Timothy Sloan
Analyst · RBC Capital
Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. My remarks will follow the slide presentation included in the quarterly supplement available on the Investor Relations section of the Wells Fargo website. As you have seen from our press release today, we had a very strong quarter. Our record earnings were driven by continued improvement in credit quality, higher sales and deposit growth and lower expenses. These results generated strong returns with our return on asset increasing to 1.23%, the highest in three years, and our ROE, up 103 basis points from the fourth quarter to 11.98%. Liquidity remained very strong, including cash and fed funds' balances, up $13.3 billion from the fourth quarter. And we ended the quarter with our capital ratios at record highs, including our 7.2% Tier 1 common ratio estimate under current Basel III capital proposals. I'm going to highlight the drivers behind these strong results on the call today. Moving to Slide 3. Our first quarter EPS was $0.67, our highest quarterly EPS since the merger. This ties our previous record of $0.67 in the second quarter of 2007 when we had approximately 40% fewer diluted shares outstanding. Revenue in the first quarter of $20.3 billion was down $1.2 billion from the fourth quarter primarily due to lower mortgage banking revenue and lower net interest income. The decline in net interest income reflects 2 fewer days in the quarter and an 11-basis-point decline in the margin. Approximately half of the margin decline was due to a lower level of accelerated income from PCI loan resolutions and securities redemptions, predominantly related to the legacy Wachovia positions, both of which tend to be uneven. The remaining portion of the decline in margin was related to higher levels of lower-yielding cash and short-term investments, which reflects our disciplined interest rate management. Our cash and short-term investments averaged $101 billion and earned a yield of 29 basis points in the first quarter. When thinking about the margin in an improving credit cycle, we believe it is useful to look at risk adjusted NIM. Ours has improved for 4 straight quarters, ending the first quarter at 2.85%, up 10 basis points from the fourth quarter and 60 basis points from a year ago. There were a number of selected items in the first quarter that I'd like to highlight as shown on Slide 4. Merger integration expenses totaled $440 million in the quarter, down $94 million from the fourth quarter and consistent with our prior estimate for 2011 costs. Operating losses were $472 million in the quarter, substantially all from additional litigation accruals for foreclosure-related matters. Incentive compensation and employee benefits, which are seasonally higher in the first quarter, were up $352 million from the fourth quarter. Reflecting continued improvement and credit quality across our consumer and commercial portfolios, we released $1 billion in reserves in the first quarter and would expect additional releases in the future absent significant deterioration in the economy. Finally, our effective tax rate was 29.5% in the quarter, which included the benefit associated with the realization for tax purposes of a previously written-down investment. Currently, our estimated full year 2011 effective tax rate is approximately 32%. Let me now turn to key growth drivers across our diversified model. On Slide 5, you can see that average loans increased $402 million from the fourth quarter driven by commercial loans, which grew for the second consecutive quarter and increased 4% linked quarter annualized. Growth in this portfolio was broad based, including growth in commercial and corporate banking, asset-backed finance, commercial real estate, SBA lending and in international. This growth reflected loans to new customers as well as increased line utilization, both positive signs of continued growth. Average consumer loans declined from the fourth quarter, although the rate of decline has slowed for the past 4 quarters. There was growth in brokerage, private student lending and in auto. Auto dealer services had record originations in the first quarter with average loans up 14% linked quarter annualized. This strong volume enabled us to increase our margins in this business while we continue to benefit from lower charge-offs in delinquencies. While average loans increased slightly from the fourth quarter, period-end loans declined $6.1 billion, reflecting the expected runoff in our nonstrategic portfolios, which declined $6.5 billion in the quarter. We are no longer originating these loans, including legacy Wells Fargo Financial indirect auto, liquidating home equity, legacy Wells Fargo financial debt consolidation, government student loans, Pick-a-Pay mortgages and other PCI loans. Other than these portfolios, our core loan portfolios grew $371 million from the fourth quarter. As you can see on Slide 7, deposit growth was strong again this quarter with average core deposits up $37.7 billion or 5% from a year ago and up modestly from the fourth quarter. Average core deposits were 106% of average loans. Retail core deposits, which exclude wholesale banking and mortgage escrows, had stronger growth, up 7% annualized from the fourth quarter. For the first time since the merger with Wachovia, retail core deposits grew in the Eastern markets as deposit balances are no longer facing the headwinds from the intentional runoff of $117 billion in high-rate Wachovia CDs that have matured over the past 2 