Jennifer Kneale
Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open
Thanks Matt. Good morning, everyone. Targa's reported adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $328 million which was 10% higher than the same period in 2016. Continued strong volume growth in Permian GMP complement by higher volumes in Badlands, SouthTX and SouthOK along with higher commodity prices and higher fractionation volumes drove the increase in adjusted EBITDA over the prior year, offset by declining WestOK and North Texas volumes. Reported net maintenance CapEx was $27 million in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared to $28 million in the fourth quarter of 2016 and total net maintenance CapEx for full year 2017 was $99 million. Distributable cash flow for the fourth quarter was $275 million resulting in dividend coverage of 1.24 times consistent with our expectation that dividend coverage would be highest in the fourth quarter. For full year 2017, adjusted EBITDA of $1.14 billion increased 7% over 2016 and exceeded our previously communicated full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.13 billion. Full-year dividend coverage was approximately one times as anticipated. Moving to our sequential results, adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter increased 19% over the third quarter and our Gathering and Processing segment operating margin increased by $36 million in the fourth quarter when compared to the third quarter, primarily due to higher NGL prices and higher Inlet volumes in the Permian, Badlands, SouthTX and SouthOK. Fourth quarter Permian Inlet volumes sequentially increased to 4% from growth in each of our Permian Midland and Permian Delaware systems and as Matt mentioned, volumes would've been higher pro forma for offloaded volumes. Inlet volumes in SouthTX sequentially increased 11% as we benefited from higher volumes from Sanchez through the Raptor plant. In the Bakken, Badlands crude oil gathered volumes were approximately 120,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, increasing 10% over the third quarter and fourth quarter natural gas volumes increased by approximately 9% over the third quarter. Volumes also sequentially increased in SouthOK as incremental scoop volumes offset legacy production declines. Permian crude volumes gathered in the fourth quarter were approximately 45,000 barrels per day. In our logistics and marketing segment, operating margin increased $38 million in the fourth quarter when compared to the third quarter. As estimated approximately $7 million of operating margin in our downstream segment shifted into the fourth quarter as a result of temporary operational disruptions related to the impacts of hurricane Harvey. strong volume growth in Permian G&P predominantly drove fourth quarter fractionation volumes to average 443,000 barrels per day including 29,000 barrels per day that shifted into the fourth quarter as a result of the impact of hurricane Harvey. LPG export volumes were also strong in the fourth quarter as we averaged 6.4 million barrels per month of exports at Galena Park including about 380,000 barrels per month that were attributable to cargos that were deferred into the fourth quarter, again as a result of the impact of hurricane Harvey Overall, operating expenses during the fourth quarter in both our G&P and downstream segments were essentially flat to the third quarter, despite increasing volumes. Full year 2017 average fractionation volumes increased 15% over average 2016 and average 2017 LPG export volumes of 5.6 million barrels per month were roughly in line with average 2016. Moving now to other finance-related matters, the reported aggregate fair value of the earnout payments for our Permian acquisition are currently estimated to be about $317 million with a $7 million payment forecasted for April 2018 and $310 million estimated to be paid in April 2019. During the fourth quarter, we executed additional hedges as we benefited from forward price strength in certain commodities. For 2018, we estimate that we've hedged approximately 85% of natural gas, 75% of NGLs and 75% of condensate volumes based on our estimated current equity volumes from Field G&P. Our natural gas hedges include regional hedges. For 2019, we estimate that we've hedged approximately 65% of natural gas, 40% of condensate and 35% of NGL volumes, again based on our estimate of current equity volumes from field gathering and processing. Our consolidated liquidity as of year-end was approximately $1.9 billion including approximately $137 million in cash. On a debt compliance basis, TRP's leverage ratio at the end of the fourth quarter was 3.8 times versus a compliance covenant of 5.5 times. Our consolidated reported debt-to-EBITDA ratio was approximately 4.4 times. Since year-end we improved our financial position further through execution of the DevCo JVs, which increased our current liquidity to $2.1 billion given