Eric Brown
Analyst · Sterne Agee
Thank you, John. Q2 results exceeded our expectations for both non-GAAP revenue and non-GAAP EPS. Non-GAAP revenue of $884 million reflects our efforts to build Digital revenue and drive Packaged Good hits, with notable contributions from the worldwide launch of FIFA 11 and strong catalog sales. Combined with higher gross margins and delayed expense phasing, Q2 revenue upside translated to non-GAAP EPS of $0.10, which was better than our expectations of a non-GAAP loss of $0.15 to $0.10 per share for the quarter. Q2 non-GAAP net revenue is $884 million, down 23% year-over-year as expected on fewer titles. On a GAAP basis, net revenue was $631 million. Non-GAAP revenue was down on a lighter title schedule compared to Q2 last year, which had nine titles, including The Beatles: Rock Band and Need for Speed SHIFT in its launch schedule. Q2 GAAP net revenue of $631 million was down by 20% year-over-year. The effect of foreign exchange rates on non-GAAP revenue year-over-year was an adverse impact of $23 million this quarter. Q2 non-GAAP gross profit margin was 59.2% compared to 48.4% a year ago due to lower distribution revenues, a higher mix of EA-owned catalog titles and a greater percentage of Digital revenues at higher margins. On a GAAP basis, gross profit margin was 42.5% versus 24.7% a year ago. Q2 non-GAAP operating income was $39 million versus non-GAAP operating income of $19 million a year ago. On a GAAP basis, operating loss was $252 million versus an operating loss of $417 million a year ago. Non-GAAP earnings per share was $0.10 versus $0.06 a year ago. GAAP diluted loss per share was $0.61 versus a diluted loss per share of $1.21 a year ago. Headcount. We ended the quarter with 7,820 employees versus 8,829 a year ago and 7,758 in Q1 fiscal '11. 22% of our employees are now in low-cost locations. Cash flow from operations this quarter totaled negative $134 million versus positive $6 million a year ago. Our trailing 12-month operating cash flow has increased significantly, growing from $105 million in the 12 months ended Q2 last year to $192 million in the 12 months ended Q2 fiscal '11. At the same time, capital expenditures have declined, excluding the purchase of our headquarters facility. This has led to an increase in free cash flow from $19 million to $131 million in the 12 months just ended. EA remains on track to generate $250 million to $300 million in operating cash flow this year. EA has approximately $5 per share in cash, short-term investments and marketable securities. Inventory levels were well managed in the quarter and fell to $155 million from $250 million in the prior year. We are carrying significantly less distribution-related inventory compared to last year. Reserves for sales returns and allowances as a percentage of trailing six-month non-GAAP net revenue were 11%, up from 10% a year ago and are down on a nine-month basis to 7% from 8% last year. Overall, the Worldwide Interactive Entertainment segment, inclusive of Packaged Goods and Digital, is flat to up 5% on a calendar year-to-date basis. Consumers are moving towards High-Definition platforms and touch-enabled smartphones and tablets, built on Apple iOS, Google Android and Windows Phone 7. The Digital segment continues to perform well. We estimate that the total digital sector worldwide is growing at 25% to 30% year-over-year on an annualized basis, and that September quarter was also strong. In Packaged Goods, we continue to see strength in the High-Definition console plus PC software market, which we estimate is up 25% year-over-year in the Western world for the quarter and is up approximately 15% calendar year-to-date. This trend plays into our strength given our share position on High-Definition consoles and our market leadership on the PC. Packaged software sales for standard definition and handheld platforms, including the Wii, PlayStation 2, PSP and Nintendo DS, are down, we estimate, by approximately 32% in the quarter and calendar year-to-date. Particular areas of weakness are the Nintendo Wii and the music category where EA has less exposure. In the Western world, Wii software is down 34%, and music is down by 60% year-over-year for the quarter. We estimate that the total Western world Packaged Good software market is down 2% year-over-year for the September quarter and down 4% on a calendar year-to-date basis. We see Europe performing better than North America, with the Europe packaged goods software remaining flat compared to a decrease of 8% for North America. For the September quarter, Europe was up 2% year-over-year, while North America was down 6%. Turning to market share. EA was the number one publisher for the quarter and calendar year-to-date. Our share in Q2 fiscal '11 was 21% overall, with 23% in North America and 20% in Europe. Our calendar year-to-date share was 18% overall, with 19% in North America and 17% in Europe. On a trailing 12-month basis, EA's Western world packaged good share is stable at 18%, with 16% share coming from EA published titles excluding distribution versus 15% a year ago. In Q2, our key frontline packaged goods title were FIFA 11 and Madden NFL 11, which sold in over 6 million and 3 million units in the quarter, respectively. Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 11, Battlefield: Bad Company 2, The Sims 3 and FIFA 10 were strong catalog titles. Our mix of catalog revenue was 16% for Q2. We attribute this continued strength in catalog sales to higher quality and the fact that almost all of our games now have digital-content expansions and feature online multiplayer modes. Q2 non-GAAP Digital revenue increased by 20%, from $138 million to $166 million year-over-year comprising 19% of total revenue this quarter. This is the result of increases in PC digital distribution and console downloadable content. Mobile revenue was down slightly year-over-year at $49 million, with growth in smartphone-related revenue approximately compensating for reduction in feature phone-related revenue. We now have over 80 million registered users in our Nucleus consumer registration system, up from $41 million a year ago. Titles like FIFA, Battlefield: Bad Company 2 and Madden NFL 11 drove registrations in Q2. Approximately 20% of registered users are active on a monthly basis. EA has 49 million monthly active social game users or MAUs, and 8.5 million daily active users or DAUs. Playfish experienced improved monetization on the continued strength of Pet Society, Restaurant City, FIFA Superstars and Madden Superstars. For the 12 months ended Q2 fiscal '11, non-GAAP gross profit margins improved by over seven points, from 50.5% to 57.8% on an improved mix of EA published titles and higher Digital revenue. Trailing 12 months non-GAAP operating margins improved from 1.8% to 3.3%. Before moving into guidance, I would like to comment on two Q3 items. First, EA purchased Chillingo, a leading publisher of iPhone and iPad games. Chillingo publishes two of the top grossing mobile games, Angry Birds and Cut the Rope. The total purchase price was $17 million upfront, with up to another $12 million in earn out over the next three years. Chillingo has the industry-leading mobile publishing platform, which we intend to leverage across EAI. Second, we announced a plan to restructure key licensing and development agreements to improve the long-term profitability of our Packaged Goods business. Consequently, we expect to incur a one-time GAAP charges of up to approximately $180 million in the second half of fiscal '11. Benefits of the restructuring are expected starting in fiscal 2012 and beyond. I'd like to highlight a few points about this restructuring. First, with these actions, there is no significant overall change in the total payments for licenses and contracts. We are, in large part, setting aside rights we won't be using. Net, there is an incremental cash outlay of only $10 million versus existing contractual amounts. Second, there are other contracts that are also being negotiated that do not qualify as part of this restructuring. While we won't discuss the details of any one deal, we are addressing structural issues and contracts that were signed years ago under significantly different market conditions. Third, while some employees are impacted by this restructuring, it is a relatively small number. This is not a major personnel reorganization. We are continuing to hire in selected franchise teams and our digital businesses. Once restructured, we expect that these deals will improve our long-term profitability, provide higher rates of return under current market conditions and provide us with downside protection should there be a league lockout. For full year guidance, we are reaffirming our non-GAAP revenue and EPS ranges for fiscal '11. The first topic I would like to address is why we are keeping full year revenue and EPS guidance unchanged despite $0.20 of non-GAAP EPS over performance in Q2 versus prior guidance. The answer is straightforward. First, we were able to bring the original Q3 launch of FIFA 11 in North America forward into Q2 for a simultaneous release with Europe. This is approximately $0.05 worth of EPS phased from the second half of the year into Q2. Second, we just announced the cancellation of NBA ELITE 11. This is a loss of approximately $0.05 of EPS in the second half of fiscal '11. Third, we're able to delay expenses for marketing, contracted services and other items out of Q2 into the second half of the year. This is approximately negative $0.05 worth of EPS moved from Q2 into the second half. That adds to $0.15, and we carry the remaining $0.05 of Q2 EPS upside into the second half of the year as additional buffer against title level performance in the key peak season. Currency exchange rates remain volatile, and rate changes impact our reported revenue more than non-GAAP EPS, thanks to natural