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Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (TKC)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 6, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Constantino, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Turkcell's conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the Turkcell's Third Quarter 202 Financial Results. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Ozlem Yardim, Investor Relations and Corporate Finance Director. Ms. Yardim, you may now proceed.

Ozlem Yardim

Analyst

Thank you, Constantino. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Turkcell's 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Call. On the call today, we have our CEO, Ali Taha Koc; and CFO, Kamil Kalyon. They will provide an overview of our financial and operational results for the quarter, followed by a Q&A session. Before we begin, I would like to kindly remind you to review our safe harbor statement, which is available at the end of our presentation. With that, I will now turn the call over to Mr. Ali Taha. Ali Koç: Thank you, Ozlem. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today. This quarter once again demonstrated Turkcell's strong momentum powered by disciplined operations, sharp execution and the strength of our growth engines. We delivered 11% revenue growth, reaching TRY 60 billion, driven primarily by our core telecommunication business. Strong ARPU performance, a growing subscriber base and rising data center revenues all contributed to this outstanding performance. Group EBITDA increased 11% to TRY 26 billion, achieving a solid 43.9% margin, a clear reflection of our continued cost discipline. In addition to our operational success, prudent financial management strengthened our bottom line. Lifting net income from continuing operations up by 31.8% to TRY 5.4 billion. Competition remained intense this quarter. Even so, we added 569,000 net postpaid subscribers. Through targeted pricing and upselling, mobile ARPU rose 12%, once again proving our ability to deliver double-digit growth in a highly competitive environment. Residential fiber ARPU also grew by 17.3% year-on-year in the third quarter. Our strategic growth areas also continued to perform strongly. Data center and cloud revenues grew 51%, and our renewable energy capacity from solar fields across 4 cities in Turkiye has reached 37.5 megawatt. Next page, please. We are proud to reinforce our leadership with the successful outcome of…

Kamil Kalyon

Analyst

Thank you very much, Ali Taha. We had a solid quarter driven by continued momentum in our core business and techfin expansion. We achieved 11.2% year-on-year revenue growth, fueled by strong execution across our key business lines. Turkcell Turkiye remained the main top line driver, contributing TRY 5.5 billion of additional revenue. This was supported by double-digit real ARPU growth, a larger postpaid base and solid performance from digital business services. Techfin added TRY 569 million in revenue, driven by solid growth at Paycell, particularly across POS and mobile payment verticals. On profitability, margins reflected our ongoing investments to enable 5G rollout and to capture the strong growth momentum in Paycell transaction volumes. At the same time, personnel and energy costs contributed positively to our overall performance. Overall, we maintained a solid profitability level, demonstrating the strength of our operating leverage and disciplined cost management. Next slide, please. Profit from continuing operations increased 31.8% year-on-year to TRY 5.4 billion, reflecting focused execution and effective cash management. EBITDA contribution totaled TRY 2.5 billion for the quarter, remaining the key driver of profit growth. Despite persistent competition, Turkcell sustained its leadership through a clear strategic focus and efficient execution. We prudently managed our net finance income and expenses this quarter, resulting in a year-on-year contribution of TRY 1.5 billion. With FX depreciation decreased to nearly half of last year's level, we recorded a positive FX impact of TRY 912 million. Despite a higher nominal debt level versus Q3 2024, our strong financial discipline and proactive funding strategy led to a decline in interest expenses to TRY 677 million. Meanwhile, although interest income remained limited, returns were supported by a well-diversified and efficiently managed investment portfolio. Our strong cash position, together with the slower inflation growth year-on-year resulted in a monetary loss this…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Singh Maddy with HSBC.

Madhvendra Singh

Analyst

My first question is on your CapEx and dividend outlook, especially given the recent 5G auction win. I wonder -- for this year, you have given the guidance for CapEx, so that's fine. But I was wondering whether next year, we should expect a significant jump in the CapEx to sales intensity and whether this spectrum payment is going to affect the dividend payments at all? So that's the first question. And then the second question is on your pricing action during the quarter? Did you increase any prices? And how was the competitive response to that? Are you comfortable around the pricing environment? So that's the second one. And then the final one, actually on your final comment about the net short FX position, you said the definition will not be applicable going forward. So can you please explain what do you mean by that? And how should we think about the FX losses going forward, yes?

