David Rosenthal
Analyst · Benchmark
Good morning, and welcome to Exxon Mobil's Third Quarter Earnings Call and Webcast. The focus of this call is Exxon Mobil's financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2010. We will refer to the slides that are available through the Investor section of our website. Before we go further, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement shown on Slide 2. Statements of future events or conditions are forward-looking statements. Actual results, including resource recoveries, volume growth and project outcomes, could differ materially due to factors I discussed and factors noted in our SEC filings. Please see Factors Affecting Future Results and the Form 8-K we furnished this morning, which are available through the Investors Section of our website. Please also see the Frequently Used Terms and the 2009 financial and operating review on our website. This material defines key terms I will use today and shows Exxon Mobil's net interest in specific projects. Moving to Slide 3, we have provided an overview of some of the external factors impacting third quarter results. We continue to see the effects of mixed economic activity, with ongoing uncertainty in the United States and Europe, offset in part by a stronger growth in the developing world, mainly in the Asia-Pacific and Latin American regions. The pace of the global economic recovery and the resulting near-term supply and demand balances have been impacted by these effects. Crude oil prices remained well above levels of a year ago. Natural gas prices and Downstream margins have also shown improvement relative to 2009. Chemical margins have improved relative to last year, but have been negatively impacted by new industry capacity coming online. Now turning to the third quarter financial results, as shown on Slide 4. Exxon Mobil's third quarter 2010 earnings, excluding special items, were $7.4 billion, an increase of $2.6 billion from the third quarter of 2009. Earnings per share, excluding special items were $1.44, up $0.46 from a year ago. The corporation distributed more than $5.2 billion to shareholders in the third quarter through dividends and share purchases to reduce shares outstanding. Of that total, $3 billion was distributed to purchase shares. Share purchases to reduce shares outstanding are expected to increase to $5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010. CapEx in the third quarter was $8.8 billion, up $2.3 billion from 2009, primarily due to the inclusion of XTO activity and unfavorable foreign exchange impacts. We continue to invest in robust projects through the business cycle to help meet global demand for crude oil, natural gas and finished products. Our cash generation remains very strong. At the end of the third quarter, our cash balance was $12 billion and debt was just over $18 billion after reducing the XTO debt assumed in the acquisition by over $3 billion. Moving to Slide 5. Exxon Mobil's earnings, excluding special items, increased $2.6 billion from the third quarter of 2009, reflecting strong results across all business lines. Upstream earnings increased $1.5 billion, driven by higher crude oil and natural gas prices and significant volume growth. The Downstream saw notable improvement over the 2009 third quarter, with an increase in earnings of $835 million, largely due to stronger industry Refining margins. Chemicals continued its solid performance as earnings increased $353 million on stronger margins. Corporate and Financing expenses were $506 million during the quarter, up $23 million versus the third quarter of 2009. As shown on Slide 6, Exxon Mobil's earnings, excluding special items, declined $210 million from the second quarter of 2010. Upstream earnings increased $131 million, primarily due to volume growth. While Downstream earnings were down $60 million due to lower industry margins. Chemical earnings decreased from the second quarter by $139 million on lower commodity margins. Compared with the second quarter of 2010, Corporate and Financing expenses increased by $142 million, mainly due to the impact of retiring a portion of XTO's long term debt. Moving next to the Upstream results on Slide 8. During the quarter, Exxon Mobil began production from the Odoptu field, the latest development phase of the Sakhalin-1 project in far eastern Russia. This region is one of the most challenging sub-arctic environments in the world. The project is performing well and current production is approximately 50,000 barrels of oil per day. Employing world-class extended rig drilling, the project started up on schedule and within development cost expectations. Since start up of the first phase at Chayvo in 2005, the Sakhalin-1 project has produced over 270 million barrels of oil for export to world markets. Moving to the United States, our LNG terminal at Golden Pass on the Texas Gulf Coast recently received a commissioning cargo. Once commissioning activities are complete, the start up of this