years. At the time of the merger, approximately 41% of our retail core deposits in the Eastern markets were in CDs compared with only 17% at the end of the first quarter. These high rate CDs now account for only 2% of our total core deposits. Average checking and savings deposits were $723 billion, up 9% from a year ago and were 91% of average core deposits, up from 88% a year ago. We continue to see strong account growth across our franchise with net retail checking account growth of 7.4%, including 7.9% growth in California, 8.5% growth in North Carolina and 12% growth in Florida. Our ability to generate such strong growth in states throughout our footprint reflects our unrelenting focus on providing industry-leading distribution, convenience and customer service, which benefits our current customers and attracts new customers. Our continued strength in attracting low-cost deposits is reflected in our overall low deposit funding costs of 30 basis points in the first quarter. Turning to noninterest income on Slide 8. The $753 million linked quarter decline in noninterest income in the quarter was almost entirely due to a $741 million decrease in mortgage banking fees. Mortgage fees reflected a $44 billion decline in origination volume in the quarter as higher mortgage rates reduced refi volume. These higher rates also increased the value of our servicing portfolio, with net MSR results of $379 million and the ratio of MSRs to loan service for others at 92 basis points. MSR valuation adjustments included a reduction of $214 million in the first quarter for higher projected servicing and foreclosure costs. It is important to note that factoring in servicing and foreclosure costs in our MSR value is not new for Wells Fargo. In fact, we reduced the value of our MSR by over $1 billion in 2009 and by over $1 billion in 2010 as servicing and foreclosure costs rose. Let me highlight a few other key drivers of fee income this quarter. Service charges on deposit accounts were down 2% linked quarter, due to seasonality, and down 24% from a year ago, due to the impact of Regulation E. The Reg E impact this quarter, along with the estimated 2011 impact from regulatory reform, is in line with estimates we provided last quarter. We continue to refine our estimate of lower debit interchange fees from Dodd-Frank, if implemented, which we now estimate will be approximately $325 million quarterly after-tax but before any offsets. This estimate also reflects the higher debit card transaction volume our consumer and small business customers are generating. Card fees were up 2% from the fourth quarter, which is strong considering the usual seasonality in first quarter results. Year-over-year card fees were up 11% reflecting an 11% increase in debit card volume and a 6% increase in consumer credit card volume driven by new account growth and increased card usage by our existing customers. Trading gains were up 15% from the fourth quarter and 14% from a year ago, reflecting strong sales and trading volume driven primarily by interest rates and commodities trading activity on behalf of our customers. On Slide 9, you'll see that expenses improved in the quarter, down $607 million from the fourth quarter. As I mentioned earlier, expenses in the first quarter included $440 million of merger integration costs, higher operating losses related to a build in our litigation reserves and seasonally higher incentive compensation and employee benefit expenses. We also continued to have higher loan resolution and loss mitigation costs of $792 million this quarter. The lower expenses we had in the first quarter does not yet reflect the benefits we expect to realize from Project Compass, our company-wide effort to reduce core expenses while not compromising future growth opportunities. While Compass is focused on reducing our core fixed cost, our total expenses in any given quarter will depend on many factors, including the variable costs associated with many of our businesses, including residential mortgage originations. Residential mortgage origination is one of the largest variable cost businesses at Wells Fargo, and it is important to consider the impact of expenses, not just revenue, on the bottom line. To manage this variable cost effectively, we utilize a temporary workforce for a portion of our origination activities that we can expand or contract depending on current and expected origination and application volume. In order to ensure a strong customer service and preparedness for rate volatility, we manage these costs carefully, and increases and decreases can lead or lag actual volume. As the graph on Slide 10 indicates, we ramped up production to support demand from the refi boom in the third and fourth quarters of last year. Now we are in the process of resizing the organization to reflect current demand levels as well as -- as we always do in mortgage cycles. This is not new for us. Importantly, expenses can lag changes in volume since we need to provide notice to temporary staff before the end of their assignments with us. As mortgage volumes slowed in the first quarter, we took actions to reduce retail fulfillment staff by over 4,500 people. However, at the end of the quarter, over 2,000 were still on the payroll due to the required notification period. We expect to realize the expense savings from these reductions in the second quarter. Turning to our segments, which starts on Slide 11. Community Banking earned $2.2 billion, up 13% from the fourth quarter, with $12.6 billion in revenue. We