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Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 27, 2024

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Transcript

Michel Morin

Management

Hello, everyone and welcome to our Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Call. This event is being recorded. Our speakers today will be our CEO, Mauricio Ramos; our President & COO, Maxime Lombardini; and our CFO Sheldon Bruha. The slides for today's presentation are available on our website, along with the earnings release and our financial statements. Now, please turn to Slide 2 for the safe harbor disclosure. We will be making forward-looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties and could have a material impact on our results. And on Slide 3, we define the non-IFRS metrics that we will reference throughout the presentation, and you can find reconciliation tables in the back of our earnings release and on our website. With those disclaimers out of the way, let me turn the call over to our CEO, Mauricio Ramos.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. As you likely recall, we set four key priorities at the beginning of 2023. We will update you in detail on each of these priorities in the next several slides, but here are the key highlights. First, we continue to make very meaningful strides in executing Project Everest to improve our operational efficiency across the business. During the fourth quarter, we implemented Phase 2 of the project in each of the nine countries where we operate. The headline is that we are exceeding our own expectations for cost savings. Second, in Colombia, the strategy we laid out some years ago and our increased focus on driving profitability are now really paying off in a combined manner. EBITDA was up more than 24% year-on-year, excluding severance, and the margin reached 38%, which is another record for this business. This, even as we continue to build our mobile subscriber base. We are achieving this while also optimizing our CapEx because we are now harvesting the very significant investments we have made in Colombia over the past several years. As I told you during our Q3 call, we're not done yet in improving Colombia. In fact, our performance in Q4 does not yet reflect the additional actions we have taken in the quarter and in January of this year. So stay tuned for more on Colombia. Third, in Guatemala, the strategic initiatives we put in place over the past couple of years to protect our business are also now paying off. During Q4, we were able to build on the progress we made throughout the year, and we had strong prepaid service revenue growth on a sequential basis compared to Q3, much higher than what we have seen in the last few…

Maxime Lombardini

Management

Thank you, Mauricio and hello, everyone. As many of you recall, Millicom began implementing its efficiency program at the beginning of 2023, and initially communicated an ambition of achieving run rate savings of more than $100 million by year end 2024. Shortly after I joined the company in early September, we increased the scope of Phase 2 of the program, to include deeper headcount reductions and cost savings initiatives in our centralized functions. During Q4, we extended Phase 2 to each one of our country operations, unlocking total savings of more than $250 million. And it is important to emphasize that we have already implemented a vast majority of the initiatives that are needed to deliver those savings this year. So, the achievability of our targeted savings is not only largely in our control, but also already in the bank. You can start to see some of these savings in our Q4 results with EBITDA excluding severance reaching almost $600 million, which is a record high for the company. And I'm pleased to tell you today that we are off to an excellent start in the first two months of the year on both service revenue and profitability. On this slide, we have summarized for you the most important action that we have taken, and the areas where we have focused our efforts. I won't discuss of each points, but suffice to say that the efficiency program is not just about reducing headcount. Yes, Headcount is an important contributor and close to 5,000 employees left the group. But as I told you on the Q3 call, we have been reviewing all of our spending. Strong control on OpEx, employee recurring cost, contents, external services, real estate optimization, IT and network OpEx, and a huge work on optimizing CapEx has been done too. We invest where and when it has a strong impact on quality and sales. This cost control is backed by an ambitious simplification plan. We are simplifying the legacy of our portfolio and streamlining the IT to make it more flexible and less expensive. And even though we are still in February, I'm already beginning to work with the teams to identify the next round of opportunities that will allow us to reduce costs further in 2025, without sacrificing any of the investments that are needed to grow our customer base and revenues, and sustain our network quality and market leadership. And one more thing. Being back to profitability is a good news for the shareholders, but it is important for the employees and managers too. I feel a strong support to the strategy. Mauricio, back to you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Thank you, Maxime. I want to recognize and thank both you and Atlas for helping us take Project Everest, and please do excuse the pun, into new heights. Atlas has helped make the project far more ambitious, its reach wider, and its execution faster, and your leadership in execution, Maxime, has been fantastic. Now, let's look at Colombia in more detail on Slide 7. As I told you a few moments ago, our plan to improve profitability in our second largest country operation is really beginning to pay off. EBITDA is up more than 24% year-on-year excluding severance, thanks to record margins. And as Maxime mentioned, we optimized CapEx and this drove a very strong increase in OCF in 2023. And we have achieved this while maintaining strong commercial momentum in our mobile and B2B businesses. And we also saw improving trends in our own business during the fourth quarter, even though we continue to remain very disciplined in Colombia. The point we're making is that we're beginning to harvest the very significant strategic decisions and investments that we have made in Colombia the past several years, including the following: First, we bought and renewed spectrum that has allowed us to add coverage and capacity on our mobile network. This has led to a big improvement in customer experience, and it has also helped to strengthen our brand, and we have gained market share despite the arrival of a new and disruptive entrant in the marketplace. The strategic move and its associated investment wave started in 2020 during the pandemic, and it is now winding down. Second, over these years, we have deployed tens of thousands of kilometers of fiber. We built state-of-the-art data centers and we retooled our sales force to capture our share of the rapid growth we're…

