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Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 26, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thanks for taking the time to connect to our Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. This event is being recorded. Our speakers today will be our CEO, Mauricio Ramos; and our CFO, Sheldon Bruha; and our President and COO, Maxime Lombardini. And following their prepared remarks, we will have a Q&A session. By now, you should have received a copy of our earnings release, which is available on our website, along with the slides that we will be referencing during today's presentation. Now if you please turn to Slide 2, you can see our Safe Harbor disclosure. We will be making forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties and could have a material impact on our results. We will also be referring to many non-IFRS metrics throughout this presentation. And we define these metrics on Slide 3, where you can also find reconciliation tables in the back of our earnings release and on our website. With those disclaimers out of the way, let me turn the call over to our CEO, Mauricio Ramos.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. As usual, I will go over the highlights of the quarter and Sheldon will discuss the financials. And finally, Maxime, our new President and COO will say a few words before we take your questions. Let's start on Slide 5 with a recap of our four key priorities for 2023 and our progress to-date. We'll go into more detail on each of these points in the next several slides. But here are the key highlights. First, the beginning of the year, we set out to dramatically improve the profitability of our operation in Colombia. By simplifying the business by bringing increased discipline on capital allocation, and around pricing for our services. You can see the results of these efforts starting to pay off in this third quarter. Our quarter in Colombia had very strongly EBITDA and OCF growth. And we're not done yet. We have now agreed with our partner to inject additional equity capital into the business in Colombia. So, we can focus now on executing on the rest of the plan, which includes continued mobile growth, further cost discipline and as you know, some much needed in organic solution. Second in Guatemala, we are creating the conditions for a healthy and very sustainable long-term industry structure. In the last six months, we took part in two transparent and successful spectrum auctions in, which both players were able to acquire all of the spectrum that was offered by the government. These were the country's two first auctions in more than 15 years. As a result, both competitor's now similar and much larger amounts of spectrum within the conditions are now set to return to a more rational pricing environment. Third, we continue to improve our operational efficiency…

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Thank you, Mauricio. Before we review the financials let me quickly recap the macro context on Slide 11. As you can see on the slide, inflation across most of our markets has followed closely the trend we've seen in the U.S. with inflation back to a more reasonable level of around 4%, with the exception of Colombia, where inflation is still in the double-digits. The good news though, is that the Colombian peso was strengthened significantly this year. And in fact, you will see that FX with a small tailwind for us during Q3. And in terms of economic activity, our markets are generally proving quite resilient with some countries like Panama and Paraguay expected to grow real GDP in the range of 4% to 5% this year. Now, let's look at our Q3 performance beginning on Slide 12. Service revenue was $1.32 billion in the quarter, which is up 3.2% on a reported basis from $1.28 billion a year ago. For the first time more than a year, our service revenue has benefited from favorable FX trends this quarter, primarily due to the Colombian peso, as I just mentioned, excluded the impact of FX organic growth was 1.8% in the third quarter, very similar to the growth we reported in Q2. Our mobile business continues to perform well and accounted for nearly all of the growth in the quarter. Meanwhile, our fixed businesses were flat and this is consistent with our broader capital allocation strategy over the past year, as I'll discuss later. Drilling down further on Slide 13, to the service revenue by country. As you can see, most of the countries experienced positive service revenue growth in the quarter. The two exceptions were Guatemala, which Mauricio already discussed, and Bolivia, which was down less than 1% in…

