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Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)

Q1 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, May 27, 2021

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to Ulta Beauty's conference call to discuss results for the first quarter of fiscal 2021. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Ms. Kiley Rawlins, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Rawlins, please proceed.

Kiley Rawlins

Analyst

Thank you, Shamali. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Hosting our call are Mary Dillon, Chief Executive Officer; Dave Kimbell, President; and Scott Settersten, Chief Financial Officer. Kecia Steelman, Chief Store Operations Officer, will join us for the Q&A session. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that statements made on this conference call, which are not historical facts, may be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual future results may differ materially from those projected in such statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, all of which are described in the company's filings with the SEC. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today, May 27, 2021. We have no obligation to update or revise our forward-looking statements, except as required by law, and you should not expect us to do so. In today's comments, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted operating income, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share, which have been presented to reflect our view of ongoing operations by adjusting fiscal 2020 results for store impairment charges and adjusting both 2021 and 2020 for stock compensation and other tax credits. A reconciliation of these measures for the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release which is available in the Investor Relations section of our website at www.ulta.com. Following prepared comments from our leadership team, we will open the call for questions. [Operator Instructions] As always, I'll be available for any follow-up questions after the call. Now I'll turn the call over to Mary. Mary?

Mary Dillon

Analyst

Thank you, Kylie, and good afternoon, everyone. This afternoon, we reported record first quarter financial performance, with sales and earnings exceeding both fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2019 levels. For the first quarter, net sales increased 65.2% to $1.9 billion. Operating margin was 15.8% of sales, and GAAP diluted EPS was $4.10 per share. Adjusted diluted EPS for the quarter was $4.07 per share. Fiscal 2021 is off to a fantastic start at Ulta Beauty, and I want to thank all our associates for their continued efforts to deliver great experiences and support our business in an environment that continues to be very dynamic. Now as you know, this will be the final time I speak with all of you as CEO as I will transition to Executive Chair of Ulta Beauty next week after our Annual Shareholder Meeting. I cannot express how much of an honor serving as the CEO of Ulta Beauty has been for me. I'm proud of what we've accomplished over the last 8 years and the amazing team and culture that we've built. I want to thank my leadership team for their collaboration, agility and commitment to our associates and guests. And I want to thank all of you in the investor community for your interest and support. I am really excited about Ulta Beauty's future, and I'm confident this will be a seamless leadership transition. Dave's passion for Ulta Beauty and our associates is unmatched. And he knows the beauty category, our business and our guests very well. In fact, his role as a Chief Marketing Officer, Chief Merchandising Officer and President have given him a much better understanding of the category, demand creation and the needs of our guests than I had when I assumed the CEO role 8 years ago. I know his knowledge and commitment will position him well to lead Ulta Beauty through its next chapter of growth. And although many of you have met her, I want to take a moment to introduce Kecia Steelman, who is joining the call today and will become our Chief Operating Officer. Kecia has done an outstanding job as our Store Operations Leader for the past 7-plus years, and I'm excited that she will expand her scope to include supply chain, Ulta Beauty at Target and enterprise level continuous improvement efforts. As you get to know her in this new role, I know you'll be impressed by her knowledge, leadership style and passion for our business, associates and guests. Although this change is somewhat bittersweet for me personally, I'm excited about my new role as Executive Chair. I look forward to supporting Dave, Kecia and the rest of the Ulta Beauty leadership team as they build on what we've accomplished together and continue to lead and disrupt the beauty category for many years to come. Now I'll turn the call over to Dave to share more detail about the first quarter's results.