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Thank you, Mauricio. Now, let's look at our Q4 financial performance beginning on Slide 12. Service revenue was $1.38 billion in the quarter, which was up from $1.28 billion a year ago. Excluding the impact of FX, organic growth was 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Our mobile businesses have low single digits, while fixed and other services grew mid-single digits. The faster growth in fixed largely reflects the contribution of large B2B contracts during the quarter. B2B, which includes mobile, fixed, and digital services, grew at 19.6%, our strongest growth rate in recent years. Going down further on Slide 13 for the service revenue by country, Guatemala declined 2.3%, mainly due to the benefit of the World Cup in Q4 of 2022. Excluding this effect, the service revenue decline narrowed to 0.5% versus last year, the second consecutive quarter of improving revenue trends. Columbia's service revenue grew 3.4% in local currency as mid-single-digit growth in mobile, and high-single-digit growth in B2B more than offset the decline in home. Panama's service revenue grew 18.9%, fueled by large B2B contracts, and the strong growth in mobile. Bolivia's service revenue grew 0.8% with growth in mobile and B2B offset by a decline in home, where we continue to prioritize price discipline. This was the first positive quarterly service revenue growth in five quarters as we have now fully lapped the prepaid data regulatory impact from August of last year. Paraguay service revenue grew 5% in local currency, with all three business units contributing. This rounded off a very strong year for this business in which service revenue grew 7% in 2023. Finally, our remaining markets in Central America performed reasonably well. El Salvador performance was flat, but this compares against a robust performance in Q4 of 2022. Okay. Turning to EBITDA on Slide…

A - Michel Morin

Operator

Thank you, Sheldon. We'll now begin the Q&A session. And as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please let us know by emailing us at investors@millicom.com, and we will add you to the queue. Our first question is coming from Marcelo Santos at JP Morgan. Marcelo. Line is yours.