Maxime Lombardini

Management

Thank you, Sheldon. It is my pleasure to be here today. As you may know, I joined the company on the 1st of September, so little less than two months ago. And this time of year, the company begins planning the budget for next year. And this has given me the perfect opportunity to interact with each of the country teams and with the leadership teams in Miami and Luxembourg. I have also had the opportunity to travel in our three biggest country of operations, Guatemala, Colombia and Panama, and I have more visits than before year end. As you can imagine, I'm still learning about the company. But today, I can share some of my first impressions on my priorities. Firstly, TIGO is an incredible company with a strong brand and market leadership position, run by a talented team, a team with a strong culture, and can do attitude, ready to take on any challenge when the target is clear. But we do business in countries with volatile macroeconomic and political environments, but we do not generate enough cash. This means that we must derisk the company by operating efficiently and with lower leverage. And we must ensure that the business can generate much higher equity free cash flow every year. With that in mind, one of my first priorities has been to significantly expand the push on costs. We started immediately in September by decreasing drastically, [HQ] costs in Miami. And currently, as part of the budget process, I am challenging each country team on the costs and CapEx. On a day-to-day basis, I am personally reviewing each purchase order and every dollar that we spend. So short-term, a strong focused on cost control is the clear priority. And as we strive to deliver on the free cash flow target that we are iterating today. I will be equally focused on making sure that we capture the long-term revenue growth opportunity with the right investments that are necessary to provide the excellent experience that your customers have come to expect. And we'll report back to you next quarter on our progress with more details.

Operator

Operator

Thank you Maxime. With that we're going to now go into the Q&A session. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please email us at investors@millicom.com. We'll take the first question from Oscar Ronnkvist from ABG. Oscar, the line is yours.

Oscar Ronnkvist

Analyst

Thank you. And good morning, even though it's in the middle of the day for me in Stockholm so just two questions. That's okay, please, just first one on Guatemala, you say that the signs of improvement, or an improving market is visible? So how should we think about timing? Your main at around 1% to 2% decline in service revenue like last few quarters? So just wanted to get a sense of if you should see that delta improving already in Q4 or if you expect us to take a bit longer. My second question is just on CapEx. I think you have been around $180 million each quarter for the last three months. And you say that, I mean, you're holding back a bit on home, right? And then also you're looking at efficiency. So just the $180 million figure over the last three quarters. I guess that that's a bit low maybe on the sort of run rate on an annualized basis. Just if you could elaborate on the timing or any quantification of the new run rate please? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

All right. Hello, Oscar and welcome. Thanks for joining us today. I'll take the first one on Guate, timing et cetera and the market and I'll give Sheldon a little bit of time to prepare some numbers for you on the CapEx question. On Guate I think we've played it really, really well. And the timing, which is the core of your question is happening, pretty much than we expected it would happen. And with that I'll give you some color. As you'll recall, over the last year or so, we've faced a tremendous amount of competitive pressure on prepaid. We set out to basically hold our market share position, a very strong market share position, and we've been able to do that not without some pain on the revenue for sure, but certainly holding on to our market share and our subscriber base. And we did that knowing that we could and we would revamp - re-stabilize both the spectrum position and the network position. And we have done that that was the long game. That was the long strategy that we were playing. And over the course of the quarters this year, we have seen that play out two consecutive spectrum auctions, we no longer have any network disadvantage. We no longer have any services advantage, we no longer have any spectrum disadvantage. So quite frankly, we're playing the long game. And it has worked out as we expected it would. Subsequently to that, we took a price increase on prepaid to a percentage of the prepaid base in need to [learn] September, so you actually see it in the quarterly numbers yet. But as we move forward, this was a timing that we were expecting strong network positions, strong spectrum position, so that we could now focus on the commercial actions. So far as I said, we are cautiously optimistic, cannot guarantee ever and ever guarantee that price increases will stick. But we're certainly playing a cautious well played in game here. So the answer to your question is this, things have been playing out as we expected, it would and we wanted to play them out. We're also just mathematically laughing pretty much the initial effects of the push on competition. But we are playing the long game here, Oscar. And that's why we use the team cautiously optimistic, things are better in the market or rational in the market, as they are compared to what they were before. But we're playing the long game. And we're playing a very strategic game here. So, we're cautiously optimistic. Going into Q4, just to manage your expectations. Remember, we had a very good Q4 last year, because of the World Cup that we had. So, we're not going to have that this year. So again, long-term mean you know, Q4 will have some difficult comps vis-à-vis the World Cup. Did I miss anything guys?

Sheldon Bruha

Management

I think Oscar, we should also just flag that there's been some significant protests in the street in Guatemala these last several weeks since the presidential election. So that has created a little bit of a disruption in terms of economic activity. But new President takes office in early January. So that could continue for some time. But it's still a little too early to know what kind of impacts that might have.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Yes, Guatemala has a very lengthy timeframe in between elections and actual handover is over six months. So that's created a little bit of political turmoil there. So come January, hopefully, that things will be on the quiet side politically.