Kamil Kalyon

Analyst

Thank you very much, Maddy, for the questions. First question and third question will be responded by me. First of all, -- for the next year, CapEx intensity, we are not expecting higher jumps. As you know, starting of this year, we declared 24% CapEx sales ratio for this year. Now we revised it to 23%. For the next year period, we do not -- we will not be in a position exceeding the 24% around the CapEx intensity levels will be around this 24%. We will see the budget figures that will come from the business lines. The other one, as you know, our dividend policy is distributing our 50% net income of the year. We are proposing to the general assembly and general assembly decided. As you know, we have -- as [indiscernible] said, we are a very dividend-friendly company. And if you chase our company, we will be -- we have been distributing dividends for many years period. Therefore, for the 2026, our AGM has not been decided about this issue, but our dividend policy is still distributing the 50% of the net income. For the third question, as you know, we are declaring our FX position as minus -- plus USD 200 million. And when we look at the 5G tender, the results and officially, the tender results will be ratified by the governmental bodies approximately in January 2026. Therefore, the FX position -- net FX position or this liability will be in our balance sheet starting from 2026. Therefore, we will look at the position at that time. But as Ali mentioned, the 5G tender price will be paid within 3 installments. In the first installment will be in January 2026. Therefore, it means that 1/3 of the tender price plus 20% VAT amount, which…

Madhvendra Singh

Analyst

If I may ask a follow-up on the spectrum part. So the payment is in hard currency. I was wondering whether the asset itself will be recognized in hard currency as well.

Kamil Kalyon

Analyst

Normally, as you mentioned, the payments will be done in U.S. dollar terms. Therefore, we will -- our liquidity position is fair enough to make all the payments in both in TL side and the U.S. dollar side. Therefore, starting from the January 2026, we will look at the macroeconomical conditions, FX rates, TL rates and the most important one, the hedging rates, for example, hedging costs are very important in order to decide. But as I said, we have enough TL and the U.S. dollar money in our hands. Therefore, we will decide it in January 2026 by taking into consideration the macroeconomical conditions on that date. It's a little bit early to give a guarantee or to give a color how we will make the payments. We can prefer to make dollar payments or maybe we can prefer to make TL payments. But at TL, we will be keeping our U.S. dollar money in our hands, and it will not create additional problem from our perspective.

Madhvendra Singh

Analyst

My question was more on the balance sheet entry on the asset side. So you will recognize the spectrum as an asset, right? But the value, I'm not sure whether that will be put in a lira number or a dollar number.

Kamil Kalyon

Analyst

Normally, it will be included into our balance sheet in 2026, and we will make this capitalization in the TL terms. And as you mentioned -- as you imagine, that starting from 2026, this asset will generate an inflation profit starting from the depreciation in the income side starting from 2026.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of [indiscernible] with Barclays.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Congrats on the results. I have just a couple of questions. So my first one is on your 2026 outlook. Do you think that the revenue growth that you've delivered in 2025 or planning to deliver is sustainable going forward given the 5G regime coming? And also -- and also on your profitability, do you think like current margin -- EBITDA margin levels are sustainable for next years? And second question is also on your -- do you have any long-term target for your net leverage? Or maybe where do you see the net leverage ratio next year and going forward after the 5G payments are done? Ali Koç: I can start with the first one. Let me talk a little bit about the current year, the great year and a great quarter. So we had another solid operational and financial results this quarter and which was actually beyond our initial plans. We continue to expand our subscriber base in both mobile and fixed segments, while delivering a real ARPU growth in each quarter of 2025 through our dynamic tariff and pricing management, higher postpaid share, also successful upselling actions and rising demand for high-speed connection also supported our ARPU performance. So consequently, in the first 9 months, our consolidated revenue grew by 12% year-over-year. And also techfin, if you talk about the techfin in the first 9 months, delivered a 25% year-over-year growth, making a very meaningful contribution to our top line. Also, our strategic investments, data center and cloud services also achieved robust revenue growth of 51% compared to the same period last year and significantly exceeding our previous full year 2025 guidance. EBITDA grew by 15%, leading to a 43.7% EBITDA margins. Building on our strong 9-month performance, we have revised our full year both revenue growth and as well as the EBITDA margin expectation and guidance. So to remain prudent while revising our guidance, we also considered the reduced magnitude of price adjustments compared to last year. And we are expecting a very competitive environment in the following years on 2026 expectation as we are in the planning process. It is too early to comment. However, our goal is to maintain our micro segment management strategy, along with our AI-driven technologies, along with our revenue growth initiatives and continue growing above the inflation rate.