David Kimbell

Analyst

Thanks, Mary, for your kind words, confidence and support. We've worked together for a long time, and I'm grateful for the opportunity I've had to learn from you and to lead with you. Under your leadership, Ulta Beauty has established a winning, engaging culture, become the largest U.S. beauty retailer, joined the Fortune 500 and tripled its market cap. And we have solidified the company as the preferred destination for beauty enthusiasts, created an inclusive, well-regarded workplace and become a recognized leader in the business and retail community. I want to thank you personally for your leadership and mentorship, and I look forward to your ongoing support and counsel as I transition into my new role. Kecia, I'm thrilled to continue to work with you in your new role as Chief Operating Officer. We've worked closely for the last 7 years, and I look forward to leading with you and our experienced executive team in service of our associates, guests and shareholders. I am excited and humbled to become the CEO of Ulta Beauty. Over the last several years, I've worked closely with Mary and the entire executive team to build our culture, strengthen our guest engagement, and develop our strategic plan, and I will work hard to ensure a seamless transition as we plan and execute the next chapter of our growth. Over the last 60 days, I've spent time talking with and listening to our leaders and our associates across the enterprise. Most recently, Kecia and I visited our Greenwood distribution center and our new Jacksonville, Florida fast fulfillment center as well as a number of stores. And more than exceptional operations, we saw firsthand the commitment and passion our associates bring to serving our guests. Despite the challenges of maintaining COVID-related safety protocols, our DC teams continue…

Scott Settersten

Analyst

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. Starting with the income statement. Q1 sales increased 65.2% as we anniversaried the temporary closure of all of our stores last year in response to COVID-19. We opened 28 new stores during the quarter, including our new Herald Square store in New York City and closed 2 stores. We also remodeled 3 stores and relocated 1 store. Total company comp increased 65.9%, driven by an 8.8% growth in average ticket and a 52.5% increase in transactions. Compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2019, total sales increased 11.2% and comp store sales increased 7%. As Dave mentioned, we saw stronger-than-expected sales growth across channels, with brick-and-mortar and e-commerce contributing to the strong comp performance. From a mix perspective, cosmetics was 45% of sales compared to 50% last year. Skin care increased 200 basis points to 19% of sales, the fragrance and bath category increased 400 basis points to 11% of sales, and hair care products and styling tools increased 90 basis points to 19% of sales. As a percent of sales, the services category was down 40 basis points to about 3%. Note, the nail category is now included in cosmetics, instead of Other and we have updated 2020 results to reflect this change. Gross profit margin increased to 38.9% of sales compared to 25.9% last year. The increase was primarily due to significant leverage of fixed costs resulting from higher sales. In addition, gross margin benefited from higher merchandise margin, lower salon expenses and a more favorable channel mix. While the higher sales delivered some benefit on merchandise margin, the improvement also reflects lower promotional activity in the quarter and ongoing benefits from our efficiencies for growth, or EFG, cost optimization program. Salon expenses were lower compared to last year, reflecting the elimination…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer.

Rupesh Parikh

Analyst

So first, Mary, wish you all the best, and you're certainly going to be missed.

Mary Dillon

Analyst

Thank you, Rupesh.

Rupesh Parikh

Analyst

And then, I guess, for the team, just congrats on a really amazing quarter. So I guess the one question I have is, if you look at Q1, obviously, operating margins are now well above where they were in Q1 '19. Are there any new learnings that you can share in terms of maybe some new structural benefits you see in operating margins going forward just based on the performance we saw during the quarter?

Scott Settersten

Analyst

Yes. So we're very proud, Rupesh, of the results that we were able to post in the first quarter and our teams did a great job collaborating with our brand partners to deliver a great experience to our guests and an outstanding financial performance. Part of what was driving some of that overperformance was obviously the very strong comp, right, in the sales generation versus what our initial expectations were. So nearly a 66% versus last year and about 7% versus fiscal 2019. So a lot of good things going into that. Besides the great tailwinds we saw from stimulus payments and optimism about the economy and the COVID vaccine rollout across the nation, there was also structural changes we made in our business model, right? So we've talked about these over the course of the last couple of calls. So there's some good things that we did, some great self-help things, but we also took advantage of a great sales environment. As we think about the 15.8 that we posted in the first quarter versus kind of the rest of the year and what our long-term expectations are, I would say that there was a bit of over-leverage maybe in the first quarter, right? So again, we didn't expect those sales levels obviously, as we get started in the year. And so the spending, we were unable to kind of match spending with the sales generation. So especially in the store environment, I mean, there were some longer lines at the checkout that maybe we would have preferred to see if we had that choice ahead of time. So as we're looking out to the rest -- the second half of the year, there's things around wages, store labor, some upward pressure in fuel and transportation costs. And then we're going to do some more advertising in the back half of the year than what we had initially planned to make sure we take advantage of the environment and make sure we really maximize market share gain opportunities in this environment. So longer term, very optimistic about operating margin expansion opportunities across the wide variety of elements in our business.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Mark Altschwager with Baird.