Oscar Ronnkvist

Analyst

That's it.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Okay. On the CapEx question you had, look, I mentioned a lot and in the presentation around what was driving some of the reductions in CapEx this year, I mean, really, around really around, basically, you know, majority of CapEx decline really related to markets, Colombia and Bolivia, where we I think it's absolutely appropriate some steps were taken in terms of discipline around our home spend, given the situations in both those countries. But look and - going forward. I would say, you would have heard kind of in Maxime's comments. In addition to the things that's been happening this year, we are being very disciplined, and since scrutinizing sort of CapEx spend across the business. I would not expect CapEx spends to be higher than what you're seeing, right now, as we go into 2024. I would expect us to be - you'd be [suddenly] lower than those levels on a going forward basis. So that's how dressing sort of where we see the trending is going it's, levels lower than what you're seeing currently.

Oscar Ronnkvist

Analyst

Understood. Thank you very much.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Thank you, Oscar.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Next, we're going to go to Phani Kanumuri from HSBC. Phani, the line is yours.

Phani Kanumuri

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, everyone, for taking my questions. My first question is on Colombia. I seem to have had a good margin [exhibition] this quarter. How sustainable is the margin equation? And once you complete project Everest, they do expect the margins to print in Colombia. And again, the second question is again, Colombia. You had a recent equity infusion into Colombia. Do you see any potential equity infusions in 2024, or 2025 in Colombia?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

I'll take the first one and perhaps a little bit of the second one and as always give Sheldon a little bit of time to get the numbers right. So the things Phani that have been driving our record margins in Colombia this quarter are a combination of activities. First, as you recall, was a ton of network investment and commercial expansion. That happened in the years prior. Right after we had bought 700 megahertz spectrum that's behind us. So, now we are more on the efficiency phase of those network investments or commercial expansions. The second element is, as you know, mobile is a game of scale, and we have been gaining scale particularly postpaid in Colombia. So obviously, that helps the margin on a fixed cost base business. The third element in Colombia is project Everest, phase 1 of project Everest, which we started early on this year. And as which we'll be talking, there's a phase 2 that will help contain sustainability on that margin expansion going forward. The fourth element is that there's been I'll use these words with a degree of cautiousness more price rationality in the market in the last few quarters. And particularly, we've been able to sustain or drive, our service revenue and postpaid both on the volume and on our phones as well. And also, we've been very, very disciplined on the home businesses. We are not [playing] during the call, keeping prices up, [charging] installation and if need be sacrificing volume over profitability. And that's what you'll see in the results. Going forward, profitability will also be enhanced by mobile network, and then spectrum contribution agreement that we talked about in the prior quarter, and this quarter. And all of this combined, lead to the one single focus that we have in Colombia, which is to make Colombia equity free cash flow policy. As you recall, me saying a number of times, it's the only operation in the portfolio, that has not been equity, free cash flow, and our drive has been to make up this as equity free cash flow. And I'll tell you - the risk of not giving you specifics, that we're really focused on making that happen as soon as possible. And that gives you an idea as to why we're driving hard with the expectation of not having any additional equity contribution going forward. And with that, I'll hand it over to Sheldon.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Mauricio, you really hit the key points. And I think EBITDA that particular and EBITDA margins are important metrics to be tracking, but most importantly, and more importantly, it's the equity free cash flow performance, we're trying to drive out of that business and getting that business to equity, free cash flow, breakeven, first initially and ultimately, equity free cash flow positive. And of course, that once that's achieved, that's going to start to address your second part of question that will more capital be needed from the shareholders? I mean, the answer would be no, once we get to that business, the equity free cash flow positive. So that's where the focus is. Look, I think we're going to make a lot of progress on that in 2024. In terms of achieving that objective, and - that's kind of where the focus is right now for that business.

