Howard Atkins
Analyst · Sanford Bernstein
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. My remarks will follow the slide presentation, included in the quarterly supplement that's available on the Wells Fargo Investor Relations website. I've got a lot of ground to cover this morning. As shown on the Slide labeled Fourth Quarter Overview, I'd like to organize my remarks around five key areas. First, our earnings were once again very strong, a record $3.4 billion in the fourth quarter. Perhaps more important was the high quality of our results with broad-based revenue growth across a large number of our 80-plus businesses, and acceleration of checking and savings account deposit growth. Now loan growth in total and in loan portfolios other than the non-strategic portfolio, which we've been running off. Second, we had a significant improvement in credit quality in the quarter, with nonperforming loans and nonperforming assets now down this quarter and net charge-offs down once again after having peaked over a year ago. In terms of mortgage securitization, now we continue to experience declining repurchase demands, outstanding demands in total are only about $2.1 billion right now, and we consider the $1.3 billion reserve as of 12/31/2010 to be adequate given what we are seeing from investors. On a regular form, I'll spend some time discussing the actual Q4 impacts, as well as our evolving cost estimates and how we are thinking about the issues here. And on capital, we had a 12% annualized internal capital generation in the fourth quarter. Capital ratios are higher than they've ever been in terms of Basel III, Tier 1 common, we had approximately a 7% ratio and our objective of course is to build Tier 1 common, while at the same returning capital to shareholders at a more normal level. On Slide 3, you can see our earnings have been very strong every quarter since the merger with Wachovia. We earned a total of $24.6 billion over the past eight quarters, including the record $3.4 billion earned in the fourth quarter, which represents a 15% return on tangible common. Our earnings increased 9% linked quarter annualized and 21% year-over-year, producing a $0.61 earnings per share in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, a year ago, our EPS was $0.08 a share, but that reflected the $0.47 reduction for the TARP preferred stock dividend, including the redemption of TARP in the fourth quarter of 2009. Apart from TARP, our EPS was up 11% year-over-year on a 10% larger base of diluted average shares outstanding. Now, there were a number of items in the fourth quarter that affected revenue and earnings, and demonstrate the quality of our results. As you can see on Slide 4, I'd like to go over some of these in some detail. First, the full quarter revenue impact from REG E was $431 million pretax in the quarter, up $51 million from the third quarter. And if you remember, the changes here started in the middle of the third quarter. As more customers opt in and we make product changes, we expect this revenue impact to diminish progressively over the next two years, and I'll have more to say about that in a moment. We continue to earn income on our PCI commercial loans that were sold at gains or otherwise favorably resolved. We had $99 million of PCI loan resolution income in the quarter, down $103 million from the third quarter. Given the fact that we marked the Wachovia Loan portfolio at the widest credit spreads in the cycle, and given the success we've had in resolving problem loans, loan resolution income has actually averaged about $186 million in the eight quarters since the merger, and we see some additional potential for additional resolution income as the economy and markets improve but of course, with fewer loans to work out and hard to predict exactly when that may occur. We had equity gains of $317 million in the quarter compared with $131 million in the third quarter. Now this is a more regular source of earnings for our company. We've averaged about $195 million of gains in the past four quarters largely from the private equity portfolio and given the relatively buoyant stock market, there’s some potential for additional gains going forward here. We had $268 million of bond losses, almost all due to the sale of our lowest yielding securities, which we repositioned at higher rates prevailing at quarter-end and early first quarter. This offset almost all of the equity gains in the quarter. Merger integration expenses totaled $534 million, up $58 million from the third quarter. And if you remember, we said that the fourth quarter of 2010 and first quarter of 2011 would be the peak quarters roughly in terms of the integration. These expenses, of course, will go away after we finish the integration in late 2011 and early 2012. In the quarter, we made a $400 million charitable contribution to the Wells Fargo Foundation. We typically contribute about 1% of annual earnings each year to the foundation, so the fourth quarter contribution covers three full years of estimated funding and estimated expenses for the foundation. We typically have higher expenses in the last quarter of each year. If you look at the advertising, travel and equipment expenses in the quarter, which is where most of the seasonality occurs, Q4 was higher than Q3 by over $300 million. Foreclosed asset expense was $452 million, up $86 million from the third quarter. These costs will remain