continued to sell more products to more customers across our banking footprint, achieving a record combined cross sell of 5.79 products in the first quarter, up from 5.6 a year ago. This growth reflects continued increases in the West with cross-sell reaching a record 6.21 products while the East grew cross-sell from 5.02 a year ago to 5.22 this quarter. Cross-sell improvement reflects record sales, with core product sales up 16% in the West reaching 3 million sales in a single month for the first time ever. We also continued to increase sales in the East by introducing new sales and service practices as well as new products. Let me highlight a few examples. Approximately 33% of households in the West have a Wells Fargo credit card compared with less than 14% in the East. In the first quarter, credit card sales in the East more than doubled from a year ago. In the first quarter, partner referrals in the East that resulted in the sale, including products such as insurance, mortgage and merchant services, were more than 6x a year ago. Wholesale Banking earned $1.7 billion on $5.5 billion in revenues in the first quarter. Loans grew 9% linked quarter annualized with broad-based growth in commercial banking, international, commercial real estate, asset-backed finance, government banking and corporate banking. Loan growth was driven by new customer activity and an increase in line utilization, up 50 basis points from the fourth quarter. Linked quarter revenue was down primarily due to lower loan resolution income in the Wachovia portfolio. This decline was expected since we have already recognized the benefits from the largest loans in that portfolio. Many businesses within Wholesale Banking grew revenue linked quarter by adding new customers and continuing to focus on cross-selling. These included fixed-income sales and trading, equity sales and trading, investment solution, commercial mortgage servicing, equipment finance and real estate capital markets. Let me give you a couple of quick examples of the momentum building in the first quarter. Commercial mortgage servicing won 6 master servicing deals in the first quarter compared with 13 for all of 2010. Wells Fargo Capital Finance arranged and syndicated the largest transaction in their history with a $1.8 billion refinancing for Hertz. Investment banking revenue with corporate and commercial customers increased 68% from the first quarter last year due to attractive capital markets conditions and continued success in selling investment banking products to our wholesale customer base. Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement had a very strong quarter, earning $339 million, up $142 million from the fourth quarter. Revenue was $3.2 billion, up 4% from the fourth quarter. Revenue growth was driven by strong asset base fees with managed account assets up 7%. This growth benefited from the strongest quarterly net client asset flow since the merger. Expenses were down 2% from the fourth quarter resulting in positive operating leverage. Average core deposits were a record $125 billion, up $4 billion from the fourth quarter. WBR results are already benefiting from the systems conversion completed early in the first quarter. Over 15,000 financial advisors in all 50 states are now on one common platform. Loan originations by financial advisors are up 56% from the first quarter 2010. Cross-sell continued to improve to 9.82 products per WBR customer, up from 9.67 products a year ago. Our results this quarter continued to benefit from significant improvement in credit quality as shown on Slide 14. Charge-offs declined again for the fifth consecutive quarter, down $629 million from the fourth quarter and 41% below the fourth quarter 2009 peak. Nonperforming loans declined for the second consecutive quarter, down $1.3 billion from last quarter. Provision expense was $2.2 billion, down $779 million from the fourth quarter, including $1 billion reserve release. Absent a significant deterioration in the economy, we believe future reductions in the allowance -- we can expect future reductions in the allowance for loan losses. The allowance for credit losses was $22.4 billion at the end of the quarter, and we also have $12.9 billion of nonaccretable difference to absorb losses in our PCI portfolio with the nonaccretable difference equal to 29.6% of remaining PCI unpaid principal balance. The key credit metrics highlighted on Slide 15 point to continued improvement. NPAs were down 5% from the fourth quarter, our second straight quarterly decline. Nonperforming loans declined $1.3 billion from the fourth quarter with reductions in commercial and industrial, commercial real estate construction and each of the consumer loan categories. Total nonperforming inflows were down 11% from the fourth quarter. This is a second consecutive quarter of reduced inflows, which is a key driver of our NPA improvement. We had the fifth consecutive quarterly decline in loans 90 days past due and still accruing, and early stage delinquencies also declined from the fourth quarter, the second consecutive quarter of improvement. This improvement in credit quality, in part, reflects the ongoing balance decline in nonstrategic portfolios, down a total of $64 billion or 34% since the merger with Wachovia. The PCI portfolio continued to perform better than expected. Due to improved expected cash flows in this portfolio, largely Pick-a-Pay and resolved commercial loans, we have released a total of $5.5 billion of nonaccretable difference, $1.5 