Phani Kanumuri

Analyst

So in the base case scenario, vendor is expect to achieve a kind of breakeven at least a broad timeline for Colombia?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

There's this thing that happens on a yearly basis called the budget, right? That's all I'll say. That's a normal answer Phani.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

As soon as we possibly can, there's nothing. You can just imagine how focused we are on this factory, right? As soon as we can. We've done everything in Colombia. Again, back to the Guatemala question stable. This is the game we're playing with a single objective, which is to get Colombia record cash flow positive as soon as possible. And just about every action has been driven in that direction. We put Everest phase 1 early on in Colombia in this year, we're obviously focused on Colombia for phase 2 of Everest and all you can take away from without forcing us into specifics on guidance is that we're very focused on making Colombia equity free cash flow.

Phani Kanumuri

Analyst

Okay, sure. Thanks a lot for that.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Phani. All right. Next, we're going to Marcelo Santos from JPMorgan.

Marcelo Santos

Analyst

Hi. Hello. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first question is just if you had any update on to [money] strategic alternatives. So you disclose that in the Investor Day so we just wanted to know how this is going. And the second question is actually for Maxime. You mentioned that you're waiting for the right investments to capture long-term revenue growth opportunities. Could you expand a bit on what do you see as the main long-term revenue growth opportunities. If you could give some cover would be great.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

All right, I'll take the first one and give Maxime a little bit of time to prepare a couple of brilliant ideas there for sure. So listen on Tigo money, we continue to grow the business quite positively, geographically, as you may recall, we're very strong in Paraguay, very strong in Bolivia. We've we launched this year in Guatemala, Tigo money existed in Guatemala, but it didn't have the full suite of products in there. So, we launched in Guatemala. We've also attained licenses and launched in Panama. And we're happy with the progress that we're making and operationally. Our second area of focus is making sure that we complete the delivery and implementation of - the full suite of the service offering. So that Wallet [application], but also continue to visit merchant community, and also begin piloting, which successfully delivery in Bolivia and also in Guatemala. And we continue to find very important ways of meeting the telecom business worked really closely with the fintech business, in the eyes of the consumer, which we think is a win-win for everybody. And we're also now beyond this investment phase that we put for the last couple of years very focused and going back to our Haskell instances for 2024 or making sure that Tigo money is with all of these investments and launches behind it all of the [indiscernible] breakeven. We're very happy with that result which leaves us then with plenty of flexibility to then figure out in these very difficult fintech markets, Marcelo? When is the best time to maximize? And how is the best time to maximize as the value of that asset? And that is the punchline to your question. And Maxime, show time for you.

Maxime Lombardini

Management

Thank you. Good morning and good afternoon. Thank you, Marcelo for your question. I joined the company something like seven weeks ago. So it's a bit early to describe a full strategy for the future. I wanted to say with a few words about the future, is that the future of a company cannot be only on cost cutting, cost cutting today are to needs to be back to cash generation, but that's not the sole project for the company. So, we are working a lot also on CapEx optimization, meaning wealth we invest properly in mobile densification coverage, and more importantly, probably where to invest and what to do on home, where you know, the machine are a bit [stretched]. So those, I would say, we probably come a little bit more next quarter, but today, it's a bit, it's a bit too early. And then there are many, many other options within each one of the other geography where are the home business as you can see, there are many networks other building and probably intelligent solution that could be worked on.

Marcelo Santos

Analyst

Wonderful. Thank you very much for the answers.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Marcelo. So next we're going to go to a Stefan Gauffin of DNB Markets. Stefan, you're on mute, I believe.

Stefan Gauffin

Analyst

So can you hear me now?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Oh, yes.