Marcelo Santos

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning to all. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask two. The first is regarding the outlook for Colombia margins. So you reached a new record. What's the ambition here? And aren't margins a bit abnormally low because you're not adding so much broadband adds? So how -- what's the impact of your more like -- I imagine in the future you want to have more adds. So, if you were back to the normal pace of ads, what would be the impact of margins? And the second question is, on Project Everest, I imagine part of those costs were already -- cost savings were already reflected on 2023 numbers. So, what's the incremental cost saving of 2024 versus 2023? Understand there's a run rate, but what should we see as incremental savings versus what was already reported in the year? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Thank you, Marcelo. As usual, let me take Colombia a little bit big picture first, and the outlook for Colombia, and then of course, I'll hand it over to a combination of Sheldon and Maxime, who can give you the operational CapEx and financial details around Project Everest. Listen, on Colombia, the outlook has dramatically improved since back in the summer, when we were dealing with a capital infusion, and a ton of uncertainty around whether we will be able to pull together or not the final details around the combination of our network with Telefonica. Over the last couple of years, as you know, we've been able to invest in that 700-megahertz network, which has proved to be phenomenal for us to gain mobile market share volume. Pricing has become more stable as the new incumbent has realized that that is a better strategy for them to grow revenue in the marketplace. And of course, we've put a joint network with Telefonica that has allowed us to buy spectrum together. So, you're already beginning to see the improvements on Columbia. All of these combined a more rational pricing market, and our ability to combine network and spectrum with Telefonica, the pickup in volume that we have had as a result of the 700 megahertz, and now significant savings from Everest, and efficiencies coming from Everest, make the outlook for Colombia quite positive. And that's why you heard us say during the call that we believe Colombia going forward can deliver a lot more, and as a matter of fact, it's a country, as you heard us say many, many times, that was not making equity free cash flow. And in 2024, we're aiming for breakeven or positive and that makes it the largest contributor to our equity free cash flow swing. Now, Everest, in its revamped, strengthened form also had an impact in Colombia, and I'll hand it over to Sheldon and Maxime to give you more details.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Well, I can make a few comments just on Columbia first of all, look, you would have seen in our subsequent events of our earnings release that we had also just implemented a new voluntary separation plan in Colombia here in the -- just launched in January. We've occurred about $17 million of costs related to that so far that's ongoing, but look, I think what I'm highlighting there is that just builds in extra cushion here for us on margin on that business to absorb things like you're saying if we accelerate more on the home side. So, I do feel like, that's the -- that severance program or that separation program plus other initiatives going in place in terms of simplification and other things we're trying to do around the business do provide us here some flexibility and buffer here to absorb on the margin side -- to absorb and pick up on the home. On Everest, in terms of how we're exiting the year, look, we're not being sort of specific maybe as we had been on some of the other programs. I would just highlight the following. I think what's important to highlight is, is really where we're exiting the year on an EBITDA basis from -- on a run rate. You can see if you add back the severance charges that we had here in Q4 of about $42 million, our EBITDA for the quarter was just under $600 million, like $599 million. That's a good reflection of sort of -- of kind of the run rate of the business as we're exiting the year was $2.4 billion on a run rate basis, we annualized that. That does not reflect all of the opportunities yet that we're -- that we still have to implement and we did mention a lot of that. A lot of those opportunities have been implemented, but there's still some stuff to come, the Columbia one which I just mentioned. So, I'll expect to see further opportunity on -- from Everest rolling into the numbers in 2024 to benefit the EBITDA line as well service revenue growth, which we'll anticipate as well for the business.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Okay. Maxime, anything to add to that?

Maxime Lombardini

Management

I just can add a few comments just to explain why we increased the run rate saving on Project Everest. I joined the company in September. We started immediately with the team to reduce the headcount at the headquarter, and then we increased the scope of this headcount reduction, but as you can imagine, we cannot execute everything immediately. So, most of it have been done during the Q4, but part of it is still ongoing. That is the first point. The second point is that there were many contracts with commitment till the end of 2023 that we've cut, but the full effect will come later -- will come in 2024 including important contents -- contracts and subcontractors. All the effects of the simplification of the way we work, the way we organize the company, the process will take full effect in 2024 and many other, I would say, smaller items such as the way we organize advertising, the way we manage the roaming, the way we optimize the real estate, everything has been dealt during the end of 2023, but you will see the full effect in 2024. That is the reason why the run rate saving. We are quite comfortable with the figures that we've disclosed because most of them are already, as we said, in the bank, and we have still room for maneuver.

Marcelo Santos

Analyst

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Overall, Marcelo, it feels like Colombia is now well-understood and under control. Pricing is more stable. We got network and capital synergies, and spectrum renegotiations are behind us. We have the ability to work on network spectrum with Telefonica. So it really is a more positive outlook on Colombia overall.

Michel Morin

Management

Thanks, Marcelo. Next, we're going to go to Phani Kanumuri at HSBC. Phani, the line is yours.