Kamil Kalyon

Analyst

For the second question, as I mentioned in my presentation, at the end of this year, we will be paying the second installment of our dividend payment, and we have some additional repayment of debt for 2025. And in January, as I mentioned, we will be paying the 44% of the total tender price for the 5G side. Therefore, our expectation is this leverage ratio would be around 0.7 or 8x. And as I mentioned in my presentation, again, our aim is to keep this level lower than the 1x.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of [indiscernible] with [indiscernible].

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Good results. Actually, all of my questions have been answered.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Demirtas Cemal with Ata Invest.

Cemal Demirtas

Analyst · Ata Invest.

Congratulations for the good results. My question is rather some technical issues in the income statement. We see monetary loss in third quarter versus like the monetary gain in the previous quarters. Could you just tell us more about the changes that lead to monetary losses in this quarter because it offsets a portion of the higher-than-expected operating profit when we go to the bottom line? And the other question is again about the TOGG participation side, we see lower losses unlike the previous 2 quarters. Do you think it's going to be the permanent? Should we expect lower the losses contribution from the TOGG, your subsidiary side? That's my second question. And again, could you just give any direction about 2026 from your side? And again, I would like to ask what kind of value-added -- the things that could come into surface in 2026 as now the 5G is done, please, in terms of licensing. What are the opportunities rather than the organic growth of the company? What could be changing in 2026 from your perspective?

Kamil Kalyon

Analyst · Ata Invest.

Cemal, thank you very much for your technical questions. First question regarding the first question, yes, you're right. Our monetary gain declined by TRY 2.4 billion compared to Q3 of 2024. There are certain reasons. One of them is the slowdown in inflation rates. As you know, last year, inflation was in the same period around 8.9%. Now currently, it's declined to 7.5%. Therefore, this is the first reason for the lower monetary gain. The second one and the most important one, as you know, we sold our Ukraine business in 2024. It means that you are taking a significant portion from your balance sheet, especially generating inflationary income in your balance sheet. Therefore, due to this effect, Ukraine subsidiary sale led to a negative composition against nonmonetary assets. And furthermore, the capital reduction executed in our Netherlands company subsidiary in Q4 in 2024 indirectly led to a monetary loss due to indexation in Q3 2025. Therefore, this is the reasons of this one starting...

Cemal Demirtas

Analyst · Ata Invest.

Sorry for interrupting, but before passing to the next question, when I look at the -- my question is rather compared to second quarter, what -- I know that there might be changes from quarter-to-quarter, but even what changed from second quarter to third quarter? The inflation is higher, the quarter-over-quarter change. I don't know if you have any justification for the Q-over-Q comparison, the year-over comparison fair. Just if you have any comments before answering the next question.

Kamil Kalyon

Analyst · Ata Invest.

Normally, from Q3 -- Q2 to Q3, you're asking in 2025. Am I right?

Cemal Demirtas

Analyst · Ata Invest.

Yes, yes, yes.

Kamil Kalyon

Analyst · Ata Invest.

As far as I remember, we do not have a significant change regarding the year-over-year side. Yes, the Ukraine business is very important for this one. But Q2, Q3, we do not have a significant change in the inflationary side. But as you know, this -- some of the -- how can I say, in the CapEx side, there are some CapEx amounts are eliminated, as you know, for the 5G side and the 4G side. Therefore, this might affect the inflationary accounting side. But in Q2 and Q3, I do not remember the significant result. But starting from Q2 or Q3, we have started to generate inflationary loss for this year. But for -- starting from 2026, our 5G license amounts and the additional CapEx amounts will be included in our balance sheet, and we will be starting to see significant amount of monetary gain in our balance sheet starting from 2026. But for this year, as I mentioned, the main loss item is coming from the Ukraine sale asset and the inflation rates. The second question is regarding the TOGG. As we mentioned in our previous calls, there are some problems, especially in the market -- electric vehicle market in 2025. And starting from the Q2, TOGG started to take the necessary actions for the cost optimization. And as you might remember, there are certain changes in the special consumption tax base in third quarter. And this change led to an increase in vehicle prices, which was also supported by the launch of the new model. Therefore, TOGG recorded a moderate improvement in its performance during this quarter. Most probably this improvement will continue in Q4. Therefore, starting from -- we hope that Q3 2025 would be a significant milestone for the TOGG side. In the coming periods,…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Turkcell management for any closing comments. Thank you. Ali Koç: Thank you very much for joining us, and I hope to see you in the next quarterly meetings. Thank you very much for attending.

Ozlem Yardim

Analyst

Thank you for joining us. Hope to see you for the year-end results. Thank you.

Kamil Kalyon

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling, and have a pleasant evening.