Stefan Gauffin

Analyst

Yes. Great. So a couple of questions. First on the network, JV with Telefonica in Colombia. If you can somehow quantify what kind of savings you could get from that on both OpEx and CapEx and when those can materialize. And secondly, question for Maxime. You mentioned in your remarks that given volatility in these markets, you believe the leverage is a bit high, which I think all of us agree to. But now given these strategic initiatives with the sale of Lati, et cetera. So my question is, where, would you see leverage to go to be comfortable, if it's totally preferred to paydown debt rather than have some sort of shareholder remuneration from sale of that et cetera? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Hi Stefan, good to see you. As always you to great questions, I'll take the first one on the network JV briefly. And then I'll hand over the second one if it's okay to deal to our CFO, Sheldon. So that he can provide you with a full institutional, I got to do this in my role as I could see your smile as Interim Chair, so that we provide you with a full institutional view on leverage from the Board. On the network JV, I think the two key areas without our ability to give you specific details, obviously, there is the OpEx and CapEx savings or branding a single network, right, that's the nature of a network JV on mobile. And in addition to that, there is the synergies of running a single pool of spectrum. And this is important, particularly in Colombia, because the cost of spectrum in Colombia is significantly higher than in most other regions. So the ability to run not only a single network from the CapEx and OpEx side, so also in full your network is an important part of the savings from that JV. And on the question of leverage, you will be happily reassured that we have coincidence on our targets, institutionally. Sheldon?

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Sure on average, I think, again, I'm very consistent what we said before Stefan on this point in our intermediate target remains two and a half times EBITDA. We haven't made any progress towards that objective this year, for a variety of reasons, some of them are in our control, some that, even the work, but we've got several one offs, this period, things that unusual items, but also things that we're doing and driving the business around the severance costs. Look, we see us making a lot of progress next year on this leverage, on this leverage reduction I mean, next year is going to be a big year for us for cash flow generation, and we say that is going to be the highest of the three years in our three year targets, in terms of what we're going to be delivering. It's also going to be sort of cleaner of a lot of the one-off charges we've been taking, particularly this year, with regard to the severance charges. I will point out, we're expecting, I think you've heard in my prepared remarks more severance charges in Q4, as we complete the budgeting processes and go to the country. So, there will be sizable charges again, which [tremendous] will be accruing in 2024. And currently this year, there's kind of a lot of unusual in this a little bit around FX, that's also, you know, ticked our leverage up a bit higher. In particular, Colombia has appreciated from a currency standpoint, now, a lot of that appreciations happened more recently. And so, in terms of the benefit on EBITDA, that hasn't really slowed through LTM EBITDA last 12 months EBITDA, but it has hit us pretty quickly on market-to-market, the Colombian debts what I'm on a higher basis, on the debt situation. So that should roll off, assuming that trends kind of remain constant on the currency that should also benefit us into 2024. So, we're going to be making progress on the deleveraging. Certainly, in 2024. We told you on a previous call that, we expect to get to that two and a half times level, and by 2026, one year later than the previous given some of the adjustments, we've made our equity free cash flow. But look, as we're going to make a lot of progress on that, and really see me in full progress in 2024. As it pertains to Lati in short - I think they I think we're going to kind of hold off and sort of talking about proceeds in Lati until we have proceeds from Lati, right, so that we're launching a process and we'll have to see how that process, evolves in terms of in terms of what we were able to achieve. And then we'll assess the situation at that point in time and think in terms of what the best way to allocate those proceeds.

Stefan Gauffin

Analyst

Yes, yes. Agree. Better to wait until they're very soft before we sell the skin.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

That sounds like the standard way of saying is their priority remains to [reduce average]. That's the short answer.

Operator

Operator

So thank you, Stefan. So next we'll go to Eduardo Nieto of JPMorgan. Eduardo?

Eduardo Nieto

Analyst

Yes, thank you guys. So part of my question was already answered, but wanted to follow-up on the capital allocation strategies. Moody's recently put you on a negative watch, basically, because of Chinese in Colombia, but also because of high leverage and governance concerns potentially having more aggressive financial policies. You partly addressed that, but curious on what your plan is to address those concerns about the downgrade. And my second question would be in Colombia. In terms of the 5G option, obviously, I'm just curious about how you will translate the EBITDA performance into cash flows and how you expect spectrum costs and all those items to behave going forward. If you see any other opportunities, we talked about inorganic solutions, securities, if you can give any more color on that?

