Douglas Cifu
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open
Yes, that’s a great question. And the answer is you sort of almost gave the answer. It really varies by product and asset class and then within the product and asset class, what the trading strategy is. So I’ll give simple examples and you know the firm, we talked about this publically. When you’re trading a single object and just trying to be a two-sided market maker with respect to single object, whether it’s share of JPMorgan, or whether it’s a spot crude contract, or whatever it is that we do around the world, sharp volatility, obviously in that situation could be a challenge. You’re posting bids and offers and if there are sharp sudden moves, you’re going to get swept and our risk controls can, as you know very well will kick in and we’re not going to sit there and hold the position and hope for mean reversion, right? It’s just not what we do. We’re not a hope and pray type of firm. So that can be a challenge. That type of volatility where you’ve got sharp moves, however, where you’re trading a one-to-one strategy, where you’re trading a future against an ETF, or ETF even against the components, you will see opportunities, because there’s price dislocations. And what we do is as a market makers, obviously harmonized prices across clearinghouses, asset classes, you know the story very well. So that type of volatility could be beneficial to an ETF market-making strategy, for example. In commodities and in crude, in particular, where you’re trying to trade or you’re trying to provide liquidity, if you will, across a curve that will be a year or two, and some cases three, depending upon the product. We go pretty far out the curve as a market maker. When you’ve got a steepening of the curve and you’ve got volatility, which means that prices between spot and next month, if you will, going out the curve have widened, that makes it more difficult to try to be a market maker in that particular curve. It doesn’t mean, we don’t make money. But it means our capture rate with respect to that product in that asset class will decrease. So it could decrease by almost two times depending upon what the steepest of the curve looks like, because as a market-marker, you need to be in the game. So did we make money, being a market maker in crude products in the fourth quarter? Of course, we did. We make as much money now. So our capture rate went down in that particular instance, and that has a magnifying effect on this category, commodities, because obviously what we do in crude and Brent and WTI around the globe is a significant portion of that category. So I hope I answered the question, I tried to be as specific as I could.