Mark Altschwager

Analyst

I was hoping you could speak a little bit more to the trend you're seeing in the recovery in stores, perhaps relative to 2019, I think comps up 7%, with some of the e-commerce growth you cited, if my math is right, I think it implies stores still down versus '19, but it sounds like traffic is recovering nicely. So just any insight there. Just bigger picture, how the Q1 results have really informed your thinking on the trajectory of the store productivity recovery through the remainder of the year?

David Kimbell

Analyst

Yes, Mark, yes, we are very encouraged by the performance of our store channel. In fact, our entire omnichannel experience, even as our e-comm performed above expectations, our stores strengthened. So it just reinforces for us, the importance and the power of our model and the connections that we've built. Yes. Yes. Stores did exceed our expectations, grew throughout the quarter. We saw -- as our guests became more comfortable in shopping in person, we certainly benefited from that and saw continued improvement throughout the quarter. Traffic was still down -- meaningfully down for the quarter, down in the 20% range. So the strength we saw in stores, we are pleased to see a lot of guests coming back in, but also strong -- saw strong ticket performance, which we think is driven by renewal reengagement in the category, trip consolidation, a lot of newness coming. But yes, so while we're encouraged by store, we know we still have opportunity ahead to get all of our guests back comfortable shopping in store, and we're continuing to see that trend. I will just say that the -- as I mentioned, the e-commerce business also exceeded our expectations, including strength in BOPIS, so it reinforces for us, not just any individual strength across either stores or e-commerce or any element, but the connected strength that we're seeing, which is a strong indicator to us that our members are getting back involved in all aspects of Ulta, and we're pleased with that and anticipate more to come. As we look out over the rest of this year, as it relates to store traffic, we would anticipate it getting -- continue to improve traffic, but there's still a lot of uncertainty about how the rest of the year will play out and exactly how that will translate into store behaviors, but we're encouraged by what we saw in Q1.

Mark Altschwager

Analyst

That's really helpful. And maybe just as a quick follow-up to that, just the strength in BOPIS is nice to hear. Could you just maybe address e-commerce margins and how you're kind of closing the gap there relative to stores? I guess, maybe that would be for Scott.

Scott Settersten

Analyst

Yes. So I guess I would start with overall versus last year, the channel shift is going to work to our advantage, right? So that's going to be a nice tailwind as we talk about gross margin specifically, but operating margins overall. So as you've heard us talk about before, Mark, many times, there's a lot of different levels we have at our disposal to help mitigate some of this -- the margin headwinds that come with that part of the business. So again, that's just part of how consumers are going to shop, and we're focused on making sure we deliver the best shopping experience regardless if it's in our stores or an online digital kind of environment. So BOPIS is one piece of that. We saw a nice increase this quarter. We're working on other ways we can motivate our guests to take advantage of that because that is a margin help for us on a rate basis. Again, we want to remind everyone that, as Dave mentioned during the prepared remarks, that our e-com business is largely an incremental piece. So it's driving a lot of incremental sales and the rate headwind we get from that is something we will take, all things considered, but we've got lots of ways to help improve that over the longer term. BOPIS is a piece of it, supply chain, getting closer to the guest is piece of it. And optimizing our promotional cadence overall is a big piece of it as well. So there's still a lot of ways for us to improve that as we look ahead.

