the regulators said, we don't want to stop doing that, right? So you cannot charge when someone is out of a specific prepaid plan [indiscernible]. They always has to be within one of your existing packages. The state-owned company was doing the exact same thing as we were, so perfectly [indiscernible]. But the regulators said, don't do that. So what that does is, it takes out some of our higher pricing on prepaid when people were off, still on-balance but off the [indiscernible]. And as a result that we see a step-change in our revenue. Now that will wash out, obviously, eventually, and we'll go back to normal rates. So it's a one-time loss of revenue, because we no longer allowed to do down the line.

Marcelo Santos

Management

When was that implemented?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

In the middle of the quarter. In the middle of the quarter. So this quarter, you'll see sort of a partial impact. I mean, I think on a going forward basis, of course, we're reconfiguring our offerings to help mitigate as much of that as possible. And look, there'll be a period of time as for elasticity of the customers sort of moderate to the new environment. So we expect over time to mitigate a lot of the loss. But I think we'll have some impact here in a bit more pronounced even probably in Q4 in Bolivia because a lot of the full quarters impact of that until that mitigation happens more towards the course of 2023.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

And one word [indiscernible] we don't miss, we sort of bring higher story on Bolivia. Indeed mobile in Bolivia is going through some short term [indiscernible] the regulatory. And of course, our competitor remains very [indiscernible] in its pricing. We don't believe that a mobile that long term pricing capacity for our competitor exists and they really run it for quite a long time. So we believe at some point they would run out of steam because they can't continue. In the meantime, our home business continues to grow and we continue to be very bullish on it. As you know, we created a business of cable in Bolivia over the last seven years up to date. It's massive. It's actually bigger in terms of revenues on our overall business in Bolivia. And we see a lot of runway. We restarted later this year as we continue to move into next year our build in Bolivia, because we think there maybe 0.5 million homes that can still be built in fiber in Bolivia. And we see a lot of growth opportunities as a matter of fact, you see that our base in Bolivia has gone up 7% year on year. We've employed on our Tigo business part of the equation, we deployed our Tier 3 data center and we're now basically doubling its capacity because it’s really kicking in Tigo business in Bolivia. So we restarted our build and we think Tigo will be an increasing driver of our Bolivia revenue along with [indiscernible] already more than half of the business. So that gives you the entire picture of what's happening in Bolivia despite the regulatory change, the social policy pricing by competitor.

Marcelo Santos

Management

Thank you, fair enough. Thanks a lot.

Sarah Inmon

Management

Thanks, Marcelo. All right, we're going to go now to Soomit Datta at New Street Research.

Soomit Datta

Management

Yes. Hi, guys. Two or three questions, if that's okay, please. Firstly, on the mid-term equity free cash flow outlook, $800 million to $1 billion. Obviously, the macro environment is getting tougher and you've talked about inflation obviously as a factor. So the broader context is a tricky one for you guys, but you're reiterating the guidance. How much is Project Everest, I think you called it? How much is that a relevant factor in making sure you hit the outlook going forward? And as a related question, the spectrum in the first nine months, I think, has been running at about $160 million. So would there be an expectation that that would be slightly above the normal run rate and it would reset, particularly thinking about some Colombian spectrum need to be reissued into 2022. So yes, I mean equity free cash flow just hitting the guide in the tougher environment and specifically maybe anything on spectrum? That's kind of one question. Secondly then, just on inflation as well.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

[Multiple Speakers]

Soomit Datta

Management

One question with seven parts. Why don't I let you answer that and then maybe we run out of time.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

We'll forget the second and the third anyway. Listen, there's many ways to -- and I think I found most of the pieces of it. There's many ways to answer for that, but I think the better way to address it is. The two things that are subsets in your question, we already baked in to the moment when we put things out for investor day. Meaning, by that time, although we don't have correct visibility on the final spectrum renegotiations in Colombia happening pretty much as we speak and into next year, we baked into that notion that the Colombian spectrum will be renewed at higher prices than before. And that with have an impact in 2022 and 2023 and that from 2024 onwards there's no longer that sort of bigger payment for the Colombia spectrum. I hope I made very clear, very clear on that. I wanted to do at the time, which gives everybody visibility that, yes, 2022 and 2023 would be handicapped if you will, more impacted by the Colombia spectrum. But that lapse and in 2024 we're free from that. So that part of it was baked in -- is baked in, although we don't know what the final output would be. But we made our assumptions and they are all baked into that $800 million number. And as we said, I think in my prepared remarks, as a result of that our equity free cash flow that we've now told you for this year was going to be $150 million to $200 million is right in line with what we budget. So there's no change to that. We've budgeted right in the middle of that [indiscernible] that if you will. So there's no big price to us there. The thing that is a little…