Phani Kanumuri

Analyst

Thanks, everyone, for taking my question. So, the first one is on your free cash flow guidance. When we met last time during the quarter conference call, it was announced you had a cumulative guidance of $500 million. Now, you have increased this to almost $700 million. All that -- is all the incremental guidance coming from organic growth due to Project Everest or is there some kind of inorganic contribution? And can you also talk about one of the -- any one of impacts like the legal case with Telefonica that the recent New York [indiscernible] has given. That's the first question.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

So as you can imagine, we imagined ourselves that there would be some questions around this revamped guidance. So, we're going to tackle it three ways to give you a holistic response to you, Phani, and to everyone on the call who surely have the same kind of questions. One is, where each one of the big contributors to equity free cash flow pickup are coming from, and this will be consistent with my prepared remarks. I'll give you more detail on that. Then, Sheldon will give you a little bit more detail on kind of the P&L items that contribute to this equity free cash flow, and then Maxime will further ratify that with the operational and Everest view on this. So, you get a holistic answer to this and kind of lay all your questions. So number one, in terms of where we see the equity free cash flow coming from. I already addressed Colombia, so I'm not going to repeat. Colombia is a meaningful contributor to our swinging equity free cash flow for the strategic reasons that I just mentioned, and for the results of the projects that allow Colombia to grow in margins, and have more equity free cash flow productions. I'm not going to repeat those because we've addressed them significantly. The second largest contributor is Guatemala. For the last three years, you have seen us invest in the density of the network in order to, quite frankly, defend our market share. We also have had to invest in spectrum in order to be able to have a better network experience and spectrum parity, and we've seen pricing pressure as a result of the perceived lack of spectrum or network parity. That has changed dramatically over the last two quarters because we've been able to…

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Sure, Phani. I think your main question is sort of how we -- why the increase of guidance kind of from the time period of December until today. Look, I'd say part of this. There probably was some conservatism in what we said in December as we were still, had a lot of these plans in flight, and was trying to [indiscernible] stuff get implemented. I think Maxime mentioned a lot of the things that he sort of brought to bear when he started reviewing and getting involved in sort of the adverse activities. And you can see the upgrade and what we've done around the Everest ambition from sort of the $135 million we talked about at Q3 to like the -- over $250 million today is really tantamount to all those things we were doing in Q4. So, I think we were a little bit cautious as we were sitting in December. I think once we had the opportunity to see sort of how all that made itself out in our numbers for financial results for the full year, plus the start we've had at the beginning of this year in January, and what we see here in February has given us the confidence to raise that outlook and raise the numbers and provide what we said to you in the results today.

Maxime Lombardini

Management

Just -- I think if you allow me, I can rephrase your question, which is in a way is the cash generation for the company something viable and just to complement the words from Mauricio and Sheldon, I would say there are five good reasons that, I trust, will support the cash generation for the medium and long term. The first one is the way the company works. We are changing the way the company works by simplifying many, many things. And that by simplifying you are saving costs, you are more efficient, more flexible. That is the first item. The second one is the one that we mentioned many times, the cost structure. It will not be the same anymore on many topics. I will not enter into the details that. The third one, which is probably undervalued, is the network optimization. We started a huge work with the contribution of Atlas on simplifying and optimizing the mobile network and the home network. And on top of that, we will have the benefit of the network sharing in Colombia. That is a huge benefit both on spectrum cost, efficiency coverage, quality, and cost. The fourth one, it is something that is not easy to show, but that is the commercial initiatives that we are launching in all the countries. And I've been very impressed by the commercial team of TIGO on both B2C and B2B. They are really top guys and there are many things that we can do with the strong assets that we have. And then the fifth item is something which is very simple and I would say it is pure mathematics. It is the deleverage of the company -- deleveraging the company will improve the cash generation.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Hopefully, Phani, that gives you the strategic, financial, and operational view. And if that is convincing, then just sit tight as we deliver it.

Phani Kanumuri

Analyst

Sure. Just -- so my second question is regarding the pricing environment in Guatemala. You said it was becoming much more stable. So, are you seeing the competitors raising prices, or do you think that your network -- better network is helping retain subscribers and increasing your ability to raise prices? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Maxime, do you want to take that one, and provide a fresh view for Guatemala?