Mark Altschwager

Analyst

That's great. Congrats to the team on a strong start and best of luck.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Oliver Chen with Cowen.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

Great quarter and, Mary, we'll miss you a lot. Congrats on the next steps. The inventory position looks really, really tight in terms of it being somewhat low. Were sales left on the table? And what are your thoughts on inventory versus sales going forward in an environment where supply chains have been tougher and just making sure you're as well positioned as possible to realize the market share gains?

David Kimbell

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for your question, Oliver. We feel good about our inventory position, but it's certainly true that we've been working hard to ensure that we maintain a strong level of in-stocks. We've been working very closely with all of our brand partners to respond to this increased demand. And fortunately, we're having good success with that. As we look forward over the year, we would anticipate inventory levels to be higher than 2020, but at a rate lower than our comp sales. So as far as leaving sales on the table, we feel like we were able to deliver and meet the demand. There are pockets of brands that had just extraordinary growth that we're working hard to maintain in-stock levels. But I'd say, overall, our guests were able to -- you'll find what they were looking for, and we felt like we met their expectations. And it's probably reflected in the strong basket size we saw both in-store and online. So a lot of work going on to ensure this. I know our brand partners are max -- really looking to maximize their production to meet this growing demand, and we feel confident we'll be able to meet our guest demand going forward.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

And a follow-up, related question for Kecia or David. Supply chain priorities, just would love your take on the major priorities on the road map ahead as there are many initiatives you're working on?

David Kimbell

Analyst

Yes. That's great. Kecia, do you want to give some highlights there?

Kecia Steelman

Analyst

Yes. We're continuing to look for efficiencies within our supply chain and our network as we build out to support the -- not only the store business, but also the e-com business. So we'll have more to share here in the future, but we're continuing to look for efficiencies and the ways to get the products to our stores and to our consumers in the quickest, most efficient way possible.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from Erinn Murphy with Piper Sandler.

Erinn Murphy

Analyst

Mary, it's been an absolute pleasure working with you. And Dave and Kecia, congratulations. So my question is for Dave. On the cosmetics category, you mentioned it was still negative versus 2019. Could you just put a finer point on quantifying that? And then as you've kind of monitored the pace of reopening, has there been any key regional differences between markets like Florida or Texas that has been a little bit more outspoken in terms of the going out trend? And then what's implied in the guidance for cosmetics as you look at the back half of this year versus 2019 levels?

David Kimbell

Analyst

All right, Erinn, let me -- I'll tackle some of the your cosmetics questions and as both what we're seeing as it relates to the guidance. And I'll ask Kecia to kind of talk about our regional performance here. As far as makeup, as we said, well, and we're really pleased with the performance across all categories with strong growth versus 2020. We'll get extremely specific by category other than to say our makeup category was one major category where versus 2019, in total, we were still short of 2019 performance. Having said that, we're seeing lots of encouraging signs. Our mass business is particularly strong. We've always been -- we've been working on for many years, building a really differentiated mass assortment with many brands that are exclusive or in limited distribution with us. Those partners have been leading innovation and driving new ways to connect with our guests, and that strength has really showed up in Q4. We had strong positive growth on a number of our brands and brands across the assortment in our mass NICs, e.l.f., kiss, Morphe, Maybelline, really across the portfolio, really pleased with the business on that side of the business. Prestige makeup, was not quite as strong. We -- but again, encouraging signs. Newness is kicking in, and we see a lot more coming as we look into the balance of the year. The performance that we've had for a while, prepandemic on Prestige has been challenging, but so many of our brand partners have reacted with strong innovation -- strong product innovation, new marketing approaches, connection through social media. And as customers come back in, as our guests come back in, we're anticipating that part of our business really strengthening over the balance of the year. A couple of highlights where, again, newness, I talked about it in the script, but we're seeing some newness across different areas of the business. Anastasia and brows, Benefit with Mascara new entry -- expanded performance in our luxury segment with HOURGLASS, newer brands like KVD Vegan and Jaclyn cosmetics, performance from some of our strongest largest brands like Clinique and Tarte. So we're seeing some encouraging signs, not quite yet back to 2019 and some uncertainty, how that will play out for the rest of the year. As your question about performance and how makeup performance is reflected in our guidance, we'd say we're still watching it closely. We're not anticipating a massive turnaround, but we do see some encouraging signs. And if newness strengthened throughout the rest of the year, we'd anticipate it performing even better. So good signs in makeup, great signs happening in all categories outside of makeup, and so the balance of our portfolio feels really helpful -- healthy right now. Kecia, do you want to talk about some regional?