terminal will represent the final stage of the integrated project between Exxon Mobil and Qatar Petroleum that includes the entire LNG supply chain, production, liquefaction, LNG ships and LNG receiving terminals. Our four trains in Qatar with annual capacity of 7.8 million metric tons each are all running at capacity. And our Al Khaleej Gas Phase 2 domestic gas project continues to benefit from strong local demand. These facilities are well positioned to help meet the growing global gas demand in Asia, Europe and the United States. Moving to Slide 9. Exxon Mobil continues to make good progress in Iraq. We have completed our six-month contract milestones, including submission of the rehabilitation plant and the work program and budget. We have awarded contracts for well work over operations, camp refurbishment and offices. And recently commenced well work and tie-in activities. We remain on our original timetable for execution and production ramp-up. Moving to Slide 10. The initial development of our Kearl Oil Sands Project in Canada is on schedule to commence operations by year end 2012, with construction now approximately 25% complete. Our original plan developed Kearl in three phases to produce more than 300,000 barrels of oil per day. However, by leveraging recent learnings, we reconfigured the project include debottlenecking and expansion phases, which will increase production to the regulatory limit of approximately 345,000 barrels per day. We expect the spending profile early in the project to be higher as a result of revisions to comply with the changing regulatory environments and specific sites conditions, with full lease development still yielding attractive unit development costs. We also continued to progress our global portfolio of high-quality liquids projects. Slide 11 provides an update on several of these projects. At Hibernia, the south extension project received approval for the development plan. The southern extension will be produced using the current Hibernia gravity base structure facility that will require additional drilling to access the resource. The plan is to drill production wells from the Hibernia platform and water injection wells from a combination of platform and subsea drilling. Platform drilling for the southern extension unit is currently planned to begin in late 2011 or early 2012. The Hebron Project is progressing and first oil is anticipated before the end of 2017. We recently awarded our front-end engineering and design contract for the top sides and plan to award the gravity base structure contract before the end of the year. In addition, we continue to progress a number of worldwide oil drilling programs. For example, we have recommenced drilling on our Ringhorne Platform in Norway, and have an ongoing program at Barrow in the U.K. sector of the North Sea. We have also ongoing programs in Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Angola, Canada and the United States. Turning now to our unconventional portfolio and starting on Slide 12. The ongoing integration of XTO is progressing well and the transfer of existing technology and experience will provide significant benefits. As an example, we are progressing consolidation of unconventional activities to leverage XTO's experience and operational capabilities in place such as the Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Marcellus. During the quarter, Exxon Mobil finalized a merger agreement with Ellora Energy. This acquisition has increased our position in the attractive Haynesville Bossier plays by 46,000 acres and added current production and pipeline capacity. In addition, our gas marketing team is working with XTO to optimize shipping, processing and marketing activities across our United States portfolio. We are also capturing reverse integration benefits in legacy Exxon Mobil operations both in the United States and overseas. Recently, a team from XTO shared best practices to optimize our evaluation and development planning activities in Canada, Indonesia and Germany. XTO brings a rich data set including thousands of core samples and an extensive fuel testing database, which our research lab will leverage to further our proprietary shale research. We also continued to see low attrition rates. Overall, we are very pleased with how the XTO integration is proceeding and the potential benefits we see over the long term. Moving to Slide 13. In Canada, the Horn River Basin is a world-class Devonian shale gas resource that is currently in the evaluation stage. We hold over 300,000 net acres and are one of the largest net acreage holders in the basin. In the 2009, 2010 winter dealing season, we drilled eight vertical wells and two horizontal wells. Completion and testing operations were completed on the two horizontal wells in August of this year. Five wells are planned for the next drilling season which will begin in late 2010 or early 2011. Additionally, we completed the 2009, 2010 non-operating drilling program and testing