Maxime Lombardini

Management

I would say optimistic and cautious. We are back to a situation which is quite nice. As probably Sheldon said before, the compares are not very easy because we had the World Cup effect one year ago, but we increased price. The KPIs are good, we have a good team there. The situation is, I think, after a trouble period, stabilized and now we are with government and everything going well in the country. So I would say reasonably optimistic on the future of Guatemala. And as you can imagine, we are spending a lot of time with the team there to be sure we have the right commercial positioning, the right network at the right place, and that all the investments that needs to be made are made.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Actually speaking, as you know, we raised prices in September of last year. That created a more rational marketplace. So, those price increases have stuck and we're doing a little bit more beginning of this year because we believe the environment is a lot more stable with the network parity and the spectrum parity that we now have. So we are -- I think, we've used the words modestly, cautiously optimistic about Guatemala, but we also have the ability now to rationalize the network which Maxime alluded to. So, Guatemala is now the cash flow producer that we all know it is.

Phani Kanumuri

Analyst

Perfect. Thanks, everyone.

Michel Morin

Management

Thanks, Phani. All right, next we're going to go to Soomit Datta at New Street Research. Soomit?

Soomit Datta

Analyst

Yes. Hi, everybody. Thanks very much for letting me ask a question and congratulations on the performance. A couple of things please. Maybe just sort of pulling the conclusion together on equity free cash flow. It sounds like there's nothing particularly unusual in the 2024 guidance, and so should we think of the $550 million as a floor number going forward? Doesn't strike me that we should think anything different, but be interested in your interpretation. Wondered if there was anything unusual in working capital, if spectrum was going to be particularly low, if there was some sort of detail there that isn't obvious, but otherwise would be interested in your sense looking beyond 2024. That's the first question. Maybe leave it there and I'll return to a follow-up, please.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Soomit, you're making everyone here very, very, very anxious with your very smart way of asking for future guidance. It's really good. Michel's not in the room, but I can hear him just trembling there, right. Let us answer it twofold. One kind of -- we'll provide guidance beyond 2024 at the right time. For now, we're focusing on cementing at 2024, and I think it's the right focus for us. But I will say just a little bit to make the team a little bit uncomfortable. It is sustainable and it can be grown because we've now on spectrum, reached levels that we think are more noble. As I said before, 2022 and 2023, as we always said were the years of high spectrum spend, and we've done that significantly both in Colombia with the renegotiations and Guatemala with the acquisitions. We now have a joint venture in Colombia that allows us to tackle Colombian spectrum in a much more efficient way. The cost structure changes that Maxime has alluded to has been instrumental in putting in place our long-term cost structure so the platform becomes more profitable, and all of our countries are equity free cash flow positive. Colombia has seen the darkest moments over the last couple of years and we've been able to sort it out. Colombia seems on a track to be sorted out. Guatemala already alluded, we defended our market share on the prior question. I was simply going to add our market share remains the same, pricing is stable, we got spectrum parity so Colombia seems on track. And Panama is everything we expected it would be when we acquired those two businesses four years ago. So, without giving you specifics, we are positive that this is sustainable equity free cash flow levels and growth.

Soomit Datta

Analyst

Okay, helpful. Thank you. Can I just turn to the top line then? There was a nice lift from the B2B contract in Panama. I think underlying revenue growth is maybe running at 2%, give or take. How do you think about that looking forward, and again, not looking for numbers, but in terms of home, I think we're maybe sort of flat to down slightly underlying -- mobile growing a little bit, B2B is lumpy, but just thinking how you think about the sort of overall revenue mix component, and if you can, on the ability to sort of raise that current run rate of growth looking forward. Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

I'll give it a big picture and Maxime can definitely and please add to that. We're still on?

Michel Morin

Management

Yes. Sorry, our camera went dark.

Maxime Lombardini

Management

Okay. Our camera went dark, so as long as we're still on. So listen, postpaid on mobile is driving a lot of growth both in terms of additions and in terms of pricing. And you've seen that particularly in Colombia and Panama, but prepaid is also coming back, particularly in Guatemala. And we're also seeing improving trends in Bolivia and mobile. Home, a continuation of what we said in the last couple of quarters, we're being a lot more price disciplined and maintaining installation fees. It means lower volume as you've seen in Colombia and in Bolivia, but it means sustained ARPU and sustained revenue on home. And I think that's the right approach. And I think Maxime and Atlas and ourselves view eye-to-eye on that. And B2B as you've seen is delivering with both the digital and cloud products, but also new contracts that we are achieving, particularly in Panama. So, we're focused on the top line in that manner. And Maxime, I can't really see you on the screen, but if you have anything to add, just shout.