Kecia Steelman

Analyst

Yes. Sure. We stayed really close to this as they were starting to list the mask mandates across the states. And we really didn't see the variances across the United States, like what we would have thought. It was strength across the whole U.S. in regards to traffic. And I think it was more related around the confidence of the vaccine, the vaccine rollout and people getting more confident with coming back out into the stores and also getting ready for the reemergence of getting the mask off in the near future. So there were no real regional variances that we saw across the U.S. There was strength in traffic really from coast to coast.

Erinn Murphy

Analyst

That's great. And then just my quick follow-up. So 1.7 million gain in loyalty members this quarter. How did that break down between lapsed versus new consumers?

David Kimbell

Analyst

Yes. We don't typically break that out that specifically. I'll just say we're really proud of our team in coming together to both reengage. I've talked in previous calls about the disruption in 2020 wasn't anything necessarily that they didn't like about Ulta. They just for all the obvious reasons, weren't engaged in 2020. And so the reengagement strategy across all aspects of our business, in particular, in our stores, really paid off with a lot of lapsed guests -- recently lapsed guest coming back in. But equally encouraged by the number of new members in this environment that we attracted. And what's exciting about that is there's a lot of disruption and a lot of potential new members that are maybe reevaluating their -- the way they engage in beauty, and we think our model is perfect for that. So strength across both, and we find it really a good sign and more to come throughout the rest of this year.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Mike Baker with D.A. Davidson.

Michael Baker

Analyst

Okay. Sort of following up on something that they talked about earlier. But if I have -- if I look at your guidance right here, you still have profits down, operating profit that is versus 2019. I think by about $50 million at the midpoint, yet you were up in the first quarter by $70 million. So that implies down somewhere in the $110 million, $125 million for the next 3 quarters. So what are the reasons that the operating profits would be down over the 3-year basis versus being up in the first quarter?

Scott Settersten

Analyst

Yes. So there's a mix of things. Again, the elements that play here, whether you're comparing to last year 2020 or 2019, the drivers are largely the same. It's just the overall impact weight of those in any one particular period that you're looking at. So the primary reason is channel mix, right? When you're looking back to 2019, channel mix is a big influencer there. Again, we're doing a lot of things. Sales increase sales back into brick-and-mortar helps offset some of that headwind when you're looking to 2020. But back to 2019, that's a much larger part of our business. And as we've talked about before on a rate basis, it's definitely a pretty significant headwind for us. Again, a reminder, those are incremental sales. So it's helping the total dollar performance and profit performance, but it hurts us on a rate basis. The other thing is you still got COVID costs in there, right? In 2021, you had none in 2019. We still have social distancing. We mentioned salons were operating at 50% capacity. TBD when all that's going to be able to open up and when we'll be able to be in our full line of businesses as we want to be. There's things in our DCs where we still have the social distance. Again, you got to look beyond the headlines on a lot of these themes. And so we're operating at reduced capacities. We have to add weekend shifts to make sure we can get our pick bins filled and keep the product moving to support an accelerated brick-and-mortar bounce back as well as a continued strong e-commerce business here above what we expected this year. We also have wage pressure. Again, these are things most people are aware of, have seen in the headlines, whether it be just recruiting people to come back and fill open roles in our stores. Or pressure in the DC network. We see what others are doing out there to try to retain and find new employees. So again, we're not -- we have to compete with those people the same way everyone else has to do. And then lastly, I'd say a big piece is incentive compensation falling on the SG&A line. Again, when you think back to 2019 and our performance there, and what the outcome was for -- as far as incentive comp goes versus the performance, the expected performance now for 2021, that's a big headwind as well. So those are kind of the major elements, Mike.