Soomit Datta

Management

Okay. That's super helpful. Maybe just a very quick follow-up then, if that's okay. On Guatemala, I'm just sort of interested in the sort of phasing of the competitive environment. So you've sort of explained the context for what's happening, but we sort of at the beginning of the -- beginning of a process of escalating competition? Or do you think they are sort of midway through or coming to the end of it?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

So there's -- I'm not going to go back to explain, like, the history and the context. I think we did that on the prepared remarks. You get that quite well, right? We've gained quite a bit of market share in the last two years. Our competitor who seems to want some of that back and we're trying to figure out, I don't know, we kind of like you where we are. So we liked our skill and we like our market share. And the bigger question is the one you posed, which is, look at what happens from here going forward. Is this a skirmish or is this more of a drag on kind of competitive environment? I want to point out to perhaps three key things I think are different in Guatemala or [indiscernible] long term? Number one, this is a two player market with two rational strategic mid-term driven investors. But it's not only, that’s a fairly well balanced market, the 60-40 market, right? So there are no long term incentives for either one of us to try to inch up significantly so. We don't [signalize] (ph) our own revenue, whether it's our competitor or ourselves. Now with that, I think this is a short term dislocation, it is with some thunderstorms, some rains, but it is not a protracted long term winter, you want to allow that analogy, because the incentives are simply not there, right? Nobody gains from what it is. That's review. But I realize that this is going to hurt us in the short term than I did, other markets are focused on the short term. While I would say the heck of this may say. They are faster and they are bolder, we react to defend our 60% market share position the sooner the rainbow pass. And as I said in our prepared remarks, we play this for the long term. And we think the better long term is to actually get to that long term equilibrium very, very sustainable long term equilibrium the sooner we can. That's what the matter for you in a nut shell.

Soomit Datta

Management

Great. Very helpful. Thanks.

Sarah Inmon

Management

Thanks, Soomit. So we'll go now to [Sunny] at HSBC.

Unidentified Participant

Operator

Thanks for taking my question. So my question is on Colombia. It seems that your revenues quarter on quarter have been rather flattish. What is driving this? And how did the competitors react to your price increases in Colombia? So that's the first question from my side. The second question that I have is on a more consolidated level. How much is the broader pricing business that you have on a consolidated level? How much is it impacting your ARPUs? And how much is your -- how is it going to of secure inflation? And how is that going to take the guidance for 4Q EBITDA growth?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

[Multiple Speakers] just flattish Colombia, you are saying ARPUs there or –

Unidentified Participant

Operator

I'm talking about the service revenue growth in Colombia. If you look at it on Q-o-Q -- on quarter-on-quester it looks flattish, but you are growing very fast on the mobile. So what is driving the flattish quarter on quarter growth in Colombia?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Okay. And the second one was just basically ARPU price increase.

Unidentified Participant

Operator

How much is the general price increases? And what is your expectation for EBITDA growth in Q4? And how does that currently offset your inflation -- inflationary costs?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Okay. So listen, on Colombia, again, it's better to answer with the big context. Our service revenue growth in Colombia is about 6%, largely coming from mobile. And in mobile, it is a combination of increased intake in customers. We got about 20,000 again this quarter in Colombia and we continue to inch up our position in Colombia every quarter now for six or more quarters. So there's an element of that which is volume. And postpaid in Colombia is up 25%, 30% on volume on a year on year basis. Then a chunk of this which is volume, which is the result, Sunny, as you may recall, from us getting spectrum, building a network, increasing commercial distribution, etcetera, etcetera. What is new in Columbia on mobile, which we had anticipated, but is happening now for a couple of quarters is that, ARPU in mobile is being reconstructed and it's growing right around 6% now in pesos. And the reason for that is that, I think we sensed quite well that the market was ready for reconstruction and this is one of pricing penetration which we did. I was followed by now pretty much all the competitors in Colombia. And that's leading to the 6% ARPU reconstruction going forward. Now your question, I think has a little bit more to do only with Colombia, which indeed is a little bit more sluggish in Colombia. And as I addressed on the remarks and in my earlier questions, indeed in Colombia inflation is high, 10% and consumers are filling that. And Colombia was one of the countries in which people were mostly constrained to their own during the pandemic. It's actually one of the highest home or lack of mobility ratio, so that we're seeing a lot of what I referred to…