operations are currently underway. Moving to Slide 14. In Europe, we have commenced drilling our first coal bed methane well in Germany, and are implementing a work program to evaluate the shale gas and coal bed methane potential of our acreage. In Indonesia, we hold respective coal bed methane acreage in the Barito Basin totaling approximately 290,000 net acres. We plan to conduct pilot tests to evaluate the viability of Indonesian coal bed methane as a gas resource and expect to initiate exploration drilling in December of 2010, followed by pilot testing in the first half of 2011. We have drilled our fourth exploration well in the deepwater Block SC 56 in the Sulu Sea in the Philippines and have discovered natural gas. We have now encountered natural gas in three of the four wells drilled to date and are analyzing data from all the wells to determine future plans. Turning now to the Upstream operating results and starting on Slide 15. Upstream earnings in the third quarter were $5.5 billion, up $1.5 billion from the third quarter of 2009. Upstream after-tax earnings per barrel were $13.34. As you will see in the 10-Q, which will be filed next week, third quarter upstream earnings included a positive $150 million contribution from XTO's operations. Higher crude oil and natural gas realizations increased Upstream earnings by over $1 billion. Worldwide, crude oil realizations were up almost $8 a barrel and natural gas realizations were up early $0.70 per 1,000 cubic feet from the third quarter of 2009. Earnings further increased by $270 million due to higher volume and mix effects, driven by project volumes in Qatar and the addition of XTO, partly offset by net field decline. All other effects increased earnings by $150 million, primarily due to favorable tax items. Moving to Slide 16. Oil equivalent volumes increased 21% from the third quarter of last year. Entitlement volume effects, including price and spend impacts and PSC net interest reductions, decreased volumes by 21,000 barrels per day, while lower OPEC quota effects increased volumes by 31,000 barrels per day. Divestments reduced volumes by 1,000 barrels a day. Excluding the impact of entitlement effects, OPEC quotas and divestments, production was up 750,000 barrels per day or just over 20%, with the addition of XTO volumes and project ramp ups in Qatar partly offset by net field decline. Liquids production increased 86,000 barrels per day or nearly 4% from the third quarter of last year as project ramp ups in Qatar and the addition of XTO volumes more than offset net field decline. Gas volumes increased over 4 billion cubic feet per day or about 50% from the third quarter of 2009, driven by Qatar and XTO. Turning now to the sequential comparison and starting on Slide 17. Versus the second quarter of 2010, Upstream earnings increased about $130 million. Realizations increased earnings by $90 million, and stronger gas realizations in Europe and Qatar were partly offset by lower global crude oil realizations. Higher volume and mix effects increased earnings by $160 million, driven by lower maintenance activities and project ramp ups in Qatar and the addition of XTO. This was partly offset by a decline in seasonally lower natural gas demand in Europe. All other items decreased earnings by $120 million due primarily to unfavorable foreign exchange impacts. Moving to Slide 18. Oil equivalent volumes increased over 11% from the second quarter of 2010. Entitlement volume effects, including price and spend impacts and PSC net interest reductions, decreased volumes by 1,000 barrels per day, while lower OPEC quota effects increased volumes by 4,000 barrels per day. Divestments reduced volumes by 1,000 barrels per day. Excluding the impact of entitlement effects, OPEC quotas and divestments, production was up 455,000 barrels per day or just over 11%. Lower maintenance activities and project ramp ups in Qatar and the addition of XTO volumes more than offset decline in seasonally lower demand in Europe. Liquids production increased 96,000 barrels per day or just over 4%. And natural gas production increased over 2 billion cubic feet per day or about 22%. For further data on regional volumes, please refer to the press release and the IR supplement. Moving now to the Downstream and starting on Slide 20. In Refining, we continue to progress our multi-year program of global investments targeted at increasing the supply of lower sulfur motor fuels. We recently commissioned facilities at our Baytown, Texas and Baton Rouge, Louisiana refineries which will increase lower sulfur diesel supply in the United States. Our investments in hydrotreating facilities at our Antwerp, Belgium refinery are nearing completion. And finally, construction has commenced at our Sriracha, Thailand refinery to produce lower sulfur diesel and gasoline. As shown on Slide 21, earlier this month, our Lubricants business announced a multi-year sponsorship agreement with two-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion, Tony