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Yes, listen on the part in light of that that has a little bit of a noise on Colombia, as you very well know, there was just a lot of noise there. But the reality is we came out of that process, with a well-capitalized business, a business that has expanding margins, revenue growth, OCF growth, and has, as we discussed earlier, a significant focus on driving the business towards being equity free cash flow positive as soon as we can. So, I think there was a lot of noise there. But the reality is the business in Colombia is improving significantly, at all levels, including a strategic optionality going forward. And as that relates to the group, but we discussed, and I'll hand it over the Sheldon for additional. Our focus remains on cash flow generation next year, as we have said, a number of times, and we'll repeat that today. We think 2024 is the year of our cash flow. And with that, I think we will reiterate our focus on use of average and this [number] of times. By GM, Colombia, we're reviewing the terms they just came up last night, obviously, we've been very involved in the process, we understand a lot of it. But I rather you know, answer that question, once we have full information on exactly what the details of that, it's an ongoing process and those processes do tend to move around and shift around as they are being finalized with the authorities. Sheldon anything?

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Well, our next question would add, I think in terms of terms of the Moody's still, concerns that they're highlighted, I think are the exact items that we probably have as our four priorities in terms of what we're addressing as a company. So, we need to deliver stronger cash flow, we believe next year, and [shelter] deleveraging, we believe next year is going to be a big year for us on that front. And I go a long way towards addressing a lot of things that you guys have been highlighting to us at Moody's has been highlighting to us. So I think we've kind of highlighted exactly where, what we expect, we expect from a cash flow perspective and deleveraging perspective. And I think now we just need to deliver on that and to address those issues.

Eduardo Nieto

Analyst

Understood. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Eduardo. And next up, I think we have [Andre Salas from UBS] on the line. Andre, are you there?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Yes, everyone. Sorry about my camera there is being technical difficulties to make it work. Sorry. So hi, everyone. First of all, thanks for the presentation. And for taking my question here. Actually, I have two on my end. The first one is more like on a cash flow basis with soft one contribution year of working capital to free cash flow this quarter. Could you please give us a little more color on that what has driven this positive impact in this, we should expect the same trend to go in the following quarters. And the second. The second question is regarding a broad timeline year in Guatemala business. So when we expect that the improved spectral capabilities that you now have, which translates into better efficiency, and if it could mean investments here in the country in the upcoming quarters. There'll be [optimist]? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

I'll be brief on number two, and give Sheldon a little time to look up the numbers in detail. We've been working as I said, for the long run, long game as I described, I'm not ready for question on Guatemala. So we were readying up the network and getting ready for the great news of the new spectrum pretty quickly. So a lot of that has been done. And as a result of that, we have started subsequent commercial activities, as I said on September the 18th. So now really, it comes down to the marketplace Andre and standardization of the commercial activities in the marketplace. And as I eluded also some of the political last few weeks issues also the satellites. So it's less of a network and it's an information or more like commercial standardization now going forward. And as I said earlier, we took out prepaid price increase. We're optimistic about it, and commercially we're cautiously optimistic us to follow through on that one. Sheldon?

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Sure. On the equity free cash flow performance for this quarter. I mean, look, I mean, you highlighted working capital. I mean I would highlight, I think strong performance across the board. I mean, OCF was a big contributor to us this quarter, in terms of driving equity, free cash flow. Taxes, I think was a contributor for us in terms of driving equity, free cash flow this quarter. Interest costs actually was not, as we've been talking just some of the higher interest rate environment that some of our countries. Working capital contributed as well. But to some degree, a couple items I would highlight there for you, though, we took we took our severance provisions, here about $22 million, this quarter, that's going to be paid in future quarters. Right. So that's probably that's one of the contributors to working capital benefit, the same on this legal provision we took in Colombia that was cashed out these periods. So that was also a contributor to working capital, we did have a large B2B project in Panama, that we were - that benefited us a bit on working capital, sort of, the timing sort of payments received versus payments going out to some subcontractors, and some of the equipment providers who are providing some of the information or some of the aspects of that project. So that benefit us a little bit as well on working capital. Those are probably the key items I would highlight. But look, I think was it was a good quarter, overall, from equity, free cash flow. I was cautious in terms of making sure you're happy in terms of forward-looking. What I did pull out and highlight a few items on a forward-looking basis on equity free cash flow, particularly spectrum in Q4, which is going to be a big uptick for us. We highlighted in June, in terms of full year perspective of higher spectrum costs this year, but particularly it's going to be pronounced in Q4 for us this year on the spectrum costs, as well and just paying for some of the items that we took - we booked here from a service perspective this quarter, as well as what we expect to be booking next quarter.