hedges in our business. For the first half of fiscal '11, we did not experience any FX variance for non-GAAP EPS versus our original cross rate assumptions. On a full year basis, our earnings are mostly hedged versus the euro. Our R&D costs will increase if the Canadian dollar strengthens, and we have both revenue and earnings exposure should the British pound weaken. Our updated guidance assumes the following FX rates for the balance of the fiscal year: USD $1.36 to the euro; USD $0.97 to the Canadian dollar; and USD $1.58 to the British pound. If spot rates as of October 29, 2010, persist during the fiscal year, we anticipate no impact to non-GAAP EPS and zero to $10 million benefit to non-GAAP revenue for the year. On a non-GAAP basis, we continue to expect the total of $3.65 billion to $3.9 billion in fiscal '11 revenue. Our packaged goods expectations call for publishing revenue ranging from $2.725 billion to $2.975 billion. Our distribution revenue expectations are for at least $175 million, and we expect approximately $750 million in Digital revenue. The year-over-year dollar growth of $180 million in Digital is divided roughly as follows: approximately 30% from console full games and DLC; approximately 40% from PC and browser full games and DLC; approximately 30% from mobile, game services, subscriptions and advertising. We expect the worldwide market, inclusive of Packaged Goods and Digital, to grow 7% year-over-year in calendar 2010 based on the assumptions that total worldwide Packaged Goods will be down 5% and will be more than offset by Digital growth of approximately 25% to 30%. Analysts and investors should carefully examine the calendar '10 Western Packaged Goods software segment to understand our trends. High-level NPD data does not provide a complete picture of the games industry. Based on our data and industry reports, we expect software for High-Definition platforms, the Xbox 360 and PS3 consoles and the PC, to be up mid-teens for calendar 2010. We expect this growth will be offset by weak sales of packaged goods software for the Wii, PlayStation 2, PSP and NDS. Netting these subsegments results in an overall Packaged Goods decline of 5%, which is more than offset by growth on the Digital side. On a full year basis, our Packaged Goods business, excluding distribution, is expected to be approximately 85% on High-Definition platforms and approximately 15% on standard definition and handheld platform. Our title schedule now assumes 35 titles in the fiscal year versus 36 titles in our original plan. EA plans to release 14 titles in Q3 and eight titles in Q4. Our top 20 titles for fiscal '11 are expected to generate approximately 77% of total non-distribution Packaged Goods revenue. This compares to 76% in fiscal '10. In regards to full year non-GAAP operating expenses, of the approximately $2 billion, we expect 26% to 28% R&D, 18% to 19% marketing sales and 7% G&A for the year as a percent of total revenue. EA is incurring significant development costs for a major new massively multiplayer online game. This game is not expected to ship in fiscal '11. We expected to end fiscal 11 with total headcount of less than 8,000 and continue to move resources from high-cost to low-cost locations. Total low-cost location headcount is expected to increase to 24% by the end of fiscal '11. In terms of non-GAAP EPS, we are maintaining guidance for the full year at $0.50 to $0.70 per share on 334 million diluted shares. This corresponds to a non-GAAP operating income margin of approximately 68%, with approximately $5 million in other income and expense. We are maintaining the EPS range taking into account FIFA 11 North American Q2 launch timing, the cancellation of NBA ELITE 11 in Q3 and second-half expense phasing. On a non-GAAP basis, we are reaffirming our GAAP net revenue guidance of $3.35 billion to $3.6 billion and updating our GAAP EPS guidance to a loss of $0.85 to a loss of $0.55 per share. The GAAP guidance excludes second-half restructuring charges, which we are finalizing. For Q3 fiscal '11, we expect Q3 non-GAAP revenue between $1.375 billion and $1.5 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 to $0.60. This reflects a shift of FIFA 11 North American units from Q3 to Q2 and the cancellation of NBA ELITE 11. Non-GAAP gross profit margin is expected to be approximately 58%. Operating expenses is expected to be approximately $575 million to $590 million, and share count is an estimated 334 million. For Q4 fiscal '11, we expect non-GAAP revenue between $850 million and $975 million, and a non-GAAP EPS of $0.13 to $0.23, based on potential schedule risk at the end of the quarter. Non-GAAP gross profit margin is expected to be approximately 63% to 64%, operating expense is expected to be approximately $480 million to $500 million and share count is an estimated 335 million. This concludes our outlook and guidance. And now I'd like to turn the call over to John Schappert.