elevated in the near-term before declining as problem assets declined. Next reflecting the improvement in credit quality, we had an $850 million reserve release in the quarter, and we expect additional releases in the future absent significant deterioration in the economy. I'll discuss in a moment some additional items in our mortgage business, including an increase in repurchase reserves, higher foreclosure costs and volume-related expenses in that business. Now while I like to say, our earnings are our earnings, I've noted these particular items on this slide which includes more unders than overs, simply to underscore the very high quality of our earnings in the fourth quarter. Slide 5, our earnings growth in the fourth quarter was driven by two main factors, one of which was the very strong revenue that we had in the quarter. In the next few slides, I'll highlight for you just how strong and just how broad-based our revenue was across products, across segments, across geography and across customers. Given the fact that we operate and cross-sell across 80 some odd different businesses, our quarterly revenue has been relatively diverse in most quarters, but in this quarter particularly so. 2/3 of our businesses generated revenue growth in the quarter, in the aggregate producing 12% linked quarter annualized revenue growth. Over 60% of the company's $21.5 billion in fourth quarter revenue came from businesses that produced double-digit revenue growth. This revenue growth was broad-based across all product lines. We began seeing signs of some loan demand two quarters ago and in the fourth quarter, that translated into an increase in loan outstandings, which were up in 2% in total and up 6% linked quarter annualized in portfolios other than the non-strategic loans we were running off. We've had strong core deposit growth now for many quarters, and in the fourth quarter, checking and savings account growth accelerated to 17% annualized from the prior quarter. As John mentioned, about 90% of our core deposits are now in the form of checking and savings, reflecting the success we've had in gaining, retaining and building household and business relationships. Mortgage originations were up 27%. We had a continued increase in client assets and wealth brokerage and retirement, which were up 12% annualized. Trust and investment fees, which included brokerage and investment banking fees rose 15%. So you can see across many, many product lines very strong growth. On Slide 6. Each of our business segments had a solid quarter. Community Banking earned $2 billion in profits on $13.5 billion in revenue. Core product sales in this business reached $7.1 million sales in the West, up 17% from a year ago and grew at double digits in the East year-over-year. Sales were strong in both consumer and small business and across geographies. We saw a linked quarter, loan growth in auto, private student lending and SBA lending. And as shown on Slide 6, many diverse businesses within the Community Bank had linked quarter double-digit revenue growth. Now global remittance, an interesting one, is an interesting example of the traction we are getting in our revenue growth from the combination with Wachovia. Remittance transaction volume increased 41% to $1.42 billion in 2010. The Global Remittance business is benefiting from revenue synergies with Wachovia, with over 30% of the increase in dollar volume in the fourth quarter coming from Wachovia stores that have converted to Wells Fargo. Now this was a product that was not offered at Wachovia stores prior to the merger. Our Wholesale Banking Group earned $1.6 billion on $5.8 billion in revenue. This business had linked quarter loan growth for the first time since the merger, including loan growth in commercial banking, Commercial Real Estate, asset-backed finance, capital finance, government banking, equipment finance and international. Wholesale banking has grown revenue consistently for many quarters, in fact, many years, as it has gained more customers and cross-sold deeper into its relationships. This revenue growth in the quarter also reflects merger synergies. For example, in investment banking, revenue coming from our commercial customers, that was up 44%, in large part as more of our current relationships use Wells Fargo Securities to underwrite their bond and equity financings. Our Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement business had solid linked quarter revenue growth, up 18%, as client assets grew to $1.3 trillion, up 12% linked quarter annualized. Client demand for managed account relationships continue to be strong as managed account assets grew 30% annualized from the third quarter. Brokerage lines of credit increased 18% annualized. We now have more than 15,000 financial advisors who are increasingly focused on meeting our customers' total financial needs and who originated loans of 50% in this group in 2010. This business is an increasingly important growth business for us and an increasingly important source of cross-sell. On Slide 7, as you can see, the main reason our revenue has been so strong and so consistent is that our business model leads to greater market share and greater share of wallet. In the fourth quarter, retail cross-sell for all households combined was 5.7, up from 5.47 a year ago. Cross-sell was up about 4% in the West, and up even more in the East as Wachovia stores adopt the Wells Fargo