Maxime Lombardini

Management

Yes, I think I am still on the screen, for me at least. I will just add some comments on the home business. The home business was a bit in a flat -- flattish situation, and we started working on something quite simple which is to upgrade very significantly the capacities of the HFC networks. We are lucky because the quality of this HFC network in most of the geographies is good and with limited CapEx, we are able to very significantly increase the bandwidth we can deliver. So from time-to-time, we have to deliver also a new CPE to the customer, but that is something that we pushed on all the geographies where there is a need. And together with the revamping of some offers, we are able to be really competitive on the market with a very low CapEx intensity to deliver something which is drastically different from the past. And that, together with the discipline that Mauricio mentioned, just to avoid to put CapEx in a country or in a situation where the churn is very high, we are monitoring the payback of the investors -- of the subscribers, sorry. And I would say we are reasonably optimistic on what we can do with the 14 million households that we have passed in HFC. And on mobile, nothing to add to what Mauricio said. Things are going well in most of the geographies.

Soomit Datta

Analyst

Got it. Very clear. Thank you.

Michel Morin

Management

Thank you, Soomit. All right, next, and I think this will be our last question, is coming from Eduardo Rubi at UBS. Eduardo?

Eduardo Rubi

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Two questions from my side. First, in terms of capital allocation, can you please compare how you evaluate allocation between debt repurchase and stock repurchase? And second, given the debt repurchase and current rate and FX environment, what figure should we expect for financial expenses going into 2024? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

The first one, Eduardo, I'll take, and then I'll hand it over to Sheldon for the second one in a lot more detail. Our capital allocation methodology, as you can imagine, and as we've said a number of times is basically highest return oriented with a view toward strategic investments as well, meaning stuff that has long-term return on capital. At this point in time, with our growing cash flow and our leverage coming down to the state of 2.5 times, sooner than we had expected, we continue to view debt reduction as the highest return to our shareholders. So that's where our current focus is on and that's all I'll say on that because I think that is probably the most productive answer we can give you. And on the details on question number two, I'll hand it over to Sheldon.

Sheldon Bruha

Management

Sure. I would just highlight, yes, we expect sort of finance charge improvements this year, particularly as we deploy sort of the cash flow generation that we've highlighted. In terms of debt reduction, I'm not going to give you specific guidance on it, but, I mean, absolutely, we're going to be looking for improvements there for the year and you can kind of do some math, so you can sort of forecast how that $550 million of equity free cash flow will come through the year and kind of the interest rate savings associated with it.

Eduardo Rubi

Analyst

That's okay. Very clear. Thank you very much.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Gracias, Eduardo.

Michel Morin

Management

Thanks, Eduardo. All right, so that wraps up the Q&A. Mauricio, back to you for any closing remarks.

Mauricio Ramos

Management

Sure. Thanks to Sheldon, Michel, and Maxime for participating and for the entire TIGO team to make this come through. Thank you all for joining us today. As you can see, things are coming together after a lot of work by a lot of people, Colombia is under control and with an improved outlook, Guatemala, indeed, is under control and with an improved, yet cautiously optimistic outlook. Panama is turning out to be what we expected it would be when we bought the asset, and we've allocated capital to Guatemala and Panama, and we're happy we did because those are our two largest cash flow producers. Everest, which is now revamped, increased, broadened, is giving us a cost structure that we think will make our platform a profitable platform, and this is a wording that Maxime and I and the team speak about, a platform and making it profitable. We've now seen the worst of the spectrum renewals and the spectrum costs. So going forward, we're looking at more normalized spectrum spend as we anticipated and we're looking forward to Lati and our ability to monetize some of that. When you put it all together in a cost structure that we think can give us increased margins and sustainable profitability, all of that leads to 2024 being, as we've often said before, the year of our cash flow. And thank you.