Michael Baker

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And a lot of pressure there. But so as a follow-up, I think it's fair to say you got back to this 11%, or you will get back to this 11% quicker than you expected. But with all those pressures you just articulated, can we think about ever getting back to the 12% to 13% level that you ran out from, I think, like 2012 to 2019? Or do all those pressures make that not attainable?

Scott Settersten

Analyst

Yes. So we're not providing any long-term guidance today. We'll save that for November at our planned Investor and Analyst Day. But obviously, the trends of the business are quite strong, right? First quarter, way exceeded our expectations. The early read on second quarter is it's going well. Again, you got to keep in mind what we're lapping, right? Last year, in the first quarter, we were on a decelerating trend and then all those stores closed. Second quarter, we're starting to open stores last year in a kind of a wave action, but there was still a lot of requirements and limited capacity, things we were dealing with. And so that's phenomena. That explains the comp guidance, 40 to 50 first half and much more moderated in the second half. So that's what's driving the lower operating margin expectations versus last year. Longer term, we feel like there's a lot of levers. Again, we've talked about this often with investors whether it be things around the e-commerce business with BOPIS and supply chain initiatives, our EFG work in the real estate area and other parts of our business and a lot of other -- Kecia mentioned a lot of efficiency work that's underway right now under the EFG umbrella gives us a lot of optimism for longer-term operating margin improvements.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital Markets.

Anthony Chukumba

Analyst

Let me add my congratulations to Mary as well, though I'm sure I'll see you walking your daughters in the neighborhood. So glad...

Mary Dillon

Analyst

That's right, Anthony, thank you.

Anthony Chukumba

Analyst

So my question, just a quick clarification. If I was looking at my notes from the last earnings call and it said that you're going to -- you're planning to open those first Target shops and shops in the fall. And now you're saying late summer. So I just want to make sure I heard that correctly. And if so, just any reason that you were sort of moving up the rollout to the extent that you actually are moving up the rollout date?

David Kimbell

Analyst

Yes. I'd say we're just getting a little more specific. We've been kind of talking in general terms previously and now a bit more specific in late summer. I'll say we're really excited about it. And I guess I'd ask Kecia to just give a quick update. Kecia, as I think was mentioned in the call, is leading our Target initiative, and we're very excited about the opportunity. Kecia, do you want to give where we are on that?

Kecia Steelman

Analyst

Yes. Absolutely. What's been so exciting is that it's been highly collaborative with the Target team and we've got a cross-functional team that's hard at work to bring the Ulta Beauty at Target concept to life. We've crossed some critical milestones. We've built the joint project plan. Our fulfillment plans are all completed. Brand selections and store selections for this first wave are all done. We're finalizing our IT requirements, our training of our Target team members and the joint marketing strategies. But we're on track to deliver and launch this at the end of late summer, and we're really looking forward to this coming to life and having our guests see what this is all going to bring to play for Target and Ulta Beauty together. To the 90 million loyalty members of Target and 32 million of ours, I just think that the ecosystem that this is going to deliver for the world of beauty is going to be second to none.

Operator

Operator

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call over to Dave Kimbell for closing remarks.

David Kimbell

Analyst

Great. Thank you all for joining us today. Fiscal 2021 is off to a great start, and I want to close by thanking the entire Ulta Beauty team for their collective efforts to support the business and to meaningfully engage with our guests at every touch point. Our team is the secret to our success, and I'm so grateful for their impact, particularly during these disrupted times. I also want to thank our brand partners for their continued support as we navigate the dynamic operating environment. We are encouraged by the momentum we're seeing in the business and excited about our opportunity as consumers gain confidence and engage in the new normal. While the sequence and sustainability of demand remains difficult to predict, our teams are prepared and actively engaged to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. We remain very excited about the opportunity for Ulta Beauty to continue leading the beauty category recovery and we look forward to speaking with all of you again in August when we report our second quarter results. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.