Mark A. Smith
Analyst · Evercore ISI
Yes, they're going to be pretty heavy. They're going to -- I'm not trying to hide from it. They're going to be pretty heavy. These are some of the largest declines we've seen. If you look at the orders in the past 3 or 4 months, they're amongst the weakest 3- or 4-month periods we've had in the last 20 years. That's going to show up in our numbers, but it's going to be -- it's a cyclical business, and it will rebound. And just to reinforce, it's going to be tough. But then when the volumes come back, which they inevitably will, quite when, we can't say we'd expect performance to rebound as well. So hopefully, July is the trough. We started with a spreadsheet. Imagine a spreadsheet in front of you. I'm still old and I use spreadsheets where we've got customer down days by brand, by location. And when we sat here 3 months ago, it was modest for the third quarter, and now it's kind of a sea of red. But we'll come through this period, but the margins will come under pressure. We're not going to hide from that, but there's nothing structural changing. That's what I want investors to leave. If it was something structural, we would tell you, but it's going to be volume based and it's going to be tough. The good news is we've got 2 businesses that are performing at record levels where demand is high. That's what we look for and stronger than they have done in prior cycles. And we expect broadly demand for those businesses to remain stable for the remainder of the year. So I hope that helps a bit. I know it's tough. The reason why we haven't given guidance is, as you can see, we withdrew guidance. It was nothing to do with our performance in the second quarter, but the number of variables out there essentially remain the same from 3 months ago. Yes, we've got more visibility into Q3, and it's much worse than we would have imagined at the start of the year. It's worse than we would have imagined 3 months ago, but we hope this is the bottoming period and then we're moving on. And hopefully, the industry is set up for a better 2026, and we are well positioned with strong position in the markets, good relationships with excellent customers. So we look forward to that. But yes, this is going to be one of those tougher periods.