Stewart in Stewart-Haas Racing beginning in 2011. The new agreement allows Exxon Mobil to build on Mobil 1's official motor oil of NASCAR designation, and shows our ongoing commitment to NASCAR. It also illustrates Mobil 1's lubricant technology leadership, while supporting continued market growth. Mobil 1's association with NASCAR demonstrates Exxon Mobil's outstanding product performance under extreme driving conditions, and showcases the engine protection and fuel economy our technology delivers to both NASCAR drivers and race fans. Turning now to the Downstream operating results starting on Slide 22. Downstream earnings in the third quarter were $1.2 billion, up $840 million from the third quarter of 2009. Higher industry Refining margins partly offset by lower marketing margins, increased earnings by $300 million. Volume and mix effects increased earnings by $150 million, including the benefits from our Refining optimization efforts. Other factors increased earnings by $390 million, mainly due to gains on asset sales and positive foreign exchange impacts. Moving to Slide 23. Sequentially, third quarter Downstream earnings decreased by $60 million. Lower margins decreased earnings by $390 million, reflecting weaker industry Refining and marketing margins. Volume and mix effects increased earnings by $110 million, largely due to lower plant maintenance activity. Other factors increased earnings by $220 million, including favorable foreign exchange effects. Turning now to our Chemical business and starting on Slide 25. During the quarter, Exxon Mobil continued to progress the expansion of our integrated Chemical and Refining complex in Singapore. The expanded steam cracker will use Exxon Mobil's state-of-the-art proprietary technology to achieve substantial feed flexibility and increase energy efficiency. In addition, the expanded complex will produce a range of premium products to capture demand growth in Asia. The expansion will add over 2.5 million metric tons of capacity per year to the existing site. The anticipated mechanical completion and start-up activities will be phased in beginning later this year and will continue through 2011. Additionally, as we highlight on Slide 26, the third quarter included significant scheduled maintenance activities and plant improvements as more than 50% of our planned 2010 turnarounds worldwide were initiated this quarter. As an example, our facility in Kawasaki, Japan doubled its capability to produce lighter feedstocks, which will improve its competitiveness across broader market conditions. These planned maintenance activities play a pivotal role in our commitment to operational excellence. In addition, we continued to use these scheduled downtimes to incorporate improvements that help extend our leadership in areas such as energy efficiency and feedstock flexibility. Turning now to the Chemical operating results and starting on Slide 27. Third quarter Chemical earnings were $1.2 billion, up $350 million from the third quarter of 2009. Stronger margins improved earnings by $370 million, driven by continued strong feedstock advantage and higher realizations. Volume and mix effects increased earnings by $50 million. Volumes increased 3%, reflecting the Fuji on startup, as well as continued recovery from the depressed demand levels seen in 2009. Other effects decreased earnings by a total of $70 million. While we manage our Downstream and Chemical businesses separately, we continue to capture benefits from the unique integration and optimization of these businesses. Our combined third quarter earnings were $2.4 billion, up $1.2 billion from third quarter 2009, reflecting the competitive advantage of our integrated Downstream and Chemical business model. Moving to Slide 28. Sequentially, third quarter Chemical earnings decreased by $140 million. Lower margins decreased earnings by $220 million, especially in Asia, with the start up of new industry capacity. Positive volume and mix effects increased earnings by $60 million. Other effects increased earnings by $20 million. Moving to Slide 30. Exxon Mobil's third quarter earnings and operating performance were strong and reflect the ability of our business model and company strengths to deliver superior results. We maintained a continuous focus on operational excellence and improving upon our industry-leading safety performance. We continued the successful execution of our long term investment plan, and we are moving forward on the flawless integration of XTO's world-class organization into our existing portfolio of high-quality assets. Our performance in the quarter includes the benefit of strong project and facility uptime in all of our business segments, providing further evidence of our disciplined and consistent approach across all of our business lines. With our unparalleled financial strength, Exxon Mobil remains well positioned to deliver on our plans. That concludes my prepared remarks. I would now be happy to take you're questions.