sales model. We still have what we think is roughly a 20% revenue growth opportunity in the East simply by increasing cross-sell in the East up to the West cross-sell of 6.14. Importantly, on Slide 7, we show the market share data starting with the first quarter after the merger through the last available quarter. And there are two things I'd point out about the market share data. First, you can see just how much market share we've gained after having put the two companies together at the end of 2008. And second, you can see just how broad-based our market share growth has been in virtually every type of financial services that households or businesses need and want. Before turning to credit quality, I would like to make a few points about the mortgage business on Slide 8. Mortgage banking non-interest income increased $258 million in the fourth quarter. Not coincidentally, we also had approximately $200 million of higher operating expenses in the quarter to process all these originations. An example of our ability to modify capacity and variable expenses up and down as volume ebbs and flows. On Slide 8, for purposes of analysis, we've broken down mortgage fees into component parts, originations and servicing. On the origination side, the total gain on origination activities was $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter, but that included $464 million provided for repurchase reserves, up $94 million from the third quarter. This addition primarily reflected an increase in loss severity projections, even though unresolved repurchased demands are down again in the quarter. The $2.9 billion gain from origination activities was up 27% from the third quarter on a 27% increase in originations. All in, servicing revenue was $240 million in the quarter. I'm often asked where in the income statement we account for higher residential foreclosure costs. And in fact, the present value of projected residential mortgage foreclosure costs is reflected in the MSR valuation. So when foreclosure expenses are projected to rise, the full higher expected costs reduce current period earnings to a reduction in the MSR. As you can see on this slide, we reduced the value of our MSR by $143 million in the fourth quarter for higher projected servicing and foreclosure costs. We review and adjust our servicing and foreclosure cost projections within our MSR valuation each quarter and have been adding to this cost for several quarters now to reflect the current higher cost environment. The ratio of MSRs as a percent of loan serviced for others was 86 basis points, up slightly from 72 basis points in the third quarter, simply due to the higher mortgage rates in the quarter. But we expect we will once again be at the lower end of the piers on this metric. Let me now shift to credit quality starting on Slide 9. In addition to building the franchise, the second key reason our earnings were so strong in the quarter was because credit quality improved significantly. Charge-offs declined again as they have in every quarter since the fourth quarter of 2009 and are now 29% below the peak. We've indicated in the past that given our particular loan portfolio mix, the peak of nonperformers would lag the peak in charge-offs. Nonperforming loans appear now to have peaked and were down $2.1 billion in the fourth quarter, with new inflows dropping significantly and outflows accelerating. Provision expense was $2.99 billion, down $456 million including an $850 million reserve release and reflecting the $256 million quarterly reduction in losses. Absent a significant deterioration in the economy, we expect future reductions in the allowance for loan losses. Our allowance for credit losses stands at $23.5 billion at year end. That's 6.1x quarterly charge-offs. In addition, the PCI nonaccretable difference of $13.4 billion represents about 29.5% of the remaining PCI unpaid principal balance. On Slide 10. Not only were charge-offs down in the quarter, but virtually all of our leading credit metrics point to continued improvement. As I mentioned, nonperforming assets were down linked quarter for the first time since the merger with Wachovia, down 6%. Nonperforming loans declined $2.1 billion from the third quarter, with reductions in C&I, Commercial Real Estate construction and each of the consumer loan categories. Total nonperforming inflows were down 13% and outflows increased 21%. Criticized classified assets were down roughly 10%, apart from some definitional changes, the biggest decline we've had so far in this cycle. We also continue to see a reduction in loans 90-plus days past due and still accruing. We’ve seen the path decline now four consecutive quarters. Commercial loans 90 days or more past due improved significantly from the third quarter, down 40%. And finally, early stage delinquencies declined from the third quarter, quite a positive development actually since fourth quarter is usually a seasonally higher quarter for delinquencies, as you can see from the fourth quarter of 2009. On Slide 11. This improvement in credit quality in large part reflects the success we've had over the last two years and into the fourth quarter, reducing higher risk asset portfolios. On this slide, we showed the decrease in our higher risk nonstrategic portfolios since the merger with Wachovia, which are now down a total of almost $55 billion, or 32% over the past two years. This portfolio has been reduced