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Yeah. On the second part, you're just asking sort of price increases, how those play out here in the remainder of the year. Look, of course, we implemented a lot during the course of the quarter, we will be looking and expecting sort of to see full quarter with the benefit of that here into Q4. We haven't guided at all sorts of our Q4 results on service revenue, but we have to talk to you about what we're expecting on OCF and that being very back end loaded this year. And I will tell you that OCF objectives we have for the year and guidance we have for the year is not predicated on improvements on service revenue growth here for the balance of the year. So if we're not relying on all of that to kind of improve. I am expecting sort of EBITDA growth to improve here maybe for the remainder of the year. A lot of that just because we're starting to lap some of the investments we've been making in Tigo Money and [indiscernible], which we're ramping up kind of in Q4 last year. So we've got to have much more of a like for like comparison now in Q4, so we should see some EBITDA benefits on the growth line from that, which is going to help also drive the OCF target we mentioned for the year of approximately 10%.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

And I think we kind of went through that pretty quick and we are on target to be right around that 10% OCF growth this year, which is consistent with our three year 10% OCF growth organically on average. So kind of focused on the cash flow, but the OCF, which is the only thing we've been providing long term guidance and actually on average on a yearly basis it is also on track.

Unidentified Participant

Operator

Yes. Thank you.

Sarah Inmon

Management

Thanks, Sunny. Next, I think we have Lucas Chavez from UBS. Lucas, are you on?

Lucas Chavez

Analyst

Thanks for having my question. I cannot open my camera right now, it's not working on Zoom, but two questions here actually, the first one on Panama and the second one on El Salvador. On Panama, if you could give us more details on the current operation. I know you talked a lot about Panama already, but just to understand better mobile there and the consolidation. And why you're seeing there that is different from other countries? And if we -- and El Salvador, I just want to understand better service revenue than the growth seen in this quarter? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

All right? So on Panama, it's performing -- this is one of those rare unique situations in which we are performing right as our acquisition business plan said. And for the same reasons that our acquisition plan said when we perform in Panama. Even despite the pandemic and the inflationary environment, our business plan was predicated on getting a position in home that had 60%, 70% market share, defending our position going forward and being able to acquire a mobile player that then we could cross sell and increase market share as a result of being able to cross sell using our mobile market share. All of that, Lucas, has turned out as our investment thesis was. So in a country that is investment grade, dollar economy and which has become effectively the two player market as we speak. One player was acquired by Cable and Wireless. The other one has basically handed over the business to the government. And as a result of that, we're in a three player, possibly two player market on mobile in Panama, which has led out to the industry structure that we think is becoming the norm in Central America. But things have played out pretty much the way we imagine they would. And as a result of that, and this is the punch right now, I'll give you some detail in second Lucas, What you see in Panama is, dollar denominated revenue, two player market effectively, we have the number one position for gaining scale on mobile and being able to not only defend fixed, but also grow our footprint because there's opportunities as the business continues to grow on fixed, because the economy is growing. As a result of that we see household formation in many new cities around Panama, which makes…

Lucas Chavez

Analyst

Okay. That's very clear. Thank you.

Sarah Inmon

Management

All right. Thanks Lucas. So we're right on the hour and that was our last question. SO back to you Mauricio.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

All right. So I guess I got to wrap it up some here. You're not going to hear from me any last minute remarks that are different from what we're saying. We are on track to deliver that right around 10% cash flow growth this year. And if that is consistent, we are average 10% of growth for the three year period. We've had to adjust, as I said, in order to get there and we're making it. We're going to get to $150 million to $200 million of equity cash flow this year, which is consistent with the way we have budgeted for the year and consistent with our three year plan, [indiscernible] $800 million to $1 billion of equity call flow. We also continue to invest $1 billion and we have to do investments we have made in the past and we're happy with the ones we're making, we'll see a ton of upside opportunity, both in home and in mobile where every time we deploy new network, we see a pick up. And we're also making progress on the strategic initiatives that we were aware of, Tigo Money and the Tower business. And we continue to just be quite frankly the better gold standard in terms of ESG in a region. And our great place to work recognition demonstrates that. So pretty much on track despite a much harder macro environment. Thanks for joining today.