a $190 million of proceeds received from Stonepeak. The DevCo JVs demonstrate our access to private capital at an attractive cost and they significantly reduce our equity funding needs for 2018 and also for 2019 while preserving our balance sheet strength and flexibility. Some of the other benefits of the DevCo JVs structure include, no deletion to Targa's existing shareholders and no reduction in dividend coverage during the construction period, the flexibility to acquire Stonepeak's interest over four years beginning at the earlier of the commercial operations stage of the final project currently estimated to be GCX in October 2019 or January 01, 2020. The flexibility to acquire the first 50% of Stonepeak's interest in minimum increments of $100 million and then acquire the remaining 50% in one purchase. We maintained Targa control, the management, construction and operations of Grand Prix and the additional fractionation train and finally we retained the residual upside of the contributed projects for Targa's shareholders, given the purchase option and to be clear, our base case assumptions are that we will acquire Stonepeak's interest. Let's now turn our expectations for 2018, which assume NGL composite barrel prices to average $0.67 per gallon, crude oil prices to average $58 per barrel and natural gas prices to average $2.75 per MMBtu for the year. Beginning with our GMP segment, we expect total Permian natural gas Inlet volumes for 2018 to average between 1.55 to 1.65 billion cubic feet per day with the midpoint of the range representing a 25% increase in average 2018 Permian Inlet volumes over the 2017 average. We expect Permian Inlet volumes to sequentially ramp with average fourth quarter 2018 Inlet volumes being the highest quarter of the year. We also expect to average 2018 Inlet volume in SouthOK, SouthTX and the Badlands to be higher than average 2017. Collectively, we expect total Field G&P natural gas Inlet volumes for 2018 to average between 3.15 to 3.35 billion cubic feet per day with the midpoint of the range representing an 18% increase in average total Field G&P Inlet volumes over the 2017 average. We also expect total crude gathered volumes in both the Badlands and the Permian to be higher on average in 2018 than averaged 2017. Downstream, we expect fractionation volumes to significantly increase year-over-year, largely driven by growth in Permian G&P volumes. While ultimately, we expect the increase in -- while ultimately, we expect the increase in Permian volumes for Targa and others will be constructed for additional LPG exports, our financial expectations for 2018 only include currently contracted volumes. We expect more than contracted volumes, but our overall guidance again only includes those that are contracted. We expect full year 2018 adjusted EBITDA to be between $1.225 billion to $1.325 billion with the midpoint of the range representing a 12% increase over 2017 adjusted EBITDA. Similar to 2017, we expect full year 2018 dividend coverage to be about one time, assuming a flat $3.64 annual dividend. We expect 2018 quarterly adjusted EBIDTA to increase sequentially with fourth quarter 2018 adjusted EBITDA and fourth quarter dividend coverage being the highest for the year. First quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to be the lowest. As our volumes are expected to ramp throughout 2018 and because were impacted by freeze-offs in January. As announced recently and proforma for the DevCo JVs, our current 2018 net growth CapEx estimate is approximately $1.6 billion. And it is reasonable to assume that 2018 CapEx will be higher than that as we move through the year and continue to execute commercially. Full year 2018 maintenance CapEx is forecasted to be approximately $120 million. Given the financing steps that we took in 2017 and the steps that we have already taken in 2018, we believe that our remaining financing needs for 2018 are very manageable. In 2017 we over-equities, when we announced the Permian acquisition and also when we announced Grand Prix and then later reduced our overall capital obligations to our Grand Prix strategic JV with BlackStone. Our recent execution of the DevCo JV will provide approximately $550 million of capital in 2018 and additional significant capital savings in 2019. We announced two strategic JVs in January, with Hess Midstream and MPLX that also resulted in targeted being reimbursed for capital ROE spend and reduced our funding obligations for the assets under construction going forward. We continue to evaluate and have opportunities for asset sales, additional asset and/or development joint ventures preferred equity and common equity. And we of course also consider other alternatives, including utilizing more leverage than a 50/50 debt equity capital funding model given our current balance sheet strength and visibility into increasing EBITDA in the future. And with that I will turn the call back over to Joe Bob.