significantly in the aggregate and in each type of portfolio we have decided to exit. Now while these portfolios do have an interest yield, they are breakeven at best after considering charge-off rates and workout and loan resolution costs. And of course, these loans also tie up a lot of capital. So this portfolio will continue to decline. The PCI portfolio continued to perform better than expected. Over the past two years, we've only had to add about $1.6 billion to the reserves related to PCI loans in the Commercial portfolio, due to improved expected cash flows in the PCI portfolio, largely the Pick-a-Pay portion of that portfolio and also due to commercial loans that have already been resolved. We've released a total of $5.3 billion of nonaccretable difference, with $1.5 billion recognized in earnings since the merger from loan resolutions and $3.7 billion recognized through accretable yield over the life of the loans. Again, this was not a big factor in the fourth quarter results. While the nonaccretable balance has absorbed $22 billion of losses related to PCI loans, we have $13.4 billion of nonaccretable difference remaining, covering, as I said before, 29.5% of the remaining unpaid principal balance. Actual quarterly losses have been declining, and we're $836 million in the fourth quarter on the PCI portfolio compared to a $2.8 billion eight quarter average. In other words, actual quarterly losses on the PCI portfolio are down significantly, which is what you'd expect after working with these assets for two years now. On Slide 12, talk about mortgage securitization. Last quarter, we gave you a lot of detail regarding the quality of our Servicing portfolio and our purchase reserves. Let me provide just a few updates for you this quarter. As you can see on this slide, our Residential Servicing portfolio is predominantly comprised of agency paper, nearly half of the loans in the Servicing portfolio were originated through our retail channels and less than 2% was subprime at origination. The majority of originated or acquired nontraditional product such as Pick-a-Pay, Wells Fargo debt consolidation and home equity is on our balance sheet and, therefore, losses on these loans have been handled through loan loss reserves and PCI nonaccretable, and therefore, have no repurchase risk. Quality of our Servicing portfolio is reflected in our low delinquency and foreclosure rate. As of the end of the third quarter, the most recently available quarter publicly, we continue to have the lowest delinquency and foreclosure rate among large bank peers. Our delinquency and foreclosure rate continued to decline in the fourth quarter and was down at around 8%, which is counter to typical higher fourth quarter seasonality. In fact, we've not seen the delinquency rate improve during the fourth quarter in at least the last 10 years. It's also down significantly from a peak of 8.96% a year ago. Our outstanding agency repurchased demands continued to decrease in the fourth quarter, with both the number and the dollar volume of demands outstanding down nearly 50% from the second quarter peak. Total outstanding agency demands are down to $1.5 billion, and the most problematic vintages in terms of losses continue to be 2006 through 2008. We saw new demands in those vintages drop for the third consecutive quarter in Q4. New non-agency repurchased demands based on loan count have declined now for three consecutive quarters, with only $137 million of repurchases in the fourth quarter. The repurchased demand levels reflect the quality of our non-agency portfolio. In terms of private securitizations in the non-agency portfolio, 70% are jumbo loans, 81% were prime loans at origination, 58% were originated prior to 2006. We have an insignificant amount of Home Equity in this portfolio and approximately 50% of our private securitizations do not have traditional reps and warranties and therefore, by definition are not subject to repurchase risk. Now the segment of the private securitizations where we might have the possibility of higher risk which would be the combination of subprime 2006, 2007 vintages, with reps and warranties and with current LTV's close to 100%, that combination represents only 6% of the total private securitizations, in other words, less than one half of 1% of total securitizations. Let me now touch on regulatory reform on Slide 13 and talk a little bit about Q4 impacts and how we are thinking about the issue more generally. First, on REG E, if you remember, REG E went into effect in the middle of the third quarter, so Q4 was the first full quarter impact. We calculated about a $270 million after-tax impact in the fourth quarter that's very consistent with our prior guidance on the subject. We expect 2011 quarterly averages impacts to decline over time, perhaps into the $215 million to $240 million after-tax range as we benefit from higher opt-in rates and product changes. And now I should mention, we are being very measured in our approach here: First, because we want to make sure that our customers understand all their options and can make an informed choice; and second, because our first priority in the East, at least, is to complete the integration. On the Credit Card Act, if you remember, that also went into effect the third quarter of last year, where we had a $30 million impact and a $50 million impact in the fourth quarter. That, of course, is now already in our run