Lawrence Zimmerman
Analyst · Barclays Capital
Thank you, Ursula, and good morning. As Ursula commented, we are pleased with fourth quarter results as well as total 2010. We exceeded the commitments we made in October of 2009 at the time of the ACS acquisition announcement. Our 2011 guidance will also exceed those commitments. This was a year of returning to revenue growth, expanding operating margin and earnings, coupled with really good balance sheet performance. We strengthened our hand significantly with the ACS acquisition, which is performing at a very high level. We also strengthened our business model with significant restructuring to align our business for the future. We believe we can build on these achievements going forward and deliver significant shareholder returns. Now let's go to Slide 6, our Technology segment. Technology revenue was flat and up 1% at constant currency and represents $2.8 billion, or 48% of our business, with a segment margin of 11.7%. Overall, good performance with good installs and equipment growth at more sustainable levels, given a tougher prior year compare. Post-sale metrics improved with sequential page growth beyond normal seasonal levels, a good sign for future quarters. Supplies revenue was flat year-over-year at constant currency as fourth quarter 2009 revenue benefited from improving supplies inventories. Strong operating margin despite currency and mix impacting gross margin. Entry, mid-range and high-end also a continued strong growth in color fueled by our strong color portfolio. In 2010, we launched a number of key products, including in the high end, the Color Press 800/1000, which continued to perform extremely well, driving production color demand in an otherwise pressured graphic arts environment. In mid-range, we recently launched multiple products that have leadership quality, productivity and price value. In 2011, we will continue to enhance our mid-range color portfolio. And in entry, we just launched the ColorQube 8570/8870, which refreshes our popular solid ink desktop platform. And we have more plans for solid ink in 2011 as we build on this proprietary technology. With revenue growth of 3% at constant currency for the year and a segment margin over 10%, the Technology segment showed solid performance in 2010, which we expect will continue into 2011. Next slide. The Services segment is comprised of three lines of business: Business Process Outsourcing, Document Outsourcing and Information Technology Outsourcing. Revenue mix for the quarter was about 54% Business Process Outsourcing, 33% Document Outsourcing and 13% IT Outsourcing. On a pro forma basis, total revenue improved and grew 6% at constant currency, driven by BPO, which was up 11% and ITO, which was up 5%. BPO growth was solid across all areas and reflected good new business ramp, as well as increased volumes in the areas such as healthcare, payer and customer care. ITO growth of 5% was driven by new business. We expect continued positive contributions from ITO, given new contract ramping and a strong pipeline. Document Outsourcing was flat at constant currency and benefited from underlying improvement in page volumes and exhibited strong signings of $1 billion. Operating margin of 12% is up half a point and reflects higher revenues, effective portfolio management, as well as savings from restructuring and synergies. Indicators for future revenues remain positive. New business signings were at their second highest level going back to 2007 and grew approximately 10% year-over-year on a trailing 12-month basis. Total signings of $3.6 billion grew 13%, driven by BPO and Document Outsourcing. On a year-over-year basis, we grew our total services pipeline by 23%, including synergies. With a synergy pipeline of over $5 billion, we are pleased with our ability to generate new opportunities for our services offerings. So positive results in both Technology and Services segments. Slide 8. Revenue growth was 3% at constant currency for the fourth quarter and full year. Good growth, or improvement, in all parts of our business. Full year gross profit margin of 34.4% is above the midpoint of our 33% to 35% business model range. This was accomplished while absorbing the negative impact on cost caused by the strengthening of the Japanese yen to the dollar and yen. About a $45 million headwind in the fourth quarter and $60 million in the full year. Using current rates for 2011, we would expect about a $50 million negative effect, which is more weighted towards the first half. With approximately half of our business in services, our focus is on operating margin expansion. Our operating income on a pro forma basis grew $69 million in Q4 and $271 million for the year. This drove a full year margin of 9.6%, which is a one-point improvement over 2009. We finished the year with adjusted EPS in fourth quarter of $0.29, high end of our range, and $0.94 for this year. We continue to differentiate between GAAP earnings and adjusted earnings for guidance and for actuals reporting, in order to give you transparency into the fundamentals of the business. As a reminder, 2010 earnings on an adjusted basis exclude amortization of intangibles; restructuring and asset impairment costs; acquisition-related costs, including direct transaction costs and specifically defined integration costs; and any discrete unusual items. We had $273 million of restructuring in Q4, $83 million above our third quarter estimate. The restructuring supports exiting certain businesses and accelerating the shifts in our business model through more indirect channels, optimizing the infrastructure and services and centralizing support functions, achievement across synergies, such as continued outsourcing to ACS of some back-office functions. The restructuring from 2010 will save us approximately $270 million in 2011 and more than offsets currency and cost headwinds going forward, as well as investments in the business. In 2011, we do not anticipate any further significant restructuring and plan for adjusted earnings to exclude only amortization of intangibles and any discrete unusual items. Next slide. We had a strong cash flow from operations in Q4 of $1.3 billion and $2.7 billion for full year, about $100 million above our $2.6 billion guidance. It was driven by earnings and very good working capital performance, $685 million fourth quarter and $348 million full year source of cash. CapEx was $519 million full year, resulting in $2.2 billion free cash flow, $200 million above our $2 billion guidance. Debt decreased $889 million in fourth quarter and $1.9 billion since the ACS acquisition last February. This performance positions us well to deliver $1 billion to $1.2 billion of available cash in the second half of 2011. One last point. With the strong activity growth this year, our finance receivables and equipment on operating lease grew. And we're at $235 million use of cash in fourth quarter and $159 million used for the full year. This is important, as it is not an actual use of cash because we leverage these assets 7:1. So in an environment of financial asset growth, core cash flow, cash from ops before financial assets is more relevant. In 2011, we expect the financial assets to grow, driven by equipment activity and revenue growth, as well as from an expansion of leasing activities to support Global Imaging. As a result, we will focus on core cash flow and core cash flow less CapEx as our free cash flow measurement. Next slide. Slide 10 expands on our guidance for 2011. We remain on track to reduce debt by mid year to $8 billion, which will put us at a steady-state leverage ratio of approximately 2.3 on total debt and 0.6 on core. Achieving this leverage will allow us to have $1 billion to $1.2 billion of available cash in 2011, and $2 billion by 2012 to return to shareholders. We remain committed to using over 70% of this towards share repurchase, beginning in the second half of 2011. To achieve our $1 billion to $1.2 billion of available cash in 2011, we will need to generate $2.8 billion of core cash flow and $2.2 billion of free core cash flow. Within cash flow, there are a few points I'd like to make relative to the individual lines. Earnings are expected to grow by 15% and drive cash flow. Pension funding will be higher as we account for a lower discount rate and a requirement to move to quarterly contributions. We estimate contributions of approximately $500 million in 2011. Looking beyond 2011, we expect contributions to reduce approximately to $350 million in 2012 and then below $300 million going forward. Lastly, we are planning for working capital to be a use of cash as we continue to see revenue growth. The positive results on revenue in 2011, for both Technology and Services, positions us to achieve 3% to 5% revenue growth in 2011. We are also confident that our actions on costs, coupled with our revenue growth, can drive a point improvement in operating margin. Our EPS guidance is $1.05 to $1.10. So in summary, I can retire with confidence in the future of Xerox. First, I have utmost respect for Ursula and the senior management team. Second, we have an incredibly strong strategy that will sustain Xerox for the long term. Third, we have an advantaged market position in technology and services. And finally, we benefit from a business model that will deliver earnings expansion and cash generation. So it's the right time for me to retire and it's the right time for Luca to step in, bringing to Xerox extensive global experience and a complementary set of operation and financial skills. My thanks to the investment community for your interest and investment in Xerox. I am confident you will continue to be rewarded. And now back to Ursula.