Operator

Operator

All right, thank you Andre.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you. Again, sorry, once again for the camera.

Operator

Operator

No worries. Thank you, Andre. All right, so next, we'll take our last question from Fredrik Lithell from Handelsbanken. Fredrik, good to see you.

Fredrik Lithell

Analyst

Good to see you. Thank you very much. Thank you for taking my questions as well. Maybe just a little bit of a housekeeping. Sheldon, you. I think you mentioned earlier about severance costs. Also in Q4, was that correctly understood? Or did we see a peak here in Q3 on severance costs? That's the first one really. The second is, is on the Everest one, two, and possibly number three, and enlargement of all sort of that project as well. I'm just curious to get an elaboration on how deep you can cut in cost, before it starts to hamper your ability to push growth. At the same time, I'm just curious how you balance that going forward. So you don't get four scores on customer care, or you're not setting up the next base station, whatever it might be, I'm just curious to have a sort of reasoning around that balance would be interesting to hear.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Yes, I'll start with a second one, obviously, Fredrik will be very, very careful. Very, very consensus. And obviously, we start with the areas that are less revenue generated and protect those definitely as part of the process. So you can rest assure that we are surgical in our approach, but everything gets reviewed with a payback analysis. And then we certainly protect the areas that are long-term revenue generating as part of the process. But there is room to be more and more efficient. The ambition on Everest was always significantly high. And we're emboldened and supported by our new largest shareholder to take that opportunity. And as we've been discussing some of the markets that are part of the question. We should also highlight that part of the reason why we see a path to better control in many of those markets, is because we see efficiencies, significant efficiencies there at all levels, as well. So that's the full answer to your question. Sheldon?

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Yes, I would say I mean, in addition to that Fredrik, I think for this cost, we're trying to take complexity out of the business, and as application, which I think quite frankly, it can be beneficial from a customer perspective, as well as fewer product offerings, fewer complications in terms of how they interact with us, et cetera. So, some of the cost saving they are actually hopefully, you'll be, I would expect the beneficial as well to the top line not just to, sort of cut. If you're trying to push us towards that we're cutting and muscle out of the business. And quite frankly, as we're trying to improve the way we operate as a company. In terms of additional severance costs I mean, yes, we're going as I alluded to it we are going through our budgeting process right now. And we've taken the actions of the headquarters this quarter in terms of the space to, we're finalizing our plans for the country we see here, as we finalize the budgeting, and there will be charges here in Q4, related to that. We're not, going to give you the size and guide for that at this point in time, there will be 10s of millions of dollars of severance costs I would expect in Q4. And we'll be giving you much more color on that once we complete our budgeting process here - and the full year results in February.

Fredrik Lithell

Analyst

Perfect, thank you very much.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

And consistent with that project, you should assume that the 135 million number will also increase commensurately.

Fredrik Lithell

Analyst

Right. Thank you, Mauricio.

Operator

Operator

All right. Okay, thank you very much, Fredrik. So I think that wraps up the Q&A session. Mauricio, back to you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Yes, just want to give you the 32nd wrap ups to make sure that the big points are clear. And they should be pretty obvious on our call today, Colombia is going well and it's improving its profitability very quickly. It is now better capitalized. And we have received approval for merging our mobile network and spectrum positions in Colombia. Tons of work in Colombia, and that work is in progress. But we made a lot of progress this quarter, and we're heading in the right direction, as we alluded during the call with a clear objective ahead of us. In Guatemala, as you have heard of us for a number of quarters our market leadership has been sustained, spectrum positions have now been equalized. So, we no longer have a spectrum or a level of disadvantage, and we're putting that to use. And there are initial signs of a healthy environment as to some price increases in prepaid in mid-September. So as I said, we're cautiously optimistic in Guatemala. And as you heard our cost savings and our ambitions on efficiency have been increased with a broader phase 2 to a project Everest. And most importantly, all of these efforts are aimed at a single thing which we have alluded to before. And that is to make 2024 the year of our strongest natural delivery. So hopefully those points are clear. And thank you for joining us today.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Thank you.