rate. We have a much smaller impact from this act for us than for all of our large peers who have much larger credit card businesses. On FDIC, we expect the FDIC quarterly expenses to increase by about $40 million after tax starting in the second quarter of 2011, since approximately 80% of our total funding is from core customer deposits, a real competitive advantage for us, the FDIC changes will have a much smaller impact on Wells Fargo than on those companies who are more wholesale or more market funded. Now on debit and interchange fees, as John mentioned, this topic is still being debated and we would suggest there's a wide range of potential outcomes, including, obviously, no impact if this regulation is not implemented. Based on the facts as we know currently, a place marker for this would be around $250 million-plus or minus per quarter initially, but I want to emphasize that this is just an approximation and is very, very, very preliminary. We believe there's still a lot of work to be done on this, so we will have to see where this goes, when it goes and indeed, if it goes into effect. Regulatory reform and its impact on the banks and its customers is still a work in progress. Through its direct impact on checking, debit and credit cards, reg reform will clearly place additional costs on the nation's payment system. Some of which will need to be borne in the form of higher fees by the consumers and businesses who benefit from the significant ongoing investment the banking industry makes in maintaining a viable payment system. We believe this is about revenue, though, not simply about fees, and gaining more business and more customers by having the right value proposition across all payment products will be one important part of our response. The second part of our response to reg reform will also be to step up our efforts to be cost competitive in the marketplace. So on Slide 14, let me describe some of the things you can expect on expenses. As I mentioned earlier, we had $533 million of Wachovia merger integration expenses in the fourth quarter. This expense will decline as the integration activities start to wind down in 2011, and there could be some small tailed into the first quarter of 2012. While credit quality continue to improve, we still have higher than normal costs associated with loan resolutions and loss mitigation, including both personnel and foreclosed asset expenses. We expect these expenses will decline moderately in 2011 and then perhaps more significantly. And we provided here again some range of potential expense levels for loan resolution and loss mitigation costs in both 2011 and 2012 compared with the $827 million of actual expense in the fourth quarter of 2010. In the third quarter of 2010, we closed the separate branch network for Wells Fargo Financial, by the way, a very good example of the economies of scale we can achieve with Wachovia, and we expect additional cost saves as the Wells Fargo Financial portfolio is reduced over time. As mentioned earlier, we had a $400 million charitable contribution to the Wells Fargo Foundation in the fourth quarter, covering three years of estimated expenses and funding for the foundation. And our current view is that that will, of course, go to zero in the next two years as a result. As I mentioned, advertising, travel and equipment expenses in the fourth quarter were seasonally higher than average, than the average quarterly run rate, so that will be somewhat lower, all other things constant in 2011 and 2012 than the fourth quarter number that you see. And finally, as we've mentioned before, we are working on a company-wide expense initiative that's focused on process improvements, improving time-to-market, reducing complexity in our product lines and eliminating redundancies, and we'll provide much more comprehensive details on this by the middle of this year. Finally, on Slide 15. Our capital ratios continue to increase in the fourth quarter, driven by strong internal capital generation of $3.5 billion, up 12% annualized. Tier 1 common grew to 8.37%, up 36 basis points from the third quarter. That ratio is well above our average of 7% Tier 1 common from 2001 to 2007. Under the Basel capital proposals, we estimate our Tier 1 common capital ratio at 6.9% in the fourth quarter. Now as we wait to hear from our regulators on our capital plan submission, we remain eager to increase our dividend and hope to eventually, emphasize, eventually return to a more normalized payout ratio of at least 30% and to engage in repurchasing shares in step with continued capital growth. We also expect to redeem those trust-preferred securities that are callable and that would no longer be considered Tier 1 Capital under new regulations. While, of course, all of this is subject to regulatory approval, I would highlight that our capital is very strong. It's been growing steadily through industry-leading internal capital generation. Credit quality has clearly improved, and we have shed significant asset risk now from our balance sheet. So in summary, our fourth quarter continued to demonstrate the company's ability to earn strong and consistent earnings. Our results in the fourth quarter, in our view, were high quality, driven by broad-based revenue growth and significant improvement in credit quality, and our capital position is strong and continued to grow. With that, I'd like to now open up the call for questions.