billion of which has been recognized in earnings since the merger from loan resolutions and most of the other $4 billion will be recognized through accretable yield over the life of the loans. This benefit has been partially offset by reserve bills netting to $3.9 billion improvement over original expectations. While the nonaccretable balance has absorbed $28 billion of losses related to PCI loans, we have $12.9 billion of nonaccretable difference remaining to cover 29.6% of remaining PCI unpaid principal balance. As we said at the time of the merger, we wanted to ensure that our portfolio marks were accurate, and we are pleased with the performance so far. As we have done over the last few quarters, we updated the information on our mortgage servicing portfolio as well as our repurchase demands on Slide 17. The delinquency and foreclosure rate continued to decline to 7.22% in the first quarter, the lowest in 2 years and down significantly from a peak of 8.96% in fourth quarter 2009. Once again, based on the most recent publicly available data as of 12/31, our rate was the lowest among large bank peers. We believe these results reflect the relative strength of the Wells Fargo portfolio and the sustained improvement in the industry. Our outstanding agency repurchase demands declined for the third consecutive quarter with the number and dollar volume of demands outstandings down over 50% from the second quarter 2010 peak. The most problematic vintages in terms of losses continue to be 2006 through 2008, but new demands in those vintages have dropped significantly from a year ago. New non-agency repurchase demands based on loan count have declined for 4 consecutive quarters, and we only had $69 million in total non-agency repurchases in the first quarter. Total repurchased losses declined substantially in the first quarter to $331 million, down $175 million or 35% from the fourth quarter as repurchase volume declined. We added $249 million to the repurchase reserve this quarter, down $464 million in the fourth quarter. As John spoke earlier on the call when he addressed the regulatory consent orders and as highlighted on Slide 18, we have already made many improvements to our servicing and foreclosure practices. As we have responded to changes in the housing market and strengthened our servicing practices, we have added over 10,000 team members to our home preservation staff, bringing the total to 16,000 team members. We plan to add or reassign approximately 1,000 additional team members over the next year with much of these costs already reflected in our current MSR value. As we disclosed in last quarter's release, estimating the expenses we will incur to service our portfolio is a routine part of our quarterly MSR valuation process. We reduced the value of our MSR asset by $214 million this quarter due to increased servicing cost and have reduced the asset value by over $1 billion in each of the past 2 years as servicing and foreclosure costs have risen. As shown on Slide 19, capital ratios continue to increase with strong internal capital generation. Tier 1 common grew to 8.9%, up over 60 basis points from the fourth quarter and up over 180 basis points from a year ago. Under current Basel III capital proposals, we estimate our Tier 1 common ratio grew to 7.2% this quarter. Our other capital ratios continued to grow as well with Tier 1 capital increasing to 11.5% and Tier 1 leverage to 9.3%. These ratios will reduce by approximately 30 basis points in the quarter as we called $3.2 billion of Trust Preferred Securities that under regulatory capital guidelines, no longer qualify as capital once we gave notice of redemption. Our capital levels continue to demonstrate the ability of Wells Fargo to generate capital organically and as it relates to Basel III standards, the benefit of our diversified lower risk model relative to our large bank peers. As John mentioned at the start of the call, our strong capital position enabled us to begin to return more capital to our shareholders. We took several actions that were contemplated in the capital plan we submitted to the Federal Reserve, including increasing our quarterly dividend rate to $0.12 a share, which is just the first step toward returning to a more normalized payout ratio of 30% over time. I would also highlight that we not only increased our quarterly rate, we actually paid this higher rate in the first quarter, in full, to our shareholders, and the board has already authorized the same payment for the second quarter dividend. We also increased our share repurchase authority by 200 million shares starting this month -- and starting this month, we began to buy back shares. We also expect to call additional Trust Preferred Securities that will no longer count as Tier 1 capital under both Dodd-Frank and Basel III. In summary, we had a very strong first quarter. We are very pleased with our record earnings, reflecting growth across our businesses. The strength of our franchise is reflected in the continuing growth in deposits and high-quality loan originations and deepening customer relationships with record cross-sell. The quality of our loan portfolios resulted in continued reductions in charge-offs, NPAs and early stage delinquencies across our portfolios. Internal capital generation remained strong, enabling us to return more capital to our shareholders. Liquidity remains at a very high level. We believe that our franchise remains very well positioned for the future. I'd like to now open the call up for questions.